イラクにむらがるメジャー投資銀行

Investment bankers move in on Iraq　

November 27, 2011 9:30 pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8e4f14a6-179a-11e1-b157-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ezBOOW00

 Even as the US prepares to pull out its last troops from Iraq, well-heeled investment bankers are starting to descend on Baghdad, hoping to capitalise on the strife-torn country’s tentative efforts to rebuild its physical and financial infrastructure.

..........

Undeterred, investment bankers from institutions including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Citigroup and BNP Paribas are still flocking to Iraq.

Mandates on offer include advisory work on a sovereign credit rating, stock flotations, billions of dollars worth of infrastructure and project finance, and in the longer term, potentially Iraq’s first publicly sold sovereign bond.

........

“Iraq is a compelling opportunity for us,” said the regional head of a big global bank. “With all the oil wealth Iraq has, everyone sees the opportunity. It’s virgin territory for the big international banks.”

The first significant deals are likely to be the initial public offerings of Iraq’s three phone operators. Zain Iraq, Asiacell and Korek are required by the authorities to offer a quarter of their shares on the Iraq stock exchange by the end of August, and could raise more than $3bn if the flotations go smoothly.

Zain Iraq is being advised by Citigroup, BNP Paribas and National Bank of Kuwait; Asiacell, controlled by Qatar Telecom, has appointed HSBC and Morgan Stanley to manage its IPO; and Korek, 20 per cent owned by France Telecom , is still finalising its list of advisers.

“Everything in Iraq is an uphill battle. If it wasn’t, tons of bankers would move to Baghdad tomorrow,” says Shwan Taha, the chairman of Rabee Securities, one of Iraq’s biggest brokerages.

..........

Fearful of falling out with policymakers, bankers are therefore reluctant to talk publicly about their Iraq ambitions, but privately enthuse over the potential business that could be on offer in the coming years.

“It will take a lot of patience before we see Iraq pay off ... [but] there are several transactions in the pipeline that look like they’re going forward now,” said one banker.

 

太字色字化はブログ管理者によるもの

NOTE

 

世界のメジャー銀行、ぞくぞくとイラク進出

政情治安不安定にもかかわらず、市場規模の大きさから、高いリスクを冒してまで敢えて進出する確定的高価値市場認識

 

イラクの2012年の産油量は、日産２６０万バレル

向こう10年までに日産1200万バレルをめざす

 

イラクのテレコム３社のIPOだけで30億ドル市場

 

イラク進出銀行：Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Citigroup, BNP Paribas

 

 

協調したメディアのシリア攻撃 ．．．戦略

'Coordinated media attack against Syria will continue'

03 November, 2011, 20:14

http://rt.com/news/syria-assad-media-attack-501/

While the Syrian government has agreed to an Arab league proposal that could put a stop to nearly eight months of violence, independent journalist James Corbert argues a media campaign is underway to help overthrow the Syrian government.

­According to Colbert, human rights groups are being used as a front to destabilize the Syrian government. He sees a link between Syria and Libya, where a stream of unverifiable stories were used to undermine the Gaddafi regime.

“The latest example in fact is just breaking now, is that apparently they’re trying to say that the ceasefire has already been broken by Syrian troops firing on citizens,” he says.

      .....................................　中略

As the United States also maintains that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had lost legitimacy and must step down regardless of the recently agreed peace deal in Cairo, Colbert says it has been Washington’s long-standing policy to remove Assad from power.  

“In Libya, where we saw the well-funded and well-supported rebels taking over…we see that happening again through covert means here with covert supplies going to the Syrian opposition and that came out earlier this year that in fact the US State Department has been funding the Syrian opposition for years so again we see the exact same pattern ramping up.” 

According to diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks in April, the United States has been funding the Syrian opposition since 2005, when then-President George W. Bush effectively cut off political ties with the Syrian government.  That policy continued under President Obama, despite his administration’s policy of rapprochement with Damascus.

 

太字色字化はブログ管理者による。

 NOTE: 

＊　今年４月レポートのウィキリークス、米国ブッシュ政府は2005年シリア政府と外交断絶すると同時に以来、反政府勢力に資金援助開始、オバマ政権でもこの政策は受け継がれている。

 

＊　西洋メジャーメディアの連動したシリア政府攻撃

 

＊　人権団体を利用した根拠の取れていない報告、動画、画像の利用による報道演出

 

＊　リビアケースのパターンを踏襲

 

＊　イランのアラブ シーア派を通してのアラブ世界への影響脅威を煽動、アラブ連盟のスンニ派ヘゲモニーは、米国イ国に踊ら（加圧）されるカタール、サウジ、UAEの役割

 

＊　アラブ世界のイスラム原理主義化実現へのメディアの役割：西洋メディアのアリバイ工作役を果たす、富裕アラブ産油国製英語メディア＝メディアアルジャジーラ、アルアラビーア

 

古い記事なのだが、アラブ連盟のシリア制裁決定報道を受けて、ノートしておく。1498年以来続いているものの、21世紀の歴史的なアラブ世界自壊的解体の１イベント。

Arab League slaps sanctions on Syria

 Angry Damascus lashes out at the decision calling it a 'betrayal of Arab solidarity'

00:00 November 28, 2011

http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/arab-league-slaps-sanctions-on-syria-1.938841

Cairo: In a move unprecedented in the modern history of the Arab world against an Arab state, the Arab League yesterday slapped stringent sanctions on Syria in the strongest blow yet to President Bashar Al Assad's regime.

 

危機状況下に頼れる政治家：フォアッド シニオーラ

A statesman who can be counted on in times of crisisNov 10, 2011 

Michael Karam

 

http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/economics/a-statesman-who-can-be-counted-on-in-times-of-crisis

I like Fouad Siniora, always have. The former Lebanese finance minister and later, more famously, prime minister, has for me always been the quintessential statesman, a technocrat with a conscience, the perfect leader for a country that in reality is more driven by the dollar than by ideology.

.......

Why should I like Mr Siniora? After all, there is a segment of Lebanese society that loathes the legacy of the Hariri-Siniora axis and blames our current predicament on its profligacy. His detractors accuse him, as Hariri's finance minister, of increasing Lebanon's national debt from a perfectly manageable US$2 billion (Dh7.34bn) in 1992 to more than $30bn by 2004.

There were also the charges of corruption, of which a parliamentary committee cleared him in 2003. With hindsight, the reconstruction years of the 1990s were probably unwise. But Hariri had a vision. Basically it was: 'spend and we'll get it back in spades when we make Beirut the jewel of the Levant, and the Arabs will flock to its gleaming new city centre'. It was a bold, some might even say reckless, roll of the dice, a strategy that wasn't helped by the ever-present culture of embezzlement - over which one would like to assume Mr Siniora had no control - that raised the debt. But at least there was a vision and a plan.

I like Mr Siniora simply because, as prime minister between 2005 and 2009, he represented the Lebanon many of us wanted after the Cedar Revolution. Here was a technocrat, strongly pro-business (as any good Lebanese Sunni should be) who also had a sense of duty.

......

So why, many of you wonder, am I suddenly writing a paean to someone many see as yesterday's man? Well, last Friday he hit out at the US government for cutting off tens of millions of dollars in contributions to Unesco, which relies on the Americans for much of its funding, after the body granted membership to the Palestinian Territories.

Instead of urging the Arab street to rise up and take Jerusalem or burn the US and Israeli flags, Mr Siniora's reaction was to call on Arab and Islamic countries to get out their chequebooks and pay the shortfall. It would, he said "thwart Israeli blackmail and intimidation and US pressure [for the sake of] dominance". It was a suggestion on-message with the so-called Arab Awakening.

＃太字、色字化はブログ管理者によるもの。掲載文章は抜粋意。全文はリンク先参照のこと

 

NOTE:

 

＊ Fouad Siniora前レバノン首相、Rafik Hariri内閣の元財務大臣

 

＊ レバノンの債務：1992年時に20億ドル から2004年時には300億ドル

 

＊ 1975年以来16年に及んだレバノン市民戦争後の復興再建、開発への大胆な建設計画で膨らました債務の責任者でもあるが、故ハリーリ首相と共に、過去のベイルート、地中海の宝石の栄光再建により、湾岸アラブ諸国からの観光収入で十分に返済できると云うビジョンを持っての野心的な再興計画を実行した。

 

＊ イデオロギーよりもドル収入に動機で動く国柄、国民性を理解している、危機状況下で最も頼りにできるテクノクラート 政治家

 

＊ パレスチナのユネスコ正式加入採決に反対した、米国のユネスコ賛助金引揚に際し、シニオーラが全アラブ諸国に呼びかけたのは、反イスラエル政治行動ではなく、アラブ諸国が賛助金を肩代わりしよう、と言うものだった。

 

 

中東GCCのメガリッチUNHW

Saudi tops the Middle East for super-rich residents

Thursday, 10 November 2011 1:09 PM

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-tops-middle-east-for-super-rich-residents-429385.html

Saudi Arabia is home to more super-rich individuals than any other Middle East country, a report from Wealth-X said Thursday, representing 1,225 people sitting on a cash pile of $227bn.

The wealthiest Arab state slid in ahead of the UAE, whose multimillionaires’ club numbers 775 people with a combined wealth of $116bn, the Singapore-based research and advisory firm said.

There are 4,490 so-called ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) individuals in the Middle East, compared to 62,960 in North America and 54,325 in Europe, the report said.

This ultra-wealthy group represents a combined personal wealth of $705bn, said Wealth-X, which provides private banks with information on super-rich clients and potential customers.

．．．

Bahrain, which was badly hit by the upheaval that swept the Arab world earlier this year, was the only Gulf state that failed to rank with the Middle East’s eight richest nations.

Kuwait’s super-rich ranked third in the region with a combined wealth of $122bn while Oman, home to 140 UNHW individuals, ranked eighth with a combined wealth of $18bn.

中略

Private bankers should also track ultra-wealthy Egyptians who are looking to diversify income from domestic markets after the political upheaval this year, according to the report.

中略

“Although the global economy is facing uncertainty, the spending, giving and lifestyle habits of UHNW individuals have not been severely impacted. The UHNW community is somewhat insulated from macro trends in the global economy. Simply put, the world’s wealthy elite are in a class of their own,” said the report.

Wealth-X estimates there are 62,960 UHNW individuals in North America compared to 54,325 in Europe, 42,525 in Asia Pacific region. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to overtake North America by 2032 and Europe in 2024.

 

＊太字、色字はブログ管理者によるもの

NOTE:

世界のUltra-high-net-worth UHNW＝超高額資産家

　　　　　　　　　　地域人口 

北米地域：62,960人（  34730万人）

欧州地域：54,325人（  81642万人）

亜州太洋：42,525人（427000万人）

 

アジア太平洋地域は、2032までに北米地域に、2042年まで欧州地域に取って代わると予想される。

 

 

中東地域のUHNW：4,490人

 

1．KSA：1225人2270億ドル（人口2700万）

2．UAE：775人1160億ドル（人口826万人）

3．KWT:　？　1220億ドル（人口210万人）

8．Oman：140人180億ドル（人口300万人）

 

バハレーンは民衆蜂起の影響による 低成長でTop 8入りできず。

 

ケニヤによる新たな侵入 ソマリアの変わらない現実

A new invasion, an old reality for famine-struck Somalia

 

By　Aly Verjee

Nov 7, 2011 

http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/a-new-invasion-an-old-reality-for-famine-struck-somalia

Somalia has been here before. A foreign power, motivated by a compelling need to stop the spreading havoc resulting from state collapse, has sent its army in to fight. The Islamist enemy seems evident, the threat alarming and the objectives of the military campaign clear.

Many Kenyans believe their government had to act after international visitors were abducted from the coastal resort town of Lamu about a month ago; tourism, one of the largest sectors of the economy, was at risk. Following the subsequent attack on aid workers at Dadaab refugee camp, the humanitarian operation in northeastern Kenya was in jeopardy.

Further, it had become apparent that the hijacking of commercial vessels by Somali pirates was not a problem that could be solved purely at sea - tackling the pirates' home ports on land was also necessary. And as the July 2010 Kampala bombings showed, Somalia's rogue Al Shabaab government and its sympathisers were a continuing threat to all of East Africa.

But, as with the Americans and Ethiopians before them, it was easier for Kenya to embark on a military expedition than to single-handedly resolve Somalia's political crisis.

Somalia has indeed been here before. A catastrophic famine has displaced hundreds of thousands of people within Somalia itself and into neighbouring countries, primarily Kenya and Ethiopia. Their coping mechanisms exhausted, four million people still in Somalia are in need of emergency food assistance.

More donor assistance is forthcoming, but there is no end in sight to the famine. As in 1991, it will ultimately claim tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives. And while the emergency response has rightly focused on the immediate alleviation of suffering, this is the most short-term of solutions.

Much of what we think we know about Somalia is wrong. Somalis have proved more than capable of building functional polities - witness the realities of Somaliland and Puntland, the two autonomous enclaves in Somalia's north that operate without any need of Mogadishu. They are states by most definitions, regardless of their lack of international recognition.

Far from being a barren wasteland, parts of Somalia even grow watermelons, and the bountiful harvest is exported to Djibouti. One of the world's leading money remittance companies, Dahabshiil, is a business with its entrepreneurial roots in Somaliland, even if today its corporate headquarters is in Dubai.

Starvation alone is not responsible for the huge death toll. Easily preventable diseases are some of the biggest killers in the famine. In September, the UN reported that at one refugee camp in Ethiopia, measles was responsible for 68 per cent of recent child deaths. A mass measles vaccination campaign is under way, targeting 2.3 million children, but only about half of those in need have so far been reached. Cholera, polio and malaria are all resurgent threats. Somalia's anarchy, which has caused efforts at universal preventative immunisation to fail, can be directly blamed for the deaths of so many victims.

It is too early to say if Kenya will succeed where the United States and Ethiopia did not. Already, Al Shabaab has retaliated with bomb attacks in Nairobi. As an open society, it will be impossible for Kenya to prevent every determined attacker with the aim of targeting a bus, a shopping centre, a government office or an embassy. It may also mean more internal strife and tension, as ethnic Somali Kenyans are treated with suspicion by their countrymen and their own government.

A combination of the rains and the emergency humanitarian response will eventually bring an end to the famine. But long-term food security remains out of reach for millions.

Food insecurity, even famine, does not mean overall food production in the region is inadequate. The problems are elsewhere: the war and general insecurity and displacement in southern Somalia, chronic inequitable access and distribution of food resources, high food prices, and the limited resilience of subsistence agriculture in times of climatic stress.

Violence has disrupted agricultural production. It has made trade more difficult and raised costs. In step with global trends, fuel and fertiliser prices have increased, further raising the cost of production. Subsistence agriculture is at the limits of its resilience in a time of climatic stress.

Somalia's official Transitional Federal Government will carry on, despite having little legitimacy or popular support. And the Kenyans may rout Al Shabaab as the Ethiopians routed the Union of Islamic Courts before them, but no country has the appetite for a protracted Somali occupation, and some form of Islamist politics is a Somali reality.

A domestic political solution - of and by Somalis - is still vital. Without one, the ongoing failures of the Somali state will outlast this military intervention, this drought and this famine. Somalia has been here before. Will this time be different?

Aly Verjee is senior researcher at the Rift Valley Institute specialising in the politics of East Africa

The National

＊太字・色字化はブログ管理者のよるもの。 

NOTE:

1. 飢饉による飢餓難民の死亡原因の多くは予防可能な麻疹、おたふく風邪、風疹など

2. 飢餓難民問題は飢饉よりも、紛争、政情不安定 、南ソマリアからの難民流出、食糧分配の不均衡、飼料肥料の価格高騰、慢性的な不均衡流通、旱魃に対応できない不安定な農業基盤　．．．が原因

3. 観光産業収入依存度が高い東アフリカ諸国にとって、武装原理主義アル・シャバァブの影響波及する事は深刻な問題。　同調波及を恐れる

4. ケニアにとって不機能ソマリア政府と交渉解決するよりも、侵入直接軍事行動による武力勢力掃討作戦の方が効果的と判断

 

 

国連投票、パレスチナを責める米国リーダー達：ジェームズ ゾグビー

A familiar fiction as US leaders blame Palestinians for UN vote

 

James Zogby

 

Nov 6, 2011 

http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/a-familiar-fiction-as-us-leaders-blame-palestinians-for-un-vote

 

The hysteria in Washington over Unesco's vote to include Palestine as a member of the UN cultural body, although largely a manufactured effort, was nevertheless an irritating commentary on the dysfunctional nature of US politics.

Before the vote, Congressional members sent a letter to the White House titled "Oppose Dangerous Bid by the Palestinians to Gain Unesco Recognition". The Obama administration also warned corporate executives that their interests would be hurt if the Palestinians succeeded in "forcing the US" to defund the UN agency. After the vote, there was posturing that accompanied the "automatic cut off" of US dues and the shameful rhetoric that blamed the Palestinians for harming Unesco's work. Throughout, the entire affair bordered on the surreal.

I was in Washington in 1993 and 1994 after the Oslo Accords and the euphoria that followed the Arafat-Rabin handshake on the White House lawn. It was fully expected that Congress would rescind its long list of anti-Palestinian legislation. It would have been the right thing to do, but the hardline lobby Aipac and its pro-Likud supporters blocked the move.

And so instead of changing or cancelling anti-Palestinian laws passed in the previous decade, Congress was pushed to place even more punitive restrictions on US relations with the Palestine Liberation Organization. Instead of removing the ban on PLO operations in Washington and Palestinian diplomatic visits to the US, they were given a waiver that could be revoked and required a regular White House report to Congress to remain in effect. Aid was given to the Palestinians, but with conditions more humiliating and burdensome than any other US assistance package.

During that period, an alliance was born between Likud, which wanted the then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin to fail, and Republicans in the US Congress who wanted President Bill Clinton to fail. Both saw punishing Palestinians as a safe target on which to focus their attention.

Despite Democratic control of the House of Representatives, hard-line pro-Israel politics trumped the administration's appeals to support Israeli-Palestinian peace. After Republicans gained control of Congress in 1994, it was as if Likud had moved its offices to Capitol Hill. At one point, Aipac and Congress's efforts to punish Palestinians became so troubling that Rabin came to Washington to tell Aipac to stop meddling in Congress, which was interfering with his efforts to make peace.

The legislation that has now been implemented, suspending US dues to Unesco, is a product of that era. Likud and its bipartisan allies in Washington set as many pitfalls so they could to make peace impossible; and cowardly Democrats did not stand up to support the US president.

＊元記事にボールド青字化はない、ブログ管理者によるもの

NOTE:

1993～94年、米国共和党とイ国リクード党支援者協働の始まり

米国議会の反パレスチナ制裁法

パレスチナのユネスコ正規加盟承認投票と米国の自業自得国際的孤立

 

 

原油価格＄１００で消え行くサウジの対イラン対抗心

 

Saudi opposition to Iran fades on $100 oil goal

 

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-opposition-iran-fades-on-100-oil-goal-427603.html?page=0

Saudi Arabia’s biggest cut in oil output in three years is a sign OPEC’s largest producer is finding common cause with its long-time rival Iran.

The kingdom reduced supply by 400,000 barrels a day, or about 4 percent, last month, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Oct 8, reversing increases that it started in April, when declining Libyan exports sent North Sea Brent to a 2 1/2-year high. Crude prices have fallen 14 percent since then as the North African nation revived production and the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global demand.

Cutting output brings Saudi Arabia closer to Iran, which this year urged Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to restrict supplies. Tension between OPEC’s two top producers escalated in March as Persian Gulf nations accused Iran’s Shiite leaders of supporting unrest in Bahrain and other Sunni-led monarchies, a charge Iran denies. Relations soured further when Iran opposed a Saudi proposal at OPEC’s conference in June to pump more oil.

“Despite their mutual antipathy, neither country wants prices to fall below $100,” Leo Drollas, the London-based chief economist at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, an oil consultant founded by former Saudi Oil Minister Zaki Yamani, said. “Iran needs oil as high as it can get it, while the Saudis can live with $90. As oil falls, they become reluctant bedfellows.”

中略

“If the Saudis want to push for more sanctions, they will need to show they are willing to replace any loss in production from Iran.”

While Saudi Arabia has boosted output capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day, Iran’s will decline by about 20 percent to 3 million barrels a day by 2020 as sanctions discourage foreign investment, according to the IEA.

The kingdom has increased supplies by 17 percent since the start of year as Libyan exports collapsed amid fighting to oust Muammar Qaddafi, JODI data show. Iran has kept output little changed in the past three months at about 3.6 million barrels.

OPEC failed to reach a consensus at its June meeting when six members including Iran opposed Saudi Arabia’s push to pump more oil. It was “one of the worst meetings we’ve ever had,” al-Naimi, 76, said after the Vienna talks. The country went ahead with an increase regardless. OPEC meets next on Dec. 14.

Saudi Arabia has stepped in before to balance the oil market as production from other OPEC nations floundered. The kingdom pumped a record 9.9 million barrels a day during the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988. It also increased supply in the first Gulf War and again in 2003 during the US-led invasion of Iraq. Each time, the nation trimmed exports as prices fell.

Oil tumbled to $10 a barrel in the year that followed its decision in late 1997 to push through an OPEC increase, punishing Venezuela, Nigeria and other members that were flouting their official quotas.

Brent will average $107.28 a barrel this quarter, according to the median estimate of 34 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia wants to keep oil between $90 and $100, Barclays Plc and Deutsche Bank AG said on Oct. 17.

“There is no indication whatsoever that the Saudis are considering using their considerable spare oil production capacity to displace Iranian oil, or make it more difficult for Iran to sell its oil,” said Bhushan Bahree, senior director for global oil at IHS-Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “Besides, if Iran finds itself pressed in the marketplace, it can turn to new customers, or generate buying interest for its oil by discounting it.”

Middle East and Persian Gulf nations are looking to earnings from oil to fund social spending after pro-democracy movements overthrew rulers in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and spread to Yemen and Syria, according to Bank of America Corp. OPEC’s 12 members are forecast to earn an unprecedented $1 trillion in oil revenue this year, US Energy Department said.

“The Saudis typically make decisions based on what’s in their own best interest,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank in Washington. “Their second priority is to do what’s best for global economic conditions. The Saudis probably like seeing the price of Brent between $90 and $100, more than at either $75 or $125.”

 

NOTE:

欧米に対立扇動させられ続けるオペック２大ライバル産油国の共通利益　

スンニ王国サウジアラビア

シーア共和国イラン

 

今月サウジアラビハここ３年間で最大の日産40万バレル減産に踏み切った。

 

欧米軍事介入リビヤ市民戦争以来、サウジは日産17%増産、1270万バレル/日

イランも若干の増産で360万バレル/日

アラブの春が中東諸国に拡がるにあたり、産油諸国は政権安定のため原油利益を社会インフラ建設投資に当てたいため、世界の原油需要減が見込まれる中、減産による原油価格高安定を目指す、ライバル二国サウジ/イラン共通の利益をみる。

 

サウジアラビアが好ましいとするのはバレル90～100ドル