The following is from an article by Kenneth Weinstein, Distinguished Fellow at the Hudson Institute, published in Seiron, a monthly magazine now on sale, titled "A Strategist's Legacy to be Studied.
It is a must-read not only for Japanese citizens but for people around the world.
The emphasis in the text, except for the headline, is mine.
The legacy of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is that he had a strategic eye.
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's legacy (a great point that will discuss for years to come) is that he was a man with a strategic eye.
He clearly foresaw the rise of China and the possibility that the U.S. would no longer be involved in Asia. Thus, he recognized that Japan needed to start building its own security structure and become a major diplomatic player.
After the war, Japanese leaders had been hiding behind multilateralism and alliance management at the United Nations. Still, Abe broke through that state of affairs and propelled Japan into the center of Asia's democracies with a clear strategic perspective.
Forming a "diamond of democracy" with the United States, Australia, and India, he has redrawn the world's strategic map through "The Confluence of the Two Seas."
He also changed the status of Japan.
Instead of being tied to Asia, which China could have dominated, he sought a more expansive region involving the great democracies, working hand in hand to face the Chinese challenge.
I want to compare Abe to former U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
Reagan spent decades learning about the Soviet Union and came to the presidency with a grasp of its strengths and weaknesses.
Once in power, he put his strategic vision into action.
Reagan saw himself as a man on a mission.
Abe was definitely on a mission, too; Abe failed in his first administration.
Physically he was hurt, and emotionally he was hurt by criticism that he had thrown out of power after a short period.
Nevertheless, he put his strategy into action.
Some politicians are in politics to win applause, but Mr. Abe was not the kind of politician I saw.
The first time I met Mr. Abe was in 2003.
From the moment I met him, I was impressed by the seriousness with which he tried to tackle his ideas. He was also a kind man.
I had serious discussions with him about the Japan-U.S. alliance.
When I meet politicians, they either stick to their ideas or read from written memos, but Abe was not that type.
He spent an excessive amount of time learning about international affairs.
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger defined a great leader as one who has a clear vision and can lead people toward a better future, and Abe was just such a person.
He predicted China's growth before U.S. politicians did and worked with China when necessary, not just against it.
The Hudson Institute held a symposium in Tokyo in 2006.
On July 4, then Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe articulated his views in a closed-door session on U.S.-Japan-India relations, which later led to the Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Abe's ideas were initially based partly on the pictures of his grandfather, former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, but he has modified them as times have changed.
A True "Leader of Democracy"
It isn't easy to talk about Mr. Abe's legacy because he was a real person until just before his death.
We met him in May of this year and were scheduled to meet him after the Upper House election in July.
So many people are in tears and unable to face reality because he was such a wonderful man.
When I think of leaders in Japan, certainly Junichiro Koizumi was an influential figure in the international community, but no one else.
What the postwar period has left behind, I think, is a loss of importance of politics and politicians in people's lives.
As a result of the perception that Japan was not as politicized society as the U.S., its leaders were less bold and felt as if they were carrying the legacy of the last war, but Abe was different.
He understood that Japan should and had the right to play a central role in the international community and act as a bridge between the United States and other nations.
Abe did his best by bringing strategic unity between the United States and Japan.
Britain had Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher, but few foreign leaders had that kind of impact on the United States.
Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who unified Germany, was different in that he fundamentally changed American thinking.
It was Abe who accomplished this.
In their meeting in February 2007, President Donald Trump agreed to a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) and went so far as to declare that he would be with Japan, our ally, on North Korea policy.
The FOIP approach was carried over into the Biden administration.
Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and others joined and changed our worldview.
It should not underestimate that it came from the ideas of the Japanese leadership.
Even though the changes in other countries were due to Abe's charm, the FOIP was such a compelling strategic concept, and most importantly, Abe's willingness to do so.
He visited many countries, built relationships, and spoke to the masses to make it a reality.
He also made efforts to communicate the concept to the public at home. It is important.
When you think of a leader of a free society at this time, you probably think of former German Chancellor Angele Merkel, but the French phrase "Après moi le déluge" (After I am gone, come to the flood) applies to describe her. The rest is just a field and a mountain. She had only a tactical point of view.
Merkel shut down nuclear reactors in Germany after the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011.
When she was asked by a young girl on a T.V. program, "Where should we go?" in response to the refugee crisis, she tried to hug the child and was booed by the audience.
She did not want to be hugged by Merkel.
A month later, Merkel accepted more than 10,000 refugees.
She did this under political pressure, which is not what politics should be about.
Merkel's policies allowed refugees to flow into the U.K. and were a distant cause of the U.K.'s exit from the European Union (E.U.).
Merkel also relied on imports from Russia instead of building the natural gas receiving terminal that President Trump demanded.
All of these were significant failures.
Merkel's reputation was damaged when Russia invaded Ukraine.
I think many people worldwide have realized that Abe is the leader of a democratic society.
The FOIP is a vision and a compass rooted in strategic values that guarantee international cooperation and freedom of navigation.
And it is a legacy that the people will uphold for a long time.
Foresight to see the importance of Taiwan
Mr. Abe raised the idea of Japan-U.S.-Taiwan collaboration at a seminar held at the Hudson Institute in October 2000.
He urged Japan to send a higher level of representation than it currently has and that there should be some dialogue, if not government-to-government, between Japan, Taiwan, and the U.S. on regional affairs.
It was an incredibly visionary statement.
At the time, Abe had already mentioned ending Japan's economic malaise, confronting the challenge of China's growing expansionism, and the importance of dual-use military-civilian technology for military purposes.
He had insights based on his strategic eye.
It is rare for an elected politician.
He worked extremely hard, which was partly due to his family background.
Some might characterize him as coming from an aristocratic family, but it was more due to Abe's hard work.
The failure of the first administration may also have had an impact.
However, his illness forced him to resign from the first administration.
He was personally and politically scarred, but he recognized that his mission was critical and essential to Japan and the world.
He could not abandon his future for it.
Mr. Abe was a man of intense determination and a genuinely great man.
Losing him is like a big hole in the ground.
In 2001, Mr. Abe received the Hudson Institute's Herman Cahn Award.
The award, given annually to visionary leaders for their contributions to national security, has consistently honored Americans.
Past recipients include former President Reagan, former Vice President Cheney, and former Secretaries of State Kissinger and Schultz.
That year we honored Mr. Abe, who broke with "tradition" and pushed for reforms to revive Japan.
It was the first time a foreign leader had received the award.
At the award ceremony, Mr. Abe said, "First of all, I shot the so-called first arrow to encourage the Japanese people to be bold enough to be a little more daring in their inward-looking mentality. It was an unprecedented monetary policy," he said.
After the second administration took office, the economy was the first thing it focused on and was indeed a bold risk-taking move.
Mr. Abe changed the interpretation of the Constitution regarding the right to collective self-defense.
His proactive contribution to peace also aligns with the Hudson Institute's goal.
Mr. Abe said at the award ceremony, "Now I understand. I believe that the historical mission given to me is, first of all, to re-energize Japan, to encourage the Japanese people to be more positive, and in so doing, to encourage them to become proud bearers of the banner for active pacifism," he said.
He knew his historical mission.
His idea of positive pacifism is to contribute to the world's security.
It was an excellent speech.
Late last year, former Prime Minister Abe said at a symposium on Taiwan, "The Taiwan crisis is a crisis for Japan.
It is a critical statement and similar to Herman Cahn.
Kahn preached the following in his book as a way to prevent nuclear war.
We must consider what nuclear war would be like and think about civil defense.
It is vital to the security of the United States. We must think about nuclear war at the civilian level to let the public know that we are prepared to fight a nuclear war and convince the Russians to abandon the atomic war.
Abe's statement is the same in that it is crucial to inform the public.
It is dangerous in a democracy for decisions to be made in a vacuum, so to speak, without the public being prepared.
But by speaking of contingencies, Abe demonstrated his respect for the Japanese and deep devotion to the Taiwanese people.
Many people in Taiwan, including President Tsai Ing-wen, expressed their condolences at Abe's passing.
It shows how much he was loved in Taiwan.
As a former prime minister, Mr. Abe knew that his comments would attract attention in Japan.
He knew it was necessary to make the Japanese people aware of the security crisis and deepen their understanding of the need to increase defense spending.
While Taiwan's defense was vital, he also wanted to build a defense structure for Japan, especially in the southwest.
Earlier this year, Abe called for a review of the "strategic ambiguity" that prevents the U.S. government from clarifying whether it would intervene in a Taiwan contingency.
Taiwan's security is of vital importance to Japan, to the free and open Indo-Pacific, to the Philippines, and the defense of the first island chain.
And, of course, for the security of the United States.
There is reason to believe we will intervene. What form that intervention will take will depend on China's actions.
Most important, perhaps, is that President Biden has learned his lesson.
President Biden made it clear to President Putin that he would not intervene in Ukraine and to President Xi Jinping that he would (in the Taiwan crisis).
The U.S. bureaucrats may have disagreed, but he said so three times in his mind.
He learned the lesson that ambiguity is not an option.
Abe warned against ambiguity because any show of weakness would invite aggression.
U.S. policymakers are now rapidly focusing on the Taiwan scenario.
The reality is that even as we are busy dealing with the war in Ukraine, it has become the primary security scenario for our country.
I was pleased that U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, a courageous voice against China's human rights abuses, visited Taiwan on August 2 and 3 and was welcomed by President Tsai and the Legislative Yuan.
The Speaker of the House's visit to Taiwan is important because it signifies a clear message that Taiwan and its thriving democracy are critical to the United States.
The visit had repercussions.
Beijing is using Pelosi's visit as an excuse to expand military exercises around Taiwan.
As the Biden administration built up its military assets in the region, the administration's ham-handed attempt to cancel the visit showed Beijing unnecessary weakness and included Taiwan in the U.S.-China relationship.
We sincerely hope Speaker Pelosi's voting behavior on national security is consistent with her words and actions on Taiwan.
If so, the U.S. could do considerably more for U.S. and Taiwanese security than the budget she voted for in Congress.
Pelosi's visit to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the Japanese government's condemnation of the People's Liberation Army exercises show that the U.S. and Japan are now primarily in agreement on the Taiwan issue.
The broad consensus is that the "Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency," as former Prime Minister Abe pointed out in December 2021.
Abe went on to say of the Taiwan contingency: "It is a Japan-U.S. alliance contingency.
He continues, "It is a Japan-U.S. Alliance contingency. President Xi Jinping must not mistake this perception.
Nuclear sharing will mature the alliance.
The war in Ukraine will not escalate. President Putin has made nuclear threats. Now he is also using the food crisis.
It is clear that Mr. Putin is not looking to expand the war.
It is crucial that we provide Ukraine with all the weapons we can.
Mr. Putin will not use strategic nuclear weapons. Is there a possibility that he will use tactical nuclear weapons? Yes.
He is more likely to use chemical weapons, but they have no advantage on the battlefield.
Also, China will not stand by Putin.
China is learning from what is happening in Ukraine. It has learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it has learned from the Gulf War.
Former Prime Minister Abe argued that Japan should also discuss nuclear sharing, using Ukraine as a lesson.
First, Japan's direction is a choice for the Japanese government and the Japanese people.
I am a proponent of a strong alliance and am opposed to a "no first use" declaration that the U.S. will not use nuclear weapons unless attacked with them.
I welcome the Biden administration's decision to stop short of making such a declaration.
I visited Munich, Germany, at the end of June, and Germany, like Japan, was concerned about a change in the U.S. no-first-use policy.
Nuclear weapons threaten Japan from North Korea and China.
The danger is growing, but North Korea does not have many nuclear warheads, so a nuclear threat by China is the only threat it faces.
While Japan should take more responsibility for its defense, I believe that sharing nuclear weapons would make the alliance more mature.
However, the devil is in the details. In this sense, it should be discussed publicly. That would show the maturity of the alliance relationship.
No longer are we in the old days when Japan pretends not to know whether U.S. nuclear submarines carry nuclear weapons.
In his writings and speeches, Mr. Abe has laid a roadmap for Japan to follow.
We hope that Mr. Abe's legacy will be recognized again and again in Japan.
Strategists, politicians, and journalists have much to learn from his writings and speeches.
There is such depth.
Years of study and analysis are not just about mourning his tragic death.
It is to strengthen Japan in the face of security challenges.
