(Mainichi Japan) November 11, 2009
Japan, U.S. can no longer ignore the presence of China
日米漂流：オバマ大統領来日を前に／中 無視できぬ中国の存在
◇水面下で進んだＧ４ 「鳩山論文」で亀裂、懸念
The plan to form a Group of Four (G4) between Japan, the United States, Europe and China has demonstrated that Beijing's growing presence and influence can no longer be ignored.
A European news organization's report that U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner would propose the formation of the G4 created a stir in the Group of Seven (G7) meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors held in Istanbul on Oct. 3.
１０月３日にトルコのイスタンブールで開かれた先進７カ国財務相・中央銀行総裁会議（Ｇ７）。直前に欧州メディアが「ガイトナー米財務長官、新たな枠組みＧ４（主要４カ国）を提案へ」と報じたことで会議に出席する各国代表は騒然となった。
Prior to the G7 meeting, the U.S. government had proposed behind the scenes that Japan, the United States, Europe and China should form the G4. The proposal was retracted in response to stiff opposition from European countries that feared the formation of the G4 would lead to a decline in their influence.
The confusion over the G4 plan has reminded global players of China's rising influence in the world.
米政府はＧ７を前に、水面下で「日米欧プラス中国の４カ国・地域で新たな枠組みを作る」と打診。影響力低下を懸念した欧州勢の反発で「そのような発言は全くなかった」（カナダ・フレアティ財務相）と提案は封印されたが、「中国が不可欠なことを満天下に知らしめた」という印象は残った。
At the same time, the surfacing of the issue has reinforced to Japan, which has previously taken advantage of its close relations with the United States to represent Asia in G7 meetings, that it will soon lose such a privilege.
米国との緊密な経済関係をテコにアジア代表として、Ｇ７に出席してきた日本にとっては「その特権を失う時期が近い」ことを意識させられた。
It appears that the G4 plan abruptly came about, but it had been carefully prepared in advance. In early 2005, Japan, the United States and China began unofficial talks on currency policy, say international financial sources.
唐突に浮上したかに映るＧ４。しかし、実は念入りとも言える助走期間があった。国際金融筋によると、日米中３カ国は０５年初めから非公式の通貨協議を開始。
Their talks prior to the G7 meeting in that year led to the appreciation of the yuan in July 2005, according to a high-ranking official of the Japanese government.
当時、溝口善兵衛財務官とテーラー米財務次官、中国の財務担当者が通貨政策を話し合った。Ｇ７開催前に３者による協議を行い、「０５年７月には中国人民元の切り上げに結びついた」（日本政府高官）という。
They secretly began a G3 movement because they needed to clarify how Japan and China, which have huge amounts of U.S. government bonds, should support the dollar-led currency system.
日米中が０５年にＧ３をひそかに始めた背景には、「日中の２大米国債保有国がドル体制をどう支えるのか」という問題意識がある。
"The U.S. economy couldn't survive unless Japan and China help make up for the huge U.S. budget deficit," says an official of a major U.S. brokerage.
「日中が米国の巨額財政赤字を補てんしなければ、米経済は成り立たない」（米大手証券）状況であるためだ。
◇
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the dollar has sharply declined amid the global economic crisis triggered by the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, resulting in major changes in global economic relations.
昨年９月のリーマン・ショック後、米経済とドルへの信認が急速に低下する中、国際経済の勢力図は大きく塗り替わりつつある。
China is enjoying high economic growth while Japan, the United States and Europe have fallen into negative growth.
日米欧がマイナス成長に陥る中、中国は高い成長を維持。
In 2008, China surpassed Japan in terms of the amount of U.S. government bonds they possess, and China's gross domestic product is forecast to exceed that of Japan possibly this year. China's presence and influence is undeniable.
中国は、米国債保有残高で０８年に日本を抜き、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は０９年にも日本を上回る見通しだ。中国の存在感はますます大きくなっている。
However, there are many problems in China, such as its closed market and differences between its political system and those of Western countries. Therefore, Japan is indispensable for the United States as well as for the G4 to restrain China, says a top official of an international organization.
ただ、中国には政治体制の違いや未開放の市場など課題も多く、「米政府としては、中国をけん制する意味でも日本は不可欠。Ｇ４にも必要だ」（国際機関首脳）。
Amid such a situation, an article -- which Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader Yukio Hatoyama contributed to the online edition of The New York Times in late August before he took over the reins of government -- came as a shock to U.S. government officials. In his article, Hatoyama criticized market fundamentalism in the United States.
しかし、今年８月下旬、米紙ニューヨーク・タイムズ（電子版）に掲載された１本の原稿が米政府関係者にショックを与える。鳩山由紀夫民主党代表（当時）によるいわゆる鳩山論文は米国の市場原理主義を批判。
In response, the Wall Street Journal said there is no hope that Japan would achieve economic recovery if the DPJ takes over the reins of government, pointing out that Hatoyama did not sufficiently understand entrepreneurship.
「鳩山代表は企業家精神の理解不足。民主党政権下で日本経済の復活は期待できない」（米紙ウォールストリート・ジャーナル）と懸念を広げた。
Japan-U.S relations have been further strained since Hatoyama took office in mid-September over diplomatic and security issues, including the relocation of U.S. Air Station Futenma in Okinawa Prefecture.
Under the circumstances, U.S. officials have warned that the current disputes should not worsen bilateral economic ties.
９月の鳩山政権成立後、日米関係は、普天間飛行場移転問題など外交安保分野でさらに難しい状況に立たされており、経済分野では亀裂を広げてはいけないとの声が米政府内でも出ていた。
The Obama administration consequently hastily dispatched Geithner to Japan one week before Obama is scheduled to visit Tokyo. "The move was aimed at maintaining normal economic relations with Japan by dispatching the pro-Japan secretary," a Japan-U.S. diplomatic source said.
オバマ米大統領訪日の１週間前に急きょ、ガイトナー米財務長官を派遣したのは「“知日派長官”の訪日で、経済だけは正常な状態を維持したいとの狙いがある」（日米外交筋）。
In the upcoming summit with Obama, Hatoyama is expected to not only confirm that the two countries should strengthen their bilateral alliance but also consider how Japan can serve as a go-between between the United States and China. (By Nozomu Saito, Economic News Department, and Nobuhiro Saito, Washington Bureau)
今回の日米首脳会談では、鳩山政権は日米同盟強化の確認だけでなく、米中の仲介役として、どのように振る舞うべきか探ることになりそうだ。【斉藤望、ワシントン斉藤信宏】
(This is the fourth part of a five-part series on the Japan-U.S. alliance)
毎日新聞 2009年11月11日 東京朝刊
Japan, U.S. can no longer ignore the presence of China
日米漂流：オバマ大統領来日を前に／中 無視できぬ中国の存在
◇水面下で進んだＧ４ 「鳩山論文」で亀裂、懸念
The plan to form a Group of Four (G4) between Japan, the United States, Europe and China has demonstrated that Beijing's growing presence and influence can no longer be ignored.
A European news organization's report that U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner would propose the formation of the G4 created a stir in the Group of Seven (G7) meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors held in Istanbul on Oct. 3.
１０月３日にトルコのイスタンブールで開かれた先進７カ国財務相・中央銀行総裁会議（Ｇ７）。直前に欧州メディアが「ガイトナー米財務長官、新たな枠組みＧ４（主要４カ国）を提案へ」と報じたことで会議に出席する各国代表は騒然となった。
Prior to the G7 meeting, the U.S. government had proposed behind the scenes that Japan, the United States, Europe and China should form the G4. The proposal was retracted in response to stiff opposition from European countries that feared the formation of the G4 would lead to a decline in their influence.
The confusion over the G4 plan has reminded global players of China's rising influence in the world.
米政府はＧ７を前に、水面下で「日米欧プラス中国の４カ国・地域で新たな枠組みを作る」と打診。影響力低下を懸念した欧州勢の反発で「そのような発言は全くなかった」（カナダ・フレアティ財務相）と提案は封印されたが、「中国が不可欠なことを満天下に知らしめた」という印象は残った。
At the same time, the surfacing of the issue has reinforced to Japan, which has previously taken advantage of its close relations with the United States to represent Asia in G7 meetings, that it will soon lose such a privilege.
米国との緊密な経済関係をテコにアジア代表として、Ｇ７に出席してきた日本にとっては「その特権を失う時期が近い」ことを意識させられた。
It appears that the G4 plan abruptly came about, but it had been carefully prepared in advance. In early 2005, Japan, the United States and China began unofficial talks on currency policy, say international financial sources.
唐突に浮上したかに映るＧ４。しかし、実は念入りとも言える助走期間があった。国際金融筋によると、日米中３カ国は０５年初めから非公式の通貨協議を開始。
Their talks prior to the G7 meeting in that year led to the appreciation of the yuan in July 2005, according to a high-ranking official of the Japanese government.
当時、溝口善兵衛財務官とテーラー米財務次官、中国の財務担当者が通貨政策を話し合った。Ｇ７開催前に３者による協議を行い、「０５年７月には中国人民元の切り上げに結びついた」（日本政府高官）という。
They secretly began a G3 movement because they needed to clarify how Japan and China, which have huge amounts of U.S. government bonds, should support the dollar-led currency system.
日米中が０５年にＧ３をひそかに始めた背景には、「日中の２大米国債保有国がドル体制をどう支えるのか」という問題意識がある。
"The U.S. economy couldn't survive unless Japan and China help make up for the huge U.S. budget deficit," says an official of a major U.S. brokerage.
「日中が米国の巨額財政赤字を補てんしなければ、米経済は成り立たない」（米大手証券）状況であるためだ。
◇
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the dollar has sharply declined amid the global economic crisis triggered by the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, resulting in major changes in global economic relations.
昨年９月のリーマン・ショック後、米経済とドルへの信認が急速に低下する中、国際経済の勢力図は大きく塗り替わりつつある。
China is enjoying high economic growth while Japan, the United States and Europe have fallen into negative growth.
日米欧がマイナス成長に陥る中、中国は高い成長を維持。
In 2008, China surpassed Japan in terms of the amount of U.S. government bonds they possess, and China's gross domestic product is forecast to exceed that of Japan possibly this year. China's presence and influence is undeniable.
中国は、米国債保有残高で０８年に日本を抜き、国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は０９年にも日本を上回る見通しだ。中国の存在感はますます大きくなっている。
However, there are many problems in China, such as its closed market and differences between its political system and those of Western countries. Therefore, Japan is indispensable for the United States as well as for the G4 to restrain China, says a top official of an international organization.
ただ、中国には政治体制の違いや未開放の市場など課題も多く、「米政府としては、中国をけん制する意味でも日本は不可欠。Ｇ４にも必要だ」（国際機関首脳）。
Amid such a situation, an article -- which Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader Yukio Hatoyama contributed to the online edition of The New York Times in late August before he took over the reins of government -- came as a shock to U.S. government officials. In his article, Hatoyama criticized market fundamentalism in the United States.
しかし、今年８月下旬、米紙ニューヨーク・タイムズ（電子版）に掲載された１本の原稿が米政府関係者にショックを与える。鳩山由紀夫民主党代表（当時）によるいわゆる鳩山論文は米国の市場原理主義を批判。
In response, the Wall Street Journal said there is no hope that Japan would achieve economic recovery if the DPJ takes over the reins of government, pointing out that Hatoyama did not sufficiently understand entrepreneurship.
「鳩山代表は企業家精神の理解不足。民主党政権下で日本経済の復活は期待できない」（米紙ウォールストリート・ジャーナル）と懸念を広げた。
Japan-U.S relations have been further strained since Hatoyama took office in mid-September over diplomatic and security issues, including the relocation of U.S. Air Station Futenma in Okinawa Prefecture.
Under the circumstances, U.S. officials have warned that the current disputes should not worsen bilateral economic ties.
９月の鳩山政権成立後、日米関係は、普天間飛行場移転問題など外交安保分野でさらに難しい状況に立たされており、経済分野では亀裂を広げてはいけないとの声が米政府内でも出ていた。
The Obama administration consequently hastily dispatched Geithner to Japan one week before Obama is scheduled to visit Tokyo. "The move was aimed at maintaining normal economic relations with Japan by dispatching the pro-Japan secretary," a Japan-U.S. diplomatic source said.
オバマ米大統領訪日の１週間前に急きょ、ガイトナー米財務長官を派遣したのは「“知日派長官”の訪日で、経済だけは正常な状態を維持したいとの狙いがある」（日米外交筋）。
In the upcoming summit with Obama, Hatoyama is expected to not only confirm that the two countries should strengthen their bilateral alliance but also consider how Japan can serve as a go-between between the United States and China. (By Nozomu Saito, Economic News Department, and Nobuhiro Saito, Washington Bureau)
今回の日米首脳会談では、鳩山政権は日米同盟強化の確認だけでなく、米中の仲介役として、どのように振る舞うべきか探ることになりそうだ。【斉藤望、ワシントン斉藤信宏】
(This is the fourth part of a five-part series on the Japan-U.S. alliance)
毎日新聞 2009年11月11日 東京朝刊
