news20090808bil

[Biography of the Day] from [Britannica]
August 8
Emiliano Zapata
Born this day in 1879, Emiliano Zapata was a Mexican revolutionary and champion of land reform who fought in guerrilla actions during the Mexican Revolution (1910–20) and was killed while occupying Mexico City.

[On This Day] from [Britannica]
August 8
1974: Resignation of U.S. President Nixon
Faced with the near-certain prospect of impeachment for his role in the Watergate Scandal, U.S. President Richard M. Nixon announced his resignation on this day in 1974 and was succeeded by Gerald Ford the following day.

1963: Armed robbers stole £2.6 million from the Glasgow-London Royal Mail Train near Bridego Bridge, north of London, in the Great Train Robbery.

1945: The United States, the Soviet Union, Great Britain, and France signed the London Agreement, which authorized the Nürnberg trials.

1907: Jazz musician Benny Carter was born in New York City.

1901: American physicist Ernest Orlando Lawrence—winner of the 1939 Nobel Prize for Physics for his invention of the cyclotron, the first particle accelerator to achieve high energies—was born in Canton, South Dakota.

1846: The Wilmot Proviso, an attempt to prohibit the extension of slavery to new territories in the United States, was proposed, and, in the debate that followed, the Republican Party was born.

1588: The English fleet won a decisive battle over the Spanish Armada off the coast of Gravelines in northern France.


[Today's Word] from [Dr. Kazuo Iwata]
August 8
When a dog bites a man that is not news, but when a man bites a dog that is news.
    Charles A. Dana (born this day in 1819)

犬が人間を噛んだってニュースにはならないが、人間が犬を噛んだらニュースになる。
Inu-ga ningen-wo kandatte nyusu-niwa naranai-ga, ningen-ga inu-wo kandara nyusu-ni naru.


[日英混文稿]

news20090808jt1

[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Clinton's success highlights Japan's abductee failures
By JUN HONGO
Staff writer

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton's dramatic trip to North Korea this week to win the release of two American journalists stands in sharp contrast to Japan's lack of an effective strategy to resolve the fate of its own citizens abducted by Pyongyang.

Clinton's trip, on the other hand, conjures up the two historic Pyongyang visits in 2002 by then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi that resulted in the repatriation of five abductees, the only ones out of a list of 17 to have come home.

On Thursday, a senior U.S. official contacted Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura to provide details of Clinton's Pyongyang trip, saying the ex-president called on Kim Jong Il to open an investigation into the yet-to-be-repatriated Japanese abducted by North Korean agents.

Although Kim did not respond to Clinton's request, Kawamura thanked the U.S. official for Washington's support, the Foreign Ministry said.

But Kawamura's appreciation is "merely diplomatic protocol," political analyst Hideaki Kase said, adding that many people are pessimistic about the prospects for resolving the abduction issue.

Since Pyongyang released the five Japanese, and later let their families reunite with them in Japan, the North has maintained that the rest of the abducted Japanese are dead and has refused to investigate their fates further. Regarding others on Tokyo's list of 17 believed abducted in the 1970s and 1980s, the North maintains that they never entered the country.

"It's clear Japan can't solve this stalemate by itself. But it's not like Japan can depend on the U.S.," Kase said.

A Foreign Ministry official has tried to hold critics at bay, stressing that Clinton's 20-hour humanitarian mission shouldn't be seen in the same light as the abduction issue, since North Korea has not even acknowledged the existence of some of the Japanese abductees on Tokyo's list, including repatriated abductee Hitomi Soga's mother, who was spirited away with her.

"This is not about Japan not being able to show leadership," the official said when asked about the lack of progress.

But following Clinton's successful trip, relatives of those still missing have urged the government to negotiate harder to get their loved ones home.

Key to past success in negotiations with the North has been in the "top-down" approach, which bore fruit when Koizumi met Kim in 2002.

Direct talks between Kim Jong Il and other heads of state are seen as the best way to negotiate because lower-level envoys do not have the authority to cut a deal with the North Korean leader.

But would a quick visit to Pyongyang by Prime Minister Taro Aso break the logjam on the abduction issue?

Analyst Kase said that is unlikely because North Korea didn't receive what it wanted from Tokyo when it let the five Japanese go, ostensibly for only a brief Japan visit, in 2002.

Pyongyang believes Japan betrayed it after Koizumi's visit because the promised normalization of bilateral relations never took place, he said.

And with the Democratic Party of Japan expected to win the Aug. 30 general election, a new prime minister could be handling the abduction issue in a matter of weeks.

But a change in administration is not expected to shift Japan's position regarding North Korea. The policies of the DPJ and Aso's Liberal Democratic Party are the same.

Both pledge to give priority to bringing back the abductees and both condemn Pyongyang's nuclear threat, but neither has come up with specific steps to resolve the abduction impasse.

Clinton's trip also leaves unanswered questions regarding the North's nuclear quest.

Washington says the visit was limited to discussing the release of the two journalists, but many believe Clinton, at least privately, called on North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

Foreign Ministry officials dread the thought that talks between the U.S. and North Korea could move forward without Japan and other states involved, which would make the chances of resolving the abduction issue even more remote.

But while acknowledging the U.S. is the main focus of North Korea's nuclear diplomacy, a senior Foreign Ministry official expressed confidence that Washington will not make decisions without consulting Japan and its other allies first.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Radioactive rays photographed from Nagasaki nuclear 'death ash'

NAGASAKI (Kyodo) A team of researchers has succeeded in photographing radioactive rays coming from the cells of people who died in the 1945 atomic bombing of Nagasaki.

The pictures are evidence that the nuclear "death ash" continues to emit radiation from a corpse even after 60-plus years, according to Kazuko Shichijo, an assistant professor at Nagasaki University, a member of the team.

Little progress has been made in the study on the effects of internal exposure to radiation. The team's success is the first of its kind in proving that atomic bomb victims were exposed to radiation from the inside as well as from outside.

"We have succeeded, from pathological perspectives, in proving that people were exposed to radiation internally," Shichijo said.

"It may help pave the way for unraveling its effect on health," she said.

The team studied anatomical samples of seven people in their 20s to 70s who had died by the end of 1945 from acute conditions after being exposed to the bomb between 0.5 km and 1 km from the hypocenter.

The team succeeded in photographing alpha particles, emitted when radioactive material decays, appearing in the picture as dark lines radiating from near the nuclei of the cells in bones, kidneys and lungs of the victims.

The team concluded the alpha particles were almost identical in length to those emitted from the plutonium used in the bomb dropped on Nagasaki.

"Plutonium passes through the human body when people are exposed to it from the outside," said Nanao Kamada, professor emeritus of radiation biology at Hiroshima University. "But the study shows that it enters cells and emits radiation from inside the human body.

"The effects of internal exposure to radiation have not been taken seriously in Hiroshima and Nagasaki," he said. "The study is important as it visibly captured the effects."

Mount Fuji protest
ATOP MOUNT FUJI (Kyodo) Danish Ambassador to Japan Franz-Michael Skjold Mellbin called for nuclear nonproliferation Thursday as he staged a protest march to the top of Mount Fuji over an ever-present nuclear proliferation threat on the 64th anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima.

Brandishing a banner that ironically said, "Have a nice doomsday," Mellbin and 25 other climbers who advocate nonproliferation offered a one-minute silent prayer from 8:15 a.m., the time of the atomic-bomb attack on Hiroshima, and then shouted the slogan.

Although this slogan does not have any religious connotation, it is meant to ask people in the world whether they have made any effort to stop nuclear proliferation, he said.

Following a demonstration near the crater of Japan's highest mountain, the Danish ambassador said, "The world is one and we are one with the world. It's true for the environment but it's also true for peace.

"This march was just a perfect opportunity to show the strength of cooperating and doing something together actively," he said. The protesters called for nonproliferation after an overnight climb to the top of the 3,776-meter mountain, which is considered the symbol of Japan.

The ambassador told reporters at the summit that time is crucial now because danger comes from the governments of such countries as North Korea and Iran that try to "stay in power by acquiring nuclear weapons."


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Visit to A-bombed cities unlikely

(Kyodo News) U.S. President Barack Obama is unlikely to visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki during his possible trip to Japan in November because he will not be here long enough to do so, a senior Foreign Ministry official indicated Friday.

Expectations have been growing that Obama, who has called for a nuclear-free world, may visit the two atomic bombed cities, as the ministry is making arrangements for Obama's Japan visit, which would be his first as president.

Obama is scheduled to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in Singapore in November, and it is possible he may visit Japan around that time.

"He is expected to visit other countries as well. His stay may not be long enough to go to Hiroshima and Nagasaki," the official said on condition of anonymity.

But he added that nothing has yet been decided and, ultimately, it is up to Obama whether he visits the two cities.

news20090808jt2

[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[BUSINESS NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
DPJ hints at fiscal plan by yearend

(Kyodo News) The Democratic Party of Japan envisions formulating around the end of this year a basic policy on how to restore the nation's fiscal health, including numerical targets in four years, party sources said Thursday.

The party will also consider presenting a target year in which the nation could put the primary fiscal balance of the central and local governments in the black, the sources said.

The plans are based on the premise that the party will take power and stay there for the next four years by ousting the Liberal Democratic Party-New Komeito ruling coalition in the Aug. 30 general election.

The policy would be mapped out around the end of this year, when the government finishes compiling a budget for the fiscal year beginning next April, or later, the sources said.

A new tax commission that would replace the government's tax commission, and a new "national strategy bureau" — both of which are planned to be set up under a DPJ-led government — would be in charge of devising the policy, the sources added.

The DPJ did not address the fiscal issue in its campaign platform, which was announced on July 27, provoking the LDP and New Komeito to criticize the opposition for being less than responsible.

The DPJ has decided it needs to show how it aims to restore the nation's fiscal health as a party in power, given the worsening of the nation's fiscal state amid the global economic downturn and the projected ballooning of social security costs, the sources said.

But because tax revenues are not projected to expand rapidly, the government is expected to continue issuing bonds in the next fiscal year and later.

Given the situation, the key to restoring the nation's fiscal health under a DPJ-led government lies in how it would be able to find a new source of money by reorganizing the budget items and cutting waste, which the DPJ has vowed to do, pundits say.

The formulation of such a policy could also affect discussions on hiking the 5 percent consumption tax, which the DPJ has vowed not to do for at least four years.

For years, the government had been aiming to achieve a surplus in the primary balance — revenue matching spending, excluding debt payments — by March 2012, but gave up after issuing bonds to pay for a series of economic stimulus packages.

The government decided in June to try to achieve a surplus in the primary balance at the national and local levels by March 2020 through a consumption tax hike.

The amount of outstanding government bonds is projected to come to \591 trillion at the end of next March, according to the government.

Sell fewer bonds: DPJ
The Democratic Party of Japan said it will try its best to make the state budget less dependent on annual issues of government bonds if it comes to power after the Aug. 30 election, one of its key lawmakers said Friday.

"We want to lower the rate of dependence on government bonds, as well as the amount of new bonds if possible," said Kohei Otsuka, who played an important role in formulating the main opposition party's pledges for the coming House of Representatives election.

At a meeting with market analysts, Otsuka, deputy head of the DPJ's research council, tried to ease concerns about Japan's ballooning deficit.

Otsuka said it would be unrealistic not to issue any government bonds in light of the country's huge budgetary needs.

But he argued that the DPJ's policy pledges — which some see as spendthrift — would not lead to a fiscal deterioration as the party is planning to keep a lid on costs by cutting wasteful public spending, instead of issuing deficit-covering bonds.

Asked about the DPJ's foreign-exchange policy, Otsuka, a former Bank of Japan official, said ensuring market stability is a key concern.

Regardless of whether the government changes, Japan's management of its ample foreign currency reserves should be consistent and take into account Tokyo's strong ties with Washington, he said.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Warrant issued for actress Sakai

(Kyodo News) Police have an arrest warrant out for missing actress Noriko Sakai in connection with the arrest earlier this week of her husband for alleged possession of stimulant drugs, investigative sources said Friday.

Her husband, Yuichi Takaso, 41, was quoted by police as saying Sakai possessed the drugs.

Tokyo police are continuing to search for the 38-year-old former starlet and singer, who grew hugely popular in Japan and other parts of Asia in the 1990s, and plan to arrest her as soon as they can.

The Metropolitan Police Department obtained the warrant after finding a small amount of drugs in her home and questioning her husband Takaso, the sources said.

Takaso, a self-proclaimed professional surfer, was arrested Monday after a police officer found a plastic bag containing stimulants in his underwear in Tokyo's Shibuya district. Sakai was summoned to the arrest site but declined a police request to come to the police station and volunteer for a urine test.

She then disappeared with her 10-year-old son, who was found safe Thursday in Tokyo at the home of an acquaintance. Police attempted to locate her by tracing her cell phone signals to Yamanashi Prefecture but had lost her trail by Tuesday evening.

On Friday, the police said Sakai asked the acquaintance to let her hear her son's voice after calling from a public phone at an unidentified location Wednesday.

Sakai made her acting debut in a TV drama in 1986 and released her first record the next year. Her popularity expanded overseas in the early 1990s.

After getting married in 1998 and giving birth to her first son in 1999, Sakai appeared in TV commercials, transforming her image to reflect a good mother in a happy family.

News that Sakai's arrest was sought has bewildered legal officials, particularly those at the Supreme Court who selected her for the leading role in a movie to promote the new lay judge system.

In 1993, she appeared in an event promoting campaigns against drug abuse.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
68 of 100 who voted LDP in '05 have seen enough

(Kyodo News) Out of 100 people who voted for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the 2005 general election, 68 of them now think the government should be changed in the Aug. 30 poll, survey results showed Friday.

The Kyodo News survey of 50 men and 50 women in their 20s to 70s from across Japan conducted between July 22 and 31 found that many prefer a change and expressed support for the reform initiatives four years ago of then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

In seeking a change of administration, they cited such reasons as wanting the LDP to reflect on what it has done and the hope that a new administration will end the "amakudari" practice in which bureaucrats land plum jobs after retirement in industries they once oversaw, often resulting in widespread corruption and conflict of interest.

Those opposed to a change of government attributed their stance to the inadequacy of the Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition force and projected victor in the coming poll, and their hopes the LDP will reform itself and be led by relatively young members.

Sixty-one said they felt good about voting for the LDP in the 2005 election — in which the LDP won an overwhelming victory — because reforms at the time lived up to their expectations and the result, they think, changed the atmosphere of the political world.

One such respondent pointed out that Koizumi's reforms were spoiled by subsequent LDP administrations, alluding to the governments headed by Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and current Prime Minister Taro Aso, after Koizumi stepped down in 2006.

Others said that they regret having backed the LDP because the situation has worsened, with the income gap among workers widening and employers adding more temporary workers, and that pains were forced on the people.

Fifty-two said they support Koizumi's structural reforms, but others said they are worse off due to such negative effects of the reforms as decreased income and worries about employment. One woman said her husband lost his job.

Asked what policies they want the administration to pursue after the poll, many picked areas closely related to their livelihoods.

news20090808jt3

[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
New Party Nippon pledges 'basic income' for all
By ALEX MARTIN
Staff writer

Minor opposition party New Party Nippon unveiled its campaign platform Friday, promising several major policies, including the enactment of a monthly "basic income" allowance for all citizens and a re-examination of all public-works projects to cut down on wasteful spending.

Referring to the nation's declining birthrate and aging population, party President Yasuo Tanaka said that "what's important for Japan now is not growth, but the maturing of the economy and society."

Tanaka, a writer and former Nagano governor, went on to explain the rest of his party's platform, which includes the "eradication of collusive ties between politicians and bureaucrats," the rehabilitation of the manufacturing industry and the creation of regional employment. Tanaka also proposed founding an international rescue team, tentatively called the "Thunderbird team" in reference to a 1960s British television show.

New Party Nippon was formed in 2005 by Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers opposed to then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's postal privatization drive.

The party was initially seen as appealing to urban voters, while Kokumin Shinto (People's New Party), which was also formed by LDP postal reform rebels and a likely coalition partner of the Democratic Party of Japan if the DPJ wins the Aug. 30 election, has a more rural support base.

But with the defection of several former LDP lawmakers from the party, Tanaka currently remains the sole member with a seat in the Diet, which he won in the 2007 Upper House election.

Although on friendly terms with the DPJ, Tanaka is known to occasionally vote against or abstain from DPJ-backed legislation.

Tanaka, 53, will run in the Hyogo No. 8 district in the Aug. 30 poll with the support of the DPJ.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
First nisei U.S. federal judge is dead at 78
Robert Takasugi rose from internment camp to national prominence Linda Deutsch
By LINDA DEUTSCH
The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) U.S. District Judge Robert M. Takasugi, who was sent to an internment camp with his family during World War II and overcame discrimination to become the first Japanese-American appointed to the federal bench, has died at the age of 78.

Takasugi, a much-honored jurist who presided over the high-profile trial of automaker John Z. DeLorean in 1984 and authored groundbreaking opinions on constitutional issues during his 33 years on the bench, died Tuesday at a Los Angeles nursing home after a number of illnesses, according to his son, Superior Court Judge Jon Takasugi.

In 2002, Takasugi gained national attention for his dismissal of indictments of Iranian and Iranian-American defendants alleged to be members of a terrorist cell attempting to overthrow the Iranian government. The group challenged their characterization as a terrorist organization. Takasugi held that the classification was unconstitutional because it was made without due process.

In the post-9/11 climate of public opinion, it was not a popular ruling, invalidating a portion of the Patriot Act.

Among his other significant rulings was a preliminary injunction barring the Los Angeles Police Department from using a controversial chokehold and a decision to release FBI documents under the Freedom of Information Act related to the politically motivated surveillance of singer John Lennon.

"He was one of my heroes," said Judge Harry Pregerson of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. "When he was presiding over a case, you knew the Constitution and the Bill of Rights were in good hands. . . . He would always ensure that the parties, no matter how humble or important, would get a fair trial."

In 1984, he drew international attention with the case of DeLorean, who was charged with cocaine trafficking.

Attorney Howard Weitzman, who represented DeLorean, had known Takasugi for years but said that played no role in DeLorean's acquittal. When Takasugi was on the bench, he treated all parties equally, Weitzman said.

"He had an innate ability to be fair, sometimes tough, but always acted with compassion," he said.

Takasugi's life was marked by overcoming discrimination.

Born in Tacoma, Wash., on Sept. 12, 1930, he was the son of impoverished Japanese parents who had immigrated to the United States in search of a better life. In 1942, when Robert was 12, they were taken to an internment camp in Tule Lake, Calif., part of the 130,000 Japanese-Americans interned during the war. In the camp, his father died for lack of medical care.

He rarely talked about the experience, except to call it "an education to be fair."

But it was soul-searing. In later life, when Takasugi took up art, he often drew pictures of barbed-wire fences, guard towers and tar paper barracks, his son said.

Eventually Takasugi and his mother moved to Los Angeles, where he attended Belmont High School and then the University of California at Los Angeles. He was drafted into the U.S. Army during the Korean War and upon discharge he attended the University of Southern California Law Center with the aid of the GI Bill.

He often recalled that there were only four minority students in his class and discrimination kept them from getting work when they graduated. He and the only Latino student, future Superior Court Judge Carlos Velarde, opened their own practice representing indigents arrested in the Watts Riots and Civil Rights protesters.

Sometimes, he was paid in tamales and chickens, his son said.

He was appointed to the East Los Angeles Municipal Court bench in 1973 by the Gov. Ronald Reagan. He moved up to Superior Court and was named to the federal bench by President Gerald Ford in 1976, the first Japanese-American, according to the Asian Pacific American Legal Center and others.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Yokosuka U.S. destroyer visits Yamagata port

YAMAGATA PREF. (Kyodo) The Aegis destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur made a port call Friday in Sakata, Yamagata Prefecture, on what the U.S. Navy in Japan calls a "goodwill visit."

It is the first call by a U.S. Aegis destroyer to the Sea of Japan port, triggering a protest among residents who claim U.S. forces are trying to make Sakata "a sortie base."

The 8,346-ton 7th Fleet destroyer, with a crew of 228, deployed to Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, is scheduled to stay at the Yamagata port until Monday.

The navy said the crew "expects to engage in community service projects, social events, take the opportunity to meet the citizens, enjoy sightseeing and shopping areas and learn more about the rich cultural and historic heritage of this area."

However, critics suspect the port call is an attempt by the U.S. military to set a precedent of using civilian facilities, saying the crew could study the depths at the port.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Obama trusts Roos to manage Japan ties

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday partnership with Japan is the cornerstone of U.S. security and economic prosperity and California-based lawyer John Roos, his choice as the next U.S. ambassador to Japan, will help bolster the regional and global relationships between the nations.

Obama made the remarks in a White House meeting with Roos, 54, one of his major fundraisers during the presidential campaign. Roos' nomination is expected to soon win full Senate approval. If approved, Roos will serve as point man for U.S. policy on Japan.

"I think many of you are aware that a partnership between the United States and Japan is one of tremendous interest," Obama said at the outset of the talks. "It's one of the cornerstones of (both) our security and economic well-being."

"We have an extraordinarily close relationship based on shared values and shared interests," Obama said. "There is enormous respect between the people of Japan and the people of the United States."

Obama said he "placed great importance" in the selection of the next U.S. ambassador and voiced confidence that Roos will do a good job.

He said Roos is "somebody who I'm confident is going to be able to help to strengthen both the regional and the global relationship between the United States and Japan."

"He's somebody who will be able to advise me directly on issues that may arise and opportunities that may arise in the U.S.-Japanese relationship. He is somebody who is, I know, going to be working incredibly hard to make sure that he is listening to and understanding the full scope of Japanese concerns," Obama added.

Roos is almost unknown among U.S. and Japanese officials and experts. As he has had no diplomatic or security experience, some doubt has been raised about his qualifications now that North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are major concerns.

Another key task for him will be to oversee a pact committing Japan and the United States to following through on the planned transfer of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam by 2014, contingent upon the completion and start of operations of a replacement air base in the prefecture that year.

news20090808jt4

[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
ELECTION 2009
DPJ shows stress fractures under pressure of leadership
Diverse membership makes for inconsistent diplomatic policies
By JUN HONGO
Staff writer

Third in a series

After more than a decade of challenging the ruling coalition on their conservative diplomatic policies, the Democratic Party of Japan will head into the Aug. 30 election with a legitimate shot at taking control of the Diet.

But experts say center stage could bring out the DPJ's true colors, possibly causing disarray that could even end up in an in-house exchange of blows.

"The DPJ has many unanswered questions regarding its strategy on foreign affairs," said Yasuhiko Yoshida, an international politics professor at Osaka University of Economics and Law. "Diplomacy is likely to be a factor that will cause quarrels with other parties as well as within the DPJ."

Chasms run deep between the foreign policies of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the DPJ, with the two groups clashing over the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces overseas to the more complex reconfiguration of the U.S. Marine Corps presence, and possible downsizing, in Okinawa.

With the chance of gaining the upper hand at the Diet in sight, the DPJ hastily softened its position by promising not to immediately pull the Maritime Self-Defense Force from its current logistic support in the Indian Ocean.

The party also said it will work on an inspection bill directed at North Korean ships in line with U.N Resolution 1874, which it chose not to discuss in the previous Diet session.

Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone, an LDP member, was quick to pounce on the DPJ's inconsistency, noting the party's five priorities described in its policy platform did not include diplomacy.

"Excluding foreign affairs from the list of the party's priorities seems a bit odd to me. Their stance on diplomacy remains unclear," Nakasone told reporters last month.

Foreign Ministry bureaucrats are also at a loss over how their role will change after the election, with one senior official admitting having no clear clue about the DPJ's diplomatic strategy.

Being an ensemble of lawmakers with diverse backgrounds, including LDP defectors and former Socialists, the DPJ's diplomatic stands has been ambiguous since its launch in 1998.

On the liberal side are those who joined the party from the now-defunct Socialist Democratic Federation (Shaminren), including current Upper House President Satsuki Eda and DPJ acting President Naoto Kan.

Yoshio Hachiro, the foreign minister of the DPJ's shadow Cabinet, comes from the former Japan Socialist Party, which has since become the Social Democratic Party. He strongly supports Article 9 of the Constitution and questions the legality of dispatching the SDF overseas.

Members of the party's conservative camp, including former President Seiji Maehara, meanwhile do not oppose sending the SDF abroad and favor exercising the right to collective self-defense.

Lower House member Jin Matsubara caused controversy in 2006 by referring to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre as "propaganda" by the Chinese government. Matsubara's comments came four years after Kan was criticized by rightists for visiting the Nanjing Massacre Memorial Hall and sending wreaths to a monument for victims of Japan's atrocities.

"There are so many opinions within that party," a Foreign Ministry bureaucrat said when asked about the DPJ's position. "They have many things going on even within their own factions," and uncertainties remain until it really takes power, the bureaucrat said.

Regarding bilateral diplomacy, many say DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, who would presumably become prime minister if the party wins the election, may seek to revise Japan's relations with key partners, most notably the U.S.

Hatoyama, a graduate of Stanford University, said he will seek an "equal" partnership with Washington based on mutual trust. The party's list of policies published last month said Japan will fulfill its share of international responsibilities, but will also assert its claims to Washington.

True to the pledge, Hatoyama raised eyebrows by hinting at a revision of the 2006 road map on the reorganization of U.S. forces in Japan. The U.S. was quick to disapprove.

In its policy package, the DPJ also states it will seek a revision of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement.

The party has also said it will disclose secret pacts between Tokyo and Washington, including an agreement that required Japan to shoulder $4 million of the costs for Okinawa's 1972 reversion to Japanese rule and the agreement on stopovers in Japan of U.S. warships and military aircraft carrying nuclear weapons.

The current LDP-New Komeito government maintains those pacts don't exist, despite a raft of evidence, including declassified U.S. documents, and testimony.

Yoshimitsu Nishikawa, a professor of international relations at Toyo University, said it is natural for the DPJ to try new measures and seek autonomy, but warned that some of its proposals could cause tension with Washington.

"If in fact the DPJ pulls the MSDF from the Indian Ocean, there could be reaction from the U.S.," Nishikawa said on Hatoyama's signal that he wound not extend the Indian Ocean mission beyond January.

The DPJ will probably make substitute proposals to the U.S. to bring the MSDF flotilla home, but this could backfire on ties with Washington.

Nishikawa reckoned that in a worst-case-scenario, the U.S. could become less inclined to closely collaborate in dealing with North Korea's nuclear threat and in putting pressure on Pyongyang to resolve its kidnapping of Japanese, and even decrease the level of bilateral security cooperation.

"Sadly, it's also true that the U.S. doesn't mind what Japan chooses to do at this point," Nishikawa said, since the U.S. can simply cut its favors for Tokyo if Japan chooses not to collaborate. "In reality, Japan isn't a crucial partner for the U.S. anymore," Nishikawa figured.

On Russia, Hatoyama appears confident of modifying ties since his late grandfather, Ichiro, is known in Moscow as the man who signed a joint statement with the Soviet Union in 1956.

Policies toward North Korea may not see a full makeover, but the DPJ's liberal strategies, which include creating a new war memorial in place of the contentious Yasukuni Shrine, could ease tensions with neighboring countries, particularly China and South Korea.

But Toyo University's Nishikawa doubts any substantial diplomatic progress with those countries, because the DPJ would not be expected to deviate too far from the policies of the LDP.

"Hatoyama said he will push for a conclusion of the territorial row with Russia, but he hasn't proposed any specific measures," he said.

Although the DPJ is often said to have closer ties with other parts of Asia, particularly China, than the LDP, Nishikawa questioned whether the party's links with Chinese leaders, for example, are strong as the party has never been in power.

"I don't see any DPJ lawmaker who has strong ties with Chinese counterparts," he said.

But Osaka professor Yoshida questions whether the DPJ will get that far to begin with, since a coalition with the other opposition parties, including the SDP, is inevitable unless it wins the Aug. 30 election by a landslide.

"In reality, the DPJ's policies are closer to that of the LDP than the SDP," Yoshida said, indicating a coalition with the left-leaning SDP could alienate the party's conservative players and cause an internal meltdown.

"It's easy to picture a scenario where the DPJ administration fails in a year or two — and a new group of liberal LDP and conservative DPJ members fuse together to create a new administration," he said.

In this series, we take a close look at possible changes under a DPJ-led government and compare them with current policies under LDP rule. The next piece will appear on Page 3 on Wednesday.

Competing foreign policies
• Japan-U.S. relations:

LDP: Seeks to strengthen bilateral ties, calling the relationship with the United States "the axis of Japan's foreign policy." DPJ: Has pledged to create an "equal" partnership with Washington and "build a relationship of mutual trust."

• Futenma Air Base:

LDP: Backs the 2006 road map on realigning U.S. forces in Japan, including the prompt relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma within Okinawa. DPJ: Questions the relocation process, hinting it may oppose the road map and try to move the Futenma air base outside Okinawa.

• Maritime Self-Defense Force dispatch to Indian Ocean:

LDP: Supports the mission as a key element of Japan's contribution to international security and the fight against terrorism. DPJ: Opposes MSDF participation in the mission, hinting it will not extend the dispatch beyond January.

• Self-Defense Forces:

LDP: Believes in the need to provide support to allies, including the launch of interceptor missiles to protect U.S. vessels. DPJ: Argues the SDF should maintain a defense-only posture.

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[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
MIXED MATCHES
Harley guide makes good on flight attendant's plight
By MINORU MATSUTANI
Staff writer

David Macklin, a dual citizen of Australia and Britain, said meeting his future wife, Yoriko Suzuki, in Cairns, Australia, in May 1999 was a matter of fate.

They met by coincidence. David, a guest relations officer at the hotel where Yoriko, then a Cathay Pacific flight attendant, stayed, presented himself as a Harley-Davidson-riding guide to lure her on a tour.

The Cairns-Hong Kong relationship developed fast. A month later, he proposed to her in Hong Kong.

David, 39, is now a manager of the Four Seasons Hotel in Bunkyo Ward, Tokyo, while Yoriko, 36, has become a housewife. They have lived in Tokyo since March 2007.

Their daughter, Reika Suzuki-Macklin, 7, will enter an international school in April. Their son, Kai Suzuki-Macklin, 5, goes to a Japanese kindergarten.

How did you meet?

David: I was living in Cairns, working at a hotel. Yoriko came to stay in May 1999. I had lived in Japan for two years until 1998.

Yoriko: I was a flight attendant and wanted to fly to Cairns for a long time. That was the only time I flew there. After I arrived in Cairns, the pilots went on strike so our stay was extended to nine days.

David: On the day I met Yoriko, I was scheduled to work the morning shift, but my colleague asked me to change her night shift with my morning shift. So I changed the shift. I was lucky because Yoriko came down. She asked me for directions to Ayers Rock, but there was no such tour at short notice.

Yoriko: Then he told me there was a sightseeing tour riding a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. So I went to the hotel lobby at 4 p.m. the next day as he told me.

Then came a guy wearing a black helmet, sunglasses and all-black clothes. When he took off his sunglasses, I realized it was him.

That night, I had dinner with him and his sister's boyfriend at his place.

David: It was fate. If it wasn't for me being considerate to my colleague and changing shifts, and then if it wasn't for the pilots' strike, we wouldn't have met.

What happened after Yoriko left Cairns?

Yoriko: I went back to Hong Kong, where I was based. I was going to Eastern Europe with my friend, but her mother got sick and couldn't go. I had a two-week holiday and didn't know what to do. Then David told me to come to Cairns again, so I did. He had planned tours and it was great. Then I went back to Hong Kong, and he took a holiday to come to Hong Kong two weeks later. It was June that year.

How did you propose?

David: It was in Hong Kong. It was my first time in Hong Kong. She showed me around, took me to many places. Then we went to a restaurant in the Peninsula Hotel. It was so perfect. The view of the harbor and Victoria Peak. We had a nice glass of wine. And it just came out of my mouth. "Will you marry me?"

Yoriko: I asked him a question, I don't remember what. Then he thought for a while. Instead of answering, he popped the question. I lost my appetite for happiness and shock. That was a full course, but I couldn't eat anything.

David: It was the moment I had to catch. This had only been five weeks since we met. Sometimes you know the right things to do. And you just have to grasp the moment.

How did it go when you met Yoriko's parents?

David: We met Yoriko's parents in Osaka in September 1999. We planned the whole day going to Osaka Castle, downtown sights and a perfect dinner with the four of us. I practiced "keigo" (honorific speech) learning from a Japanese friend of mine in Cairns.

Yoriko: I told my parents I would bring a boyfriend from Australia. I didn't tell them he had proposed to me, but thought they would figure it out because he was coming a long way. My parents were both feeling good drinking wine. When we had dessert, he said, "Ojosan to kekkon sasete itadakemasenka?" ("Will you let me marry your daughter?"). My parents froze. My mother said, "Congratulations" after 30 or 40 seconds of silence. My father never spoke that night. The next day, the four of us went on an "onsen" (hot spring) trip, and I was relieved to see David and my father drinking beer together and talking happily.

How did it go when you met David's parents?

Yoriko: I went to Adelaide in December 1999. I was welcomed warmly, received Christmas presents and birthday presents as my birthday is Dec. 27. His parents, grandmother, his younger sister with her family and her single elder sister were there.

How was your wedding?

Yoriko: We had it in Adelaide in April 24, 2000. Not in Osaka or Hong Kong. It was not a religious one. Someone licensed to marry people pronounced us as married.

How was it when you changed your last name from Suzuki to Suzuki-Macklin?

Yoriko: I went to City Hall, and they said I needed the court's permission. Later, I went to a court and was asked questions, like why I didn't want Macklin for my last name. I told them my bank account's name is Suzuki-Macklin.

David: I wanted to make my last name Suzuki-Macklin as well. In Australia, it's easy to change your name. You go into an office, fill out a form, show a wedding certificate and passport, wait for 20 minutes, then I would become Suzuki-Macklin. But I would have to live in Australia as Yoriko's husband for 90 days. So I didn't change it.

Who moved where to live together?

David: I moved to Hong Kong. I quit my job and just left.

Yoriko: He told me it would be easier for him to move to Hong Kong to find a hotel job than for me to move to Cairns to find a flight attendant job.

Where else did you live?

David: We moved to Washington, D.C., in October 2001. I was working for the Four Seasons Hotel in Hong Kong and I was transferred.

Yoriko: I quit Cathay Pacific and went through a job interview for the Four Seasons in D.C., but 9/11 happened and the hotel was having much fewer guests, so they could not hire me. Soon I got pregnant, so I have been a housewife since then.

What language do you speak to your children?

David: Eighty percent English and 20 percent Japanese.

Yoriko: One hundred percent Japanese.

David: Yoriko and I speak "Japlish" to each other. This consists of 80 percent English and 20 percent Japanese.

What language do your children speak to you?

Yoriko: When I speak to them, they both respond in Japanese only.

David: When I speak to them, they reply in English most of the time. But during the school holidays, they tend to speak more Japanese and therefore I have to keep reminding them to respond in English to me.

Yoriko: Our kids speak Japanese to each other unless they are in Adelaide visiting relatives. When we lived in D.C., they mostly spoke Japanese.

Did Reika resist going to an international school?

Yoriko: Yes, at first. But she liked being able to go to school by bicycle and having snacks there. Once she started going, she enjoyed it.

Where will you live in the future?

David: With my job, we (could move anywhere in) the Asia-Pacific area, depending on where a job is available.

Yoriko: Maybe Australia in the long term.


[NATIONAL NEWS]
Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009
Blind pianist Kishita performs at U.N.

NEW YORK (Kyodo) Kohshi Kishita, blind since shortly after birth, performed for the first time Wednesday at the United Nations at the opening of the sixth annual Youth Assembly, inspiring hundreds of participants with his music.

"It was awesome and very moving," said Itoro Ebong, a Nigerian who is Amnesty International's youth network coordinator in Kiev, where he is also studying medicine.

Ebong, 29, was visibly moved by Kishita's heartwarming rendition of Nat King Cole's "Smile," which peaked at No. 10 on the Billboard chart in 1954.

Despite being unable to see his audience, the diminutive pianist, 20, was buoyed by a huge round of applause in the middle of his performance as he belted out the lyrics to the famous jazz song.

Ebong was unfamiliar with Kishita, who first began playing at age 2 and eventually became a household name in Japan after NHK produced a documentary about his life. But he indicated he believes the musician was an "inspirational" choice to kick off the three-day youth-oriented program.

In his own life, Kishita has drawn inspiration from Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles, both of whom share his experience as visually impaired performers who rose to fame.

news20090808lat

[Today's Newspaper] from [Los Angeles Times]

[Top News]
Unemployment rate decline may indicate the recession has hit bottom
But the surprise decline to 9.4% in July from 9.5% in June came as the nation lost 247,000 more jobs last month, bringing the total since the recession began to 6.7 million.
By Jim Puzzanghera and Marc Lifsher
August 8, 2009

Reporting from Sacramento and Washington Marc Lifsher -- A surprising drop in the nation's unemployment rate provided another strong indication that the recession has hit bottom, but analysts warned that it still would take months for the economy to climb out of its deep hole.

The decline in the jobless rate to 9.4% last month from 9.5% in June came as the nation lost 247,000 more jobs in July, bringing the total since the recession began to 6.7 million.

But July's losses were fewer than expected and a far cry from the 645,000 job losses the economy averaged each month from November through April.

Economists were encouraged that the jobless rate now has remained essentially flat for three months. The new figures prompted a fresh rally on Wall Street and followed recent indications that the worst of the recession was over, with the decline in gross domestic product slowing dramatically and home sales numbers improving.

Some economists were forecasting growth beginning again in the second half of the year.

"The dawn of an economic recovery is here," said Sung Won Sohn, a nationally known economist at Cal State Channel Islands in Camarillo. "The sharp contraction in employment has moderated, pointing to the end of the recession."

Friday's decrease in the unemployment rate -- the first drop since early 2008 -- came because job cuts slowed in some industries, including manufacturing, while the auto industry saw fewer layoffs than anticipated.

But the Labor Department said there was a discouraging reason for the auto industry's increase of 28,000 jobs -- "previous cuts had been so extensive that there were fewer workers to lay off during the seasonal shutdown."

But unemployment continues to be a problem, and the rate probably will rise again before job creation starts sometime next year, economists said. They pointed out that new jobs created in the first few months of the recovery were unlikely to keep up with the growth of the labor force.

Although the job loss is continuing and is forecast to continue into next year, the pace has slowed considerably. The economy lost 443,000 jobs in June, revised from an earlier estimate of 467,000.

"The huge increases are now behind us," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for IHS-Global Insight, who had forecast the unemployment rate to hit 10.3% but may revise that downward. "We're in the process of beginning to flatten out here."

Still, that means the number of unemployed will continue to increase from the current 14.5 million people, as well as the 8.8 million underemployed Americans who have had to settle for part-time jobs.

About 9 million people rely on unemployment benefits to pay for housing, food and other basic needs. And for many of them, unemployment checks may be running out.

"It's kind of hard to be positive when you have no irons in the fire and no callbacks," said Debra Trepagnier, 54, of Compton, whose benefits run out in October. She is an administrative clerical worker who has only been able to get seasonal, part-time employment with the Los Angeles Unified School District.

For about 540,000 long-term unemployed, the checks will stop coming beginning next month, according to the National Employment Law Project, a Washington group that advocates for low-wage workers.

A million more jobless people could be in the same boat by year's end, unless Congress authorizes another benefit extension, the fourth in a prolonged 21-month recession. The extension, even for an additional 13 or 20 weeks, can't come soon enough for many increasingly desperate California workers.

Benefits run out in September for A.C. Soria, a construction project manager from Costa Mesa. He worries that he's depleting his once-substantial savings even after getting the maximum weekly benefit of $475.

Soria, 55 and single, said he no longer could afford to pay for health insurance.

"It's rough out there. Nobody is working," he said. "I've been looking seriously for about a year, but I've had only six interviews" since being laid off in March 2008 as remodeling supervisor for a chain of coffee-and-tea shops.

Benefits will expire for 143,000 Californians as of Sept. 1, and all three current extensions will on Dec. 31, affecting a total of 264,000 people, according to the California Employment Development Department.

"It's a pretty desperate situation in California," said Maurice Emsellem, policy co-director in Oakland for the National Employment Law Project. Long-term jobless people probably have "depleted their savings and moved out of their houses," he said.

California's unemployment rate was 11.6% in June, more than two percentage points above the national figure and the sixth-highest in the country.

President Obama touted the July drop in the nation's unemployment rate as a sign that his administration's policies, including the $787-billion stimulus package, had helped rescue the economy from catastrophe while starting to "build a new foundation for growth."

But he said the continued job losses still needed to be addressed.

"As far as I'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery as long as we're losing jobs, and we won't rest until every American that is looking for work can find a job," Obama said.

Other signs of economic trouble remain. Retail sales are on track to drop for the 11th straight month in July. And high unemployment remains a major impediment to a recovery.

With so many Americans still out of work, the Obama administration and Congress are considering acting again to extend unemployment benefits.

States pay for standard unemployment benefits, generally offering 26 weeks of checks. But in dark economic times, the federal government often pays to extend them. Workers in California and other states with high unemployment now are eligible for as many as 79 weeks of benefits.

In July, the number of people who had been without work for at least 27 weeks increased by 584,000 to a total of 5 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The House will take up legislation next month to continue the federal extensions through 2010 and provide an additional 13 weeks for California and 19 other states with an average unemployment rate of at least 9% over the previous three months.

news20090808nyt

[Today's Newspaper] from [The New York Times]

[Economy]
Job Losses Slow, Signaling Momentum for a Recovery
By LOUIS UCHITELLE and JACK HEALY
Published: August 7, 2009

The most heartening employment report since last summer suggested on Friday that a recovery was under way — and perhaps gathering steam — despite the reluctance of the nation’s businesses to resume hiring or even stop shedding jobs.

Employers eliminated 247,000 jobs in July, a huge number by the standards of an ordinary recession, but the smallest monthly loss since last August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. And the unemployment rate, rising for months, actually ticked down, to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June, mainly because so many people dropped out of the hunt for work, ceasing to list themselves as unemployed.

“Employers are no longer in a panic,” said Ian C. Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics. “The pressure they felt to get rid of workers in a hurry is diminishing. What we don’t see yet is enough momentum in the economy to convince companies to hire again.”

Obama administration officials credited the stimulus package, enacted in February, for the continuing improvement, from a peak of 741,000 jobs lost in January. Some said the July loss would have been closer to 500,000 without the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The president, appearing briefly in the White House Rose Garden, said his administration had “rescued our economy from catastrophe.”

Responding to a report that was better than expected, stock investors drove up the Dow Jones industrial average by 114 points, or 1.2 percent.

Just a week earlier, the government announced another significant improvement — the overall economy contracted at an annual rate of only 1 percent in the spring quarter, vastly better than the fall and winter months. The two reports have convinced many forecasters that when the history of the Great Recession is written, these summer months will be the big turning point, when the economy started to grow again.

“The labor market, like the overall economy, is beginning to stabilize, with the expectation that job losses will approach zero by the end of the year,” said Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers, who expects the unemployment rate to peak at less than 10 percent.

After months of painful job losses, the Obama administration was clearly relieved at the brightening picture. The president, his advisers and administration economists pointed to their actions to stimulate the economy. Only $100 billion of the $787 billion package has filtered into the economy so far, with much of the remainder to be spent next year.

“The fingerprints of the Recovery Act are all over this data,” said Jared Bernstein, the chief economist for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “Were it not for the economic activity generated by the act, we would have lost hundreds of thousands more jobs last month.”

The Republicans offered a rebuttal shortly after the president spoke in the early afternoon. “No one would argue that the stimulus has done nothing, but it certainly does not look like we are getting our money’s worth,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economic adviser to John McCain during his presidential campaign, said in a conference call.

The employment report released Friday included some unsettling information. True, the job loss in July was just over half of the 443,000 jobs lost in June. And the number of hours worked in a week rose by one-tenth to 33.1 hours, halting a lengthy decline.

But never in the 61 years of recordkeeping has one-third of the unemployed, currently 14.5 million people, been out of work for 27 weeks or more.

Karen Triplett in Atlanta keeps trying to escape the fate of the long-term unemployed. Ms. Triplett, who is 61, lost her job selling advertising in February and has been hitting “wall after wall ever since,” as she puts it. The only job offer, she said, turned out to be a scam, and her income has fallen from $60,000 a year to $1,100 a month in unemployment benefits. “I’m struggling just to pay my house note,” she said.

Thousands of others are giving up. More than 400,000 who had been looking for work dropped out of the labor force in July, not even bothering to tell government pollsters that they would accept a job, part time or full time, if one came their way.

“If there had been no drop in this labor force participation, if all those people had continued to look for work, then the unemployment rate last month would have ticked up, to 9.7 percent,” said Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at IHS Global Insight.

Mr. Gault, sharing a view held by most economists, says the unemployment rate won’t really begin to fall until employers are adding workers, at least 100,000 a month to keep pace with population growth, something not likely to happen until February or March, if then.

A broader measure of the nation’s unemployment, which includes people too discouraged to look for work or forced to work only part time, slipped to 16.3 percent from its peak of 16.5 percent in June.

Through July, 6.7 million jobs have disappeared since the recession began in December 2007, with manufacturers accounting for nearly one-third of the loss. But manufacturing losses in July eased to 52,000, largely because of a fluke in the auto industry.

Car factories usually shut in July for vacations or retooling, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics takes this into account in its seasonal formulas. But this year, with General Motors and Chrysler in turmoil, the layoffs came mostly in May and June. The auto industry, as a result, was credited with a rise of 28,000 jobs in July, seasonally adjusted. In fact, automakers cut 8,600 jobs.

Although the number of lost jobs has dwindled nearly every month this year, the losses continue to cut across nearly every business sector, with manufacturing and construction the hardest hit.

The health services sector stands apart from this trend, once again adding workers, about the only sector to have done so through the recession. Local governments, along with the federal government, added 7,000 workers, with the help of stimulus money.

The stimulus is crucial, Mr. Shepherdson said. “If it were to stop, the economy would grind to a halt. There is no momentum from consumer spending or business investment."

news20090808wp

[Today's Newspaper] fom [The Washington Post]

[Business]
In Jobless Rate Dip, a Partial Picture
Unemployment Figure Sparks Recovery Hopes; Other Data Show Sector Still Ailing
By Neil Irwin and Annys Shin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, August 8, 2009

Unemployment dipped in July for the first time in 15 months, but the jobs data released Friday also brought into focus the limits of the budding economic recovery.

The new numbers raised hopes that the recession could be nearing an end. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent, from 9.5 percent in June, and employers slashed 247,000 jobs, the slowest rate of decline in nearly a year.

For all the optimism in Washington and on Wall Street -- President Obama said the economy is "pointed in the right direction," and the stock market rose 1.3 percent -- some details in the report show that the labor market remains weak. The stabilization in the economy is not rippling through to ordinary American workers. Economists generally expect the unemployment rate to resume its rise in the coming months, ultimately reaching or surpassing 10 percent.

The July decline in the jobless rate came about not because more people had jobs, but because 422,000 people removed themselves from the labor force, essentially giving up the search for work. The number of long-term unemployed people -- those who have been out of a job but looking for more than 26 weeks -- rose by another 584,000.

"There's nothing really happening right now," said Marc Patterson, 31, a Southeast Washington resident unemployed for seven months who had little luck finding work as a janitor. "There aren't too many jobs."

And the number of jobs with employment services companies continued declining in July. Increases in that number tend to forecast broader gains in employment as companies reluctant to hire permanent employees bring on temps to handle rising demand.

"If we don't see temp jobs go positive by September or October, in my mind, that would indicate we've got a longer way to go," said Roy G. Krause, chief executive of Spherion, a large employment services firm. His own company saw modest growth in demand for workers in the second quarter, he said, as "some employers have cut back a little bit too much and therefore they're starting to add a few people."

The ongoing weakness in the job market is the key factor leaning against a robust recovery. The unemployment rate almost always lags at the end of recessions -- sometimes by long periods of time -- and many economists expect the unemployment rate to resume rising in the months ahead.

That is because as companies stop laying off workers in massive numbers, moderating the rate of job losses, those who have given up looking for work may re-enter the labor force -- a major risk to an otherwise improving outlook.

"We're still headed pretty quickly to 10 percent unemployment," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal-leaning think tank. "Unemployment will be rising for the next year or more."

And while the rate of job loss in July was slower than economists forecast, it still represents what is, by conventional measures, a very rapid contraction. Employers need to create around 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, so it would take a major reversal for conditions to improve.

"We're stabilizing the patient, but the patient is still sick," Labor Secretary Hilda L. Solis acknowledged in a conference call with reporters Friday.

There were signs of progress in the report. The average workweek ticked up slightly, to 33.1 hours, from an all-time low of 33 hours in June. The number of people working part-time who want a full-time job fell by 191,000, the second straight month of decline. Those numbers suggest that at least some employers are starting to reverse the cutbacks in workers' schedules.

And the picture for payroll employment improved across many categories. There were gains not just in government employment, but in the leisure and hospitality sector and in education and health services. Even those sectors that continue shedding jobs are now doing so at a slower pace. The 52,000 jobs shed by manufacturers were the fewest lost by that sector in a year.

Another positive sign: The Labor Department revised upward its earlier, more negative estimates for job losses in June, suggesting those numbers were not as dire as first reported.

The Obama administration is in a tricky position, aiming to take credit for a stabilizing economy as it reminds people how much worse conditions were last winter, all while also appearing sympathetic to those who remain in dire employment situations. "We won't rest until every American that is looking for work can find a job," Obama said in the Rose Garden on Friday, also saying that the nation is beginning to put an end to the recession.

The rising number of the long-term unemployed is a particular problem for the administration since a growing number of people are facing the expiration of unemployment benefits. Solis said the administration will work with Congress to find a fix.

news20090808wsj

[Today's Paper] from [The Wall Street Journal]

[Economy]
AUGUST 8, 2009
Slowing Job Losses Put Economy on Firmer Footing
Growth Hinges on Whether Businesses Begin Restocking Shelves, Hiring Workers
By SARA MURRAY

With the smallest job declines in a year, a recovery appears in sight. But businesses are proceeding with caution, uncertain of how strong a rebound will be.

Early signs of a stabilizing labor market added to the belief that the economy could grow in the second half of the year. Much of that growth hinges on whether businesses begin restocking shelves and ramping up their work force -- a tricky decision for companies still dealing with wary consumers.

An increase in the average workweek is a good start, though. In July, it rose 0.1 hours for private workers and even more, 0.3 hours, for manufacturing employees. "That's typically a leading sign that hiring is going to start to recover several months in the future," said Steven Wood, Insight Economics LLC's chief economist.

Some companies' plans reflect the optimism. JTEKT Automotive, an auto-supplies manufacturer in Vonore, Tenn., rehired 65 employees after furloughing 135 workers earlier this year. An uptick in new orders spurred the hiring, said Craig Woodford, president of the Vonore location. But he's concerned it might not last.

"We were just talking about whether that's a bubble associated with 'cash for clunkers' or whether this is sustainable," Mr. Woodford said. "We're also using overtime to give ourselves some of that hedge in case it's just a bubble."

Government initiatives, particularly the clunkers program, which offers a $3,000 or $4,500 credit to buy a new car if you trade one in, are expected to boost consumer spending in coming months; economists also have ramped up expectations of growth in third-quarter gross domestic product, some as high as 4%. With only about a third of the $787 billion in stimulus money pumped into the economy so far, the Recovery Act should help add jobs in the second half and into next year.

With the spate of good news -- fewer job cuts, an increasingly stable housing sector, a possible turning point for manufacturing, improved GDP -- Barclays Capital was among the firms to conclude the recession has come to an end. "The recession is dead; long live the recovery," its note to clients said Friday.

Most, though, agree a strong recovery is impossible without the return of U.S. consumers. Whether they will continue to spend after the government programs dry up remains a big question mark, especially if the economy is shedding jobs.

"We have an extremely long way to go before we have a labor market that will allow there to be both robust employment growth and wage growth for the typical worker," said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard University labor economist. Meantime, he said, "workers fearful for their jobs and those out of work will not be robust spenders."

In a separate report, consumer credit declined at a faster rate in June as households cut their borrowing, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Total credit fell at a 4.9% annual rate, worse than the 2.6% decline in May, to $2.5 trillion outstanding.

That leaves other businesses to hold out for clearer signs of a rebound before expansion. Bobcat Co., a global farm- and construction-tools manufacturer, has already laid off between 700 and 800 employees. Another 235 job cuts are in the works.

"We have to adjust to where the market realities are today," said Rich Goldsbury, president of unit Bobcat Americas. "We haven't seen any recovery yet, so we have to adjust our production."

Though recent manufacturing and housing reports have showed the industries nearing stabilization, it hasn't lead to an increase in sales at Bobcat yet. And until it does, the company won't be changing its strategy, Mr. Goldsbury said.

His wariness is part of the reason economists haven't yet ruled out that U.S. unemployment will hit double digits. Indeed, Friday's report had its share of discouraging signs. One in three unemployed people, or five million people, have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

news20090808slt

[Today's Paper: A summary of what's in the major U.S. newspapers] from [Slate Magazine]

Take This Job and Report It
Jesse Stanchak
Posted Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, at 7:10 AM ET

Everyone leads with the newest jobs report, which finds new job losses declining to their lowest level in a year, while the unemployment rate sinks slightly to 9.4 percent, compared with 9.5 percent in June. The Los Angeles Times (LAT) calls the report a sign that the economy is finally starting to turn around. While 247,000 jobs still disappeared last month, the New York Times (NYT) writes that the relatively smaller job losses are a sign that businesses are less worried about the future. While that's hardly good news, it's still better than many analysts expected, causing the Dow Jones industrial average to rise by 114 points, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

The Washington Post (WP) focuses on the more sobering side of the report, noting that the unemployment rate fell only because 422,000 people have stopped looking for work. If the figures were readjusted to account for these people, the rate would fall at 9.7 percent, the NYT notes. The LAT reports that 14.5 million total people are out of work, while another 8.8 million are able to find only part-time work. The NYT writes that adding those figures together gives the country an unemployed/underemployed rate of 16.3 percent, compared with 16.5 percent last month.

If the recession turns out to be milder than expected, it's going to be because of swift, sizable government intervention program—at least according to the NYT. No, the paper doesn't offer any evidence establishing a causal link between financial rescue efforts and economic health. Instead, the author points to historical examples of governments that decided not to intervene in a financial crisis, with disastrous results following close behind.


The papers all off-lead with reports that Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed by a missile fired from an unmanned CIA airplane last Wednesday. The LAT is the most ebullient about the strike, hailing it as a great blow to the Taliban in that country. Mehsud was the most wanted man in Pakistan, having organized the killings of approximately 1,200 people, including former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The WP is a little more cautious, noting that while Mehsud was the link holding the county's 13 Taliban factions together, killing him may prove to be just a temporary solution. The NYT is even more skeptical, as analysts note that counterterrorism operations tend to focus too much on eliminating marquee figures. Everyone notes that Mehsud's death puts the onus on Pakistan to take advantage of this moment and pursue remaining Taliban figures.

The WP fronts a look at difficult transition facing newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. Her first case will involve a test of the court's previous rulings on campaign finance issues—a little awkward for someone who just joined the team. The paper writes that joining the court is a learning experience for every new member, so scrutinizing Sotomayor's early actions on the bench probably isn't terribly useful, especially since many justices' ideological positions shift in the years following their appointment.

All over the country, members of Congress are back in their districts for the August recess, taking the pulse of their constituents on a range of issues, most notably health care reform. And wherever there's a congressman holding a town hall meeting on health care, there's someone shouting over the top of the member's comments, according to the NYT. While these might seem like spontaneous displays of voter passion, however, they're actually planned demonstrations by conservative lobbying groups, including the organization responsible for last spring's "tea parties." Meanwhile, an LAT column does a fine job of sorting out the nonsense from the facts on the health care debate.

As part of a continuing effort to get farmers in Afghanistan to stop planting poppies, the U.S. and British governments are about to launch a multimillion-dollar program aimed at encouraging other kinds of crops, according to the WP. The idea is to ease the nation's farmers off drug farming, thereby denying corrupt politicians and the Taliban of vital funding. Of course, the paper admits that the U.S. government has tried this sort of thing before in other countries and met with decidedly mixed results.

The number of unprovoked attacks against homeless people is on the rise, reports the NYT. Experts point out that 58 percent of these attacks are perpetrated by teenagers.

In the NYT's business section, Joe Nocera takes a look at the staggering challenges facing the U.S. Postal Service.

Celebrity chef Gordon Ramsay made a name for himself helping struggling restaurants turn themselves around. Now the WSJ says he's got to fight to keep his own eateries open in the face of a difficult recession.

Really, really hate flip-flops? The WP notes the peculiar brand of rage that the seemingly innocuous footwear instigates in some people.

news20090808sac

[Environment] from [scientificamerican.com]

[Wildlife]
August 8, 2009
Avian Silence: Without Birds to Disperse Seeds, Guam's Forest Is Changing
The brown tree snake invasion has wiped out birds on Guam and left a forest to survive on its own
By Brendan Borrell

The forest on Guam is silent.

Sometime after World War II the brown tree snake arrived as a stowaway on this U.S. Pacific island territory 6,100 kilometers west of Hawaii. It has since extirpated 10 of the island's 12 native forest bird species. The remaining forest birds have been relegated to small populations on military bases, where the snakes are kept in check. In the first study of its kind, a rugby-playing researcher named Haldre Rogers is documenting how the forest itself is changing.

"There's nothing in the forest on Guam," Rogers says, "and when you hear anything you have to stop and say, 'What was that?'"

Rogers is a doctoral student at the University of Washington in Seattle who once had a cell phone with the number 777-HISS during the three years she worked for the U.S. Geological Survey's brown tree snake rapid response team. From 2002 to 2005, she estimates she nabbed about 100 snakes out of a population estimated in the hundreds of thousands.

These days, between tournaments in Hong Kong and Thailand with the Guam national rugby team, she has been busy collecting data on the movements of seeds and their ability to survive and grow in the forest. "People knew that the birds had disappeared, but nobody had taken the next step to see what impact that had," she explains, "which is why it seemed like enticing research."

Of the approximately 40 species of trees on Guam, about 60 to 70 percent once depended on birds to eat their fruits and disperse their seeds. The birds may have just nicked and dropped seeds somewhere along a flight path, or they could have swallowed the seeds, digested their tough coats, and pooped them out with a splatter of high-nitrogen urea.

Rogers went to neighboring islands that still have birds along with many of the same trees, collected seeds from the tree Premna obtusifolia, and brought them back to grow in a greenhouse on Guam. She found that seeds handled by birds are twice as likely to germinate as seeds that simply land on the forest floor. They also germinate about 10 days more quickly, giving them a better shot at evading seed-destroying rodents or fungi.

In another experiment, Rogers has found that seeds on Guam now always land directly in the shade of the mother tree and always have an intact seed coat. But seeds from neighboring islands that still have birds can sometimes end up 10 to 20 meters away from the mother tree, where they are more likely to find a sunny niche with fewer enemies. About 80 percent of these have had their seed coat removed, meaning they can germinate more quickly. Rogers presented this research at the Ecological Society of America meeting in Albuquerque this week. "It's inevitable that there will be changes in the composition of the forest and in the spatial patterns of where trees are located," she says.

These results, which are just the beginning of a larger study funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, have wider implications for the dispersal of seeds and botanical life. Some 25 percent of U.S. birds are facing extinction, and many common U.S. bird species have declined by 50 to 80 percent since 1967. On islands, the situation is particularly dire, with 28 to 56 percent of species expected to be extinct by 2100, many due to introduced species. Hawaiians are dreading the day when the brown tree snake inevitably establishes itself there, despite careful monitoring of airports and shipping facilities.

Rogers is now looking for similar trends in a dozen other tree species on Pacific islands, and investigating how the absence of birds has affected populations of agricultural pests and spiders, which are 40 times more abundant on Guam than on neighboring islands. She says it is still too early to know if the brown tree snakes are just altering the distribution of trees in the forest, or if they could lead to a collapse of the island's entire ecosystem.

"The brown tree snake is held up as textbook example of how a destructive invasive species can eradicate birds," she says. "This shows that the effects of introduced predators reverberate through the ecosystem."

news20090808ntc

[naturenews] from [nature.com]

[naturenews]
Published online 7 August 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.810
News
Geoengineering schemes under scrutiny
Researchers divided over the wisdom of climate manipulation.
Alexandra Witze

Geoengineering — the deliberate manipulation of climate to counteract global warming — might not be taking off just yet, but the push to fund more research into it is increasing.

This week, Novim, a think tank based in Santa Barbara, California, released a report that investigated the feasibility of one of the wilder-sounding geoengineering schemes: pumping tiny particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and trigger global cooling.

"It's the most serious technical report to date," says David Keith of the University of Calgary in Alberta, Canada, who has been researching geoengineering for two decades. Keith was an author on the report, which was led by Steve Koonin, now chief scientist for the US Department of Energy, and Jason Blackstock of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria.

{“It's the most serious technical report to date.”
David Keith}

Among other things, it concludes that spraying sulphate aerosols — to mimic the cooling effects of a major volcanic eruption — is technically feasible. But the political and ethical challenges facing such a worldwide intervention remain virtually unknown, as do its unintentional side effects.

Those potential side effects could include irrevocably altering precipitation patterns, argue Gabriele Hegerl, of the Grant Institute in Edinburgh, UK, and Susan Solomon, of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colorado, in a paper published online on 6 August in Science1.

They cite the instance of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo on Luzon island in the Philippines, which injected sulphur particles high into the stratosphere, causing global precipitation and river flow to drop dramatically. "Geoengineering schemes optimized to cancel greenhouse warming will lead to a less intense global hydrological cycle and major regional changes," agrees Philip Duffy, a researcher at Climate Central in Palo Alto, California.

Outlandish schemes

Duffy and Keith both spoke in Albuquerque, New Mexico, at the annual conference of the Ecological Society of America. They participated in a symposium on 6 August that aimed to make ecologists more aware of the field, which, until now, has mainly been dominated by experts in climate, the atmosphere or the ocean.

Geoengineering schemes are often notable for their sheer outlandishness. The sulphate scheme studied in the Novim report would require giant hoses or cannons to constantly blast particles into the air. Other plans call for installing tens of thousands of reflective sunshades in orbit to block incoming sunlight, or for seeding vast swathes of the ocean with iron in an effort to trigger plankton blooms that would suck down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Keith notes that both the public and researchers often confuse the two main approaches to geoengineering: solar radiation management, which aims to block incoming light using techniques such as aerosols or sunshades, and carbon cycle engineering, which uses techniques such as ocean fertilization. Solar management is relatively cheap and fast, but comes with unknown effects on the climate system; engineering of the carbon cycle is slow and expensive "but gets the carbon out", he says.

Humble beginnings?
Keith and the other authors of the Novim report argue that research should begin into the effects of small-scale geoengineering experiments. "You don't have to do it on a large scale," he says. The report recommends, for instance, preliminary work on determining the best way to deliver and disperse sulphur aerosols, and on wind-field and other modelling to work out how the particles might spread throughout the stratosphere. It also lays out what sort of field tests might be needed to validate this work, including "a non-trivial stratospheric aerosol loading to be maintained for several years".

It does not put numbers on the cost of such research, nor does it identify which country should take the lead on it. It calls for "international processes" to be put in place to develop guidelines for coordinating potential responses from various countries.

In another report issued today, the Copenhagen Consensus Center — a Denmark-based group founded by Bjørn Lomborg, author of the book The Skeptical Environmentalist — tackles the potential costs of several geoengineering schemes. It argues for spending US$750 million every year for the next decade on geoengineering research, particularly on solar radiation management and the study of its side effects.

Meanwhile, the UK Royal Society is expected to release a detailed report on geoengineering options in September, the first major scientific academy to do so.

References
1. Hegerl, G. C. and Solomon, S. Science advance online publication doi:10.1126/science.1178530 (2009).