トランプ大統領の貿易戦争と世界の経済・政治 goo.gl/ZfUyxY
— 山下景秋 (@kageyamashita) 2018年8月26日 - 10:37
President Trump's trade war and the world economy and politics goo.gl/MYs8FL
— 山下景秋 (@kageyamashita) 2018年8月26日 - 11:49
President Trump's trade war and the world economy and politics
Professor of international departments of Wayo Women's University, Kageaki Yamashita
In the current globalization age where goods and money moves freely throughout the world, the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy independently undertaken by each country are getting smaller. The same is true for the country's unique trade policy. In addition, many of the modern social problems are issues in which politics and economy are closely related.
1. President Trump's War of Trade
In the trade war that President Trump launched, on the blog yesterday 25 I stated that it is not as effective as expected in modern times where goods and money move freely, globalization has advanced. It is important to note that when export of emerging economies becomes difficult due to trade wars by import restrictions, emerging economies will not be able to earn dollars and will not be able to repay foreign debts in line with the depreciation of the currency. Such circumstances are similar not only in Turkey but also in China.
It should be noted that if the currency depreciation goes too far and the currency collapses or the repayment of foreign debts is delayed, there is a risk of currency crisis and financial crisis. And President Trump should recognize that such economic crisis will have a serious impact on the American economy. (However, the progression of a mild currency depreciation has the positive effect that exports become advantageous and foreign tourists increase in tourism countries like Turkey)
2. North Korea issues and China
China already has the problem that domestic companies and local governments can not repay their debts. Furthermore, in such a world situation, not only is it difficult to repay debts from foreign countries but the problem of not returning the dollar China lent under the concept of The Belt and Road Initiative is starting to arise.
In addition to the situation where China's excessive hegemony is beginning to be criticized by other countries as being new colonialism, the problem that the Chinese economy is likely to worsen more and more by the trade war that Trump started was added .
Expanding principle of Xi Jinping chairman of China has aroused opposition from the United States as well as neighboring countries. It is reported that some elders in China questioned his responsibilities.
Then, Xi Jinping Hu, as a way to avoid a trade war with the United States, have showed the attitude to help North Korea. This is one reason why North Korea does not give way to the United States in terms of denuclearization.
That denuclearization is ineffective unless the United States and China cooperate in the North Korean problem is what I pointed out many times in the past Tweet. Xi Jinping president that is struggling in the trade war with the United States by showing intentionally attitude to help North Korea wants to deal with the United States.
If America wants to cooperate with China on the issue of North Korea, he will argue
that Trump should retract trade war with China.
By the end of the trade war, President Trump should bring the global economic crisis and the North Korean problem at the same time to avoid and solve it.
#Trump # Trade war # Turkey # China # North Korea
Professor of international departments of Wayo Women's University, Kageaki Yamashita
In the current globalization age where goods and money moves freely throughout the world, the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy independently undertaken by each country are getting smaller. The same is true for the country's unique trade policy. In addition, many of the modern social problems are issues in which politics and economy are closely related.
1. President Trump's War of Trade
In the trade war that President Trump launched, on the blog yesterday 25 I stated that it is not as effective as expected in modern times where goods and money move freely, globalization has advanced. It is important to note that when export of emerging economies becomes difficult due to trade wars by import restrictions, emerging economies will not be able to earn dollars and will not be able to repay foreign debts in line with the depreciation of the currency. Such circumstances are similar not only in Turkey but also in China.
It should be noted that if the currency depreciation goes too far and the currency collapses or the repayment of foreign debts is delayed, there is a risk of currency crisis and financial crisis. And President Trump should recognize that such economic crisis will have a serious impact on the American economy. (However, the progression of a mild currency depreciation has the positive effect that exports become advantageous and foreign tourists increase in tourism countries like Turkey)
2. North Korea issues and China
China already has the problem that domestic companies and local governments can not repay their debts. Furthermore, in such a world situation, not only is it difficult to repay debts from foreign countries but the problem of not returning the dollar China lent under the concept of The Belt and Road Initiative is starting to arise.
In addition to the situation where China's excessive hegemony is beginning to be criticized by other countries as being new colonialism, the problem that the Chinese economy is likely to worsen more and more by the trade war that Trump started was added .
Expanding principle of Xi Jinping chairman of China has aroused opposition from the United States as well as neighboring countries. It is reported that some elders in China questioned his responsibilities.
Then, Xi Jinping Hu, as a way to avoid a trade war with the United States, have showed the attitude to help North Korea. This is one reason why North Korea does not give way to the United States in terms of denuclearization.
That denuclearization is ineffective unless the United States and China cooperate in the North Korean problem is what I pointed out many times in the past Tweet. Xi Jinping president that is struggling in the trade war with the United States by showing intentionally attitude to help North Korea wants to deal with the United States.
If America wants to cooperate with China on the issue of North Korea, he will argue
that Trump should retract trade war with China.
By the end of the trade war, President Trump should bring the global economic crisis and the North Korean problem at the same time to avoid and solve it.
#Trump # Trade war # Turkey # China # North Korea
トランプ大統領の貿易戦争と世界の経済・政治
和洋女子大学国際学科教授、山下景秋
世界全体をモノやカネが自由に移動するグローバル化が進んだ現代においては、各国が独自に行う財政政策や金融政策の効果は小さくなっている。一国独自の貿易政策も同様である。また、現代の社会問題の多くは、政治と経済が密接に関係しあっている問題である。
1．トランプ大統領の貿易戦争
トランプ大統領が仕掛けた貿易戦争は、モノやカネが自由に移動する、グローバル化が進んだ現代においては、思ったほどの効果がないと昨日25日のブログで述べた。注意しなくてはならないのは、輸入制限による貿易戦争により新興国の輸出が困難になると、新興国はドルを稼げなくなり、通貨安の進行と合わせて外国からの借金の返済ができなくなるということだ。このような事情は、トルコだけでなく中国も同様である。
通貨安の進行が行き過ぎて通貨が暴落したり、外国からの借金の返済が滞ると、通貨危機や金融危機を引き起こす危険性があることに注意しなくてはならない。そして、そのような経済危機はアメリカ経済にも深刻な影響を及ぼすことをトランプ大統領は認識すべきだ。(ただし、軽度の通貨安の進行は、輸出が有利になり、トルコのような観光国では外国人観光客が増えるというプラスの効果もある)
2．北朝鮮問題と中国
中国は、すでに国内の企業や地方政府が借金を返せないという問題を抱えている。さらに、このような世界情勢のなかで外国からの借金の返済が難しくなるだけでなく、一帯一路構想の下で貸したドルを返してくれないという問題も生じ始めている。
中国の行き過ぎた覇権が新植民地主義であると他国から批判され始めている状況に加えて、トランプ大統領が仕掛けた貿易戦争によりますます中国経済が悪化する可能性もあるという問題が付け加わった。
中国の習近平主席の拡大主義が、周辺諸国だけでなくアメリカの反発を呼び起こした。中国の長老のなかにはその責任を問う者もいると伝えられている。
そこで、習近平主席は、アメリカとの貿易戦争を回避する方法として、北朝鮮を支援する姿勢をちらつかせている。これが、非核化の点で北朝鮮がアメリカに譲歩しない1つの理由になっている。
北朝鮮問題でアメリカと中国が協力しないと効果がないということは、私が以前にツイートで何度も指摘したことだ。アメリカとの貿易戦争で苦慮している習近平主席は、意図的に北朝鮮を支援する姿勢を見せることにより、アメリカと取引したいはずだ。
アメリカが北朝鮮問題で中国に協力してほしいなら、中国との貿易戦争をひっこめたらどうかというはずだ。
トランプ大統領は、貿易戦争を終息させることにより、世界の経済危機と北朝鮮問題を同時に回避・解決する方向にもっていくべきだ。
＃トランプ ＃貿易戦争 ＃トルコ ＃中国 ＃北朝鮮
和洋女子大学国際学科教授、山下景秋
世界全体をモノやカネが自由に移動するグローバル化が進んだ現代においては、各国が独自に行う財政政策や金融政策の効果は小さくなっている。一国独自の貿易政策も同様である。また、現代の社会問題の多くは、政治と経済が密接に関係しあっている問題である。
1．トランプ大統領の貿易戦争
トランプ大統領が仕掛けた貿易戦争は、モノやカネが自由に移動する、グローバル化が進んだ現代においては、思ったほどの効果がないと昨日25日のブログで述べた。注意しなくてはならないのは、輸入制限による貿易戦争により新興国の輸出が困難になると、新興国はドルを稼げなくなり、通貨安の進行と合わせて外国からの借金の返済ができなくなるということだ。このような事情は、トルコだけでなく中国も同様である。
通貨安の進行が行き過ぎて通貨が暴落したり、外国からの借金の返済が滞ると、通貨危機や金融危機を引き起こす危険性があることに注意しなくてはならない。そして、そのような経済危機はアメリカ経済にも深刻な影響を及ぼすことをトランプ大統領は認識すべきだ。(ただし、軽度の通貨安の進行は、輸出が有利になり、トルコのような観光国では外国人観光客が増えるというプラスの効果もある)
2．北朝鮮問題と中国
中国は、すでに国内の企業や地方政府が借金を返せないという問題を抱えている。さらに、このような世界情勢のなかで外国からの借金の返済が難しくなるだけでなく、一帯一路構想の下で貸したドルを返してくれないという問題も生じ始めている。
中国の行き過ぎた覇権が新植民地主義であると他国から批判され始めている状況に加えて、トランプ大統領が仕掛けた貿易戦争によりますます中国経済が悪化する可能性もあるという問題が付け加わった。
中国の習近平主席の拡大主義が、周辺諸国だけでなくアメリカの反発を呼び起こした。中国の長老のなかにはその責任を問う者もいると伝えられている。
そこで、習近平主席は、アメリカとの貿易戦争を回避する方法として、北朝鮮を支援する姿勢をちらつかせている。これが、非核化の点で北朝鮮がアメリカに譲歩しない1つの理由になっている。
北朝鮮問題でアメリカと中国が協力しないと効果がないということは、私が以前にツイートで何度も指摘したことだ。アメリカとの貿易戦争で苦慮している習近平主席は、意図的に北朝鮮を支援する姿勢を見せることにより、アメリカと取引したいはずだ。
アメリカが北朝鮮問題で中国に協力してほしいなら、中国との貿易戦争をひっこめたらどうかというはずだ。
トランプ大統領は、貿易戦争を終息させることにより、世界の経済危機と北朝鮮問題を同時に回避・解決する方向にもっていくべきだ。
＃トランプ ＃貿易戦争 ＃トルコ ＃中国 ＃北朝鮮
現在の世界経済 goo.gl/bv2Wkm
— 山下景秋 (@kageyamashita) 2018年8月25日 - 07:05
トランプ大統領の貿易政策と世界経済 goo.gl/W9rpZh
— 山下景秋 (@kageyamashita) 2018年8月25日 - 09:57
President Trump 's trade policy and the world economy goo.gl/TmSHCy
— 山下景秋 (@kageyamashita) 2018年8月25日 - 15:52
The current world and Japan's economy goo.gl/pzx98R
— 山下景秋 (@kageyamashita) 2018年8月25日 - 22:10
"The current world and Japan's economy"
(RESUME)
(Professor of international departments of Wayo Women's University,
Kageaki Yamashita）
1. The impact of high interest rates in the US on countries other than the United States
funds flow out to the United States → currency value↓ → price↑(Southeast Asia etc.) → monetary tightening→ economy of countries other than the United States↓
currency value↓ → repayment burden of borrowing by dollar, euro or yen↑
→ bad debts of banks of developed countries↑ → credit crunch → developed country economy↓
(1) Turkey
Turkey has a low savings rate → Turkish banks and corporations depend on borrowing foreign currency loans from overseas banks.
→ interest rate in the United States↑(2015 December ～), President of Turkey hates monetary tightening → pressure to central bank → outflow of funds↑ → lira↓
● Turkey is a current account deficit country (→ foreign currency reserves are small), the US raises tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey (→ current account deficit↑)→ foreign exchange intervention is difficult →Lira depreciation
foreign exchange reserves (which can be repayment resources) <foreign debt (four times as much as foreign reserves) → debt repayment is not easy.
● Foreign currency reserve =" "assets" denominated in foreign currencies that central banks and governments have stored in preparation for settlement of import charges and payment of foreign debt. It is also a source of funds for implementing domestic currency buying intervention in the foreign exchange market. held in bonds, deposits, gold.
①Impact on domestic economy
(→ import price↑ →) inflation (→ consumption↓), repayment burden of foreign currency denominated debt↑ (→ corporate bankruptcy↑), overseas funds outflow (→ investment to Turkey decreases), citizen purchase foreign currency (→ If they use foreign currency as a means of settlement, monetary policy will be ineffective)
②Impact on European economy
repayment burden of foreign currency denominated debt↑ →bad debts of European bank↑ → loss of European bank with a large number of credit to Turkey (maximum is Spain)↑ → European banks' credit crunch → European economy↓
→ Euro selling → Euro ↓
③Impact on Japanese economy
lira depreciation, euro depreciation → yen appreciation → Japan's exports↓
and Turkish shock → world economy↓→ stock price↓ → consumption↓ → Japanese economy↓ (← scope of monetary easing and fiscal expenditure in Japan is limited)
(<strong>Argentina
inflation pressure and anxiety about repayment ability→ Argentine peso depreciation → driven to urgent rate hike → economy↓ → repayment of debt becomes difficult.
foreign debt of Turkey and Argentina = 40 to 50% of GDP)
(2)China
①Impact of trade war and US interest rate hike
US - China trade war (full - fledged from July) → production↓, anxiety about trade war → RMB(Chinese currency)↓, stock price↓
RMB ↓ → possibility of capital outflow↑
②US rate hike → RMB depreciation
economic slowdown, (US interest rate↑→) US-China interest rate difference↓ → RMB↓ → export↑, but the possibility of capital outflow↑ → further RMB↓
(It is possible to take measures of speculation suppression and capital regulation against excessive RMB depreciation)
③Problem of excessive debt
for domestic and foreign countries excessive loans → difficult to repay
④Reduction of excess debt
Government alerts the bubble → reduce excessive debt (of local governments and state-owned enterprises) (guidance to scrutinize banks' loan destination) → (bankruptcy of net finance → loss of individual investors →) consumption↓, (low profitable infrastructure financing↓ →) investment slump
tighten the shadow bank. small and medium-sized companies and part of local government-affiliated companies suffer from financing.
⑤The Belt and Road Initiative
Many countries borrow from China due to The Belt and Road Initiative vision of China.
Central Asia etc. depend on borrowing from China to fund resource development and infrastructure construction
→ however, they can not return their debts →They will transfer the right to operate infrastructure and resources development rights to China.
2. Economic crisis
● The economic crisis occurs with debt↑. The currency crisis is caused by borrowing foreign currency from foreign countries.
● Economic downturn → low interest → debt ↑ → bubble → but not repayable
→ bubble collapse → Economy ↓
● Emerging countries borrow funds from overseas with dollars or euros → in case of trade deficit currency value↓
→ payment burden ↑
● globalization, conversion of industrial structure → (gap between rich and poor) → (US) rate hike and import restrictions
import restrictions → exports of emerging countries to the US↓ (→ trade deficit ↑) → currency value of emerging countries↓
● prior to the war protection trade began after the Great Depression.
Currently, there is a possibility that the economic crisis will come after protection trade begins.
＃economy #world economy #Turkey #china
(RESUME)
(Professor of international departments of Wayo Women's University,
Kageaki Yamashita）
1. The impact of high interest rates in the US on countries other than the United States
funds flow out to the United States → currency value↓ → price↑(Southeast Asia etc.) → monetary tightening→ economy of countries other than the United States↓
currency value↓ → repayment burden of borrowing by dollar, euro or yen↑
→ bad debts of banks of developed countries↑ → credit crunch → developed country economy↓
(1) Turkey
Turkey has a low savings rate → Turkish banks and corporations depend on borrowing foreign currency loans from overseas banks.
→ interest rate in the United States↑(2015 December ～), President of Turkey hates monetary tightening → pressure to central bank → outflow of funds↑ → lira↓
● Turkey is a current account deficit country (→ foreign currency reserves are small), the US raises tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey (→ current account deficit↑)→ foreign exchange intervention is difficult →Lira depreciation
foreign exchange reserves (which can be repayment resources) <foreign debt (four times as much as foreign reserves) → debt repayment is not easy.
● Foreign currency reserve =" "assets" denominated in foreign currencies that central banks and governments have stored in preparation for settlement of import charges and payment of foreign debt. It is also a source of funds for implementing domestic currency buying intervention in the foreign exchange market. held in bonds, deposits, gold.
①Impact on domestic economy
(→ import price↑ →) inflation (→ consumption↓), repayment burden of foreign currency denominated debt↑ (→ corporate bankruptcy↑), overseas funds outflow (→ investment to Turkey decreases), citizen purchase foreign currency (→ If they use foreign currency as a means of settlement, monetary policy will be ineffective)
②Impact on European economy
repayment burden of foreign currency denominated debt↑ →bad debts of European bank↑ → loss of European bank with a large number of credit to Turkey (maximum is Spain)↑ → European banks' credit crunch → European economy↓
→ Euro selling → Euro ↓
③Impact on Japanese economy
lira depreciation, euro depreciation → yen appreciation → Japan's exports↓
and Turkish shock → world economy↓→ stock price↓ → consumption↓ → Japanese economy↓ (← scope of monetary easing and fiscal expenditure in Japan is limited)
(<strong>Argentina
inflation pressure and anxiety about repayment ability→ Argentine peso depreciation → driven to urgent rate hike → economy↓ → repayment of debt becomes difficult.
foreign debt of Turkey and Argentina = 40 to 50% of GDP)
(2)China
①Impact of trade war and US interest rate hike
US - China trade war (full - fledged from July) → production↓, anxiety about trade war → RMB(Chinese currency)↓, stock price↓
RMB ↓ → possibility of capital outflow↑
②US rate hike → RMB depreciation
economic slowdown, (US interest rate↑→) US-China interest rate difference↓ → RMB↓ → export↑, but the possibility of capital outflow↑ → further RMB↓
(It is possible to take measures of speculation suppression and capital regulation against excessive RMB depreciation)
③Problem of excessive debt
for domestic and foreign countries excessive loans → difficult to repay
④Reduction of excess debt
Government alerts the bubble → reduce excessive debt (of local governments and state-owned enterprises) (guidance to scrutinize banks' loan destination) → (bankruptcy of net finance → loss of individual investors →) consumption↓, (low profitable infrastructure financing↓ →) investment slump
tighten the shadow bank. small and medium-sized companies and part of local government-affiliated companies suffer from financing.
⑤The Belt and Road Initiative
Many countries borrow from China due to The Belt and Road Initiative vision of China.
Central Asia etc. depend on borrowing from China to fund resource development and infrastructure construction
→ however, they can not return their debts →They will transfer the right to operate infrastructure and resources development rights to China.
2. Economic crisis
● The economic crisis occurs with debt↑. The currency crisis is caused by borrowing foreign currency from foreign countries.
● Economic downturn → low interest → debt ↑ → bubble → but not repayable
→ bubble collapse → Economy ↓
● Emerging countries borrow funds from overseas with dollars or euros → in case of trade deficit currency value↓
→ payment burden ↑
● globalization, conversion of industrial structure → (gap between rich and poor) → (US) rate hike and import restrictions
import restrictions → exports of emerging countries to the US↓ (→ trade deficit ↑) → currency value of emerging countries↓
● prior to the war protection trade began after the Great Depression.
Currently, there is a possibility that the economic crisis will come after protection trade begins.
＃economy #world economy #Turkey #china