ドイツ発（datelined Germany）： spreading since August

２０２０年６月１０日（Wed.）　報道（日本国内）によると、“本日、東海地方は梅雨入りしたと見られる“と伝えられています。

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さて、こちらの話題は昨日来、各国が速報で流しているのですが、これまでのところ、日本国内報道では見聞きしていません。（ニュースソース：　DWーDE ６月９日発　）

＜原文の一部＞

Novel coronavirus may have been spreading since August — study

A study by Harvard Medical School has shown that SARS-CoV-2 may have been spreading in China in August 2019. That would be months earlier than when the outbreak is thought to have started in the central city of Wuhan.

（抜粋）研究によると、COVID19は８月（注：　2019年）から拡がっていたとしています。これはハーバード医科大学院の発表によるもので、これまでの武漢で始まったとされる時期よりも数ヶ月早いことになります。

Harvard Medical School research published Tuesday showed an increased number of hospital visits in Wuhan, the city in central China where SARS-CoV-2 originated, strongly coincided with an increase in internet search terms related to COVID-19 symptoms starting in August 2019. 

"Increased hospital traffic and symptom search data in Wuhan preceded the documented start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in December 2019," according to the research.

Researchers analyzed 111 satellite images of parking lots at 6 hospitals in Wuhan between January 2018 and April 2020, and obtained queries from the Chinese search engine Baidu for terms related to COVID-19, like "cough" or "diarrhea" within the same time frame. 

The analysis showed a steep increase in hospital parking lot occupancy in August 2019, which continued throughout the fall. Between September and October 2019, five of the six hospitals showed the " highest relative daily volume of the analyzed series, coinciding with elevated levels of Baidu search queries."

（超抜粋）2019年12月が武漢での感染拡大開始と考えられていますが、ハーバード医科大学院の衛星画像分析（6ヶ所の病院駐車場混雑状況）、及び、中国国内SNS（百度）の検索キーワードの解析によるものです。それによると2019年8月から急激に、ある傾向が増加していると言うことです。

A gut feeling 

The report also points out that gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms have been recently recognized as a unique feature of COVID-19, which could be connected to the spike in online searches for "diarrhea" on China's Baidu in August 2019.

"In August, we identify a unique increase in searches for diarrhea which was neither seen in previous flu seasons," according to the report. 

The researchers said that the increase in GI symptoms could be a sign of missed early signals of COVID-19 infection in current surveillance systems for respiratory illness. 

"This finding also hints at the need to broaden surveillance efforts to consider novel pathogens that might display a range of unexpected symptoms," the report said.

（超抜粋）また、胃腸の症状（下痢）に関するSNSでの検索が、この時期急増しているのです。これらが特徴的であって、COVID19の感染はこの時点で既に始まっていたと考えられるとしています。 

When did COVID-19 begin?

The Harvard report builds on a growing body of research exploring whether SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in China before the Wuhan outbreak was identified. 

"While we cannot confirm if the increased volume was directly related to the new virus, our evidence supports other recent work showing that emergence happened before identification at the Huanan Seafood market."

Scientific consensus on the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is that the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen was able to make the jump from animals to humans at the seafood market in Wuhan. It quickly spread through the city's population and into the surrounding Hubei province before Chinese authorities enforced a near total lockdown of movement and public lifeon January 23.

However, the Harvard researchers point out that initial epidemiological studies, which identified the Huanan market as the source of the outbreak, included several COVID-19 patients with no connection to the market, "leaving open the possibility of alternate points of origin and infection." 

The authors of the study said that their findings at least "corroborate the hypothesis that the virus emerged naturally in southern China and was potentially already circulating at the time of the Wuhan cluster."

（注：　以下、原文を流し読みして下さい。）

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思えば、フランス（パリ）では12月以前にCOVID19が発症していた証拠も出されていますし、12月が感染開始だったのではなく、8月頃には始まっていたと解するのが妥当に思えます。

そう考えると、2019年の8月9月は、当然のように中国・日本間を往来する観光客やビジネスマン等は多い筈で、武漢との間も同様だったのでしょう。さすれば、日本の各地でも、類似症状や無症状での感染者は出始めていたと考えるのが自然かと思います。

尚、各国がこのニュースを速報で流していますが、中には、中国当局はこれを否定していると伝えているサイトもあります。

＊＊＊　下の写真は、記事内容とは関係ありません。

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