Civilizations and value 25 ( The new image of ancient Greece )

A new industrial revolution has the potential to significantly change this instability , and if it succeeds, we will move even closer to an economy that does not require labor * 1. If anything, this may lead to a new reexamination of the content of public service . It is conceivable that we will enter an era* 2 in which work that is currently considered public service will be shared . Basic income and work sharing for public and semi-public services. I wonder if its appearance will become roughly similar to that of ancient Greece.

 

 *1 Economy that does not require labor

As AI progresses from special general purpose to general general purpose, There is an opinion that the private sector has C (  creative ) , M (management) , and H (hospitality)and other human resources will be unnecessary. In this case, the only elements input into industry are capital and technological elements. In this case, the extreme hypothesis that humans will receive only profits from the factors of production and spend their leisure time will arise. However, rather than reaching that point, it is likely that some form of work sharing will gradually emerge. This is because work is also one of human needs. One type of industry would be public service or public work.

 

*2 An era where public affairs are work-sharing

In an age of aging and declining birthrate, many parts of public affairs are institutionally designed by a quasi-market supported by medical insurance and long-term care insurance. However, many of these, including welfare, may have to be supported by public spending for a while. However, apart from such insurance and welfare, there are many public services that are familiar to people's daily lives. Even today, such public duties are still carried out by a relatively small number of people . (For example, a city with a population of 150,000 people may have one or two people in charge of disaster prevention.) However, there is still a need for volunteers in many areas. On the other hand, volunteer service activities can be tedious and restrictive, so I think that public service or public work, including volunteer work, will become a work-sharing occupation. Taking a look at Scandinavia and other countries, it will be necessary to redefine public service and work-sharing as a part of business, in order to create a society in which people can survive on basic income and work-sharing.

 

Natural disasters, that is, natural disasters, are currently impossible to control, and the only question is whether we can minimize disasters caused by human factors . As for diplomacy, as we discussed in the civilization theory, in order to preserve our unique civilization as quasi-civilizations, it will be necessary for quasi-civilizations that are not major powers to cooperate with each other. It may be desirable to form a kind of federation .

　

Under the conditions of a new democratic culture and new scholarship that are gradually becoming clearer ,  the Equalization of human capital* 1 is progressing . At the same time, the generational balance will also move toward artificial equalization *2 . In the long run, the required workforce in private industry may gradually decline . For this reason, it seems that work sharing in public affairs is deeply related to the way people give meaning to their existence. Perhaps we are waiting for a ``mysterious outcome'' in which a new democracy determines the nature of the public ownership of productive power *3 .

 

*1 the Equalizationof human capital

A new democratic culture collects public opinion directly and unconsciously, so it does not make radical claims compared to elections that collect public opinion indirectly and consciously, and it does not necessarily lead to public opinion favoring the elderly (superficially). (Assuming that they aim for harmony in the long term rather than asserting their own interests), the result is that human capital consisting of men and women of all ages will become equalized. In addition, new scholarship will have to provide knowledge that can serve as the foundation for such a new democratic culture.

 

*2 Generational balance is also artificially equalized.

It is not enough to simply gather up direct and unconscious public opinion; by summarizing them, a comprehensively desirable picture can be discovered. This will ultimately lead to a balance across generations.

 

*3 New democracy determines the nature of public ownership of productive power

If a new democracy directly or unconsciously gathers public opinion, what kind of work style will people ultimately prefer? Perhaps they want to be guaranteed employment in a public institution, and on top of that, they want a moderate amount of work. Until now, ``labor'' has been necessary to produce the consumer goods and public goods that humans need. If machines are to replace many of the brains and physical labor, then we will need to create self-governing organizations so that we are not controlled by the machines or those who operate them.

Such a society, so to speak, would be like the former slaves being replaced by machines, and it might become something like the polis of ancient Greece.

The image of ancient Greece is not limited to that. This may lead to the revival of metaphysics in its relationship with synthesis. With the advent of AI, metaphysics, a discipline that imagines synthesis and wholeness, even if it is not backed by rationality or experimentation, may be reconsidered. This is because AI can connect concepts that are completely unpredictable, and in order for humans to catch up, humans themselves must improve their ability to connect concepts more intuitively.

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Civilizations and value 2４ (constitutional revision , labor force)

If a new democracy and new academic science emerge in this way, the current debate over constitutional revision alone may become meaningless *1 . It will be necessary to keep a close eye on developments in other countries *2 in this area .

 

 *1 The current debate on constitutional revision will become meaningless.

Until now, discussions on constitutional revision have been aimed at increasing Japan's independence , but the relationship between the governing body and the people has changed from an indirect, conscious democracy to a direct, unconscious democracy. This is likely to become a central issue in constitutional revision. The idea of pacifism will probably be affected depending on which of these ideals of democracy one takes. The question of whether to adopt the idea of peace or to defend the large amount of overseas assets that have already been accumulated (which is closely related to the domestic financial situation), issues that are common even before the war, are also reflected in the filter of democracy. The answer will vary depending on the type .

 

*2 Movements in other countries

China is consciously trying to establish this kind of direct and unconscious approach under a powerful regime. However, since China is proceeding on the assumption that it will be ruled by the Communist Party, even if this new democracy becomes technically possible, there is naturally a risk that it will be used as a tool for authoritarian control. For these reasons, in the sense of decentralization, it is possible to consider the establishment of a new academic center that will compete with AI. The question is whether value lies in a single party that is biased, or whether value lies in the center of learning, but even if it is called the center of learning, under the current situation, imperfections remain. Alternatively, it may be expected that the current indirect democratic system will remain in some parts. The three powers are divided, and the separation of powers becomes four and five powers.

 

The aging population and declining birthrate will inevitably appear as a state of transition in the Japanese economy, as all men and women of all ages enter the labor force *1. If the supply capacity resulting from the labor force cannot keep up with the increase in medical expenses, the fiscal deficit will continue to increase due to the increase in welfare and medical expenses . Although the former can be covered by ``work style reform'' and the latter by a quasi-market system* 2 , ``public burdens'' will inevitably increase. Public burdens also redistribute income and can increase domestic demand and maintain economic growth, but public burdens that flow toward medical expenses may not lead to increased domestic demand.

 

*1 Employing all men and women of all ages into the labor force

The declining birthrate and aging population will reduce the labor force participation rate for some time. In order to overcome this situation, the introduction of robots and immigration may be considered, but from now on, it will probably be time for a ``society in which all citizens are dynamically engaged'' to include all men and women of all ages in the labor force. This is due to the timing of when pension payments begin, but there is a risk that introducing immigrants too easily will leave behind social problems. In fact, it is hoped that Japan will attract talented people from other countries, and Japan is currently looking for such an attraction. One way to make Japan more attractive would be to take advantage of the fact that the United Nations University headquarters is located in Tokyo and build a center of world policy scholarship in Japan, centered on the United Nations University.

 

Even with the introduction of robots and the cooperation of immigrants, it will be impossible to bring all Japanese people, young and old, into the labor force. The ideal would be to keep the economy running in a way that does not delay the start of pension payments as Japan recovers from the declining birthrate.

 

 *2 Quasi-market system

In an aging society with a declining birthrate, medical insurance and long-term care insurance will probably become financially strained. This is because it is highly dependent on the labor force participation rate. These insurance systems are industries in which markets have been artificially created through insurance premiums and public burdens. If the burden of insurance premiums is insufficient, it will be supported by public burden, but in the case of Japan, in a macro sense, this means collecting taxes (and government bonds) from the private sector that has overseas assets. It's here. However, if overseas assets are lost due to foreign influence, it will no longer be possible to do so, so it may be inevitable that Japan will eventually increase its military power (even if it focuses mainly on security relations through diplomacy).  Considering this, it is important that some industry (especially manufacturing) remains in the country, and a weaker yen may be more ideal than a strong yen. This is because the quasi-market system that supports medical and long-term care insurance is based on a substantive market system. Each of these constitutes a part of the economy, but there should be a concept of a more fundamental economic base.

 

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Civilizations and value 23 (progress of social science based on physics imperialism )

However, we must also point out that we are now at a point where it is possible to technologically advance democracy. Democracy has become technologically capable of absorbing the will of the people from the indirect to the direct, from the conscious to the unconscious. Is it better to leave the law blank, or should the public's will be gathered directly or unconsciously to form the law? Issues of regulation and freedom will likely arise even in a democracy.

 

On the other hand, new scholarship is also related to new democracy, and it seems likely that the focus will be on ``academics that bridge the gap between technological efficiency and social structural power.''

 

Looking at it from another angle, it may mean creating a system that can combine human knowledge to counter the development of AI . One such idea could be to ``create an academic capital by combining the real and virtual'' in a different sense from the political and administrative capital.

 

Also, although it is a modest international organization, the headquarters of the United Nations University is located in Japan. If the United Nations University were to be further enhanced and become a place for forming academic fields that form the basis of policy, it would increase Japan's international value and could be of international significance. It will also be an opportunity to attract excellent human resources from around the world to Japan.

 

When it comes to new disciplines, new energy, biotechnology, and the fusion of such new sciences are attracting more attention. However, what is at the center of this second great industrial revolution is the ``mechanization of the brain.'' Behind this is the problem of the evolution of social science, which is lagging far behind the development of science and technology. It would be important to incorporate elements of synthesis and especially mechanics into the social sciences. This is because one of the major reasons for the large difference in the speed of development between the social sciences and the natural sciences seems to have been whether or not they adopted the idea of mechanics* . Mechanics has evolved from classical mechanics to quantum mechanics, and has had a great influence on other disciplines (sometimes referred to as physics imperialism).

 

＊One of the major reasons for the large difference in the speed of development between social science and natural science seems to have been whether or not they adopted the idea of mechanics.

In fact, there are genres in the social sciences that seem to have adopted a mechanical way of thinking. That would be economics. In economics, concepts such as economic growth rate, interest rates, prices, investment, and savings have been viewed as numerical values and quantities, but these concepts could also be viewed as a force. Indeed, economics, especially classical economics, has played a role similar to that of physics imperialism within the social science genre. Although it may be inferior to this, Marxian economics also had a different dynamic behind it than classical economics. Statistics has come to occupy a large part in the world of physics, but this may also provide some suggestions for the social sciences, which must rely on statistics as their foundation. In a sense, just as physics is a biased worldview, economics is also a biased worldview. However, isn't globalism precisely the effort to realize that worldview in the real world? In this sense , it can be said that the 21st century in which we live has so far been an era of economic imperialism, following on from the 20th century when communism was a powerful force. I wonder if an era of ``Civilization Studies'' will emerge to overcome this problem .

 

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Civilizations and value 22 (not just cars that will be automated)

Deeply related to the age of AI and data, many things in human society will be able to be understood more accurately using numerical values. In other words, the number of genres that can be controlled will increase more than ever before.

 

This has been reflected particularly quickly in sectors of the economy. It can be said that it is a genre that has been digitized for a long time. Economics has continued to build a self-righteous worldview centered on the concept of "capital" in the 20th century, and even in the 21st century, but it is now beginning to show signs of change. Globalism has been thought to bring prosperity to the world through the effective use of resources by freeing the movement of capital, goods, and people. However, in reality, an unequal society has emerged in every corner of the world. Correcting disparities has not been possible in traditional democracy.

 

There are two levels to this problem. One of these is the question of whether the economic world should be defined at the global, civilizational, or national level. And it appears that civilization is beginning to show signs of becoming that way. This situation also seems to be related to the rise of China and India. China and India are nations and civilizations. Because of this situation, these two civilizations were included in the local civilization when classifying civilizations. This is because the factors that lead to integration seem to be familial and cultural rather than contractual.

 

Another possibility is that a system that improves on traditional democracy may be adopted by a nation. This improved democracy is not a society in which insurance premium rates and tax rates are determined through debates among members. This means that we will become a society in which insurance premium rates and tax rates are automatically adjusted based on figures such as national income, interest rates, and inflation rates. I believe we are on the verge of a society in which various issues faced by the people will be decided in a self-driving manner, rather than by complicated laws that the people cannot understand. It's not just cars that will be automated, but society itself as well. This direction is compatible with the development of smart cities, and also seems to be more compatible as a solution to global economic adjustment than democracy. In the end, we will arrive at a society that does not require politicians or civil servants to act as coordinators, and taxes may be significantly lower. However, since labor will gradually become unnecessary in the private sector as well, the nature of the workforce may be determined by the conflict between the private and public sectors.

 

*4 A form of reduced law that does not involve politics

It is said that the breakthrough of European civilization was due to the democratic system and the industrial revolution. In particular, since the history of Britain was the beginning of the first great industrial revolution, it is difficult to see clearly how the development of democracy and the industrial revolution were related, but for that reason, it would be difficult to see clearly how the development of democracy and the industrial revolution are related . I think this will be helpful when thinking about it. With the onset of the second great industrial revolution, the question is whether it is better for countries and governments to have more or less control power. In the state and government, the maintenance of vested interests has been deeply involved in control. For this reason, it may be possible that countries that consciously create an institutional space that eliminates politics and reduces the number of laws in the transition to new technologies may temporarily have an advantage. It can be said that this is a precious time when such a moment is needed in industrial policy.

 

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Civilizations and value 21 (direct and unconscious democracy)

While the culture and science of the new era have not yet become clear, the youthful forces of the new social order will probably build a new era of Japan . The first thing to be concerned about is what the culture of the new era will be and what the new science will be .

 

 the culture of the new era will likely be a kind of democratic culture that is different from that of the past . The 2021 US presidential election gave us a sense that SNS is already starting to have a major influence on old media. But it probably won't stop there. Rather than indirectly and consciously concentrating the will of the people*1 as is the case with current elections, it will become possible to condense the will of the people more directly and unconsciously*2. It's AI I think we are moving closer to a democracy based on new technologies such as ICT and big data . Democracy up until now has been a passive democracy, in which voters' dissatisfaction is avoided by simplifying issues and collating votes. In contrast, in future democracies, voters' requests will be collected to some extent through data, similar to convenience stores. I believe that a person or institution that can decipher such data in a more persuasive manner will be placed between the executive and the legislative bodies.

 

As the nature of democracy shifts from being indirect and conscious to being direct and unconscious, the nature and content of democratic culture will also change. Performances such as demonstrations and speeches, and theatrical activities such as the power struggles behind political performances (politicians are, in a sense, performers) gradually become less persuasive. Instead, insurance premium rates automatically change according to changes in numerical values (which can be considered a type of dynamic index) such as national income and interest rates*3. Or perhaps we will become a democracy without politics and with fewer laws .

 

*1 Indirect and conscious aggregation of public will, such as the current election

Indirect refers to the fact that the further a person moves away from regional characteristics, or in other words, the more one becomes a member of the Diet, the more fictitious that representation becomes. The representativeness of Diet members means that even though they are elected from a region, they are considered to be representative of the entire population. In order to fine-tune this, a system has been introduced that allows voters to choose political parties using a proportional representation system. On the other hand, conscious aggregation of public will means that the activities of city councilors, prefectural assembly members, etc. are related to accumulating votes for Diet members, but in the process, the public will is selected or assessed.  Nowadays, there are many independent voters, and the function may have deteriorated significantly in this respect, but it is probably deeply connected to the rise of populism in politics. Policies are announced in order to win the favor of independents, but they may not be the policies that are originally needed.

 

*2 More direct and unconscious gathering of public opinion

Directly means collecting data on the requests of citizens and residents and determining what is necessary, but there may be problems such as the privacy of citizens and residents being violated . Depending on the data collected, it may be possible to understand even unconscious needs. It may be possible to more efficiently and accurately calculate the demands of the people and residents than by assuming that members of the Diet represent all citizens. For most people, the disadvantages of privacy invasion might be probably less than the benefits.

 

Rather, the conflict between the rights of the state and powerful individuals will create a rivalry. If anything, there is a more important issue at hand with individualism than with democracy. However, the extent to which these individual human rights issues are guaranteed is determined by the provisions of the Constitution (for example, inner freedom is more guaranteed than freedom of action, freedom of expression is more guaranteed than property freedom, etc.) . Furthermore, as long as there is a right to review constitutional legislation, the rights of individuals can also be guaranteed. For example, if a state collects data on its citizens and uses it in a manner inconsistent with the provisions of the constitution, the state will be judged by its judicial power.

The question is what kind of constitutional system we will have in the age of AI and data, and what kind of capabilities the judicial and legislative powers will have within it.

 

*3 For example, insurance premium rates and tax burden rates change automatically according to changes in numerical values such as national income and interest rates.

 

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Civilizations and value 20 (industrial revolution, natural disasters, diplomacy)

*3 New industrial revolution

It is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial revolution. However, what is usually called the second industrial revolution is when the power source changed from coal to oil, and what is called the third industrial revolution is when computers and the Internet were introduced. Rather, it may be better to combine the first and second industrial revolutions, and the third and fourth industrial revolutions. This is because the nature or classification of each revolution becomes clearer. In English, it would be like adding " great" to " industrial revolution " . Based on this nomenclature, the essence of the first great industrial revolution is the ``substitution of manual labor by machines.'' In contrast, the essence of the second great industrial revolution is the ``replacement of mental labor by machines.'' Another characteristic of this second great industrial revolution is that it is opening up possibilities for the fusion of many science and technologies, such as the introduction of new energy and the fusion of machinery and biotechnology.

 

On the other hand, however, behind this state of development, the problem that ``social structural strength'' has not kept pace with ``technological efficiency'' remains a major issue . In fact, it can be said that the gap is widening. The major feature of the second great industrial revolution is deeply related to the methodology of what should be done to fill this gap and how to proceed with the replacement of brains by machines. It seems to be occurring.

 

The conflict between democracy and totalitarianism may become meaningless. Or perhaps the social sciences will experience even more shock than the natural sciences, and this situation could lead to the creation of a new form of democracy and social science.

Furthermore, in developed countries, human populations are aging. However, in this situation, just as the materials that made up "machines" changed from "wood to steel" during the first industrial revolution, the materials that made up "human resources" changed from "intelligence to artificial intelligence." It may be the cause of this. In a country like Japan, where the aging population is rapidly decreasing and the birthrate is declining, this will likely become the background for the widespread introduction of intellectual ability to replace humans, as well as physical ability connected to it. This is because there is a need for it, and when I say broadly, I mean that it can be a public demand for cities, municipalities, and the country as a whole. During the Industrial Revolution in England, machines were able to be introduced because, despite various frictions, necessity outweighed human labor.

 

In relation to the budget deficit, it will be necessary to use profits from overseas to build new industries in the country in the coming years. However, in reality, there may be many difficulties due to legal regulations and social customs. There is also the problem that it would be cheaper to experiment with these new experiments in developing countries rather than in Japan. The formation of new industries, social science, and democracy in the era of AI and big data are issues that must be urgently addressed.

 

* 4　Possibility of natural disasters (earthquakes, epidemic, global warming)

An unstable factor in Japan is earthquakes that can occur anywhere in the country. Moreover, these earthquakes have the potential to significantly destroy economic bases (Kanto, Nankai Trough). Furthermore, natural disasters (wind and flood damage)  pandemic caused by the current covid virusc and global warming are expected to increase. These natural disasters are caused by external factors, are highly shocking, and cannot be easily prevented by humans. Therefore, it is important to reduce the number of man-made disasters as much as possible on a daily basis . In terms of funding, it is a domestic "portfolio" issue, and at the same time it is also related to the nature of the second great industrial revolution. It is also related to the future prospects of cities and the issue of the aging population and declining birthrate. In rural areas, there is a concentration of population in areas such as prefectural capitals (concentration in urban areas), but it may be possible to more efficiently build and maintain medical and disaster prevention facilities by concentrating the population to some extent. However, there may be a problem with how to concentrate. Compact cities are being talked about, but when considering the impact on the environment and housing (and the impact on the automobile industry), it seems that the hub-and-spoke concept is more useful overall. What size of population is desirable for a city, what type of clustering is desirable, and other issues that are also related to how cities should behave in the new industrial revolution.

 

*5 Diplomatic /Military Conflict between the US and China

Perhaps the most significant external factor for Japan today is the conflict between the United States and China. For this reason, Japan may tend to focus on the United States and China. However, what will emerge from now on is not limited to the rise of China. This is because it appears to be a multipolar development of civilizations in the world. And there are many kinds of civilizations . So far, we have explained the types of civilizations and quasi-civilizations. By paying attention not only to Chinese civilization, but also to Indian civilization, Islamic civilization, and many other quasi-civilizations, and connecting them, the safety of Japan and Japanese quasi-civilizations can be maintained.  Under these circumstances, it may be necessary to reconfirm the state of Japan-US relations from the time Perry arrived on the voyage to the present. The question is whether this alliance is limited to an alliance between nations, or whether it is something more than that.

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Civilizations and value １9 ( contents of the challenge to Japan)

On the other hand, when it comes to external value, it may be possible to estimate the content of new value to some extent by understanding the content of the challenge . The external problems that Japan is currently facing can be roughly summarized as follows .

 

Contents of the challenge

1　aging and declining birthrate

2　fiscal deficit

3　new industrial revolution

4　Possibility of natural disasters (earthquakes, corona, global warming)

5　Diplomatic /Military Conflict between America and China

These five things should be considered in particular, and we will examine each of their external meanings.

 

1　aging and declining birthrate

A phenomenon in which the death rate declines and the birth rate declines, resulting in an increase in the number of elderly people, a decrease in the number of children, and a rise in the proportion of elderly people. The cause of the increase in the number of elderly people is the development of medical technology, the decrease in the number of children is due to the increase in the number of single people, and the tendency for women to marry later in life as they enter the workforce. There are many other reasons behind the decline in the birth rate, but the problem is not simply that the birth rate should increase. If the ``working-age population'' cannot be maintained at an appropriate level, there is also the problem that a heavy burden will be placed on the child-rearing generation, who will have to look after both the elderly and children. Population issues are affecting various social situations. The increase in the number of elderly people is also a factor in promoting population concentration in large cities in rural areas due to problems with hospitals in rural areas (for example, population concentration in Sapporo in Hokkaido).

 

2　fiscal deficit

The government has set a goal to maintain a healthy income and expenditure throughout each fiscal year (primary balance). However, on the other hand, it has eased monetary policy in order to maintain domestic economic growth and has made fiscal spending for various reasons (from the bursting of the bubble to the coronavirus pandemic). The government issued large amounts of government bonds, which were purchased by the Bank of Japan and Japanese banks. If the economic growth rate is higher than the debt increase rate, the fiscal deficit will be eliminated by the increase in tax revenue. However, the precondition for this is that the primary balance and the cost of debt refinancing be equal to the debt growth rate. Japan was in a deflationary situation and the rate of inflation was low, so even if it issues government bonds (which moves the nominal interest rate), the real interest rate has not increased*. Japan's government bonds have been issued in large quantities, and their prices have risen. The background to this being possible is the accumulation of current account surpluses that have continued for more than 20 years. However, on the other hand, these surpluses have been used to cover emergency expenses related to the postponement of the Olympics and the coronavirus pandemic. Japan's private companies (operating overseas) have profits from direct investment, and the country is not yet heavily dependent on foreign debt. Only with economic growth can tax revenues increase and public finances improve, but Japan's deflationary economy has continued to show no signs of improving. Some scholars refer to this deflationary situation as the "medievalization of the world economy," but the situation with overseas earnings means that even if there is no point in investing in Japan, there is meaning in investing overseas. right.

 

In contrast to economic growth, the aging population and declining birthrate mean an increase in medical and social welfare costs, and we are faced with the problem that compulsory expenses continue to increase at the same rate as the economic situation. Looking at it in this way, it appears that the problem of fiscal deficits is related to the problem of how to allocate a country's assets (portfolio). What is the current account balance obtained from overseas (as domestic population growth is not expected and the multiplier is low, we have no choice but to rely on overseas sources, but it is said that the balance of this current account balance is also on the verge of collapse)? The question is whether only that amount will be sent domestically, or how it will be utilized. This is where the new industrial revolution (Fourth Industrial Revolution) and the reorganization of global supply chains become relevant. This is because the meaning of investing ``domestically'' is gradually increasing.

 

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Civilizations and value １8 ( the gap between social force and technological efficiency )

Due to the influence of external forces, modern Japan has not been able to clarify its cultural ideas to the same extent as it was during the Edo period * 1 , and today's new academic studies are similar to what Western studies were during the Edo period. This is probably a situation that has not yet been clarified . Therefore, it may be fair to say that modern Japan has fought back in a state of cultural and academic uncertainty and ambiguity, even compared to the Edo period *2 . The tools for fighting back have not yet been determined, and this may be why Japan appears to be drifting adrift .

 

 *1 Modern Japan has not been able to clarify its cultural ideas to the same extent as in the Edo period .

During the Edo period, cultural ideas seem to have changed in relatively simple or indigenous forms, partly due to the effects of national isolation. In contrast, cultural ideas have changed in complex and ideological ways due to the influence of Europe in the period before World War II and the United States and the Soviet Union in the period after World War II . For this reason, cultural ideas were not as clear as they were in the Edo period, and even today we can say that we are drifting adrift without being able to navigate. This is one of the reasons why modern Japan has not become like it was during the Meiji Restoration. This may lead us to expect that modern Japan will undergo reforms in a form different from that of the Meiji Restoration.

 

*2 Modern Japan is fighting back in a state of cultural and academic uncertainty, even compared to the Edo period.

At the end of the Edo period, Western science was a new and distinct methodology both culturally and academically. In terms of culture, it will later recede, but while the usefulness of science and technology is relatively easy to clearly identify, the usefulness of culture and social sciences is not clearly obvious. Despite this , it seems that even in modern times there are many places that rely too much on Western methods.

 

Japan's drifting is likely to be deeply connected to the next question of ``what is the essence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution?'' Although there are new values brought about by AI and new energy, the most important significance of the upcoming Fourth Industrial Revolution lies in ``bridging the gap between social structural strength and technological efficiency.' ' This is because there is a possibility that new value will be created.

 

Bridging the gap between social structural strength and technological efficiency

Social structural power is the power to improve life through the development of social organization based on certain values, and technological efficiency is the power to improve life through the development of technology based on certain values. It refers to the power to move. And value has an expanse, or value space. The premise of technological efficiency is natural science, and the methodology for understanding natural phenomena has made steady progress . Information science, physics, biology, and other fields have made progress, and it seems that we are reaching a stage where they are crossing over. But what was the basis of this development of natural science? I think it was mechanics (physics). By expressing power in numbers and using it, it can be said that the ability to produce and move has greatly increased, or is still in the process of increasing. This was also called ``physics imperialism.'' Can it really be said that social structural power has kept pace with such rapid developments in technological efficiency? The fields covered by social structural power may include politics, public administration, and business organizations. One of the reasons why social structural power is inferior to technical efficiency power is that it is considered a field that is not suitable for mechanical expression, and it may be because it has not necessarily been constructed in that way. It seems to me.

 

Max Weber's concepts of modernization included capitalism for the economy and democracy and bureaucracy for politics and administration. However, in a sense, capitalism has been quantified, and to a large extent dynamicalized (interest rates, prices, and economic growth rates are also expressed in quantities, if these can be considered as a kind of force) . On the other hand, it has been difficult to quantify democracy and bureaucracy , so they have not made much progress. Furthermore, democracy and bureaucracy have often clashed, and still do (perhaps especially in terms of the degree of vertical division). Under these circumstances, we are now beginning to see the possibility that democracy and bureaucracy can be quantified and dynamicized from a technical perspective as well. This is because informatization and AI are making this possible.

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Civilizations and value １７ ( forces external and internal )

 3: Thoughts on the future of Japan's quasi-civilization

 

Spengler's concept of the life and destiny of a nation more familiar than Western history , I have tried to explain it using the Japanese mentality of the Edo period as an example . From now on, I would like to consider the future of Japan based on the civilization theory and value theory that I have been considering so far . We will look at Japan's quasi-civilization, external value theory, and introverted value theory, and through this we will think about the theme of ``civilization and values.''

 

My impression from the civilization theory is that the problem of civilization is ultimately a matter of the "arrangement" of various civilizations , and when it comes to the country of Japan , it can be explained using the five forces that I proposed. This can be said to be a problem of "external forces . " This is tied to the question which combine to minimize external pressure and bounce back .

　

Also, in terms of changes in the mentality of the social order considered in the theory of value , where is the mentality of the Japanese people today ? Also, what are the historical challenges facing Japan today ? What are the values that we Japanese people are trying to cultivate in the face of historical challenges , and how are we trying to respond to them ?

 

Value has been considered to be something that arises from external challenges and responses, or from internal life phenomena . For this reason, I would like to begin by enumerating many of the challenges (both external and internal) that Japan is currently facing .

 

Next, I will consider where the internal life phenomena of the Japanese people are now . However, since the psyche of modern Japanese people is influenced by various external forces, it may be difficult to explain it as clearly as it was during the Edo period. However, the mentality of Japan's current social order may correspond to the pattern of the fourth period (the mentality of the old ruling order is in old age, the mentality of the new ruling order is in youth) .

 

In my research on psyche in the Edo period, I briefly mentioned that the new ruling order originally had`` politicized ' ' cultural ideas and emerged with `` new era scholarship '' as its backbone .

 

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Civilizations and value １６ ( Tokyo era - social order in opened system )

the Meiji Restoration to the present can be called the Tokyo era*1, and it can be said that it was an era in which even greater external forces were exerted than the Black Ships. In all cases, the United States and the United Kingdom*2 were at the center of this. Conversely, it may have been China and Korea*3 that were subject to external forces from Japan. Regarding the Tokyo era, it may be necessary to consider the changes in mentality in the social order, but the influence of external forces (America, England, Korea, China, Russia) has made it extremely complex, making it difficult to see its true nature. 4, I will conclude my discussion of values and the introvert model here, having captured the characteristics of the Japanese psyche in a simple form using the closed model.

 

 

*1 Tokyo era

The Tokyo period refers to the era from the Meiji era to the present day. This era is still ongoing. In terms of social order, the Tokyo era may be divided into two. This is because the era is divided into the Meiji Constitution era and the Japanese Constitution era. Looking at social order, it would be problematic to mechanically divide it into four categories within the Meiji system and four categories during the era of the Japanese Constitution. This is because, in Japan's case, the social order was partially forced to change after its defeat in World War II . One thing that can be said consistently from the Meiji era to the Reiwa era is that bureaucrats have ruled. Before the war, the military bureaucracy was also powerful. The difference was that the economic bureaucracy was powerful after the war. In terms of social order, the social order centered on the economic bureaucracy began to grow from about half way through the social order centered on the military, and the social order based on the economic bureaucracy has now passed its maturity stage and is now heading toward decline. It may be the image of Japan. If so, a new social force should have emerged around the time when the economic bureaucracy was at its peak, and in the future it may well be called the ``information bureaucracy.'' The intelligence bureaucracy may not yet have established its organizational base.

 

 

*2 America, UK

The most influential external forces were probably the United States and the United Kingdom. With Perry's arrival, Japan was opened to the United States. However, after that, Japan came to rely on Britain's world strategy rather than America's. During the Meiji period, Japan borrowed the best from other Western countries, so it can be said that it was influenced by a plurality of external forces. After World War I, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance ended (continued for 20 years). After that, Japan pursued its own path for a while. After World War II, the United States rested on America's global strategy under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. And it continues to this day (continuing for 77 years). The difference between after World War II and after the Meiji Restoration is that after World War II, Japan was overwhelmingly under the influence of the United States. However, that may have happened after the security struggle. The era when Japan followed its own path could be said to be a time when Japan itself had a global strategy, but the values that Japan sought to define were not universal. For this reason, in a sense, the unique era may have been connected to the Edo period in the sense of Japanese people. The way Japan is perceived will change greatly depending on whether one views the Meiji Constitution era and the Japanese Constitution era as two eras of different social orders, or as one continuous social order. In modern times, it may be often seen as two different social orders. However, unconsciously it seems to be a continuous social order. My impression is that this order is reaching its old age, and that the Tokyo era is coming to an end.

 

※３China, North Korea

Modern Japan is trying to stand between the United States and China, but it can be said that it has been receiving external forces from China and Korea for a long time. However, Japan may have been applying external force to China and Korea for a longer period of time. This was due to the fact that Japan had long been superior to these two regions both militarily and economically, and continued to have influence. That has been changing since the 1990s. China, Taiwan, South Korea, and North Korea have each developed (although North Korea is limited to nuclear forces) and have gradually shifted to influence Japan. In contrast, Japan's social order, as mentioned earlier, is in the old age of the Tokyo era. Among these external forces, Japan is located between the United States and China. From the old age of the Tokyo era, how to build a new social order will become important as an internal value. In terms of external value, it will be important for Japan to link Taiwan and South Korea to its side in line with America's global strategy. I think that propaganda, culture, and religion will also be squeezed out in the same way.

 

* 4 There is a fear that the true nature of the matter may become invisible.

In order to examine the transformation of introverted values, we have looked at the Edo period as a closed model. In line with this, I have adopted a simple open model that regards the period after the Meiji era as the Tokyo era, and here I have adopted the idea of viewing the Meiji constitutional order and the Japanese constitutional order as one social order. On the other hand,  the world strategies of the United Kingdom and the United States have exerted influence on Japan as external forces, and in recent years, as the social order of the Tokyo era has entered the aging process, the external power of China and Korea has increased. I have seen Japan as being caught in the middle. I have briefly described the framework of the open model, but when considering the vitality of Japan's quasi-civilization, I believe that what is more essential is introverted value transformation. For this reason, I would like to put aside the issue of external forces for the time being and think about the future of Japan's quasi-civilization.

 

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Civilizations and value １５ ( an example as introvert-type value transformation )

Looking at the period in which thinkers were born, we can see that in the first period, Neo-Confucianism became official and the Sengoku samurai ethos was absorbed by Yomeigaku, which was seen in Toju Nakae, and the infancy of the new social order and the maturation of the old social order. It can be seen from Banzan Kumazawa that the periods overlapped . A phenomenon that indicates maturity is shown in the situation of accepting diverse values. However, Yomeigaku lost its power in the second period. The fact that Soko Yamaga  and others rejected both Neo-Confucianism and Yomeigaku, and left a great influence on future generations as the founders of ancient studies (Confucianism) and systemists of Bushido, can be said to be the ideological fruit of the values of the old social order .  Also, during this period, under exceptional circumstances, Keichyu was engaged in activities that would become the founder of Kokugaku.

 

In contrast, the second period saw the maturation of Neo-Confucianism and a reaction against it. The maturation of Neo-Confucianism can be seen in Ekiken Kaibara and Hakuseki Arai's pursuit of the knowledge of Kakubutu , but the mainstream phenomenon is maturation, and it was probably a humanistic reaction to the formalization of Neo-Confucianism. The classical studies of Jinsai Ito and Sorai Ogyu are characteristic of the second period , which can be called the period of youth. At the same time, there was a strong reaction from Neo-Confucianism, and that was Ansai Yamazaki. The controversy between government and academia pushed Ogyu Sorai to the side of social order, and Edo period thought reached its peak. Kokugaku, which began to grow for the same reasons as ancient studies, grew little by little, as seen in Mabuchi Kamono . As an exceptional situation, the ideas of Shoeki Ando  were born. It is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that the main thinkers were not the samurai of the ruling class, as evidenced by the economic growth during this period due to social stability .  Jinsai Ito, Ansai Yamazaki ,  Mabuchi Kamono, and Shoeki Ando  were not samurai warriors, and Baigan Ishida 's philosophy of mind can be said to have the aspect of reaching the masses .

 

The third period began with Sorai Ogyu. Although the interpretation of nature as an objective world was abandoned, economics was born regarding human society and was inherited by Shundai Dazai and Toshiaki Honda. A critical spirit that shows maturity appeared in Nakamoto Tominaga  and Banto Yamagata . The interpretation of nature, which was outside the scope of Sorai , began with Baien Miura , and the development of Dutch studies as the infancy of a new social order began with translation . The activities of Genpaku Sugita and Ryotaku Maeno can be cited , but during this period , Dutch studies remained of academic and economic interest. The third period was also the period when merchant ideas spread to the samurai class, and this phenomenon can be seen in Seiryo Kaiho's interpretation of human relationships .

Furthermore, while classical studies reached great maturity with Sorai Ogyu, Kokugaku reached its peak with Norinaga Motoori. This phenomenon is probably an exceptional phenomenon. Shoeki Ando in the second period and Baien Miura in this period were also exceptional phenomena, but because they were located in remote areas, there were no successors and the business was not passed on. In the fourth period, masters of practical studies and military tactics emerged from among those who had studied Dutch studies . At the same time, emotional leaders such as Atsutane Hirata and Shoin Yoshida emerged as political ideologues.

 

As a closed model, I have been thinking about the qualitative psychological changes in the social order during Japan's ``Edo period,'' particularly as an example of the `` four periods . ' ' We have looked at the Edo period as an example of Spengler's introvert-type value transformation , but behind these superficial movements, we can observe the values of the Japanese people in this era , their lives, or their destiny. It might be possible. With the addition of external forces such as the Black Ships , the Japanese fought back with the Meiji Restoration .

Civilizations and value 14 ( Fourth period in Edo era )

In the fourth period, the leaders of Dutch studies that arose in the third period changed from doctors and agriculturalists to military strategists.

 

Japanese studies have also become politicized. Examples include Atsutane Hirata*1 and Yukoku Fujita*2's  Mito studies. What is remarkable is the politicization of Confucianism, including Shozan Sakuma *3, Shonan Yokoi *4, and Shoin Yoshida *5. In terms of economics, there are Nobuhiro Sato, who envisioned an absolutist state, and Sontoku Ninomiya, an agricultural politician. The leaders of Dutch studies became those who accepted not only Western natural sciences but also social sciences , producing figures who would lead the Meiji period . Examples include Yukichi Fukuzawa*8, Amane Nishi*9, and Hiroyuki Kato*10. It can also be said that the politicization of Confucianism had an influence on the Imperial Rescript on Education and the Civil Code, and Kokugaku had an influence on the Constitution of Japan.

 

 *1　Atsutane Hirata turned Kokugaku into a religion with a theory that was different from that of his master who valued positivism. The Hirata school spread among wealthy local farmers and priests, and had a great influence on the Sonno-movement at the end of the Edo period.

 

*2　Yukoku Fujita was the founder of the late Mito studies. He devoted himself to compiling the History of Great Japan, but in response to the external crisis, he advocated the Sonno-joi theory.

 

*3 Shozan Sakuma  was an advocate of Eastern morality and Western artistic concepts.

 

*4 Shonan Yokoi had idea of equality of all human beings. He evaluated Western democracy from the perspective of Confucian royalism.

 

*5 Shoin Yoshida  trained many people who contributed to the Meiji Restoration at Shokason School .

 

*6 Nobuhiro Sato  anticipated the Meiji state by presenting a vision of a nation based on overseas invasion, state control of industry, and strong popular control.

 

*7 Sontoku Ninomiya was an agricultural politician and leader of rural reconstruction.

 

*8 Yukichi Fukuzawa was a Western scholar and enlightener during the Meiji period. He tried to understand capitalist civilization from the spirit that created it, rather than a Japanese-style, Western-style understanding. He advocated the need for practical studies to replace Confucianism.

 

*9　Amane Nishi  was a philosopher during the Meiji Enlightenment. Introduced Western philosophy to Japan.

 

*10　Hiroyuki Kato was a scholar of national law at the end of the Edo period and in the Meiji period. Studied military tactics and Western studies under Sakuma Shozan. In the Meiji period, he advocated the theory of innate human rights, but took a stand against the rise of the Freedom and People's Rights Movement. .

 

As an example, I have considered the Edo period in terms of four periods based on the theory of social order, and although the period in which a character appears is roughly speaking, it is considered to be the year half of the character's life *1. 

 

 *1 Measured in years that are half of the person's life.

The era to which a person belongs may be related to that person's accomplishments, and may have nothing to do with age. Some people's achievements appear in the second half of their lives, while others appear in the first half of their lives. However, what would happen if we consider that there is a social background to the appearance of that person in history? Setting the principle of capturing characteristics at half the age of a historical figure is more convenient for capturing the appearance of other figures. Spengler believed that politics, economics, society, and culture, especially art and mathematics, have mental images that characterize an era. In other words, this is probably the least arbitrary and natural way to grasp the background or deep common mental images of all genres.

Civilizations and value 13 ( Second and Third period in Edo era )

In the second period, ancient studies arose as a reaction to the teaching of Neo-Confucianism. It may be said that this was the birth of humanism in Japan . Examples include Jinsai Ito *1, Ekiken Kaibara *2, and Sorai Ogyu *3, but there were also reactions from the Neo-Confucian system, such as Anzai Yamazaki *4 and Hakuseki Arai . Furthermore, the influence of humanism was not limited to Confucianism, but also led to the development of Japanese studies, such as the activities of Mabuchi Kamono *5. Furthermore, the influence of Neo-Confucianism on the masses can be seen in the emergence of Baigan Ishida *6's shingaku. As a reaction to Neo-Confucianism , there were also ideas such as Shoeki Ando 's revolutionary democracy .

 

*1　 Jinsai Ito did not serve as a government official throughout his life, but instead lived as an ordinary Confucian. They dismissed the commentaries of Zhu Zi and others as going against the ancient meaning of Confucius Meng, and directly advocated seeking the path of saints in the original s Confucius and Mencius. He is the founder of the Kogi school.

 

*2　Kaibara Ekiken  was a member of the Neo-Confucian school of thought, but his writings range from medicine to natural history. In his later years, he criticized Neo-Confucianism and developed a theory of rational monism in response to rational theory. This can be said to be a case in which the concept of knowledge in Neo-Confucianism was directed outward.

 

*3　Sorai Ogyu was the founder of the classical school of dictionary studies. He aimed to establish a new Confucian system through an accurate understanding of the Six Classics . He was the greatest thinker of the Old School, preached the separation of public and private life, and paved the way for economics.

 

*4 Anzai Yamazaki  created Suika Shinto, which was a combination of Yoshida Shinto and Neo-Confucianism.

 

*5  Hakuseki Arai was a Neo-Confucian scholar, but this is a case where the concept of knowledge in Neo-Confucianism turned to historical research. His book, Western Journal, was the beginning of the rise of Western studies.

 

*6 Mabuchi Kamono tried to revive the ancient path through research on the Manyoshu. He laid the foundation for Japanese studies.

 

*7 Baigan Ishida  adopted Shinto, Buddhism, and RoushiSoushi based on Neo-Confucianism, and advocated the establishment of commercial morality, preaching that merchants were no inferior to samurai in fulfilling their social duties.

 

*8 Shoeki Ando (physician) came from an upper-class peasant family, but he was a revolutionary thinker who completely rejected class-based society and Confucian-Buddhist ideology and advocated an ideal society in which all people worked and lived on their own.

 

　The third period saw the development of classicism, scientific thought, the separation of public and private life, and the development of economics that had occurred in the second period. However, classicism in Confucianism became less common , and Kokugaku reached its maturity under Norinaga Motoori  *1. Regarding scientific thought, Baien Miura  *2 and the appearance of many Dutch scholars are also a feature of the third period, including Genpaku Sugita  *3, Gennai Hiraga  *4, Ryotaku Maeno  *5 and Kokan Shiba *6. During this period, Dutch studies were in their infancy and began to spread as an academic discipline.*6 This period also saw the development of economics due to the influence of Sorai Ogyu 's separation of public and private life . Shundai Dazai *7, Seiryo Kaiho *8, and Toshiaki Honda *9 are some examples. Comparative cultural anthropological thinkers with a sharp critical spirit included Chuki Tominaga *10 and Banto Yamagata *11.

 

*1　Norinaga Motoori  investigated the true meaning of Japanese classics using linguistic and philological methods, harshly criticized the worldview of Confucianism and Buddhism, and affirmed humanity by emphasizing the compassion of things. Although it reflected a new civic consciousness, its idea of the divine kingdom and the idea of reverence for the king would be inherited by Restored Shintoism.

 

*2 In addition to Confucianism,Baien Miura  studied astronomy and Western studies, and advocated the study of reason as a kind of natural philosophy, and anti-viewing unity. It was a pioneering methodological awareness of empirical science.

 

*3 Genpaku Sugita was a medical scientist and Dutch scholar who translated Kaitai Shinsho and laid the foundations of Dutch studies.

 

*4 Gennai Hiraga was an inventor, naturalist, playwright, and joruri writer. Despite his versatility, he was not accepted by the world.

 

*5 Ryotaku Maeno was a medical scientist and Dutch scholar who was at the center of the KaitaiShinsho translation business.

 

*6 Kokan Shiba  was a Western-style painter and a Dutch scholar.

 

*7 Shundai Dazai  inherited the secular aspect of Sorai Ogyu .

 

*8 Seiryo Kaiho  was a  scholar on China and economic thinker. He looked at samurai's human relationships in terms of economic relationships.

 

*9 Toshiaki Honda  learned geography with Dutch books. He preached the necessity of trade and the importance of commerce.

 

*10 Chuki Nakamoto  was familiar with the scriptures of Shinto,Confucianism and Buddhism, and criticized the deterioration of religion and ethics. Known as a comparative cultural anthropological thinker.

 

*11 Banto Yamagata was successful as a merchant. He was a relentless critic of Buddhist beliefs and Shinto mythology. 

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Civilizations and value 12 ( First period of Edo era )

In Toynbee's view, a small number of creative rulers gain legitimacy , but lose it over time . The decline of civilization is portrayed as such a process , but the idea of the four periods mentioned above also suggests a way to analyze it by dividing it into smaller parts . In that case, the creative rulers are the leadership of the new social forces, and the legitimate rulers who have lost their creativity are the leadership of the old social forces. It may be possible to read it that way. In other words, it can be said that Spengler and Toynbee overlap in terms of internal value formation as well.

 

It is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that the total period of these four periods does not necessarily correspond to the period of existence of the actual social order as a social force . This is because a part of the first half of the social forces and a part of the latter half were periods in which they were not actually ruling orders or ruling forces, but could be regarded as periods in which they were potential forces .

 

 

Forces and mentality in the Edo period

 

above idea of social order or social forces as a hypothetical model, I would like to take a look at Japan's Edo period, which became a typical example of a closed model due to its national isolation policy. In terms of history, the Edo period was a social order established from the establishment of the Edo Shogunate to the restoration of imperial rule , and its period of existence was from 1603 to 1867 . However, in this hypothetical model, the first of the four periods already began before 1603 , and the fourth period ended after 1867.

 

Let me explain the major flow. The first period began before the establishment of the Edo Shogunate. This is probably because the values of the Sengoku samurai, the Ikko sect, the Nichiren sect, and Christianity had a strong influence, and the posthumous value was high . At the same time, we saw the beginning of the wide spread of Neo-Confucianism by Seika Fujiwara *1. This continued with Razan Hayashi *2 's teaching of Neo-confucianism. Examples of the products of friction between old social forces and new social forces include Touju Nakae*3, Banzan Kumazawa*4, and Soko Yamaga*5. Keichu*6 is cited as the origin of Kokugaku.

 

*1 The academic style of Seika Fujiwara  was not simply Neo-Confucianism, but rather an inclusive academic style that did not exclude Rikuo's studies, but also incorporated Laozhuang and Buddhism, and was rather said to have been on the flow of Ming xinxing. .

 

*2 Razan Hayashi  made Neo-Confucianism the official science of the shogunate, and his descendants called themselves the Hayashi family and became Confucian officials of the shogunate for generations.

 

*3 Touju Nakae is a Yomei scholar  who valued filial piety and cultivated virtue , Farmers called him the Omi Saint.

 

 * 4 Banzan Kumazawa  adopted the strengths of both Shushi and Yomei studies, and argued that politics should be viewed from a practical samurai standpoint, and that policies should be formulated according to the actual situation by understanding the three aspects of time, place, and rank.

 

*5 Soko Yamaga was one of the founders of the classical school of thought, which opposed Neo-Confucianism and Yomei school and advocated a return to the principles of Confucius, and he also influenced later generations as a systematist of Bushido.

 

*6 Keichū was a monk of the Shingon sect and laid the foundations for Japanese studies. He had many accomplishments in classical commentary and Japanese linguistics.

 

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Civilizations and value 11 ( structure about the DNA of social order )

Let's take a brief look at each period. Let's first formulate a general hypothesis about what characteristics each has.

 

 What is the first period, childhood? 

The first period, childhood, overlaps with the prime years of the preceding social forces . In contrast to the mature wisdom of the preceding social forces , this is the time when the new , albeit infantile, ideals of the newly born social forces are giving birth . Therefore, in childhood, the mature culture of the preceding social forces and the young, yet youthful culture of the next social forces coexist. The quality of social psychology , or value, is formed through this interaction .

 

What is the second period, adolescence ?

The second period, adolescence, overlaps with the old age of the preceding social forces . The youthful ideals of the new social forces grow little by little as they meet reality . In contrast , the mature wisdom of the preceding social forces becomes rigid with age, declines , and at the same time becomes religious and philosophical. The new social forces are lyrical, and since they are not actually in charge of society yet, this is a time of great energy , where they become fanciful and dream of a new era .

 

What is the third period, the prime age?

The third period, the prime of life, overlaps with the childhood of the next generation of social forces . This time, the positions have changed, and the social forces that have gained power and leadership become the ones who criticize and suppress them. The next generation of social forces will be born under this protection , and will begin to grow little by little while receiving the protection of a mature economy amidst the stability of established social forces .

 

What is the fourth period, old age?

In the fourth period, old age, people become the ones who are overcome by the social forces of the next generation in adolescence. Philosophy and religion become accepted by established social forces . This phenomenon occurs because the social forces that have been dominant up until now tend to seek spiritual elements due to material saturation, and because of friction with the next-generation social forces that occur one after another . This is probably because they are trying to assert the legitimacy of their rule . On the other hand, the next generation of social forces in adolescence have continued to grow since their birth and are in the process of coming together as a group . At the same time, this is a time when the next generation of social forces will gain the legitimacy of their rule while being trained by the ideas * that established social forces have created amidst contradictions, as well as by external forces, such as ideas from abroad. .

 

 * Thoughts created amidst contradictions

Although the idea is to innovate and reform, a situation where the outer shell of the argument has a retro-like appearance is referred to here as ``thoughts created in contradiction.'' One example of this is the reform ideology that took the form of sonno-joi at the end of the Edo period.

 

What can be considered through these four periods is that multiple social forces exist in one period, each with its own life cycle. The infancy of one social force exists in parallel with the prime of life of another social force . Also, old age exists in parallel with adolescence, childhood in middle age, and adolescence in old age . Furthermore , it is believed that the psyches of the two social forces , old and new, that are occurring at the same time , influence each other and form trends and culture . These combinations may change slightly depending on the situation and time differences . This is because the length of each of the four periods can change depending on the situation. It feels somewhat similar to the double helix structure of DNA. It is, so to speak, the DNA of social order.

 

However , first of all , ① childhood (new social forces) - middle age (old social forces), ② adolescence (new social forces) - old age (old social forces), ③ middle age (old social forces) - childhood (new social forces) , ④ Old age (old social forces) - Youth (new social forces)

　　This pattern can be considered as the basic type. Based on these hypotheses and keeping them in mind , we can use them as a starting point for looking at complex and diverse phenomena . In the sense of the error from the starting point, it would be possible to use it in a way similar to Weber's ideal type.

 

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