WSJのビデオを書き下ろしました。まぁ誤字脱字沢山なのは、著作権を保護する為です。英語の分かる方のみ御覧下さい。

コレはWSJのビデオニュースで北朝鮮の核ミサイル問題を取り上げたものです。

正味な話が、このビデオでは、今の「呆け小池婆ァ」に近い「権力呆けのトランプ」が何も出来ず「核クラブ」に北朝鮮が入るのを黙ってみているしか出来ないとの絶望的結論が流れています。

これがアホ臭いのですが、トランプは北朝鮮の核には「必ず潰す」とホザイテイますが「イランのIAEAベースの核開発」も認めないと、こっちの方が力が入っています。

イランの核開発は一応筋を通していたものですが、トランプはアメリカよりユダヤを大事にしているので、その問題も含めて、マティスさんなどが、ロシアでの密約の整理に向かっているようです。

明確に言えるのは、トランプのユダヤゴキブリ娘婿は、低能という点では「絶望の党」並であり「絶望の党」が空中分解して都政を破壊するのが確実なように、トランプがアメリカ・ファーストじゃなく「ユダヤ・金持ちファースト」だと分かると、大問題となるでしょう。

それではお読み下さい。因みにGoogleなどの翻訳では上手く訳しません。

That's not how ICBM are supposed to ignite.
Moving Upstream The North Korea Decoders
It's the most serious problem a nation can face.(Jason Bellini)
An adversary developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles capable of destroying your cities.
But unlike in past crisis.....
The regime of saddam Hussein is being removed from power.
With North Korea the goverment isn't alone in producing intelligence and analyzing i7s meaning.

North Korea long consideered a theat to American national security.
But to many people dismissed as small country with apuzzling and brutal dictator in an economy smaller than that ofu Tulsa, Oklahoma.

For years, Jeffery Lewis and his colleagues at the Middlebury Institute of Internatiional Studies tried to sound the alarm that the North's nuclear missile program was far more sophisticated than most people realized.

Everybody thinks they're a joke,like they 're some kind of incompaetent buffoons.

They don't even have like vegetables in North Korea.

And we were like living in this parallel universe where we kept going like,but they're not buffoons.

Then this summer,the North awoke many to a new reality when it launched an intercontinental Ballistic Missile.

The fact is, this was a game changer.They can reach our mainland now with their ICBM.

I'm actually surprized by what North Korea is doing.

We weren't surprised that they were ready to test the ICBM because I looked at the pictures.

Lewis had already concluded that North Korea had all the pieces in hand to build a long range missile, an ICBM,because he saw it in the photos and the videos of another missile that the North Koreans unveiled this year, the Hwasong-12.

When we looked at the 12,we were like holy crap, that is a pathway to an ICBM.

The missile the North fired in Aucust and September over Japan is case a study in how open source experts,in places like Monterey, Calivornia, and doing the type of work that in the past rarely happened outside of places like Langley, Virginia.

Using photos released by the North Koreans themselves,Lewis and his team calculated the Hwasong-12's size.

So, this truck is imported from Belarus.And so the specifications on this truck are relatively well known,if you know how long the tranporter is and you know the diameter of the missile,you can make a good guess about how long the missile is.

The determined what type of fuel it use.

So, if you can see the weld lines between the bottom and the top tank,I can tell you the volumetric ratio of those two tanks.I can tell you what kind of fuel it is.

They estimated its engine power.You can use aprogram to track brame by frame how quickly that missile accelerates.And at least for this missile,the answer is year, no question about it,we estimated the thrust of that engine at 48 tons.And that was the classified estimate that just leaked.We got the same answer the intelligence community did.

But to figure out how far the 12 could potentially travel,they needed to know its wight.

You see this crane?It's truck with a crane on it.It's a Japanese crane that they imported.

Based on the crane manufacturers specifidations,the missile's center of mass,the angle of the arm, and...

The distance between basically this point and this point.The pyhisical airframe is quite light, even though the missile is quite big.

Which is a big deal. Because this suggests, Lewis says, that the North is constructing its missile components using hightly advanced, computerized machine tools.

A light airframe certainly helps if you want your missile to carry the weight of a nuclear weapon to say the mainland US.

At the end of the day, would you say with a high degree of confidence that they have acompact neuclear weapon that can go on an ICBM.

Cannot understand why this is even aquestion.

We're taling about a missile that carry a warhead successfully reenter and hit the Continental United States.

Yeah,New York, LA.Lewis'team also tried to identify when the North's claims are pure puffery.For example,in Many of 2015,is announced the successful launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine.

That's now how ICBMs are supposed to ignite.It's way too muchi fire.

But Lewis and the team analyzed the footage and figure out that the final two frames of the video show that the missile actually exploded shortly after launch.To mask the failure,the editor apparently cut in video of a Scud missile breaking through the clouds.They also use geolocation and satellite imagery to track day to day changes at the missile strage and test locaitons they've identified.Other patterns they observe concern Mr.Kim himself.

Dave looks at this picture and he says oh I know where he's standing.

Dave, it's a (beeping) tend.He goes oh look up here.Do you see this?(man laughting)

What's thatI don't see anything there.

You see yellow and black and yellow?

Yeah,

All right well,so Dave goes oh I know exactly what that is.

Marker from a north Krean highway tunnel.And then within a matter of 10 minutes And then within a matter of 10 minutes he's able to,using the trees and the landscape figure out exactly where he's standing.Why would it be important to know where he is for that?Part of it, it's just fun.But part of it is that they take his personal security very seiously.And they clearly here aren't.By identifying unintended clues,are you worried that they're gonna get somebody killed?

Yeah,yeah.

I mean, that sucks.

But you know,he's the one who's gonna have him killed, right.

And if he runs a horrible propaganda system where they punish people for making mistakes with death, I can't help that, year.

Not on you.

Coming here to Northern California was Aaron Zitner's idea.

He'd become aregular listener of Mr.Lewis' Arms Control Wonk podcast.

So pictures said it went kaboom.Interesting that we have people who are outside of the intelligence community perse who are taking on the task of informing the public,of informing the pubulic,informing other scholars, and there's almost a community of them that are exchanging infomation, that are checking one another, and getting us to the ultimate question of what are the options for United States and its allies.

That's right and they themselves draw a contrast with the start of the Iraqu war where it wasn't this kind of open source work that could perhaps provide a check on what we were hearing from the goverment.

I think back to the lead up to the Iraq war where we had a really big publick debate.But that was a public debate about classified infomation that we couldn't really see.

There's no question.

There is no doubt Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.

In the lead up to the Iraq War,the public debate relied almost entirely on facts put forth by the Bush administratiion.Now,the open source analysts may help us better understand security threats.But there's a contrast in the infomation when their conclusions don't match those of the government.

So my hope is that if we have better factual infomation in the public debate, that public debate will be better.And we'll make better decisiions.

The North Korean regime has not yet passed the point of no return.

Lewis thinks that the US govenment is wrong,that the North has passed the point of no return,that it already has nuclear weapons.

We want them to give up their weapons.And I think that that's porbably gonna be a pretty short conversation.The conversation he and many of his open source peers now see as unavoidable involve nuclear arms limitations,not the elimination of Mr.Kim's program.

fool tramph:We will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.

The Trump adminisutration maintains that...

lady sopokes:All options are on the table.That hasn't changed.

But has the situation changed?At this point,should preemptive military action be on the table?

megane:I think the door's for a military option are basically closed.

Beyond the risk of the North pummeling Seoul, South Korea with non-nuclear artillery,Lewis' position is based on two assumptions.One, that some of the North's missiles are already armed with nuclear weapons.

megane:This is not a new missile.This is a exersise.Tey're practicing using nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.You can see these kinds of exercise have jumped up.

Two,all of those missiles could be destroyed bebore Mr.Kim could launchi them.

megane:Okay,this is a little weird.

It appears to show one of Mr.Kim's missiles being fueled horizontally, whichi would mean that it could be prepared for launch while hidden in a tunnel.

megane:If you're the guys driving the truck, do you like that?Because you dont't want to be sitting there trying to gas up the missile while the US Air Force is trying to kill you.

Horizontal fueling is no small feat.The missile could easily tip ove while it's being erected.But Lewis says that with the light airframe he thinks they've engineered...it suggests that it's not laugh out loud funny.

skinhead spokes:It might actually be true.We really have to move with a gread deal of uregency on preparing, it necessary, a military option.

So,Lewis believes that even a successful decapitation strike taking out Mr.Kim, wouldn't defuse the nuclear missile threat.Kim's commanders could still roll out missiles and take revenge.

blue shirts:What these and othe open source researchers see moving upstream is gradual, begrudging acceptance that it's too late to stop North Korea from becoming a member of neuclear club.