本篇paper代写- The prospect theory of behavioral economics讨论了行为经济学的前景理论。前景理论是由卡曼尼和沃特斯基提出的经济理论，是心理学及行为科学方面的研究成果。它是一个描述性范式的决策模型，其假设风险的决策过程可以分为编辑和评价两个阶段。我们可以理解为人们在面临获得时往往是小心翼翼，谨慎并不愿冒风险的；而在面对失去时会变得很不甘心，往往这时候会容易冒险。同时，人们对失去和获得的敏感程度是不同的，失去时的往往痛苦感大大超过获得时的快乐感。本篇paper代写由51due代写平台整理，供大家参考阅读。
Prospect theory is another economic theory proposed by kameni and watsky. It is a research result in psychology and behavioral science. It is a descriptive model of decision-making, and its decision-making process of assuming risk can be divided into two stages of editing and evaluation. It has three characteristics. First, most people are risk averse when they are faced with acquisition. The second is that most people prefer risk to loss. Third, people are more sensitive to loss than to gain. Therefore, we can understand that people tend to be cautious when faced with the acquisition, and do not want to take risks; In the face of loss will become very reluctant, often this time will be easy to take risks. At the same time, people have different levels of sensitivity to loss and gain, and the pain of loss is often much greater than the pleasure of gain. However, human rationality is limited. Therefore, when people make a decision about an event or a decision, they do not really think from the perspective of the real value of the object, but judge and make a decision by some relatively easy clues.
Prospect theory has three features. First, most people are risk averse when they are faced with acquisition. The second is that most people prefer risk to loss. Third, people are more sensitive to loss than to gain. These three characteristics correspond to deterministic effect, reflection effect and loss avoidance respectively.
Deterministic effect refers to the decision maker's choice to be considered as deterministic result, that is, when compared with only probable result, the decision maker will choose the most deterministic result, and the probability result will be given a lower weight. As a result of this deterministic effect, policy makers tend to show a risk aversion towards certain potentially positive rewards. That's what we call "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". In our lives, we often hear the words "what falls in our hands is our own" and "what falls in our hands is our security". That's why most of us choose the certain benefits between the certain benefits and the "gamble". Above, we call it "deterministic effect".
The reflection effect refers to the asymmetric preference of people for gain and loss. Faced with possible loss, people tend to pursue risk. People tend to be risk-averse when it comes to winning or making a profit. That is, when a person is faced with two choices are losses, will often stir up his adventurous spirit, choose "gamble". This effect is called the "reflex effect", which can be summarized in a common sentence in our daily life: "the lesser of two evils". But this "reflexive effect" is irrational, as in the stock market, where investors like to keep losing stocks. They think the falling stock will rise one day and they can turn a loss into a profit. But the statistics confirm that investors have been holding negative stocks for far longer than profitable ones. That's because most of the stocks long held by investors aren't willing to cut their losses.
Loss aversion means that people's risk preferences are not consistent. When it comes to benefits, people usually behave as risk aversion. When it comes to losses, people act as risk seekers. In real life, people are habitually strongly inclined to avoid loss. According to scientists' experiments, the psychological pain caused by a certain amount of loss is about twice as strong as the feeling of benefit. This is the happiness brought by the 100 yuan we often feel, which cannot offset the pain caused by the loss of 100 yuan. Therefore, we would rather not lose 100 yuan than 100 yuan. This kind of people's sensitivity to loss and gain is asymmetrical, and the sense of pain in the face of loss greatly exceeds the psychology of pleasure in the face of gain, which we call loss aversion. And because people are far more sensitive to losses than to the same amount of gains, in the stock market, even if stock investors' accounts are up and down, they are more often distressed by daily losses and end up dumping stocks and giving up investments that would otherwise be profitable.
In this experiment, we adopted the questionnaire survey method, and the respondents were students, office workers, unemployed persons and other groups. There were six questions in the questionnaire, and each effect corresponded to two choice questions and the questionnaire was recovered for analysis.
In the questionnaire survey we did, question 1: if you cooperate with others on A project A: you will make 30,000 yuan; B you have an 80% chance of making $50,000, and a 20% chance of getting nothing. Which one do you choose? The results showed that 70.59% of the participants chose option A, while only 29.41% chose option B. Question2: there are two kinds of stocks. Stock A has A small dividend but will definitely make A profit; stock B has A big dividend but is also risky. Which one would you choose? In this question, 69.61% of respondents chose stock A and 30.39% chose stock B.
The two findings are a testament to the "certainty effect" : most people are cautious, risk-averse, risk-averse, risk-averse, risk-averse, risk-averse, and afraid of losing their profits. I would rather choose 30,000 yuan with a small amount of income, rather than 50,000 yuan with an 80% probability. Choose must be able to make money but small dividends, is not willing to choose large but uncertain income dividends, which means the degree of certainty ends like more than to the extent of the possible endings like, also reflects the attitude to risk decision element is ending and uncertainty people deal with uncertainty in different ways.
In the questionnaire survey, question 3: if you have a project, you may face two situations. B you have an 80% chance of losing $50,000, and a 20% chance of not losing money. What do you choose? The results showed that 86.27% of the respondents chose option B. And 13.73% of respondents chose option A. Problem 4: suppose there are two bets, C and D, C: there is an 80% chance of losing 5000 yuan. D: there is a 100% chance of losing 3,000 yuan. Which one do you choose? The results showed that 84.31% of respondents chose the C bet and 15.69% chose the D bet.
Both of these results demonstrate the "reflex effect" : people, faced with losses, show a preference for risk, as opposed to gains, and prefer to take a "gamble" in the event of benefits. But the truth is, most people in the state of loss, the heart will be extremely unwilling, would rather take a greater risk to gamble. That is to say, when people are in loss expectation, most people become willing to take risks and pursue greater risks.
In the questionnaire, question 5: suppose there is a gambling game, throw a fair coin, heads for win, tails for lose. If you win, you can get 6,000 yuan. If you lose, you can lose 6,000 yuan. The results showed that 76.47% of the respondents chose not to, while 23.53% chose to. Question 6: today you won the lottery again. You must choose one of the following two options: a. determine the loss of RMB 5,000; You will lose nothing if you flip the coin once. If you flip the coin face up, you will lose 10,000 yuan if you flip the coin face up. However, in this experiment, 86.27% of respondents chose option B, and only 13.73% chose option A.
Question 5 further demonstrates that the pain of loss to the investor is far greater than the comfort of the same amount of return to the investment, which is equal to 6,000 yuan, and the probability of losing or winning is equal to one half. In the consciousness of decision makers, "loss" is more sensitive than "gain". When he sees this bet, he first thinks that he will lose 6,000 yuan, which is much more uncomfortable than the pleasure of winning 6,000 yuan. Question 6 shows that when the decision makers are dealing with loss, they are seeking for risk and also losing. People are more inclined to lose nothing by 50%, but forget that there is also a 50% chance of losing 10,000 yuan. They always pursue the uncertain risk with the attitude of trying.
Foreground theory may seem hard to understand, but it can be seen everywhere in our real life. It is closely related to our real life behavior. In fact, it is the economic behavior concluded by psychologists based on our daily behaviors, which is a common behavior. And so far, prospect theory has been widely applied, in addition to the psychology at the very beginning, in the economy, stocks, marketing, etc.
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