Hurricane SANDY

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Hurricane SANDY
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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm CenterClick image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – InteractiveNew!
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH


NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

　10月25日（ブルームバーグ）：ハリケーン「サンディ」は「フランケンストーム（破壊的な勢力のハリケーン）」に発達し、米北東部に到達するハリケーンとしてはこの約100年で最大の勢力となる可能性が高いと、現時点で予想されている。

米気象庁（ＮＷＳ）の気象予報士、ポール・コシン氏によると、サンディは中西部から移動している暴風雨と合体し、1938年に発生した「ニューイングランド・ハリケーン」に匹敵する勢力に発達する恐れがある。

コシン氏は電話インタビューで「気象モデルの一部で見られるハリケーンの勢力は、米国のこの地域では過去100年間、例がない」と指摘。「誇張ではなく、気象モデルの一部でこのような状況が見られる。近づくにつれ勢力が弱まる可能性もある」と述べた。

合体したハリケーンはデラウェア、メリーランド、バージニア州にまたがる半島からニューイングランド地方南部までのいずれかの地域に到達するとみられている。米ハリケーンセンターの追跡データに基づく現時点の予報では、30日にニュージャージー州沿岸に移動する見込み。ただ、上陸地点の予想は沿岸部に近づくと変更される場合が多い。

原題：Worst Storm in 100 Years Seen for Northeast U.S. as SandyGrows（抜粋）

記事に関する記者への問い合わせ先：ボストン Brian K. Sullivan bsullivan10@bloomberg.net




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