The following is from a serial column by Mr. Ryusho Kadota titled "Ukraine," which will determine the "fate" of East Asia in WiLL, a monthly magazine now on sale.
This article is a must-read not only for Japanese citizens but also for people around the world.
The international community is teetering at the crossroads of history over whether the free world can survive.
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the world was caught in a gloomy mood as news of the "fall of Kyiv in three days" spread.
President Vladimir Putin's strategy of threatening to use nuclear weapons and even suggesting the outbreak of World War III caused the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to shrink and successfully blocked any military intervention.
But as of March 16, 20 days into the war, Kyiv is still standing tall. President Zelensky is still transmitting from this historic capital.
The Russian blitzkrieg failed.
In this sense, the postwar order and the free world are holding on for dear life thanks to the last-minute stand of President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.
Conversely, economic sanctions against Russia have caused the ruble to depreciate sharply, and Russian government bonds are on the verge of default.
In this day and age of integrated and internationalized finance and logistics, a united economic sanction from the West will not spare a nation from bankruptcy.
However, the most important thing for Japan to pay attention to is the trend in China.
If Russia's invasion succeeds, China's invasion of Taiwan will be earlier than planned.
It means that the invasion of Japan "beyond" will be accelerated.
The invasion of Japan, the main target of President Xi Jinping's 2013 declaration to "clear away a hundred years of shame and restore the great Chinese nation," will become a reality.
On the day the war began, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, said, "The lesson to be learned from the Ukraine problem is that a weak person should never fight a strong person. Even if a strong person promises to stand behind and support him, don't be tempted by people to gather chestnuts from the fire." he tweeted bluntly and arrogantly.
China's real intention is to say, "Japan should not do anything unnecessary," even if China invades Taiwan.
However, while the Ukrainians were thoroughly fighting the Russian army, the situation suddenly changed when Germany betrayed Putin and began to eliminate SWIFT, a Russian financial institution.
The anti-Russian demonstrations in Germany were also so fierce that Chancellor Scholz was forced to decide that his government would not survive if it continued to be lax in its response to Russia.
This historic shift in policy put China in a difficult position.
The seven-hour meeting in Rome on March 14 between U.S. President Sullivan and China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, a Communist Party's Politburo, illustrates this point.
Two weeks after the war's opening, it was leaking out through various channels that a noticeable change had taken place within the Chinese leadership.
The chants "Is it okay to tune in to Putin as it is?" and "Shouldn't Putin be cut?" became uncontrollable.
The only reason is that Switzerland was in tune with Western economic sanctions.
Due to the Uyghur Genocide issue, the U.S. has imposed economic sanctions such as freezing financial assets.
It is widely known that Chinese VIPs are instead relying on Swiss banks more than ever before.
However, Switzerland, which should be neutral, decided to "join Russia's sanctions" due to Russia's excessive barbarity.
It is an "unthinkable" thing for a key Chinese official to do.
It is not surprising that the key figures were very upset.
It is a common perception among Chinese VIPs that if assets of Switzerland are frozen, it will be the end of the world.
It is said that the foreign assets of the top executives of the Communist Party are not a joke but a unit of "trillion," and if the former member of the highest leadership, Zhou Yongkang, who was dismissed in 2012, is converted into yen. The news that assets worth more than trillion yen worth "145 billion dollars" have been seized is a sensation worldwide.
The loss of assets in astronomical figures is a nightmare for China's top officials.
Conversely, the addition of Switzerland to sanctions has made effective the threat of "If you support Russia or invade Taiwan, it will blow away your assets."
The question is whether Sullivan's aide Yang Jiechi has indicated to him the red line: "If you go this far, it will be the end of China."
The meeting between the two sides is highly classified, and information is unusually tightly controlled for an international conference.
That is how important it is to discuss the issues.
Consensus economic sanctions of Western nations were brought in by Ukrainian resistance.
The Taiwan emergency will be far away if this can be maintained and strengthened.
I cannot help but feel that the Ukrainian people are struggling not only for their homeland but also for us East Asians.
