文明のターンテーブルThe Turntable of Civilization

日本の時間、世界の時間。
The time of Japan, the time of the world

there is a terrible situation that China can not issue money without foreign debt.

2019年03月11日 14時05分24秒 | 日記

The following is the continuation of the previous chapter.
China's last resort is the Abe administration
Nevertheless foreign exchange reserves will decrease.
If the foreign exchange assets of the People's Bank are reduced, it will hinder issuance of the Renminbi, so the desperate measure is borrowing foreign currency.
As the graph shows, foreign borrowing has been increasing rapidly since 2017.
Even if borrowing, the foreign currency that flows in is purchased by the People's Bank to make it foreign currency assets in the Chinese style.
If you look closely, borrowing foreign currency is constantly outweighing the amount of foreign exchange fluctuations.
In other words, even if you borrow from the outside, only a part of it will remain in China, and many will escape.
Still despite from foreign countries, China will purchase it and the foreign exchange reserves do not increase in any way, there is a limit to the amount of increase of the former funds to banks and others.
As a result, the domestic new loan amount drastically decreased from the latter half of 2017 to the present as shown by the graph.
Generally speaking, there is a terrible situation that China can not issue money without foreign debt.
Looking at this, the recession in China is in a type of financial crisis.
The Trumpe regime knows its plight or they unknowingly, they get to the point.
The trumpe regime's trade sanctions against China is based on the goal of reducing the trade deficit with China by 200 billion annually, but China's international balance of payments is only around 100 billion dollars a year, so if the surplus to the United States drastically decreases, In foreign currency reserves will be reduced, and Chinese finance will fall into functioning paralysis.
If the Renminbi is devalued as a countermeasure, the US sanction tariff can be canceled, but yuan depreciation leads to capital flight, so they have to be careful.
Even if trade negotiations with the United States are concluded, money can not be printed because foreign reserves will not increase.
If it breaks, capital flight will accelerate, so finance will be dead.
Xi Jinping regime's last resort is surplus Japan.
Xi Jinping regime will continue to make eyes more strongly to Abe Shinzo administration.


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