BBC
The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.
There have been nearly 50 confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.
秘密にしている患者数は1万を超えている頃だろう。パンデミックシミュレーションによれば、60日でほぼ全域が感染する。本来ならこの春節は移動禁止にすべきだと思う。これが思わぬ政治問題になりうる。
その後思わぬ訃報が届いた2020年4月23日（63歳没）岡江久美子
Summary
We estimate that a total of 1,723 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (95% CI: 427 – 4,471) had onset of symptoms by 12th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case).
This estimate is based on the following assumptions:
Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10].
Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
追悼
