The following is from Edward Luttwak's serial column in the front matter of the monthly magazine "Hanada," which arrived at my home yesterday.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide.
Prepare for "Xi Jinping's War."
Xi Jinping is on the move.
According to the People's Daily, an affiliate of the Chinese Communist Party, on July 6, Xi Jinping visited the headquarters of the Eastern War Area, which is in charge of the Taiwan area in the Chinese military, and said, "We must accelerate the improvement of our ability to fight and win.
We should seriously consider the meaning of these words.
First, this is not a statement to the People's Liberation Army in the Eastern Theater (which is in charge of the Taiwan landings and even the fight against Japan) to "defend China.
It is important to note that he says, "Fight and win."
Second, Taiwan has no plans to invade mainland China.
Until the 1980s, Taiwan allegedly had plans to retake mainland China, but today it does not have such a force and has no plans to do so.
Third is that only Xi Jinping can start that "fight."
One thing is of interest here.
The Japanese and U.S. governments have not reacted in any way to this statement.
Of course, the statement was reported in the news, but the Japanese and U.S. governments did not officially respond, saying it was irresponsible.
It is as if they treat the statement as "the ramblings of a noisy child."
From a strategic point of view, however, is it appropriate to treat Xi's remarks as "child's play"?
China today is not led by the Communist Party but by Xi Jinping himself.
What if Xi Jinping, who has become "China itself," wakes up one morning in a bad mood and suddenly declares war?
What if a doctor, after a checkup, tells him, "You have cancer."
He might think, "Before I die, I must start a war and take Taiwan."
It is no joke.
Historians agree that one of the most significant factors in Adolf Hitler starting World War II earlier than planned was his deteriorating health.
It was in 1933 that the Nazis led by himself, came to power in Germany.
Hitler's health tended to deteriorate after that, and he constantly received medication and injections from Theodor Morell, whom he had brought in as his doctor.
Hitler planned war in Europe and assumed he would be ready between 1943 and 1945.
In reality, however, the war began in 1939, when the German army and economy were unprepared.
It is said to have been due to the impatience caused by Hitler's health problems.
Let me tell you a story about a diplomat.
It is a man well known to the Japanese, Wang Yi.
He is currently the top diplomat of the Chinese Communist Party and a member of the Central Political Bureau. When he was the Chinese ambassador to Japan, he was so friendly and well-received that he regularly went golfing with Japanese politicians and business executives because of his fluency in Japanese.
However, after returning to Beijing, he did the opposite of what a "diplomat" is supposed to do; that is, he repeatedly made aggressive statements to other countries, causing discomfort, and that is how he rose through the ranks and achieved his current position.
What does this mean?
It is Xi Jinping who has changed Wang Yi.
In other words, acting aggressively and non-diplomatically suits Xi Jinping.
It also means that Xi Jinping wants conflict.
That is why Xi went to the trouble of saying that "the historical relationship between China and the Ryukyu Islands is deep," which casts doubt on the question of Okinawa's ownership.
Here, I would like to draw your attention to recent developments in the European Union (EU).
They knew the importance of business relations and had excellent relations with China until just a few years ago.
They had spent seven years in arduous talks to conclude a free trade agreement with China.
However, those talks have stalled, and the EU is even encouraging participating countries to send ships to East Asia to conduct free navigation operations there.
In other words, the EU has become increasingly wary of China and closed its doors to it.
The Europeans have noticed.
Xi Jinping has begun to behave like Hitler.
The leaders of Japan and the United States must now make a decision.
Is Xi Jinping, who is telling the military to "prepare for war," just a "noisy kid," or is he more like Hitler, who is really trying to start a war?
There is no guarantee that Xi Jinping will not be as impatient as Hitler.
We should be prepared.
Edward Lutowaczk
Strategist
