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Warning Bell from Australia: "If China Takes Control of Taiwan, the U.S. Alliance System Will End" (JBpress) - Yahoo!
(Masato Kimura, International Journalist in London)
[LONDON]
While the situation in Taiwan is tense due to the visit of U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, 64, who calls Japan his "best friend in Asia," told the author at a lecture in London on April 16, "The pressure that China has put on Taiwan in the past two weeks," regarding the timing of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, "is an It shows that they are trying to move everything forward," he noted.
On August 9, Taiwan's military conducted a military exercise that simulated a Chinese landing blocking operation. (Photo shows a live-fire drill using a 155mm howitzer in Pingtung County, southern Taiwan.
Mr. Abbott gave a one-hour lecture titled "Defending the Free World/Ukraine and the Taiwan Situation" at the Henry Jackson Society, a British think tank.
At this time, the author asked, "Various analyzes are flying around as to when China may take some kind of military action against Taiwan, such as the next 18 months, 2025, or 2027. What do you think?" replied:
My understanding is that last year the U.S. analyzed the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as not being possible until the end of this decade (2030). It was because China had determined that its amphibious landing operations and anti-submarine capabilities were not yet sufficient. I don't think the Taiwanese people were that optimistic, but they still didn't think China would take imminent military action," Abbott said.
The continued and intensified pressure for intervention over the past two weeks, including military exercises conducted around Taiwan, indicates that China intends to move all of this forward. Is that today, next month, or next year? No one will know, including the people of Taiwan and the Chinese leadership.
"It is important to start preparing for all possibilities."
But clearly, China is impatient. They are looking for an opportunity. It is more important than ever for the democracies, especially our friends in Taiwan, to start planning and preparing for all possibilities," Abbott stressed.
He replied about how Japan would respond if China invaded Taiwan: "Taiwan is part of the first island chain that connects Kyushu to Borneo."
Both former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (deceased) and LDP Vice President Taro Aso have stated that if China were to invade Taiwan, the situation could develop into an existential crisis that would allow Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defense under security-related laws. What is clear from these statements is that Japan is prepared to deploy the Self-Defense Forces to defend Taiwan."
Regarding India's position as part of the Japan-U.S.-Australia-India Quadrilateral, Abbott said in his speech, "It is Abe's great legacy. It is the most important strategic development. Japan has signaled that it will build up its Self-Defense Forces and can use them to defend Taiwan. We have approached Australia to provide bases for Australian naval vessels and aircraft, and the Japan-Australia agreement allows for the closest potential theater of operations," he said.
Global and regional leaders cannot be left to the United States alone, which is in relative decline.
Japan needs to take its rightful place as the leading democracy in the Western Pacific without unique limitations on its military power.
India needs to emerge as the second democratic superpower. The United Kingdom must make last year's aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth dispatch to the Far East routine," he stressed.
Strategic Ambiguity Can No Longer Guarantee Taiwan's Security
U.S. President Joe Biden said at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo this past May, following an ABC program last August and a town hall event in Baltimore in October, "You did not want to get militarily involved in the Ukrainian conflict. When asked, "If the same situation were to arise, would you be willing to get involved militarily to protect Taiwan?" he immediately replied, "Yes.
When U.S.-China relations were normalized in 1979, the U.S. position on Taiwan was defined in the Taiwan Relations Act.
It specified that the U.S. would provide Taiwan with defensive arms and maintain U.S. capabilities to counter any force that might jeopardize the security of the Taiwanese people or their social and economic systems.
At the same time, however, it does not promise that the United States will always defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The reason successive U.S. presidents have maintained this "strategic ambiguity" was to avoid the risk of the U.S. being drawn into a war with China over Taiwan and deter Taiwan's independence by making Taiwan think that the U.S. "may not intervene by force.
However, with the looming reversal of economic power between the U.S. and China and the rise of China in military capability, there is a growing sense of crisis that Taiwan's security cannot be maintained through "strategic ambiguity.
Abbott said, "To be precise, the current strategic ambiguity fails to make China realize that an attack on Taiwan would be met with a counterattack not only by Taiwan but also by the United States and its allies. Simply changing the rhetoric is dangerous. And if nothing changes, it will encourage China to conclude that the United States has lost its will to maintain the world order," he said, expressing vital concern.
Two New Wars
Regarding Biden's remarks, Abbott told the author, "What he said and what he meant are often two different things. It is interesting to note that on three occasions, Biden made it clear that the U.S. would support the defense of Taiwan and resist any attack on Taiwan. In each case, government officials backtracked their statements. Perhaps Biden did not officially change his policy but sent a slightly stronger signal to Beijing. I want to think so," he said only.
In his speech, Abbott said, "There is a new hot war between dictatorship and democracy in Ukraine. A new cold war between China and democracy is also underway. It will be much more difficult to win the new Cold War than the old one because the U.S. no longer believes it can defeat China as an economic and military superpower. Chinese leaders believe that Western democracies are fading toward the end," he said.
If only Russian President Vladimir Putin would give up, he won't. Suppose we learn any lesson from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which cannot be justified by anything. In that case, weakness is a temptation, and small countries risk being swallowed up by a single government. The best course of action is for the democracies to give Ukraine more powerful weapons and for Ukraine to regain lost territory."
The August 9 attack on the Saky military airport was followed on August 16 by the explosion of an ammunition depot on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula.
Abbott explains that if Putin, backed into a corner by a counterattack by Ukrainian forces, uses tactical nuclear weapons, Ukraine will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Russian troops will fight against the powers of the United States and other NATO members, and the United States and Europe are keeping Putin in check.
■ "Danger on Our Doorstep."
China is building the world's largest navy, maritime police force, and a vast fleet of fishing vessels under military command to create a naval militia.
The world is in worse shape than the war in Ukraine." If China takes control of Taiwan, with or without U.S. resistance, it will end the U.S. alliance system. The U.S.-led world order will end," Abbott warned.
In his book "Danger on Our Doorstep," former Australian Army Major General and current Australian Senator Jim Moran points out that "it is a dangerous illusion to conclude that war is so terrible that it cannot happen, or that the possibility of war is so small that it can be ignored," and then goes on to say that China's role in World War II as a possible He also envisions the possibility that China could launch an invasion in the style of the Normandy landings conducted by the Allied Forces in World War II.
He also mentioned the possibility of a blockade of Taiwan by marine militias and a "beheading" of Taiwan's political leaders, but what Moran sees as the most likely scenario is a surprise attack in the style of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
For example, he said, the Chinese People's Liberation Army would use rocket forces to destroy all U.S. bases and all carrier strike groups in the Western Pacific--the most logical way for China to achieve its objectives.
If China becomes the world's most significant power and the U.S. decides not to fight back, Taiwan, like Hong Kong, will be forced to cooperate with China. Japan, South Korea, and Australia would face a dire choice: fight an overwhelmingly unfavorable war or become China's dependents. To avoid a devastating war, China must be convinced that any attack is worthless and will result in massive retaliation," Abbott said.
