文明のターンテーブルThe Turntable of Civilization

日本の時間、世界の時間。
The time of Japan, the time of the world

Especially Italian government must read this chapter.

2019年03月11日 13時27分45秒 | 日記

Especially Italian government must read this chapter.
The Sankei Shimbun special reporter Hideo Tamura is one of the few real economic critics that is totally different from economic critic and economic department reporters who are not only echo of the Ministry of Finance or equal to a Chinese agent.
It goes without saying that I did not know him at all until August five years ago when I was subscribing to the Asahi newspaper.
The following is from his serial column published in the monthly magazine Sound Argument this month issue.
Fourth, 'US-China truce' But China is confused
China's economic crisis, which is a hindrance to the global economy, is the main cause of self-destruction of the engine called the Communist Party-controlled financial system.
The current US-China trade war is like a transmission that adjusts the degree of progress.
Even if it becomes 'US - China truce', the confusion of China will not fit, and if negotiation breaks down, it will cause the full collapse of the economy.
The Chinese economy does not reflect the actual situation of the gross domestic product (GDP) data manually operated by the party leadership.
The real economic growth rate to be announced is maintained at the 6% range, which should of course be in the best condition in other countries, but the view of the majority of overseas China watchers is extremely negative. 
The Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) where a 3 billion-people 'ethnic major migration' occurs is a great economic observation opportunity in that respect.
Spring Break vacation is a week in early February.
In Guangdong Province where export industries concentrate, migrant workers who have returned from their hometowns are at a loss as factories in their offices are closed.
In addition, although it drinks and eats at a families party every year in general, the local media said that this time consumption was modest in large cities such as Shanghai and Beijing.
Until one year ago we attracted investor managers of wealthy people, and the boom of Internet-related start-up companies which prospered prominently disappeared.
"Investors, entrepreneurs and the media call it the freezing winter of China Internet "(February 6, Wall Street Journal = WSJ = electronic version).
lenient Japanese media in China turn to as 'China, economic measures 40 trillion yen more than, the tax cuts and infrastructure' (January 29, with the Nihon Keizai Shimbun morning edition), an eye on the effects of the economic leverage measures by Xi Jinping regime.
Perhaps it is imagining the large fiscal stimulus and monetary easing after the Lehman shock in September 2008, is it?
The contents of the economic stimulus are the boosting of bank loans, income tax cuts, the increase in bonds for investment of infrastructure for local governments, assistance for purchasing cars and home appliances limited to rural areas, but the amount of traditional finance that the People's Bank of China will raise a large amount of renminbi Expansion route is excluded.
After Lehman, the People 's Bank greatly printed money and pushed it through state - owned commercial banks controlled by the party central government to state - owned enterprises and local governments managed by party bureaucrats and raised investment in fixed assets such as infrastructure and real estate development, It is supposed to return to the high economic growth orbit of the double digit level, but there is no such sign at this time.
In contrast to the Nikkei article, the WSJ newspaper reported that "China's economic slowdown, a cautious government on measures" (electronic version dated January 22), unlike in 2008 and 2009, the People's Bank Fund It is pointed out that supply is suppressed.
'There is a recognition that the options of the Chinese leadership have changed, the options on stimulus measures are more limited than before. Credit easing in the past and the loose economy of the government spurred growth but it also caused a surge in debt centered on local governments and state-owned enterprises' it explain it neatly.
In short, this time they will tackle the economic stimulus that does not print money.
Although emphasis will be placed on momentum, income tax cuts on consumption stimulation and local government infrastructure investment, it is doubtful how much consumption will be increased by tax cuts in a traditional Chinese society that does not pay tax originally.
Speaking of local governments, after Lehman, they created a funding agency called 'Financing Vehicles' as a subsidiary, took up the land from farmers and constructed a large 'new town', but the number of residents became extremely few, making it a ghost town did.
It is a matter of course that repayment impossible continues. This draft continues


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