ミャンマー：ミン・アウン・フライン、アセアン会議へ

　アセアンは、加入諸国の内政に（少なくとも、表立っては）手出ししない方向。とはいえいくらなんでも多少なりと「ご意見申し上げる」くらいはしたいだろうし―中国とどれだけ近いかによって―大陸諸国と当初諸国との間で―意見もあろうところ。ミン・アウン・フラインは、国家指導者として、まあ当然のこととして出席せざるを得ない。それなりにいばらの道か、なにかではあろう。

BBC Myanmar: Military chief set to make first foreign trip since coup 5 hours ago

「The head of the Myanmar military is set to meet international leaders, in what will be his first known foreign trip since the army took power in a coup.

General Min Aung Hlaing is scheduled to attend an Asean regional summit in the Indonesian capital Jakarta on Saturday.

The military seized power on 1 February, claiming there had been voter fraud in the 2020 general election.

Since then, more than 700 people have been killed as many protested against the military government.」

　このジャカルタ行きは、クーデター以来、彼の最初の公式の外国訪問（もっとも、非公式に出てゆく時間もなかっただろうけれども）。

「The UN special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, will be in Jakarta for meetings on the sidelines of the summit.」

　米国をはじめとする諸国は経済的な制裁を実施する－とはいえ、経済制裁の効果は限定的ではある。

BBC Myanmar coup: Could sanctions on the military ever work? 9 April 2021　By Tim McDonald

「Researchers from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) evaluated over 200 cases and found that only a third were a complete or partial success. Others using the same data put the hit rate at just 5%, arguing the PIIE researchers were too generous in their definition of success.」

　…軍が企業を運営しているような状態ですので、さてどれほど、どのような効果があるものか。

BBC Myanmar coup: The shadowy business empire funding the Tatmadaw 9 Mar 2021　By Joshua Cheetham

「Both organisations - Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL) - have since become a key source of wealth for the Tatmadaw, with stakes in everything from banking and mining to tobacco and tourism. MEHL also operates the military's pension fund.」

「Aung Pyae Sone - the son of coup leader Gen Min Aung Hliang - owns several companies, including a beach resort, and has a majority stake in national telecoms carrier Mytel.

The full extent of these business interests is hard to quantify. But experts say that the military's business clout remains significant, despite recent democratic reforms, and the coup could partly be an attempt to protect these financial interests.」

　―ぶっちゃけ、仕事をなくした人民が政府支持をやめて政権が危うくなって―という理路で効果を表すもの、と纏めることもできるわけだ。つまり、その重みと要求の重みとのバランスの問題。ということで、こうした抑圧的な政府の場合、経済制裁のきき具合はなかなかに渋い。