20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World

『20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World』が面白そうだ（入手困難・・・）。関連する資料を集めてみた。
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HBS Working Knowledge 『Strategies for Tough Times』
■Three things all companies must do well

But no matter which approach a company follows, it must excel in three vital areas of strategic management: market- and time-based decision making, focused competitive and market intelligence, and efficient internal capital allocations.

■Market- and time-based decision making

It must respond before opportunities are captured by competitors or threats become crises. Decisions must be tied explicitly to market-based feedback.

■Focused competitive and market intelligence

First, identify the key value drivers of your company's strategy. Second, to the extent possible, determine the range of potential outcomes for those drivers. Third, identify the potential early warning signs that would suggest these drivers are headed in one direction or another. Finally, focus your data gathering and other intelligence efforts around these value drivers. These are the data that are most important for updating your strategy over time.

Focused competitive and market intelligence is essential to effectively managing and updating a business' current strategy. Broader intelligence-gathering exercises are fundamental to continuing to identify and plan for next-generation opportunities and threats. The masters of uncertainty will make sure they do an adequate amount of both.

■Efficient internal capital allocations

As markets evolve, companies must reallocate financial, human, and management "mind share" resources across different projects and fundamental strategic directions. All three of our approaches to manage and update strategies over time rely on the premise that companies will follow through with necessary resource allocations and reallocations when called for.

■20/20 Foresight: crafting strategy in an uncertain world

Figure 7-3 summarizes the book's approach to making, monitoring, and revising strategies under uncertainty. It all starts with 20/20 foresight. Strategists that avoid misleading all-or-nothing views of uncertainty and identify the residual uncertainty they face have the best possible view of the future. This view is essential to crafting and managing winning strategies under uncertainty.

The level of residual uncertainty helps determine which situation analysis tools and frameworks are most useful, which strategies (shape or adapt, now or later, focus or diversify) are most likely to succeed, and which management processes are most appropriate for monitoring and revising strategies over time. And when the level of uncertainty changes?as it often does in today's turbulent business environments?the process must repeat itself.

『McKinsey & Company - 20/20 Foresight - Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World』

20/20 Foresight also:
Shows strategists how to tailor the decision-making process ? from formulation to implementation ? to the level of uncertainty they face.
Describes the processes executives can use to monitor and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets.
Provides a toolkit for developing, and testing new strategic options ? including guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation.

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#参考リンク
『Road Maps Through Uncertainty』

『McKinsey & Company - 20/20 Foresight - Former Team Members Talk About The Book's Origins』

『Uncertain and complex future:　The determinants of collective ability to build a corporate foresight capability』
Conclusionより抜粋

The determinants of the collective ability to build a corporate foresight capability are key to the future corporate performance of the firm. Referring to the two central research question mentioned at the beginning of this article, we believe one can conclude that:
First, while the increasing uncertainty levels of the future are perhaps not totally well defined in the literature, one might accept the fact that firms cannot any longer perceive their evolving future as they did before. The organizational structure must adapt so that executives can benefit directly from synthesized scenarios based on an arranged corporate knowledge made possible from a process design built around the recognition of the predominance of an appropriate collective body of knowledge nurtured by the individual expertise and behaviors, supported by the appropriate architecture (being I.T., systems or the explicit one), which develop its constituency in the final learning organization.
Second, in order to better prepare the company for its coming opportunities and disruptions, the executives' responsibilities are to continuously adapt the　learning organization they put in place.
o They might want to rearrange their organizational structure (installing special　bodies in charge of orientating the strategy process for example, responsible　before the executives committee or even the board of directors in an attempt to　improve the corporate governance);
o Favor a collective behavioral set of individual attitudes searching for a　continuous analysis of the next potential breakthroughs and turning points, in a　constant need for a consistent rationale between the chosen scenarios and the strategy implemented.