Civilizations and value 21 (direct and unconscious democracy)

While the culture and science of the new era have not yet become clear, the youthful forces of the new social order will probably build a new era of Japan . The first thing to be concerned about is what the culture of the new era will be and what the new science will be .

 

 the culture of the new era will likely be a kind of democratic culture that is different from that of the past . The 2021 US presidential election gave us a sense that SNS is already starting to have a major influence on old media. But it probably won't stop there. Rather than indirectly and consciously concentrating the will of the people*1 as is the case with current elections, it will become possible to condense the will of the people more directly and unconsciously*2. It's AI I think we are moving closer to a democracy based on new technologies such as ICT and big data . Democracy up until now has been a passive democracy, in which voters' dissatisfaction is avoided by simplifying issues and collating votes. In contrast, in future democracies, voters' requests will be collected to some extent through data, similar to convenience stores. I believe that a person or institution that can decipher such data in a more persuasive manner will be placed between the executive and the legislative bodies.

 

As the nature of democracy shifts from being indirect and conscious to being direct and unconscious, the nature and content of democratic culture will also change. Performances such as demonstrations and speeches, and theatrical activities such as the power struggles behind political performances (politicians are, in a sense, performers) gradually become less persuasive. Instead, insurance premium rates automatically change according to changes in numerical values (which can be considered a type of dynamic index) such as national income and interest rates*3. Or perhaps we will become a democracy without politics and with fewer laws .

 

*1 Indirect and conscious aggregation of public will, such as the current election

Indirect refers to the fact that the further a person moves away from regional characteristics, or in other words, the more one becomes a member of the Diet, the more fictitious that representation becomes. The representativeness of Diet members means that even though they are elected from a region, they are considered to be representative of the entire population. In order to fine-tune this, a system has been introduced that allows voters to choose political parties using a proportional representation system. On the other hand, conscious aggregation of public will means that the activities of city councilors, prefectural assembly members, etc. are related to accumulating votes for Diet members, but in the process, the public will is selected or assessed.  Nowadays, there are many independent voters, and the function may have deteriorated significantly in this respect, but it is probably deeply connected to the rise of populism in politics. Policies are announced in order to win the favor of independents, but they may not be the policies that are originally needed.

 

*2 More direct and unconscious gathering of public opinion

Directly means collecting data on the requests of citizens and residents and determining what is necessary, but there may be problems such as the privacy of citizens and residents being violated . Depending on the data collected, it may be possible to understand even unconscious needs. It may be possible to more efficiently and accurately calculate the demands of the people and residents than by assuming that members of the Diet represent all citizens. For most people, the disadvantages of privacy invasion might be probably less than the benefits.

 

Rather, the conflict between the rights of the state and powerful individuals will create a rivalry. If anything, there is a more important issue at hand with individualism than with democracy. However, the extent to which these individual human rights issues are guaranteed is determined by the provisions of the Constitution (for example, inner freedom is more guaranteed than freedom of action, freedom of expression is more guaranteed than property freedom, etc.) . Furthermore, as long as there is a right to review constitutional legislation, the rights of individuals can also be guaranteed. For example, if a state collects data on its citizens and uses it in a manner inconsistent with the provisions of the constitution, the state will be judged by its judicial power.

The question is what kind of constitutional system we will have in the age of AI and data, and what kind of capabilities the judicial and legislative powers will have within it.

 

*3 For example, insurance premium rates and tax burden rates change automatically according to changes in numerical values such as national income and interest rates.

 

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Civilizations and value 20 (industrial revolution, natural disasters, diplomacy)

*3 New industrial revolution

It is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial revolution. However, what is usually called the second industrial revolution is when the power source changed from coal to oil, and what is called the third industrial revolution is when computers and the Internet were introduced. Rather, it may be better to combine the first and second industrial revolutions, and the third and fourth industrial revolutions. This is because the nature or classification of each revolution becomes clearer. In English, it would be like adding " great" to " industrial revolution " . Based on this nomenclature, the essence of the first great industrial revolution is the ``substitution of manual labor by machines.'' In contrast, the essence of the second great industrial revolution is the ``replacement of mental labor by machines.'' Another characteristic of this second great industrial revolution is that it is opening up possibilities for the fusion of many science and technologies, such as the introduction of new energy and the fusion of machinery and biotechnology.

 

On the other hand, however, behind this state of development, the problem that ``social structural strength'' has not kept pace with ``technological efficiency'' remains a major issue . In fact, it can be said that the gap is widening. The major feature of the second great industrial revolution is deeply related to the methodology of what should be done to fill this gap and how to proceed with the replacement of brains by machines. It seems to be occurring.

 

The conflict between democracy and totalitarianism may become meaningless. Or perhaps the social sciences will experience even more shock than the natural sciences, and this situation could lead to the creation of a new form of democracy and social science.

Furthermore, in developed countries, human populations are aging. However, in this situation, just as the materials that made up "machines" changed from "wood to steel" during the first industrial revolution, the materials that made up "human resources" changed from "intelligence to artificial intelligence." It may be the cause of this. In a country like Japan, where the aging population is rapidly decreasing and the birthrate is declining, this will likely become the background for the widespread introduction of intellectual ability to replace humans, as well as physical ability connected to it. This is because there is a need for it, and when I say broadly, I mean that it can be a public demand for cities, municipalities, and the country as a whole. During the Industrial Revolution in England, machines were able to be introduced because, despite various frictions, necessity outweighed human labor.

 

In relation to the budget deficit, it will be necessary to use profits from overseas to build new industries in the country in the coming years. However, in reality, there may be many difficulties due to legal regulations and social customs. There is also the problem that it would be cheaper to experiment with these new experiments in developing countries rather than in Japan. The formation of new industries, social science, and democracy in the era of AI and big data are issues that must be urgently addressed.

 

* 4　Possibility of natural disasters (earthquakes, epidemic, global warming)

An unstable factor in Japan is earthquakes that can occur anywhere in the country. Moreover, these earthquakes have the potential to significantly destroy economic bases (Kanto, Nankai Trough). Furthermore, natural disasters (wind and flood damage)  pandemic caused by the current covid virusc and global warming are expected to increase. These natural disasters are caused by external factors, are highly shocking, and cannot be easily prevented by humans. Therefore, it is important to reduce the number of man-made disasters as much as possible on a daily basis . In terms of funding, it is a domestic "portfolio" issue, and at the same time it is also related to the nature of the second great industrial revolution. It is also related to the future prospects of cities and the issue of the aging population and declining birthrate. In rural areas, there is a concentration of population in areas such as prefectural capitals (concentration in urban areas), but it may be possible to more efficiently build and maintain medical and disaster prevention facilities by concentrating the population to some extent. However, there may be a problem with how to concentrate. Compact cities are being talked about, but when considering the impact on the environment and housing (and the impact on the automobile industry), it seems that the hub-and-spoke concept is more useful overall. What size of population is desirable for a city, what type of clustering is desirable, and other issues that are also related to how cities should behave in the new industrial revolution.

 

*5 Diplomatic /Military Conflict between the US and China

Perhaps the most significant external factor for Japan today is the conflict between the United States and China. For this reason, Japan may tend to focus on the United States and China. However, what will emerge from now on is not limited to the rise of China. This is because it appears to be a multipolar development of civilizations in the world. And there are many kinds of civilizations . So far, we have explained the types of civilizations and quasi-civilizations. By paying attention not only to Chinese civilization, but also to Indian civilization, Islamic civilization, and many other quasi-civilizations, and connecting them, the safety of Japan and Japanese quasi-civilizations can be maintained.  Under these circumstances, it may be necessary to reconfirm the state of Japan-US relations from the time Perry arrived on the voyage to the present. The question is whether this alliance is limited to an alliance between nations, or whether it is something more than that.

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