民衆蜂起後も未解決の失業問題は危機的状況

Shrinking jobs pool a danger after unrest linked to lack of work

Oct 23, 2011 

『アラブの春』民衆蜂起後の 遅々とした経済成長と急増する失業率は、MENA地域の青年層に必用な数百万以上の職創出の難しさを更に深めている。

 

http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/economics/shrinking-jobs-pool-a-danger-after-unrest-linked-to-lack-of-work

 

DEAD SEA, JORDAN // Slowing economic growth and escalating unemployment after the 'Arab Spring' uprisings is deepening the challenge of creating millions of jobs for the region's youths.

Unemployment is 11.5 per cent in the Arab world, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Joblessness is even more pressing among the young, with as many as 25.2 per cent of youths out of work, says the IIF. Youth unemployment in the region is the highest in the world, more than twice as high as in South Asia, according to estimates from the International Labour Organization (ILO). The task is likely to intensify in the coming years as an increasing number of young people enter the job market. Over the next 10 years, the region has to create about 75 million additional jobs, a rate of job generation 40 per cent greater than the current rate, the World Economic Forum estimates.

political transitions in Egypt and Tunisia has prompted the IIF to lower its economic performance forecasts for next year. Both economies would enter recession this year, the IIF said. Egypt's GDP would grow by only 2 per cent next year, down from the 4.2 per cent forecast in May, the IIF said in a report last week. It lowered its forecast for Tunisia's GDP next year to 4.2 per cent, from 5.2 per cent previously. Such growth is not high enough to create the number of jobs required, the IIF said.

NOTE:

アラブの春の失業率への影響

2008年から2010年までに失業率は0.2%増

アラブ世界の平均失業率：11.5%

青年層の失業率：25.2%　世界最高、南アジアの2倍

向こう10年内に新たに加えて創出すべき職数：7500万、40%増

過去20年来、青年層の4人に1人は失業していた状態

アジア他、他の地域と違って職を創出するダイナミックな民間企業産業が未発達であることが主な原因。

 

旧独裁体制崩壊後、新政府構造、新社会構造構築までの移行期間が最も難しい。