I calculated on the basis of reported memberships.
The nominal growth rate became -12.5% by the result for 15 years.
Then at first we grasp the change of the Latihan population.
World Membership (１９９９ figures)－－＞（２０１４ figures）
ZONE 1 / 2 (Asia Pacific) ４４４７ーー＞４３１４
ZONE 3 (Europe West) ２３９５ーー＞1９１５
ZONE 4 (Europe Central & Eastern) １３５２ーー＞１３４９
AREA 5/6 (Africa and some Middle Eastern countries)
５０８ーー＞３５１
ZONE 7 (North & Central America) ３１０４ーー＞２５０８
ZONE 8 (Latin America North) ７０２ーー＞５２５
ZONE 9 (Latin America South) ２９２ーー＞２３４
The total 12800 --> 11196
The nominal growth rate - 12.5% (in 15 years)
The number of the registration countries 75 --> 56
1999 data ＜--link (how is Subud organised?)
2014 data ＜- - link (World Subud Association)
(but the numerical value of 2014 mentioned above is a thing of the October 25, 2014 confirmation.)
Thus, the nominal growth rate becomes -12.5% for 15 years.
In that way the organization member nation decreased to 56 from 75.
After all it is likely that Latihan becomes extinct from the country with a few members.
In that way Latihan has disappeared from 19 countries.
A great effort seems to be necessary when Latihan becomes extinct from one country to light it again.
Now, "it will be -12.5% of growth in 15 years" is such a thing, saying "The membership will become half [present ] with the head in 2100, 90 more years after."
And the membership will be 1/10 , 1012 persons, of the present condition in 2285.
Probably the human network which linked the world at this point in time becomes extinct, and, in the organization, it will be to the thing only for the name.
In that way I am disappointed, but in this situation 800 years later of the Bapak prediction ,memberships is only under ten persons.
This is de facto end declaration of Latihan in a planet called the earth.
However, even the above reading is likely to become the most optimistic.
Then, reality is likely to become more severer.
Let's see it "what kind of thing be" after this.
Now, there is the first generation who "knows Bapak and his heir ".
The second generation is a generation who "knows Bapak's heir " .
Then, you are likely to come out to a slight degree, and are likely to stop birth of the second generation.
The last third generation is a generation "who does not knows neither living Bapak nor his heir."
Or may I say, " the 3rd generation knows Bapak and his heir only by a video image "?
A time is formed soon and this generation appears.
The first generation was the generation who was shocked by "the sudden return of Bapak".
In that way it was his heir who cheered up the shock.
The first generation stops then, being in 2050 at the longest.
The second generation is so, and is it extinction in shin 2080?
In that way it becomes only the remaining third generation.
Now, the shock first visited is a situation of "a return of the heir."
Then, it will continue with a shock in 2050 and a shock in 2080.
All become "negative impact" for the membership.
Then, "the first-generation disappearance" is likely to become big minus also in it.
Why?
As it has already said in many places, it is "because the member's generation composition inclines toward the first generation."
Probably, the rate of the first generation which occupies in a member is that of "being over the majority in many countries."
The way things stand, it seems by that that a large crisis will visit truly by 2050, without waiting for 2100.
Then, this is the "realistic scenario" which is likely to exist most now.
After Bapak died; 27 years.
We came over all the time without "changing anything".
As a result, it is the growth of -12.5% for 15 years.
Nothing happens if we change nothing after this.
It is only merely washed away by the time.
Then, a loose reduction turns into a gradually big reduction, and is connected to the first-generation destructive disappearance.
By the way, can we maintain the membership of around 10,000 people through these negative impacts for the time being until 2100?
Then we can flip it in until 2800 that was predicted of Bapak?
There was not much time had left, and it was sure only, the situation "could not be optimistic" in that way.
ＰＳ
October 25, 2014 confirmation.(２０１４年１０月２５日確認分データです。)
World Membership (２０１４ figures）
ZONE 1 / 2 (Asia Pacific)
Total: ４３１４
Australia (３４８),
Bangladesh (ー),
Hong Kong (ー),
India (１８７),
Indonesia (３２７２),
Iran (ー),
Japan (１４１),
Malaysia (３８),
New Zealand (１７５),
Pakistan (ー),
Philippines (ー),
Singapore (ー),
Sri Lanka (２８),
Thailand (１１),
Vietnam (１１４)
ZONE 3 (Europe West)
Total: １９１５
Belgium (１６),
Britain (１１４０),
France (１７５),
Ireland (３９),
Italy (４５),
Netherlands (１９５),
Portugal (６１),
Spain (２４４)
ZONE 4 (Europe Central & Eastern)
Total: １３４９
Austria (１４１),
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia (ー),
Cyprus (ー),
Czechia Rep.(４),
Denmark & Faroe Islands (ー),
Finland (ー),
Germany (５０５),
Greece (３９),
Hungary (４０),
Israel (１８０),
Lebanon (３５),
Lithuania(１５)
Moldova (１５2),
Norway (１００),
Poland (２２),
Romania (ー),
Russia (５０),
Serbia(５０)
Sweden (４４),
Switzerland (５９),
Turkey (ー),
Ukraine (９０),
Uzbekistan (ー)
AREA 5/6 (Africa and some Middle Eastern countries)
Total: ３５１
Algeria (ー),
Angola (９),
Benin (９),
Dubai (ー),
Ethiopia (ー),
Kenya (ー),
Malawi(２４)
Morocco (ー),
Niger (ー),
Nigeria (９０),
Congo Brazz(３０)
R.D. Congo (１２４),
Senegal (ー),
South Africa (５３),
Tanzania(１２)
Zambia (ー)
ZONE 7 (North & Central America)
Total: ２５０８
Canada (３９０),
Cuba (２０５),
Suriname (９３),
Mexico (１０５),
U.S.A. (１７１５),
West Indies (ー),
ZONE 8 (Latin America North) 702ーー＞525
Total: ５２５
Colombia (４００),
Costa Rica (２５),
Ecuador (７０),
Puerto Rico (ー),
Suriname（エリア移動）
Venezuela (36),
ZONE 9 (Latin America South) 292ーー＞234
Total: ２３４
Argentina (３２),
Bolivia (ー),
Brazil (６０),
Chile (１３０),
Paraguay (ー),
Peru (１２),
Uruguay (ー)
PS
List of articles＜－－Link
The nominal growth rate became -12.5% by the result for 15 years.
Then at first we grasp the change of the Latihan population.
World Membership (１９９９ figures)－－＞（２０１４ figures）
ZONE 1 / 2 (Asia Pacific) ４４４７ーー＞４３１４
ZONE 3 (Europe West) ２３９５ーー＞1９１５
ZONE 4 (Europe Central & Eastern) １３５２ーー＞１３４９
AREA 5/6 (Africa and some Middle Eastern countries)
５０８ーー＞３５１
ZONE 7 (North & Central America) ３１０４ーー＞２５０８
ZONE 8 (Latin America North) ７０２ーー＞５２５
ZONE 9 (Latin America South) ２９２ーー＞２３４
The total 12800 --> 11196
The nominal growth rate - 12.5% (in 15 years)
The number of the registration countries 75 --> 56
1999 data ＜--link (how is Subud organised?)
2014 data ＜- - link (World Subud Association)
(but the numerical value of 2014 mentioned above is a thing of the October 25, 2014 confirmation.)
Thus, the nominal growth rate becomes -12.5% for 15 years.
In that way the organization member nation decreased to 56 from 75.
After all it is likely that Latihan becomes extinct from the country with a few members.
In that way Latihan has disappeared from 19 countries.
A great effort seems to be necessary when Latihan becomes extinct from one country to light it again.
Now, "it will be -12.5% of growth in 15 years" is such a thing, saying "The membership will become half [present ] with the head in 2100, 90 more years after."
And the membership will be 1/10 , 1012 persons, of the present condition in 2285.
Probably the human network which linked the world at this point in time becomes extinct, and, in the organization, it will be to the thing only for the name.
In that way I am disappointed, but in this situation 800 years later of the Bapak prediction ,memberships is only under ten persons.
This is de facto end declaration of Latihan in a planet called the earth.
However, even the above reading is likely to become the most optimistic.
Then, reality is likely to become more severer.
Let's see it "what kind of thing be" after this.
Now, there is the first generation who "knows Bapak and his heir ".
The second generation is a generation who "knows Bapak's heir " .
Then, you are likely to come out to a slight degree, and are likely to stop birth of the second generation.
The last third generation is a generation "who does not knows neither living Bapak nor his heir."
Or may I say, " the 3rd generation knows Bapak and his heir only by a video image "?
A time is formed soon and this generation appears.
The first generation was the generation who was shocked by "the sudden return of Bapak".
In that way it was his heir who cheered up the shock.
The first generation stops then, being in 2050 at the longest.
The second generation is so, and is it extinction in shin 2080?
In that way it becomes only the remaining third generation.
Now, the shock first visited is a situation of "a return of the heir."
Then, it will continue with a shock in 2050 and a shock in 2080.
All become "negative impact" for the membership.
Then, "the first-generation disappearance" is likely to become big minus also in it.
Why?
As it has already said in many places, it is "because the member's generation composition inclines toward the first generation."
Probably, the rate of the first generation which occupies in a member is that of "being over the majority in many countries."
The way things stand, it seems by that that a large crisis will visit truly by 2050, without waiting for 2100.
Then, this is the "realistic scenario" which is likely to exist most now.
After Bapak died; 27 years.
We came over all the time without "changing anything".
As a result, it is the growth of -12.5% for 15 years.
Nothing happens if we change nothing after this.
It is only merely washed away by the time.
Then, a loose reduction turns into a gradually big reduction, and is connected to the first-generation destructive disappearance.
By the way, can we maintain the membership of around 10,000 people through these negative impacts for the time being until 2100?
Then we can flip it in until 2800 that was predicted of Bapak?
There was not much time had left, and it was sure only, the situation "could not be optimistic" in that way.
ＰＳ
October 25, 2014 confirmation.(２０１４年１０月２５日確認分データです。)
World Membership (２０１４ figures）
ZONE 1 / 2 (Asia Pacific)
Total: ４３１４
Australia (３４８),
Bangladesh (ー),
Hong Kong (ー),
India (１８７),
Indonesia (３２７２),
Iran (ー),
Japan (１４１),
Malaysia (３８),
New Zealand (１７５),
Pakistan (ー),
Philippines (ー),
Singapore (ー),
Sri Lanka (２８),
Thailand (１１),
Vietnam (１１４)
ZONE 3 (Europe West)
Total: １９１５
Belgium (１６),
Britain (１１４０),
France (１７５),
Ireland (３９),
Italy (４５),
Netherlands (１９５),
Portugal (６１),
Spain (２４４)
ZONE 4 (Europe Central & Eastern)
Total: １３４９
Austria (１４１),
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia (ー),
Cyprus (ー),
Czechia Rep.(４),
Denmark & Faroe Islands (ー),
Finland (ー),
Germany (５０５),
Greece (３９),
Hungary (４０),
Israel (１８０),
Lebanon (３５),
Lithuania(１５)
Moldova (１５2),
Norway (１００),
Poland (２２),
Romania (ー),
Russia (５０),
Serbia(５０)
Sweden (４４),
Switzerland (５９),
Turkey (ー),
Ukraine (９０),
Uzbekistan (ー)
AREA 5/6 (Africa and some Middle Eastern countries)
Total: ３５１
Algeria (ー),
Angola (９),
Benin (９),
Dubai (ー),
Ethiopia (ー),
Kenya (ー),
Malawi(２４)
Morocco (ー),
Niger (ー),
Nigeria (９０),
Congo Brazz(３０)
R.D. Congo (１２４),
Senegal (ー),
South Africa (５３),
Tanzania(１２)
Zambia (ー)
ZONE 7 (North & Central America)
Total: ２５０８
Canada (３９０),
Cuba (２０５),
Suriname (９３),
Mexico (１０５),
U.S.A. (１７１５),
West Indies (ー),
ZONE 8 (Latin America North) 702ーー＞525
Total: ５２５
Colombia (４００),
Costa Rica (２５),
Ecuador (７０),
Puerto Rico (ー),
Suriname（エリア移動）
Venezuela (36),
ZONE 9 (Latin America South) 292ーー＞234
Total: ２３４
Argentina (３２),
Bolivia (ー),
Brazil (６０),
Chile (１３０),
Paraguay (ー),
Peru (１２),
Uruguay (ー)
PS
List of articles＜－－Link