Civilizations and value １9 ( contents of the challenge to Japan)

On the other hand, when it comes to external value, it may be possible to estimate the content of new value to some extent by understanding the content of the challenge . The external problems that Japan is currently facing can be roughly summarized as follows .

 

Contents of the challenge

1　aging and declining birthrate

2　fiscal deficit

3　new industrial revolution

4　Possibility of natural disasters (earthquakes, corona, global warming)

5　Diplomatic /Military Conflict between America and China

These five things should be considered in particular, and we will examine each of their external meanings.

 

1　aging and declining birthrate

A phenomenon in which the death rate declines and the birth rate declines, resulting in an increase in the number of elderly people, a decrease in the number of children, and a rise in the proportion of elderly people. The cause of the increase in the number of elderly people is the development of medical technology, the decrease in the number of children is due to the increase in the number of single people, and the tendency for women to marry later in life as they enter the workforce. There are many other reasons behind the decline in the birth rate, but the problem is not simply that the birth rate should increase. If the ``working-age population'' cannot be maintained at an appropriate level, there is also the problem that a heavy burden will be placed on the child-rearing generation, who will have to look after both the elderly and children. Population issues are affecting various social situations. The increase in the number of elderly people is also a factor in promoting population concentration in large cities in rural areas due to problems with hospitals in rural areas (for example, population concentration in Sapporo in Hokkaido).

 

2　fiscal deficit

The government has set a goal to maintain a healthy income and expenditure throughout each fiscal year (primary balance). However, on the other hand, it has eased monetary policy in order to maintain domestic economic growth and has made fiscal spending for various reasons (from the bursting of the bubble to the coronavirus pandemic). The government issued large amounts of government bonds, which were purchased by the Bank of Japan and Japanese banks. If the economic growth rate is higher than the debt increase rate, the fiscal deficit will be eliminated by the increase in tax revenue. However, the precondition for this is that the primary balance and the cost of debt refinancing be equal to the debt growth rate. Japan was in a deflationary situation and the rate of inflation was low, so even if it issues government bonds (which moves the nominal interest rate), the real interest rate has not increased*. Japan's government bonds have been issued in large quantities, and their prices have risen. The background to this being possible is the accumulation of current account surpluses that have continued for more than 20 years. However, on the other hand, these surpluses have been used to cover emergency expenses related to the postponement of the Olympics and the coronavirus pandemic. Japan's private companies (operating overseas) have profits from direct investment, and the country is not yet heavily dependent on foreign debt. Only with economic growth can tax revenues increase and public finances improve, but Japan's deflationary economy has continued to show no signs of improving. Some scholars refer to this deflationary situation as the "medievalization of the world economy," but the situation with overseas earnings means that even if there is no point in investing in Japan, there is meaning in investing overseas. right.

 

In contrast to economic growth, the aging population and declining birthrate mean an increase in medical and social welfare costs, and we are faced with the problem that compulsory expenses continue to increase at the same rate as the economic situation. Looking at it in this way, it appears that the problem of fiscal deficits is related to the problem of how to allocate a country's assets (portfolio). What is the current account balance obtained from overseas (as domestic population growth is not expected and the multiplier is low, we have no choice but to rely on overseas sources, but it is said that the balance of this current account balance is also on the verge of collapse)? The question is whether only that amount will be sent domestically, or how it will be utilized. This is where the new industrial revolution (Fourth Industrial Revolution) and the reorganization of global supply chains become relevant. This is because the meaning of investing ``domestically'' is gradually increasing.

 

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Civilizations and value １8 ( the gap between social force and technological efficiency )

Due to the influence of external forces, modern Japan has not been able to clarify its cultural ideas to the same extent as it was during the Edo period * 1 , and today's new academic studies are similar to what Western studies were during the Edo period. This is probably a situation that has not yet been clarified . Therefore, it may be fair to say that modern Japan has fought back in a state of cultural and academic uncertainty and ambiguity, even compared to the Edo period *2 . The tools for fighting back have not yet been determined, and this may be why Japan appears to be drifting adrift .

 

 *1 Modern Japan has not been able to clarify its cultural ideas to the same extent as in the Edo period .

During the Edo period, cultural ideas seem to have changed in relatively simple or indigenous forms, partly due to the effects of national isolation. In contrast, cultural ideas have changed in complex and ideological ways due to the influence of Europe in the period before World War II and the United States and the Soviet Union in the period after World War II . For this reason, cultural ideas were not as clear as they were in the Edo period, and even today we can say that we are drifting adrift without being able to navigate. This is one of the reasons why modern Japan has not become like it was during the Meiji Restoration. This may lead us to expect that modern Japan will undergo reforms in a form different from that of the Meiji Restoration.

 

*2 Modern Japan is fighting back in a state of cultural and academic uncertainty, even compared to the Edo period.

At the end of the Edo period, Western science was a new and distinct methodology both culturally and academically. In terms of culture, it will later recede, but while the usefulness of science and technology is relatively easy to clearly identify, the usefulness of culture and social sciences is not clearly obvious. Despite this , it seems that even in modern times there are many places that rely too much on Western methods.

 

Japan's drifting is likely to be deeply connected to the next question of ``what is the essence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution?'' Although there are new values brought about by AI and new energy, the most important significance of the upcoming Fourth Industrial Revolution lies in ``bridging the gap between social structural strength and technological efficiency.' ' This is because there is a possibility that new value will be created.

 

Bridging the gap between social structural strength and technological efficiency

Social structural power is the power to improve life through the development of social organization based on certain values, and technological efficiency is the power to improve life through the development of technology based on certain values. It refers to the power to move. And value has an expanse, or value space. The premise of technological efficiency is natural science, and the methodology for understanding natural phenomena has made steady progress . Information science, physics, biology, and other fields have made progress, and it seems that we are reaching a stage where they are crossing over. But what was the basis of this development of natural science? I think it was mechanics (physics). By expressing power in numbers and using it, it can be said that the ability to produce and move has greatly increased, or is still in the process of increasing. This was also called ``physics imperialism.'' Can it really be said that social structural power has kept pace with such rapid developments in technological efficiency? The fields covered by social structural power may include politics, public administration, and business organizations. One of the reasons why social structural power is inferior to technical efficiency power is that it is considered a field that is not suitable for mechanical expression, and it may be because it has not necessarily been constructed in that way. It seems to me.

 

Max Weber's concepts of modernization included capitalism for the economy and democracy and bureaucracy for politics and administration. However, in a sense, capitalism has been quantified, and to a large extent dynamicalized (interest rates, prices, and economic growth rates are also expressed in quantities, if these can be considered as a kind of force) . On the other hand, it has been difficult to quantify democracy and bureaucracy , so they have not made much progress. Furthermore, democracy and bureaucracy have often clashed, and still do (perhaps especially in terms of the degree of vertical division). Under these circumstances, we are now beginning to see the possibility that democracy and bureaucracy can be quantified and dynamicized from a technical perspective as well. This is because informatization and AI are making this possible.

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Civilizations and value １７ ( forces external and internal )

 3: Thoughts on the future of Japan's quasi-civilization

 

Spengler's concept of the life and destiny of a nation more familiar than Western history , I have tried to explain it using the Japanese mentality of the Edo period as an example . From now on, I would like to consider the future of Japan based on the civilization theory and value theory that I have been considering so far . We will look at Japan's quasi-civilization, external value theory, and introverted value theory, and through this we will think about the theme of ``civilization and values.''

 

My impression from the civilization theory is that the problem of civilization is ultimately a matter of the "arrangement" of various civilizations , and when it comes to the country of Japan , it can be explained using the five forces that I proposed. This can be said to be a problem of "external forces . " This is tied to the question which combine to minimize external pressure and bounce back .

　

Also, in terms of changes in the mentality of the social order considered in the theory of value , where is the mentality of the Japanese people today ? Also, what are the historical challenges facing Japan today ? What are the values that we Japanese people are trying to cultivate in the face of historical challenges , and how are we trying to respond to them ?

 

Value has been considered to be something that arises from external challenges and responses, or from internal life phenomena . For this reason, I would like to begin by enumerating many of the challenges (both external and internal) that Japan is currently facing .

 

Next, I will consider where the internal life phenomena of the Japanese people are now . However, since the psyche of modern Japanese people is influenced by various external forces, it may be difficult to explain it as clearly as it was during the Edo period. However, the mentality of Japan's current social order may correspond to the pattern of the fourth period (the mentality of the old ruling order is in old age, the mentality of the new ruling order is in youth) .

 

In my research on psyche in the Edo period, I briefly mentioned that the new ruling order originally had`` politicized ' ' cultural ideas and emerged with `` new era scholarship '' as its backbone .

 

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