news/notes20090430a

[Gauging the spread: WHO viral infection phases]
（新型インフルエンザに対するＷＨＯ警戒レベル、フェーズ1から６）

Phase 1: No animal viruses circulating are causing infections in humans.

Phase 2: An animal flu virus is known to have caused human infection and is considered a potential pandemic threat.

Phase 3: Limited human-to-human transmission may occur. This does not indicate the virus has gained transmissibility that would cause a pandemic.

Phase 4: Human-to-human transmission able to cause "community-level outbreaks". Significant increase in pandemic risk but it is not a foregone conclusion.

Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. A strong signal that pandemic is imminent.

Phase 6: Pandemic phase, characterised by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region along with phase 5.


7 Ways to Protect Yourself
（自衛防護策の７カ条）

"[Prevention is] no different than any other pandemic flu, and those are kind of simple things -- wash your hands a lot, don't shake hands or hug or kiss people if you're sick, don't go to work, self-qurantine yourself," said Peter Katona, an associate professor at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Medical Center.

1. Wash hands frequently: This will lessen the chance of carrying or transmitting any viruses that normally get stuck on the hands in day-to-day activities. Try to avoid rubbing eyes or touching nose with dirty hands. Wash hands often with soap and water, especially after coughing or sneezing. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective.

2. Try to avoid people who are coughing and sneezing: The CDC advises people to cover their nose and mouth with a tissue when they cough or sneeze and throw the tissue in the trash after using it. Try to teach your kids to do the same. Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.

3. If experiencing flu-like symptoms, don't go out -- stay at home. Call a healthcare provider, particularly if a person has been to Mexico, southern California and southern Texas. The CDC recommends that people who get sick stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

4. Taking a trip to Mexico? Rethink your plans. Schaffner said that unless you have a compelling reason to go, you might want to reconsider. Many airlines, including Continental, US Airways and American Airlines, are waiving cancellation fees on tickets to Mexico.

5. Stay informed and plan ahead: Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said it's important to stay informed about what's going on in one's community, and whether the authorities -- such as the state or county health departments -- have issued any recommendations. It's a good idea to plan for what to do if children's school is closed.

6. Keep sick kids out of school, and stay home from work if you are sick. Aside from providing needed rest, such absences protect others from catching whatever you or your kid has. Keep at least a few feet's distance if you have the flu or are interacting with someone who has the flu. The communicable distance for most flu viruses is about three feet, so keep clear of this radius in order to avoid spread. If dealing with a flu case at home, make sure the flu sufferer (and even those who interact with this person) wear facial masks to lower the chances of spread.

7. Avoid surfaces and objects that may be handled by many people. For kids, this may include doctor's office toys, surfaces that a lot of other kids are touching. Keep all surfaces and objects around the house clean. This becomes especially relevant if there is someone in that house who is sick or has the flu already. Try to teach kids not to touch their faces. This is like mass transit for germs: straight from the hands to the eyes, nose and mouth.


[Biography of the Day] from [Britannica]


Édouard Manet
（フランスの画家 エドゥアール マネ）

French painter Édouard Manet, who died this day in 1883, broke with the historical tradition of illusionism and paved the way for Impressionism with such works as Déjeuner sur l'herbe (1863; “Luncheon on the Grass”).


[On This Day] from [Britannica]

1789: George Washington inaugurated
（1789: ジョージ ワシントン初代大統領に就任）

George Washington, the first president of the United States, was inaugurated this day in 1789 in Federal Hall in New York City, addressing his constituency on “the proceedings of a new and free government.”

news/notes20090430b

[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]

Thursday, April 30, 2009
Cabinet approval rating up 6 points as Ozawa slides
（内閣支持率６％上昇、小沢批判による）

(Kyodo News) The approval rating for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso rose 5.9 percentage points from late March to 29.6 percent, a Kyodo News survey showed Wednesday.

The disapproval rating came to 56.2 percent, down 7.3 points from the March survey, according to the nationwide telephone survey conducted Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest poll also showed that 65.5 percent of the 1,014 randomly selected respondents want Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa to step down over the indictment of his top secretary in connection with alleged illegal funds from general contractor Nishimatsu Construction Co., compared with 66.6 percent in the previous survey.

The results suggest approval of the Aso Cabinet rose thanks to persistent criticism of Ozawa, even as the disapproval rate for the administration remains high.

Asked who they would rather have as prime minister, 39.8 percent said Aso, up 6.7 points from the March poll and 13.7 points higher than the percentage preferring Ozawa.

Asked about the proportional representation system in the next election for the House of Representatives, 30.8 percent of the respondents said they will vote for Aso's Liberal Democratic Party, while 37.9 percent said they favor the DPJ, which maintained its lead over the LDP in the category.

A Lower House poll must be held by the fall.

The LDP and DPJ, however, are still neck and neck in the latest survey, with 29.4 percent of the respondents supporting the LDP and 29.7 percent backing the DPJ.

The LDP grabbed the top position in the previous poll in late March after being overtaken by the DPJ in a survey in early March, but the positions were reversed again in the latest poll.

The nationwide poll also suggests that a majority do not have faith in a 14.7 trillion extra budget for fiscal 2009 to finance fresh government stimulus measures, with 55.0 percent saying little will come of it, against 38.6 percent who gave high marks to the budget.


[NATIONAL NEWS]

Thursday, April 30, 2009
Aso-Wen talks flu-, Yasukuni-focused
（日中首脳、新型インフルエンザ対策で協力、靖国にも言及）

BEIJING (Kyodo) Tokyo hopes to cooperate with Beijing to prevent the swine flu epidemic from spreading further and also wants to help the world overcome the economic crisis, Prime Minister Taro Aso told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Wednesday, according to China's state-run media.

"Japan wants to work together with China to prevent the swine flu epidemic from spreading further," China Central Television reported.

The recent deadly swine-avian-human flu virus has emerged as a topic for the countries' leaders, after more than 150 people have died in Mexico from the malady, which has spread to other areas, reportedly killing an infant in Texas as well.

The World Health Organization raised its alert level Monday to Phase 4, which means human-to-human transmission of the virus can cause community-level outbreaks.

Aso also said Japan and China should "strengthen coordination" to contribute to a global economic recovery, according to the CCTV report.

Wen, for his part, reminded Japan about the sensitivity of issues related to history at their talks in Beijing. Last week Aso drew China's ire by sending an offering to Tokyo's war-related Yasukuni Shrine.

Thorny bilateral issues, including Aso's offering to Yasukuni Shrine, raised tensions between the two countries somewhat before his arrival in Beijing.

The shrine, which honors Japan's war dead, as well as Class-A war criminals, is seen by Tokyo's neighbors as a symbol of Japan's militarist past. It has been a source of discord in relations between Tokyo and Beijing.

Wen told Aso that the history issue is "very sensitive" and expressed hope that Japan will "adhere to agreements and appropriately deal" with the matter, according to CCTV.

Aso replied that Japan's position has not changed from the view expressed in a landmark 1995 statement by then Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, who apologized and expressed remorse for Japan's wartime conquest, atrocities and colonial occupation.

"Bilateral relations have improved and developed through both sides' joint efforts," Wen said.


[NATIONAL NEWS]

Thursday, April 30, 2009
Inspectors board, clear Mexico jet
（機内検疫、メキシコ機に実施）
Japanese residents coming home; all on direct flight avoid quarantine, despite slight hiccup

(Kyodo News) Japanese quarantine inspectors Wednesday boarded the first direct flight from Mexico since the alert for a global influenza pandemic was raised to an unprecedented level.

Narita airport quarantine officials said no passengers or crew members apparently contracted swine flu.

Seven inspectors wearing protective clothing and masks walked through the arrival gate and onto an Aeromexico flight that arrived at 6:30 a.m. with 185 passengers and 13 crew members aboard.

A Japanese man who complained of throat pain was briefly isolated until a simple test administered on the scene returned a negative result.

Passengers said about 20 people seated near the man protested when an inspector informed them they would likely have to remain on board for six hours if the result was positive. Eventually, all the passengers and crew deplaned the Boeing 777 about an hour after arrival.

Among the passengers were Japanese families living in Mexico, as well as a Japanese professional boxer who regularly fights in the country. A 38-year-old housewife whose husband is still in Mexico said she flew back to Japan with her two daughters.

"Our children's Japanese school was closed. As the alert level was raised, we decided to return to Japan," she said.

Another passenger, Keiko Yanagisawa, 35, a diving instructor in Mexico, said she was surprised at the strict inspection upon arrival.

"I heard that we would be checked after arrival, but I didn't think the inspection could be this strict," she said.

The boxer, Tomoki Kameda, estimated that about one in 10 people were wearing masks in Mexico City shortly before he cut short his training and fight schedule to leave the country.

"I was wearing a mask myself because I was worried (about the flu). My family got worried, too, so I returned to Japan ahead of schedule," said the 17-year-old Kameda, the youngest of the popular Kameda boxing brothers.

Officers from the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry began in-flight quarantine inspections Tuesday at Narita and Kansai airports after the World Health Organization raised the alert level to Phase 4 Monday, amid reports that the swine-avian-human flu epidemic was spreading on a global scale.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmissions of the virus and can cause community-level outbreaks. It is two levels shy of the highest, Phase 6, which is issued for a full-blown global pandemic.

Cuba and Argentina have reportedly suspended direct flights from Mexico because of the flu outbreak.

Meanwhile, health minister Yoichi Masuzoe renewed the call for calm in response to threat of the disease.

"I advise you to wash your hands and gargle when you get home, and you should go to hospitals or clinics or consult with public health centers if you have the smallest of worries about the flu," Masuzoe said in a speech at a trade union rally in Tokyo. "You're required to behave calmly."

Away from the airports, many enjoyed the first day of the Golden Week holiday.

At Tokyo Disneyland, a 60-year-old man accompanied by his grandchildren said he is not worried as nobody in Japan has been confirmed or suspected of having the flu.

Movie theaters in Tokyo were also packed.

"I feel like the pandemic is happening somewhere far away from Tokyo," said a 37-year-old female office worker who came to a movie theater in Hibiya.

In Mexico, where the influenza originated, 2,498 people have been confirmed infected or are suspected of being so. At least 159 of them have died. Outbreaks of the new flu in humans have also been confirmed in the United States, New Zealand, Canada, Britain, Spain and Israel, while suspected cases have been reported in more than 10 countries, including in Europe, Asia and Latin America.

N.Z. fears tourist fall

WELLINGTON (Kyodo) New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, during talks Wednesday with visiting Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone, voiced concern over a possible drop in Japanese tourists to the country due to the outbreak of swine flu, Japanese officials said.

Key, who also doubles as tourism minister, said the New Zealand government has taken steps to prevent swine flu from spreading at an early stage and called for efforts by Tokyo to avoid a decline in Japanese travelers to the country, the officials said.

More than 10 people in New Zealand have been confirmed as being infected with the new flu that broke out in Mexico.

Nakasone also met with New Zealand counterpart Murray McCully and agreed to cooperate on information exchanges regarding antiflu measures, the officials said.

news/notes20090430c

[Today's News] from [The Guardian]

Many more UK swine flu cases likely, warns chief medical officer
Sir Liam Donaldson says he is 'concerned but not alarmed' after WHO raises swine flu threat level

Severin Carrell, Haroon Siddique and agencies
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 30 April 2009 10.51 BST
Article history

The chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said today he was "concerned but not alarmed" after the World Health Organisation raised its swine flu global epidemic threat level to phase five, the second highest.

He said the UK would see "many more cases" of swine flu but most people would make a good recovery.

"To put things in proportion, in any flu – even the seasonal flu – there are some deaths, often of elderly people and the very frail," he told BBC Breakfast. "What we will see is many more cases, but on the whole most people make a good recovery from flu."

He said it was impossible to say what the death rate would be until more was known about the virus. "I'm concerned, but I'm not alarmed. We have a very strong plan in place," he said.

The WHO alert upgrade came after three new British cases of swine flu were confirmed yesterday and the Department of Health stepped up its emergency response with plans to purchase additional stocks of antiviral drugs and face masks.

All three Britons – a 12-year-old girl from Paignton, Devon; a 41-year-old woman from Redditch, Worcestershire; and a 22-year-old man from north-west London – had recently returned from Mexico. The child was on the same flight into Birmingham as the Scottish honeymoon couple who tested positive earlier this week. Her school, Paignton community college, has been closed for a week. All 267 pupils in her school year and all teachers who might have come into contact with her have been given the antiviral drug Tamiflu, the college principal, Jane English, told a press conference today. English said the girl attended school on Wednesday to Friday last week after returning from holiday but had not been in since.

Dr Sarah Harrison, a public health consultant for Torbay Care Trust, said of the afflicted pupil: "She is suffering from flu, so she's not feeling very well, but she's improving." She said 340 courses of Tamiflu had been given out in Devon and dozens of people were being monitored for the virus in the area.

It emerged today that a second couple from Scotland who feared they had contracted swine flu on their honeymoon in Mexico have been given the all clear.

Pete and Jenny Marshall had been on holiday in the same resort, Cancún, as the first Britons to contract the virus, Iain and Dawn Askham from Polmont near Edinburgh, and also reported flu-like symptoms and other illnesses.

They were among 14 new suspected cases revealed on Monday, and ordered to stay indoors at their home in the Gorgie area of Edinburgh, with their close friend Gemma O'Brien, who had been staying with them.

The couple were among 15 Scots yesterday given the all-clear, after their tests came back negative or their cases were "declassified". In response to questions in the Scottish parliament, the Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, said there were 27 suspected cases in Scotland. A further 41 people – including 10 with close contacts to the Askhams – have so far been cleared of infection after showing symptoms.

news/notes20090430d

[Today's Paper] from [Los Angeles Times]

South Korea's wartime sex slaves: Hoping for closure at the end of their lives
The 'comfort women' forced into slavery by Japanese soldiers have struggled for years to persuade the world to acknowledge their ordeal. They're growing tired now, but not giving up.

By John M. Glionna
April 30, 2009

Reporting from Toechon, South Korea -- Kang Il-chul rides in the back of a van packed with gossiping old women. The 82-year-old girlishly covers her mouth to whisper a secret.

"We argue a lot about the food," she says, wrinkling her nose. "To tell you the truth, some of these old ladies are grouchy."

There are eight of them, sharing a hillside home on the outskirts of Seoul, sparring over everything from territory to room temperature.

Some wear makeup and stylish hats; others are happy in robes and slippers. A few are bitter, their golden years tarnished by painful memories; others have sweet dispositions and enjoy visiting beauty salons or performing an occasional dance in the living room.

But they all share one thing: Decades ago, they were forced to serve as sex slaves for Japanese soldiers occupying the country before and during World War II. They were repeatedly raped and beaten over months and years.

Now time is running out for the halmoni, or Korean grandmothers. About 150,000 to 200,000 Korean women served as Japanese sex slaves, most living out their lives in humiliated silence.

When activists brought the issue to light in the early 1990s, officials sought out survivors. While many were too ashamed to come forward, officials registered 234 women.

Ninety-three are still alive, according to a nonprofit group that looks after them.

In 1992, some of the so-called comfort women volunteered to live at a new House of Sharing established by Buddhist organizations and philanthropists. There is a full-time chef and nurse and volunteer caregivers. There are regular art classes, exercise sessions and trips to the doctor. Kang is the youngest of the eight remaining residents. The oldest is 92.

They are part Golden Girls, part adamant activists.

Holding out hope for closure before they die, they are waging a battle to persuade the world to acknowledge their ordeal. They are seeking reparations and a formal apology from the Japanese government. They have also pressured the South Korean government to speak out.

Japan's response has been mixed. After the war, the government maintained that military brothels had been run by private contractors. But in 1993, it officially acknowledged the Imperial Army's role in establishing so-called comfort stations.

Conservatives in the political establishment still insist there is no documentary evidence that the army conducted an organized campaign of sexual slavery -- a contention challenged by many researchers.

The testimony of the women of the House of Sharing is the riposte to those who say there is no evidence that Korean women were forced to sexually service Japanese troops. They gather every Wednesday outside the Japanese Embassy in Seoul or at various South Korean government offices. They unfurl their banners and mostly stand in silence, unflinching as guards snap their pictures. Over 17 years, they have picketed 861 times. Some have traveled to Washington to testify before Congress.

They are host to 30,000 visitors a year at the House of Sharing, part of a complex that includes the Historical Museum of Japanese Military Sexual Slavery.

They have been poked and prodded like laboratory specimens, their daily lives chronicled by sociologists, their rudimentary artwork studied to gauge the long-term emotional effects of trauma.

Now, many are tired, their years as rabble-rousers behind them. There's a changing of the guard. With a gruff, drill sergeant's demeanor, Kim Kun-ja calls herself a "troublemaker." For years, she was among the loudest activists. The others call her No. 1.

Today the 84-year-old uses a walker. She fell twice recently and rarely gets out of bed.

"We are all mentally ill and physically damaged," she says, eating a bowl of soup. "But I don't want to talk about it anymore. It brings up bad memories from the bottom of my insides."

In her place has emerged the indefatigable Kang. As a teenager, she recalls, she was lured from her home by Japanese soldiers who offered her caramel candy.

On this day, Kang receives a group of 20 mothers who sit in a semicircle on the dormitory floor. Perched on the edge of a couch, dressed in a silk shirt with a scarf wrapped stylishly around her neck, she waves her hands like a veteran politician trying to stir up a crowd.

With age, she has become more defiant, she says, and she is looking for justice.

"We have to resolve this problem before we die," she says. "We have to go away if God calls us, but until this is solved, I can't close my eyes happily."

Kang calls over to Kim, asking her to address the group.

Kim waves her off. "I am deaf," she says.


Nearby, resident Kim Soon-ok, 88, maternally strokes the hair of a visitor half her age who sits before her on the floor.

Some residents, never married, have no grandchildren to visit them. They welcome contact with strangers. They hold hands with visitors and seek long hugs as a grandfather clock in the corner ticks away their remaining days.

One carries a small stuffed rabbit. She says she likes animals more than humans.

Sometimes there is tension at the House of Sharing. Caretakers have placed each resident's photo on her bedroom door and place setting to avoid confusion and tiffs among the women, who can be territorial and cross.

"Open the window, I'm hot," one demands.

"Well, I'm cold," says the one next to her.

Often, the women have complaints. Meals served by the full-time chef are "tasteless," say several as they sit at the dining room table, talking like prisoners plotting a breakout.

Moved to temporary quarters during a renovation of the main dormitory, many complain that they no longer have keys to their rooms.

Kang, the group leader, suddenly pauses. "Shhhhh, someone is coming," she says as a nurse enters the room.

She sighs, saying that although life at the House of Sharing may not be perfect, "we have nowhere else to go."

During a tour of her room, Kang says she cannot tell the others about gifts she has been given by visitors. She holds up an exercise gripper. "If they knew this was given to me, there would be trouble," she says. She shows another gift, a silk scarf. "Isn't this pretty?"

Although many women no longer discuss their past, others seem to derive some relief from retelling their tortures.

Without prompting, Park Ok-ryun, 86, launches into an account of how, as an 18-year-old, she was abducted by two Japanese soldiers. She and a friend had gone to a stream to get water.

"Don't cry," she remembers the soldiers saying. "If you go with us, you can get some nice food and nice clothes."

Park grabs a listener's arm. "I was thrown into the truck and covered with a red-and-blue fabric," she says. She begged to be released, explaining that she had to return home to make dinner.

"But they said, 'Jackass, stop nagging,' and kicked me," she says, showing a jagged scar on her leg.

The women know that some people are listening. The U.S. Congress has called on Japan to apologize and "accept historical responsibility" for the sex slavery.

The Japanese government offered to start a fund, but the women refused the money, demanding that the government also accept responsibility for their suffering.

In a moment of quiet, Kang says that while they can never forget what happened, they must forgive the Japanese, if only for the emotional health of the next generation.

Then Kim, old No. 1, flashes a rare display of humor.

"Not all men are bad," she says, smiling. "There are good ones and there are bad ones."

news/notes20090430e

[Today's Paper] from [The New York Times]

World Health Organization Raises Swine Flu Alert Level

By DENISE GRADY
Published: April 29, 2009

The global spread of swine flu, a pandemic, is highly likely, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday and raised its alert level to Phase 5, the next-to-highest level in the worldwide warning system.

Phase 5 had never been declared since the warning system was introduced in 2005 in response to the avian influenza crisis. Phase 6 means a pandemic is under way.

The health organization said its decision was based on the continuing spread of swine flu in the United States and Mexico, particularly the increasing numbers of unexplained cases among people not exposed to travelers or to institutions like schools or hospitals where many people have close contact with one another and high rates of transmission might be expected.

“All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans,” Dr. Margaret Chan, director general of the organization, said at a news conference in Geneva. “Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.”

The first death from swine flu in this country — of a 23-month-old child from Mexico who was being treated in Houston — was reported on Wednesday, along with more infections and hospitalizations.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 91 confirmed cases from 10 states, up from 64 cases in 5 states on Tuesday.

Dr. Chan emphasized the need for calm, but at times spoke as if a pandemic had already begun, saying, for instance, “W.H.O. will be tracking the pandemic.” She also emphasized that developing countries tended to have more severe flu epidemics than rich ones, and said her organization and others would need to make special efforts to help poorer nations.

She called for global solidarity, saying, “After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic.”

President Obama, terming the outbreak “cause for deep concern but not panic,” took the unusual step of using a prime-time televised news conference, convened to mark his 100th day in office, to deliver a public health message to the American people.

“Wash your hands when you shake hands, cover your mouth when you cough,” he said from the East Room of the White House. “It sounds trivial, but it makes a huge difference. If you are sick, stay home. If your child is sick, take them out of school. If you are feeling certain flu symptoms, don’t get on an airplane.”

With public health officials recommending that schools close if there are more confirmed or suspected cases, Mr. Obama urged parents and businesses to “think about contingency plans” in case of such closings.

He said he was calling on Congress to authorize an immediate $1.5 billion to “support our ability to monitor and track this virus” and to build the supply of antiviral drugs.

“The more recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S.,” the C.D.C. said on its Web site. More hospitalizations and deaths are expected, the site said, because the virus is new and most people have no immunity to it.

Dr. Chan said that government preparedness plans could include steps like ensuring that laboratories can test for the disease and that health systems can identify and treat cases, track an outbreak and prevent the virus from spreading in hospitals and clinics. She said governments should also decide on measures like closing schools and discouraging or banning public gatherings.

Mexico, for instance, has prohibited people from eating in restaurants and ordered most stores and other businesses to close for several days starting Friday, a move apparently intended to keep people at home during what is traditionally a long holiday weekend.

At a news conference in Mexico City on Wednesday night, Mexico’s secretary of health, José Ángel Córdova, also announced that the national government would close all but essential offices during the same time period. The government did not suspend mass transportation or close airports and asked that supermarkets and pharmacies remain open.

In the United States, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the outbreak had caused such concern because officials had never seen this particular strain of the flu passing among humans.

“There is no background immunity in the population, and it is spreading from human to human — all of which has the potential for a pandemic,” Dr. Fauci said.

Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that officials had no way of predicting whether the outbreak would become more serious.

“You don’t know if this is a virus that will fizzle in a couple of weeks or one that will become more or less virulent or severe in the diseases it causes,” Dr. Besser said.

He said officials must follow government plans for a pandemic because of that unpredictability.

“If we could see into the future, it would be wonderful so that we could tailor all our responses specifically to what is occurring,” Dr. Besser said.

The disease centers’ count of 91 confirmed cases in the United States did not include some later reports by states that confirmed cases after the C.D.C. tally was posted. In addition, there were suspected cases in Louisiana and Delaware. Kits being provided to the states and other countries will allow them to test for the virus on their own and obtain results within a few hours.

New York City added 5 new confirmed cases, bringing its total to 49. All have links to Mexico or St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, where the virus first surfaced in New York, health officials said. The city identified five more probable cases.

The total in Canada rose to 19, from 16. In Mexico, the number of confirmed cases of the flu rose to 99 from 49, and the number of deaths from confirmed cases of the flu was increased to 8. The number of suspected cases is much higher.

Kathleen Sebelius focused on the outbreak on Wednesday during her first news conference as the Obama administration’s secretary of health and human services. “We’re determined to fight this outbreak and do everything we can to protect the health of every American,” Ms. Sebelius said.

She noted that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had recommended that schools close only if a student is found to be infected. More aggressive steps are under discussion, Ms. Sebelius said, but officials realize that closings can cause problems for families.

“What happens to parents? Where do children go?” she asked.

Dr. Besser, who joined the news conference via a video feed, said the most recent cases included patients of a broad range of ages, with two-thirds of all cases occurring in people under 18.

“There have been five hospitalizations so far, including the child who died. But we have a number of suspect cases that have been hospitalized and we expect that number to go up,” he said. Dr. Besser said that a quarter of the nation’s stockpile of 50 million treatments of antiviral medicines would be distributed to states by Sunday.

The United States has no plans to close international borders because, Dr. Besser said, such closings are not effective in slowing pandemics. When Hong Kong was hit with severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, “increased border screening on entry and exit was not an effective way of identifying cases or preventing transmission,” he said.

Nonetheless, Customs and Border Protection agents have stepped up efforts to spot sick travelers.

Some elected officials have begun to question the decision to leave the borders open. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was grilled by senators on Wednesday who asked whether her agency was doing enough to stop the virus from spreading from Mexico. The senators, including John McCain of Arizona and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, asked several times why the administration had decided against closing the border and banning travel to Mexico.

news/notes20090430f

[Today's Newspaper] fom [The Washington Post]

Fort Worth Shutters All Schools; WHO Warns of Likely Pandemic
6 Possible Cases Investigated in Md. as Global Alert Is Raised

By Rob Stein and Debbi Wilgoren
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, April 30, 2009; 8:29 AM

The city of Fort Worth is shutting down its school system for 10 days in an effort to stop the spread of swine flu, officials said last night, even as top U.S. leaders warned parents not to take children from closed schools to daycare, and global health authorities raised the alert level for the outbreak to one notch below a full-scale pandemic.

Appearing on television news shows this morning, Vice President Biden said he hoped employers "will be generous" in allowing parents to take time off to keep their children home if there has been a confirmed case of flu in their school, since sending them to a daycare center with lots of other children, or bringing them to the workplace, would offer the same potential for the virus to spread.

Biden also seemed to recommend against using mass transit, answering a question about whether he would advise his own family against flying to Mexico, the disease's epicenter, by saying: "I would tell members of my family -- and I have -- that I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. It's not just going into Mexico. If you're any place in a confined aircraft and one person sneezes, it goes all the way through the aircraft."

President Obama, in a nationally televised news conference last night, took a more cautious approach, saying people should avoid mass transit, schools, workplaces and other confined spaces if they are experiencing flu-like symptoms.

Both Obama and Biden continued to rule out closing the U.S.-Mexico border, saying it was an overly drastic step that would not be effective in stopping the spread of a virus that clearly has already crossed the border. They emphasized that hand-washing and other basic precautions remain the best ways to fight the disease.

The 27-nation European Union today will consider a request from the government of France, where 30 possible cases of the virus are under investigation, to suspend all flights from member countries to Mexico. New cases of the virus were reported in Switzerland and Peru overnight, bringing the number of countries with known cases of the flu to nine.

The Geneva-based World Health Organization agency raised the alert level for the second time in three days, elevating it to one notch below a full-scale pandemic, after concluding that the virus was causing sustained outbreaks in the United States and Mexico.

The heightened alert -- issued to convey the message that the world is probably on the verge of a pandemic -- is intended to prompt every nation to activate an emergency response plan, to spur pharmaceutical companies to increase production of antiviral drugs and help speed development of a vaccine, and to prod bankers to help poor countries afford measures to fight the virus, officials said.

In the Washington area, officials in Maryland announced yesterday that they were investigating six probable cases of the disease -- three each in Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties -- and as at least 10 more were under investigation at the University of Delaware.

The first death from the disease in the United States came when a 22-month-old boy from Mexico City succumbed Monday at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston. The child, who had unspecified "underlying health problems," according to U.S. health officials, had taken a flight with his parents from Mexico City to Matamoros, Mexico, on April 4 to visit family in Brownsville, Tex.

After developing a fever April 8, the child was hospitalized in Brownsville and then, with his condition worsening, was transferred the next day to Houston.

State health officials were trying to determine when and where the boy became infected and how many people came into contact with him and his family, but they said no other relatives or anyone else had fallen ill.

"Texans need to know there is no cause for panic, and Texans can be assured that the state will take every necessary precaution to protect the lives of our citizens," said Gov. Rick Perry (R), as he issued a "disaster declaration" in response to the outbreak.

Officials suspended high school sports events statewide until May 11 and shut hundred of schools, sending tens of thousands of students home for at least two weeks. In Fort Worth, officials said they would close the entire 80,000-student district after confirmation of one case of swine flu at one campus the announcement that there are probable cases at three other schools.

Fort Worth officials urged parents not to send their children to day care or "any venue where groups of children may gather" and pleaded with the employers and the general population to make it possible for parents to accommodate this request.

"This is indeed an example of how the community can rally to support the health and well-being of students, their families and the District," schools superintendent Melody Johnson told reporters.

U.S. public health authorities have been worried that the virus would start producing the severe pneumonia and deaths that so far have been limited to Mexico, where the epidemic began. "The clinical picture in the United States is looking a bit more like the Mexican situation," said Nancy Cox, a flu expert at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The number of known cases in the United States hit at least 91, with infections confirmed in at least six new states -- Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Arizona, Indiana and Nevada -- more than doubling the number of states with confirmed cases. A Marine stationed in California also has a suspected case of swine flu.

The WHO's action came after the agency convened an unusual "global virtual science meeting" involving several hundred experts and officials to help assess the situation. The agency raised the alert from "phase 4" to "phase 5" two days after elevating it for the first time because the never-before-seen virus was spreading in Mexico.

Saying influenza viruses are "notorious for their rapid mutation and their unpredictable behavior," WHO Director General Margaret Chan told reporters: "This is an opportunity for global solidarity as we look for responses and solutions that benefit all countries, all of humanity. After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic."

The new alert level could prompt a variety of measures, including more intensive efforts to identify cases and stricter measures to prevent the illness's spread, such as discouraging or banning public gatherings.

With the virus now clearly being transmitted person-to-person in the United States, WHO officials said the outbreak appeared to be on a trajectory toward the highest alert level -- "phase 6" -- which is marked by sustained transmission in at least two regions of the world. That would mark the beginning of a pandemic -- a global spread of the virus.

"It's clear the virus is spreading, and we don't see any evidence of this slowing down at this point," said Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's interim assistant director general for health security and environment.

While there is a chance that the epidemic could stop on its own, officials said that such an outcome is impossible to predict and that governments around the world should plan for the worst.

"There may be a possibility that the virus will die out and stop, and that would be the best for us. But it can turn the other way. So the important point for us is to continue to maintain our vigilance and track its movement," Chan said. "Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world."

Asked whether the higher alert level will change the U.S. government's posture, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said: "We have been preparing all along as if this is going to be a stage six. Our efforts have been to stay ahead of whatever number the WHO assigns."

So far, U.S. officials have referred 49 travelers with suspicious symptoms entering through border checkpoints to federal, state or local health officials. Eight cases remain under investigation, and the other 41 were negative, Napolitano said.

news/notes20090430g

[Today's Papers] from [Slate Magazine]

One Step Away From Full-On Pandemic

By Daniel Politi
Posted Thursday, April 30, 2009, at 6:41 AM ET

It was supposed to be President Obama's big 100th-day party, but swine flu has taken over. Everyone leads with the World Health Organization warning that a global pandemic of the A/H1N1 virus appears imminent. The Geneva-based U.N. agency raised its global pandemic alert level to Phase 5 "because the virus appears to be spreading easily person-to-person and cases are appearing that have no link to Mexico," explains USA Today. The next level, Phase 6, means a pandemic is ongoing, and WHO officials made it clear that's where they think we're headed. "All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparation plans," said WHO Director-General Margaret Chan. The first death outside of Mexico was reported yesterday in Texas, where a 23-month-old boy from Mexico City died this week at a Houston-area hospital. The Washington Post points out that increasing the alert level "could prompt a variety of measures, including more intensive efforts to identify cases and stricter measures to prevent the illness's spread, such as discouraging or banning public gatherings."

The number of known cases in the United States is now at least 91 from 10 states, while Mexican officials say as many as 159 people may have died from the virus. The New York Times points out that while the WHO urged calm, Chan "at times spoke as if a pandemic had already begun." Speaking to reporters, Chan said: "The biggest question right now is this: How severe will the pandemic be?" The Los Angeles Times is by far the most optimistic and points out experts seem to be coming to the conclusion that, in its current form, the H1N1 virus "isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics." Although the virus does appear to spread easily, it doesn't seem like its mortality rate will get anywhere close to the typical flu season that kills 36,000 people in the United States. The Wall Street Journal points out that some Mexican doctors believe many more people had the virus than the official numbers indicate, "suggesting it could turn out to be a relatively mild pandemic." But, of course, the flu virus is very unpredictable, and we're still at the early stage, so it could just as easily mutate and become much deadlier.

As it stands now, swine flu "may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare," notes the LAT. At first many were worried about what appeared to be striking similarities between the current virus and the 1918 flu that killed approximately 50 million people. But upon closer analysis, experts are feeling optimistic about what they are seeing. "There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks," an influenza expert tells the LAT. There are suggestions that those who were exposed to the 1957 flu pandemic may have some automatic immunity from the current virus, which might explain why swine flu appears to be particularly deadly for young people. And, as has been emphasized before, experts cautioned against inferring that the increasing number of cases means the virus is spreading particularly quickly. "You don't ever find anything that you don't look for," a molecular virologist said.

Despite these encouraging signs, the WHO made it clear it's not taking any chances, particularly since influenza viruses are "notorious for their rapid mutation and their unpredictable behavior," Chan said, calling for global solidarity. "After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic." President Obama said the virus is "cause for deep concern but not panic," and he used a news conference to mark his 100 days in office to advocate for some common-sense health safeguards that everyone can take. The president urged people to wash their hands frequently, cover their mouths when coughing, and stay home if they are sick. "It sounds trivial, but it makes a huge difference," he said.

In a separate front-page piece, the NYT notes that while the WHO said that "containment is no longer a feasible option" and countries should be focusing their efforts on "mitigation," many are ignoring that advice. "The globe is a confusing welter of bans, advisories and alerts on some pork and some people," notes the paper. For the most part, experts agree that closing borders isn't going to help stop the spread of the virus. Questioned by lawmakers, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano defended the decision to not close the border with Mexico, saying it "would be a very, very heavy cost for what epidemiologists tell us would be marginal benefit." But others insist that containment is the only thing that has been proven to work, and it's what has prevented the H5N1 avian flu from spreading as well as stopped the 1976 swine flu from reaching the wider population.

The WP goes inside with a dispatch from a border town in California that notes people are acting as though the American side is simply safer, "complicating efforts to contain the outbreak." On the Mexican side, face masks and rubber gloves are ubiquitous, but 50 feet to the north they are a rare sight. People wearing face masks in Mexico, often take them off as soon as they cross the border. "They all do," a border agent said. "Defeats the whole purpose."

The WSJ goes high with, and the WP off-leads, news that talks between government officials and Chrysler's creditors broke down, making it virtually certain that the automaker will be filing for bankruptcy today. The WSJ hears word that administration officials are optimistic all their preparation for this eventuality will pay off and Chrylser will be able to get through bankruptcy court "perhaps in a matter of weeks." The Obama administration tried to convince Chrysler's lenders to accept $2.25 billion in cash in exchange for forgiving $6.9 billion in debt, but they refused. The WP details that under the administration's strategy, Fiat would take over management of the company, and the U.S. and Canadian government would pump $10 billion into the company. The NYT points out that Chrysler's bankruptcy filing "could serve as a preview of what a filing by General Motors might look like."

The WP and NYT front new numbers that show the U.S. economy contracted at "its steepest pace in 50 years" (NYT) in the six months ending in March, but analysts are forecasting better times ahead. In the first quarter of the year, output declined by a 6.1 percent annual rate, but household consumption increased. At the same time, businesses decreased their inventories, suggesting production will eventually have to increase. "The situation is not nearly as dark as the first-quarter number suggests," one analyst said. That's not to say things will be turning around quickly, but many think the declines won't be nearly as severe in the coming months, although unemployment is likely to continue increasing, until the economy begins to come back early next year. "A month ago, people were still worried about the next Great Depression," an investment strategist tells the Post. "Now there's a much more positive tone in society at large and in investors' minds."

In the LAT's op-ed page, Joseph Margulies, co-counsel for Abu Zubaydah, writes that his client "paid with his mind" for the abuses he suffered during interrogations conducted by the CIA. Partly as a a result of injuries he suffered fighting Communists in Afghanistan, which were exacerbated by the American interrogation techniques and extended isolation, "Abu Zubaydah's mental grasp is slipping away." He now "suffers blinding headaches and has permanent brain damage." He is extremely sensitive to sounds—the "slightest noise drives him nearly insane"—and has suffered around 200 seizures over the last two years. He also can't remember key details about his life. "Gradually," writes Margulies, "his past, like his future, eludes him."

The WSJ takes a look at how Jacob Zuma's overwhelming victory in last week's elections has left one vexing question: Who will be South Africa's first lady? Zuma, an avowed polygamist, has been married four times and now has two wives as well as one fiancee. "It's Big Love, South African style," declares the paper. Zuma's first wife, whom he married in 1975, defended the practice, saying that "if there's respect between the husband and the wives and among the wives themselves, and if he's able to treat us equally, then it's not hard." But now that Zuma is president it seems he'll have to choose since there's supposed to be only one first lady to carry out official duties. The first wife jokingly said she has first dibs on the position but insisted that nothing has been decided yet.

news/notes20090430h

[Top News] from [REUTRS]

Mexico shuts down economy as flu pandemic imminent
Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:47am EDT
By Catherine Bremer

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Felipe Calderon told his people to stay home from Friday for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy, after the World Health Organization said a swine flu pandemic was imminent.

Calderon ordered government offices and private businesses not crucial to the economy to stop work to avoid further infections from the new virus, which has killed up to 176 people in Mexico and is now spreading around the world.

"There is no safer place than your own home to avoid being infected with the flu virus," he said in his first televised address since the crisis erupted last week. [ID:nN29466276]

Twelve countries have reported cases of the H1N1 strain, with the Netherlands the latest to join the list. It said a three year-old who had recently returned from Mexico had contracted the virus.

Switzerland also confirmed its first case on Thursday in a man returning from Mexico. Peru reported what appeared to be the first case in Latin America outside Mexico, also in someone who had been to the country.

On Wednesday, Texan officials reported the first swine flu death outside Mexico, a 22-month-old visiting Mexican boy.

The World Health Organization (WHO) raised its alert level to phase 5, the last step before a pandemic.

"Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world," WHO Director General Margaret Chan told a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday.

"The biggest question is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start."

WHO later issued guidance recommending all countries track any suspect cases and ensure medical workers dealing with them wear protective masks and gloves.

The organization has stopped short of recommending travel restrictions, border closures or any limitation on the movement of people, goods or services.

WORLD STOCK MARKETS RALLY

Mexico's peso currency weakened sharply after the government called for chunks of the economy to close. The peso fell 1.6 percent to 13.83 per dollar.

But world stocks hit a four-month peak on economic optimism, showing little sign of fears over the flu.

Earlier in the week they fell on worries that a major outbreak could hit the struggling global economy.

Almost all those infected outside Mexico have had mild symptoms, and only a handful of people have been admitted to hospital.

In Mexico City, a metropolis of 20 million, all schools, restaurants, nightclubs and public events have been shut down to try to stop the disease from spreading, bringing normal life to a virtual standstill.

Several countries have banned pork imports, though the World Health Organization says swine flu is not spread by eating pork. Egypt started confiscating and slaughtering pig herds despite criticism from the United Nations.

"There is no reason to do that. It's not a swine influenza, it's a human influenza," said Joseph Domenech, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation's chief veterinary officer. The FAO is lobbying for a name change for the virus.

President Barack Obama said on Wednesday there was no need for panic and rejected the possibility of closing the border with Mexico.

"At this point, (health officials) have not recommended a border closing," he said. "From their perspective, it would be akin to closing the barn door after the horses are out, because we already have cases here in the United States."

Obama also praised his predecessor for stockpiling anti-viral medication in anticipation of such an outbreak.

EXPERT SAYS VIRUS RELATIVELY WEAK

Masato Tashiro, head of the influenza virus research center at Japan's National Institute of Infectious Disease and a member of the WHO emergency committee, told Japan's Nikkei newspaper it appeared the H1N1 strain was far less dangerous than avian flu.

"I am very worried that we will use up the stockpile of anti-flu medicine and be unarmed before we need to fight against the avian influenza. The greatest threat to mankind remains the H5N1 avian influenza."

The WHO's Chan urged companies who make the drugs to ramp up production. Two antiviral drugs -- Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline and Tamiflu, made by Roche AG and Gilead Sciences Inc -- have been shown to work against the H1N1 strain.

Guan Yi, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said the swine flu virus could mix with avian flu, or H5N1, to become a very powerful and transmissible virus. "Then we will be in trouble, it will be a tragedy."

Mexico's central bank warned the outbreak could deepen the nation's recession, hurting an economy that has already shrunk by as much as 8 percent from the previous year in the first quarter.

The United States, Canada and many other countries have advised against non-essential travel to Mexico. Many tourists were hurrying to leave, crowding airports.

European Union health ministers were due on Thursday to discuss coordinating possible restrictions on travel to and from Mexico and Southeast Asian health ministers will hold emergency talks to coordinate their fight against swine flu next week.

Japan's Masato Tashiro said the possibility of an overreaction to the outbreak was a concern. "Excessive curbing of corporate activity will be a problem. The best course of action is to adopt rational measures."

news/notes20090429a

[Biography of the Day] from [Britannica]

Hirohito
（日本昭和天皇の誕生日）

Japanese Emperor Hirohito, who was born this day in 1901 in Tokyo, ruled his country from 1926 to 1989, a reign that included both Japan's military defeat in World War II and its postwar economic triumphs.


[On This Day] from [Britannica]

1913: Zipper patented
（１９１３： ジッパー特許取得）

Swedish Canadian Gideon Sundback received a U.S. patent this day in 1913 for the modern “hookless” zipper, which improved on the clasp locker exhibited by Whitcomb Judson at the 1893 World's Columbian Exposition in Chicago.


[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]

Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Japan takes measures to head off contagion
（日本：新型インフルエンザ対策本部を設置）

By JUN HONGO
Staff writer

The government on Tuesday heightened scrutiny of incoming tourists, warned Japanese living in Mexico to leave, and told those planning to go there to think twice after the World Health Organization raised the alert level for a new type of influenza.

The WHO elevated its alert level on the deadly swine-avian-human virus to Phase 4, indicating a significant human-to-human pandemic risk.

In a hastily arranged news conference after the WHO's alert, health minister Yoichi Masuzoe acknowledged the latest swine-avian-human flu is a new virus and said the government will monitor the nation's ports of entry to prevent a domestic outbreak.

While urging the public to remain calm, Masuzoe said preventive measures, including washing hands and gargling, should be taken to avoid infection.

Prime Minister Taro Aso and his Cabinet held the first meeting of a special task force Tuesday afternoon to discuss how to respond to the rapidly spreading epidemic.

"We recommend those capable of departing from Mexico to do so" due to the lack of available medical support in the country and the possibility of restrictions being placed on future departures, Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone told reporters.

Nakasone said no Japanese has been infected by the deadly virus. Media have reported that 152 deaths in Mexico have been confirmed or are suspected to have been caused by the virus.

Cases of swine flu infection have also been reported in the United States, Canada, the U.K. and Spain.

Nakasone said the Foreign Ministry issued the equivalent of its second-highest travel alert, urging all travelers to postpone unnecessary trips to Mexico.

The ministry also advised Japanese living in Mexico to leave if possible, and if not, urged them to "refrain from leaving their home if unnecessary, stock enough food and water, remain at a safe location and conduct thorough measures to prevent infection."

While Japan decided Tuesday to carry out onboard inspections of passengers and crew arriving from the U.S., Mexico and Canada at Narita International Airport, the Foreign Ministry said it will tighten visa rules for Mexican citizens.

The Japanese Embassy in Mexico was to suspend its visa waiver program Tuesday and force Mexicans to apply for a visa in advance, rather than upon arrival in Japan, the ministry said.

Japan will also ask Mexican travelers to Japan to submit a medical certificate from doctors upon arrival and answer a questionnaire to confirm their health status, Nakasone said.

The Foreign Ministry also said extra masks and flu drugs will arrive at the Japanese Embassy in Mexico City to be used for Japanese residents and travelers if necessary.


[NATIONAL NEWS]

Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Towns, hospitals brace for epidemic
（国内の関係機関、病院：新型インフル発生に万全の備え）

(Kyodo News) Municipalities and hospitals intensified efforts nationwide Tuesday to prevent or minimize the impact of a possible outbreak of the deadly new flu from Mexico.

Local government officials said they are ready to ask for school closures, reduced corporate hours and stay-at-home curfews if a person infected with the new swine-avian-human flu virus shows up.

Yokohama set up a special task force Tuesday to deal with a potential outbreak and is looking to stockpile protective masks for distribution.

"As we expect to draw visitors to events commemorating the 150th anniversary of Yokohama port's opening to the outside world, we must prioritize the safety of people who will gather here," said Shuji Kobayashi, head of the task force.

At Yokohama port, quarantine officers said they are poised to board ships for inspections if crew members or passengers show such symptoms as coughing or fevers, although no ships from infected areas are scheduled to arrive at present.

Major transportation facilities are also gearing up for an outbreak. At Narita International Airport in Chiba Prefecture, many travelers were seen wearing masks.

"I'm worried. I'm taking a 1-year-old with me" to Florida to meet relatives, said Etsuko Matsushita, 59, from Fukuoka Prefecture, before departure.

Another traveler, a 67-year-old woman from Fukushima Prefecture who declined to give her name, said she brought about 10 masks for her and her husband's trip to the Czech Republic, saying, "I think airports are most dangerous in terms of infection."

Narita's quarantine office decided the same day to conduct onboard inspections of not only direct flights from Mexico, but also flights from the United States and Canada. Its officers appeared very busy, with one complaining of a lack of staff.


[BUSINESS NEWS]

Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Honda fears 95% plunge in '09 operating profit
（ホンダ：’０９年度営業利益は９４・７％減の１００億円の見込み）

(Kyodo News) Honda Motor Co. said Tuesday it expects group operating profit to dive 94.7 percent from fiscal 2008 to a mere 10 billion for the current business year unless auto sales recover from the damage caused by the global economic crisis.

For fiscal 2008, which ended in March, Honda said group net profit sank 77.2 percent from a year earlier to 137.01 billion, but fared better than its earlier projected net profit of 80 billion.

Operating profit also plunged, dropping 80.1 percent to 189.64 billion on sales of 10.01 trillion, down 16.6 percent for its first year-on-year drop in nine years.

But among Japan's top three automakers, Honda is likely to stand alone in staying in the black, as Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. expect to report huge losses next month for fiscal 2008.

In addition to the stronger yen, which dented overseas profits, Honda was hit hard as vehicle sales across all its overseas markets dropped 10.5 percent from the previous year to 2,961,000 units.

Domestic vehicle sales slid 9.6 percent to 556,000 units.

In total, sales in Japan and abroad shrank 10.4 percent to 3,517,000 units.

Looking ahead, Honda is likely to fall into the red with a group operating loss of 110 billion for the April-September half.

For the full year through next March, the automaker projects group net profit will fall 70.8 percent to 40 billion on sales of 8.37 trillion, down 16.4 percent.

Japan's second-largest automaker also projected car sales would slip 8.7 percent from a year earlier to 3,210,000 units for fiscal 2009. Its sales outlook for motorcycles stood at 8,595,000 units, down 15.0 percent.

news/notes20090429b

[Today's News] from [The Guardian]

Swine flu pandemic plans stepped up as US investigates deaths
• Poorest nations would be hardest hit by a swine flu pandemic, says WHO
• California declares a state of emergency as 13 cases are confirmed

Chris McGreal in Washington and Rory Carroll in Mexico City
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 29 April 2009 03.52 BST
Article history

The World Health Organisation yesterday called on all governments to prepare for a swine flu pandemic and warned that if the ­disease took hold across the globe it could prove a disaster for ­poorer countries.

The call came as the number of confirmed infections rose above 100 on four continents and the head of the US Centres for Disease Control, Richard Besser, said the virus is almost certain to claim lives in America.

"I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection," he said.

In New York officials said 18 children from two schools were being tested for swine flu after showing symptoms, and the city's health commissioner said "many hundreds" more children who have fallen sick may be infected with the virus, although all appear to be recovering.

The possible infection of large numbers of children in the city could be evidence of human-to-human transmission of the disease outside the source of the ­epidemic, Mexico. A group of children from a New York school who visited the country recently may have spread the illness to other children since their return.

Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, appeared at a press conference to calm fears in the city. He said that so far the virus had behaved according to the pattern of normal seasonal flu.

"Additional cases do not come as much of a surprise – flu spreads, that's what a virus does. But the good news is that all our cases are mild, and are recovering."

Lastnight Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of California, declared a state of emergency following the confirmation of 13 cases of the illness.

The Mexican authorities said yesterday that three more people died of swine flu on Monday, bringing the toll to 152.

Mexico City's mayor, Marcelo Ebrard, ordered the closure of gyms, sports clubs and swimming pools. Schools, theatres and many other public places are shut and the city authorities are considering closing the extensive underground system.

Mexicans stripped supermarket shelves bare yesterday, prompted by growing concerns that the outbreak could result in a nationwide curfew.

Dr Keiji Fukuda, the WHO assistant director general for health security, said that while the organisation continued to say that a pandemic was not inevitable, the rising number of infections meant that governments should plan for the worst.

"Countries should take this opportunity to really prepare themselves for the possibility of a pandemic," he said.

The number of confirmed infections in the US, the largest outside Mexico, rose to 65 with new cases in Indiana and New Jersey. The US homeland security secretary, Janet Napolitano, said: "We anticipate that there will be confirmed cases in more states in the coming days."

Napolitano said the US will begin isolating people arriving at airports and borders who exhibit flu-like symptoms. President Obama has asked Congress for $1.5bn to build antivirus drug stockpiles and to monitor the spread of the disease.

But American officials were keen to keep the threat in perspective, noting that 36,000 people a year die of flu.

The number of confirmed swine flu cases continued to rise across the world to more than 100 outside Mexico. Yesterday there were 11 new cases of the disease in New Zealand and two in Israel, all among people who recently travelled to Mexico. Canada said it had seven more cases, bringing its total to 13. A second case was confirmed in Spain.

But while the latest confirmations were in developed nations, Fukuda warned that the greatest threat is to the poorest countries: "We know from history … that the poorer countries are the ones who really get hit the hardest, they are really hit disproportionately hard, and they also have the least resources to deal with these kind of situations," he said.

Suspected infections are being investigated in Brazil, Guatemala and Peru, all countries that would struggle to cope with a large-scale swine flu outbreak.

Although the flu season is passing in the northern hemisphere, the onset of winter in southern Africa and parts of South America means that the impact of any pandemic could be particularly severe on countries with fragile health services.

Fukuda said the WHO is still investigating why all the deaths have so far been confined to one country and is looking to see if infections are becoming established in communities or countries outside Mexico. But he warned that even if the disease does not take hold immediately, that does not mean the threat has passed.

"Even if activity goes down and quiet over the next few weeks, I think it would be very hard to know if it has disappeared," he said, noting that the 1918 flu pandemic was not initially taken seriously, fell into a lull for a few months, and then returned to claim millions of lives.

The authorities ordered all restaurants in Mexico City – there are more than 30,000 – to serve only takeaway food to reduce the risk from people congregating to eat. For the third consecutive day, pharmacies were sold out of face masks, prompting media advice on how to make home-made versions with cloth and tape.

US health officials said it would take several months to ready a vaccine.

news/notes20090429c

[Today's Paper] from [Los Angeles Times]

Schwarzenegger, Obama boost efforts against swine flu
The governor declares state of emergency, opening the door for quicker action by state agencies. Obama seeks $1.5 billion to fight the outbreak.

By Thomas H. Maugh II
April 29, 2009

As isolated outbreaks of swine flu continue to be confirmed around the world, with new cases reported Tuesday in Canada, Israel, France, New Zealand, Costa Rica and South Korea, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger proclaimed a state of emergency and the White House asked Congress for an additional $1.5 billion to fight the outbreak.

State health officials have been aggressively working to address the crisis, and the proclamation is one more step in that effort, not an indication that the outbreak in California has become more severe.

In the U.S. and elsewhere, officials are holding their breath to see whether the virus' spread will turn into something more severe or, as many hope, peter out. Meanwhile, like Schwarzenegger, they are responding aggressively.

President Obama, in a letter to Congress, asked for the $1.5 billion with "maximum flexibility to allow us to address this emerging situation." The letter said the money could go toward stockpiling antiviral medicine, vaccine development, disease monitoring and diagnosis, and assisting international efforts to limit the spread of swine flu.

"In our opinion, this is about prudent planning moving forward," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters.

Also Tuesday, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said she was forming a swine flu task force to coordinate U.S. efforts and noted that the government had made 12 million doses of antiviral drugs available to states. She said her agency was resisting calls from Capitol Hill to screen inbound air travelers from Mexico and those crossing at border checkpoints.

"Our focus is not on closing the border or conducting exit screening," she said. "It is on mitigation."

The total number of confirmed swine flu cases in the United States had reached 68 as of late Tuesday afternoon and more than 100 worldwide, not counting the still-unknown number of cases in Mexico. At least some of the new cases appear to have come from human-to-human transmission outside Mexico.

Such community transmission is one of the early earmarks of a pandemic, and if it continues to be observed, experts predicted, the World Health Organization is likely to raise its alert to Level 5, from elevated Level 4. Such an increase might involve more travel restrictions and stronger efforts to control the spread of the virus.

At a Tuesday morning news conference in Geneva, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general of the WHO, said a pandemic was not inevitable, but that if one did occur it was likely to be mild -- a conclusion drawn from the lack of deaths outside Mexico.

But he cautioned that the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed millions worldwide, also started out mild. In the spring of that year, a mild pandemic petered out, only to return with a vengeance in the fall.

"I think we have to be mindful and respectful of the fact that influenza moves in ways we cannot predict," he said.

Moreover, he added, it is unlikely that health authorities will be able to limit the current outbreak's spread. "At this time, containment is not a feasible option," he said.

One ray of good news is that the outbreak may be leveling off in Mexico, where the first cases appeared. Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said Tuesday that the number of new suspected cases of swine flu had declined from 141 on Saturday to 119 on Sunday and 110 Monday.

At least 159 people have died in Mexico from influenza and its complications, and more than 2,000 cases have been reported. It is not clear, however, what proportion of those deaths and cases are attributable to swine flu. So far, only 26 of the deaths have been firmly linked to the virus.

Mexican authorities ordered all restaurants in Mexico City to begin serving only take-out food in an effort to limit spread of the virus, and they closed down archaeological sites in an effort to limit assemblies of people. Officials had already requested that bars, movie theaters, pool halls, gyms and churches in the capital close. Schools nationwide are closed until May 6.

The Mexico City Chamber of Commerce estimated that Mexico City is losing approximately $60 million a day from reduced tourism, trade and other business.

Mexican authorities were still trying to pinpoint where the disease started. They say they have found no infected pigs in the country, although a boy who lives near a pig farm in the state of Veracruz was confirmed to have contracted the disease as early as April 1. His community is also a largely migrant community, with people traveling to and from the U.S. regularly.

"Where did the virus come from? We don't know. Did someone come from California or did someone go from Mexico to California? We don't have that information," Cordova said.

As more countries around the world warned against unnecessary travel to Mexico, soccer's regional governing body, CONCACAF, said it was canceling a beach soccer tournament scheduled in Puerto Vallarta today. The group had already suspended an under-17 tournament, the semifinals of which were to be played today in Tijuana.

Two new confirmed swine flu cases were reported in Sacramento County on Monday evening, bringing the California total to 13. In the wake of that announcement, the governor's emergency proclamation orders all agencies and employees to provide all possible assistance to the Department of Public Health, authorizes that department to enter any necessary contracts for materials and services to combat the outbreak, makes it easier to purchase materials and waives some certification requirements for public health laboratories.

In Indiana, one case was reported Tuesday, a young adult in the northern part of the state.

Three new cases were also confirmed in Texas, bringing that state's total to six, and 17 probable cases in New York were confirmed. Authorities had previously confirmed 28 cases in New York, two in Kansas and one in Ohio, and more confirmations are expected hourly as testing continues.

New York City health officials also said that two people with swine flu symptoms, unconnected to the well-publicized outbreak at St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, have been hospitalized.

All the previous confirmed U.S. cases have been mild, but five of them now involve hospitalizations, three in California and two in Texas, said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have been no known deaths from the virus outside Mexico. The Los Angeles County coroner's office had said it was investigating two deaths thought to be linked to swine flu, but in a statement Tuesday said no links could be found.

"We still do not have a good explanation for why the pattern of cases in other countries appear relatively mild while the pattern of cases in Mexico appear to be much more severe," Fukuda said. "This will be the object of a great deal of research and attention, but at this time we can't say why there appears to be a difference."

U.S. officials said more severe cases in this country were likely. "I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection," Besser said. All types of flu kill people, experts said, and there was no reason to believe this one should be different.

New Zealand authorities said that 13 residents who had recently traveled to Mexico showed symptoms of the virus. Swine flu was confirmed in three, and the authorities are assuming that all have it, Health Minister Tony Ryall said. The number broadened to include another traveler from North America.

Canadian officials said seven new cases had been confirmed in that country, bringing its total to 13.

Israel's Health Ministry confirmed two cases in that country among travelers, and Spain confirmed a second case there. South Korean authorities said they had found a probable case there in a recent visitor to Mexico. There was also a confirmed case in Costa Rica and a probable case in France.

Two cases had previously been confirmed in Britain.

All of the foreign cases have been mild, but the victims have been hospitalized for quarantine, in light of fears about the spread of the virus.

Also Tuesday, Cuba became the first country to suspend flights to and from Mexico, ordering a 48-hour cessation. Mexico is a major transit point for flights to that isolated country, which has not yet reported any cases of swine flu. Argentina subsequently canceled all flights to and from Mexico for five days.

Carnival and Royal Caribbean cruise lines said their ships would not stop in Mexico until at least next week.

news/notes20090429d

[Today's Paper] from [The New York Times]

Specter Joins Democrats; Senate Count May Reach 60

By CARL HULSE and ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: April 28, 2009

WASHINGTON — In an unexpected turnabout in political loyalties, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania announced on Tuesday that he was leaving the Republican Party to become a Democrat, bolstering President Obama at a pivotal moment for his policy agenda and further marginalizing Republicans on Capitol Hill.

Mr. Specter acknowledged that the surprise decision was driven by his intense desire to win a sixth term next year. It came after he and his political advisers concluded over the weekend that he could not win a Republican primary against a conservative challenger, particularly in light of his vote for the president’s economic stimulus package.

“I am not prepared to have my 29-year record in the United States Senate decided by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate — not prepared to have that record decided by that jury,” said Mr. Specter, 79, a moderate who has long been known for breaking with his party.

Republicans were knocked off stride by the announcement, and many had no warning from Mr. Specter, who met a polite but chilly reception when he entered a party luncheon to inform his colleagues. They immediately labeled it, in the words of Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who heads the party’s campaign arm, a naked act of “political self-preservation,” and they sought to portray it as an isolated case growing out of Pennsylvania’s political environment.

The defection of Mr. Specter creates the potential for Democrats to control 60 votes in the Senate if Al Franken prevails this summer in the court fight over last November’s Minnesota Senate election, a prospect that appears increasingly likely.

If Democrats could hold those votes together, Republicans would be unable to mount filibusters as Congress moves into the critical phase of acting on Mr. Obama’s ambitious agenda on health care and energy. A last line of defense against a Democratic-controlled Congress and White House would thereby be eliminated.

“This is transformative,” said Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon. “It’s game-changing.”

Democrats warned that it would remain a formidable challenge to keep their ranks together. Mr. Specter said he would not be an automatic Democratic vote, though he will be pulled in that direction since he now faces the prospect of running in a Democratic primary.

Mr. Specter was one of just three Republican senators to vote in favor of the stimulus package this year. He is a supporter of abortion rights and expanded embryonic stem cell research, and he opposed a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. But he also voted to authorize the war in Iraq, backed President George W. Bush’s Supreme Court nominees, favors school vouchers and has taken many other positions that put him at odds with most Democrats.

Mr. Specter said he had received commitments from Mr. Obama and Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, to support him in any primary, backing intended to deter Democratic challengers. Mr. Obama is scheduled to endorse Mr. Specter on Wednesday morning at a joint appearance.

Administration officials said Mr. Obama was handed a note from an aide at 10:25 a.m. Tuesday in his daily economic briefing. The note, said a senior administration official, read, “Specter is announcing he is changing parties.” Seven minutes later, Mr. Obama reached Mr. Specter by telephone.

In a brief conversation, the president said, “You have my full support,” said the official, who heard the phone call. The president added that Democrats were “thrilled to have you.”

White House officials said Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. had been at the center of the effort to persuade Mr. Specter to change parties. They said a switch had been the subject of years of bantering and discussion between the two men, who often sat together while riding the Amtrak train home. But the conversation turned more earnest after Mr. Biden lobbied Mr. Specter to vote with the White House on the stimulus bill this year.

One adviser to Mr. Biden said that since that day 10 weeks ago, Mr. Biden and Mr. Specter had spoken 14 times — six times in person and eight in telephone conversations. In each case, White House officials said, Mr. Biden argued that the Republican Party had increasingly drifted away from Mr. Specter since the election and that ideologically, he was closer to the Democratic Party.

White House officials said that there was no realistic way to guarantee that Mr. Specter would not face a primary race for the Democratic nomination, but noted that there was no Democrat in a position to resist the state’s political machine and make a serious challenge. More than that, White House officials said they had assured Mr. Specter that Mr. Obama would campaign for him and raise money for him if necessary.

“The president’s appreciative of this decision and particularly appreciative of the support that he gave on a number of things, the stimulus package being one of them,” said David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s senior adviser. “And the president will do whatever he can do to help.”

Some Republicans bade good riddance to Mr. Specter, who was badly trailing in polls against former Representative Patrick J. Toomey, who also once led the Club for Growth, a group of fiscal conservatives who have financed primary challenges against Republicans they consider to have strayed too far from conservative principles.

Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee, did not mince words, saying Mr. Specter “left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.”

But Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, a Republican who also supported the administration’s economic stimulus plan, said Mr. Specter’s view that the party had shifted too far to the right reflected the increasingly inhospitable climate for moderates in the Republican Party.

Ms. Snowe said national Republican leaders were not grasping that “political diversity makes a party stronger, and ultimately we are heading to having the smallest political tent in history.”

Other Republicans said Democrats were on the verge of unchecked power in Washington, a theme Republicans have pushed in an effort to turn political weakness into a strength.

“The danger of that for the country,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, “is that there won’t automatically be an ability to restrain the excess that is typically associated with big majorities and single-party rule.”

Mr. Specter, who sat on the Democratic side of the dais during a committee hearing Tuesday afternoon, said he had been assured that his seniority would be recognized by his new party, which would put him in line to jump over some Democrats for subcommittee chairmanships after the 2010 midterm elections.

Mr. Specter has suffered from a variety of serious illnesses over the years, but said on Tuesday that he was “full of vim, vigor and vitality.”

He has angered many Democrats over the years with his positions, particularly his support of Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. But he said that with his record of 10,000 votes cast over almost 30 years, he had done something to anger virtually everyone.

“I don’t expect everybody to agree with all my votes,” he said. “I don’t agree with them all myself at this point.”

news/notes20090429e

[Today's Newspaper] fom [The Washington Post]

Specter Leaves GOP, Shifting Senate Balance
Democrats Are Poised to Hold A Powerful 60-Seat Majority

By Paul Kane, Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania provided a boost to President Obama's ambitious legislative agenda yesterday by abandoning the Republican Party in the face of shifting political realities at home and an aggressive courtship by the White House and party leaders.

In an announcement that shocked colleagues on both sides of the aisle, Specter said he had become increasingly uncomfortable as a moderate in a party dominated by conservatives and would join the Democrats. He bluntly admitted that his decision was tied to his belief that he could not win reelection as a Republican next year.

Although he said he "will not be an automatic 60th vote" for Democrats, Specter's decision left Democratic Party leaders jubilant. The addition of Specter to their ranks, coupled with the likelihood that the Minnesota Supreme Court will name Al Franken the winner of that state's disputed Senate race in the coming months, means that Democrats are all but certain to control a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the chamber for the first time in about 30 years.

The news came on the eve of Obama's 100th day in office, and in a phone call shortly after he was informed of the party switch, the president promised Specter his "full support" in attempting to secure another term in 2010. Specter will appear with Obama and Vice President Biden, who helped lead efforts to bring Specter into the party fold, at the White House this morning.

Neither party has controlled 60 or more seats since 1978, and Republicans warned yesterday that such a majority would give Obama almost unfettered control over the federal government. But Specter vowed to maintain his current policy positions -- including opposition to a labor organizing bill and to the nominee Obama has tapped to run the key legal counsel unit at the Justice Department.

But even as Specter pledged his continued independence, Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) later told reporters that there is an effort underway to refashion the union legislation in an effort to gain Specter's support. The Pennsylvanian supported the legislation, known as the Employee Free Choice Act, in 2007 but announced his opposition to the bill in its current form as his primary challenge from former congressman Pat Toomey (R) gained momentum.

Democrats also hope the move will increase momentum for Obama's universal health-care plan, given that Specter, who has battled a brain tumor and Hodgkin's disease, is an ardent advocate of increased spending on medical research and causes.

Specter, 79, will retain seniority in the Senate as if he were elected as a Democrat when he first took office in 1980. As a result, he will likely receive a plum subcommittee chairmanship on the Appropriations Committee in the future, and he indicated that his goal is to one day chair the full committee. He has already served as Judiciary Committee chairman, after conservatives put aside major ideological concerns to elevate him to that post in 2004, and until yesterday he was the top Republican on that panel.

The decision was the culmination of a months-long effort by key Democrats to woo Specter, who began his political career as a Democrat in Philadelphia but has been a Republican for 43 years. Biden, a regular Amtrak passenger with Specter as the two traveled to Wilmington and Philadelphia, respectively, when both served in the Senate, met with him face to face six times and spoke on the phone with him on eight more occasions since mid-February, aides said. Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell, whose first job as a prosecutor in Philadelphia came under the tutelage of then-District Attorney Specter, had also lobbied him about making the switch, but it was his Senate colleagues who apparently closed the deal.

Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) said he approached Specter at the Senate gym a few weeks ago and, aware that he faced a difficult primary next year, asked, "Did you ever think about returning to your original party?" He said Specter responded, "You know, a number of people have talked to me about that."

During a vote Monday evening, Durbin realized the prospect of a switch could be more serious when he saw Specter's wife, Joan, seated in the visitors gallery. Specter and Reid then disappeared into the majority leader's office, and Durbin got a call from Reid a short while later, telling him the deal was done.

Specter's political standing in Pennsylvania has become increasingly tenuous in recent years. His record as a moderate, combined with the shrinking GOP base in the Keystone State, would make a general election difficult, and Toomey, who came within two percentage points of defeating Specter in 2004, was leading in public polls by double digits heading into next April's GOP primary.

Specter received his own final poll Friday, an assessment he called "bleak." He ultimately chose to cast his lot with Democrats, he said in a news conference yesterday, because "I am not prepared to have my 29-year record in the United States Senate decided by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate."

A handful of Pennsylvania Democrats had been considering pursuit of the Senate nomination, but potential opposition to Specter began to melt yesterday as the would-be contenders learned that he would have support from Obama and practically every leading Democrat in Washington.

Earlier this year, Specter outraged his Republican colleagues by supporting Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus program. Specter said at the time that the plan -- which he worked with two other Republicans to trim by more than $100 billion -- was necessary to avert another Great Depression. Toomey jumped in the race after he cast the votes, and Democrats soon stepped up their courtship efforts.

"The stimulus vote was a schism," Specter told reporters yesterday.

A decade ago, Republicans counted nine senators from the 11 states stretching up the Interstate 95 corridor north of the Capitol; today, they have three GOP senators from those states, and one, Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), will retire in 2010.

While Democrats celebrated the surprise move, Republicans alternately blasted Specter as a turncoat who had embraced political expediency over principle, or sank into soul-searching about the future of their party. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), a fellow Northeastern moderate, called the news "devastating" for a party that has been unable to appeal to centrist voters.

"Many Republicans feel alienated and disaffected from the party," Snowe said.

Senate Republican leaders appeared ashen after Specter made a brief appearance at their weekly policy luncheon to tell them the news in person. "Obviously, we are not happy that Senator Specter has decided to become a Democrat," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) told reporters, attempting to minimize the blow. "This is not a national story. This is a Pennsylvania story," he said.

news/notes20090429f

[Health] from [abcNEWS]

First U.S. Death From Swine Flu in Texas the CDC Confirms
A 23-Month-Old Child Is the First American to Die From Swine Flu, the CDC Reports

By AMMU KANNAMPILLY
April 29, 2009

A 23-month-old child from Texas has become the first American to die in the swine flu outbreak, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta confirmed today. The CDC has also confirmed that the baby had recently traveled to Mexico.

"This is obviously a serious situation," said President Obama of the developments Wednesday. He further urged local health departments to watch for new cases -- and for schools to "strongly consider" closing their doors if the virus is suspected or detected among students or staff.

There are now 71 confirmed cases in the U.S., the CDC reports.

In Chicago, officials closed a school on the city's North Side after a "probable" swine flu infection was reported Tuesday. Blood samples are being sent to the CDC for analysis. If confirmed, Illinois would become the sixth state to report an outbreak.

Germany and Austria today became the latest countries to confirm swine flu infections. The Robert Koch Institute, Germany's national disease control center, has confirmed three cases, including two women -- a 37-year-old in Bavaria and a 22-year-old in Hamburg -- and one man. All three are undergoing treatment at German hospitals.

And the Egyptian government has begun slaughtering all 300,000 pigs in the country, according to local reports. No swine flu cases have yet been confirmed on the country, though its neighbor Israel has reported two.

Governments around the world are struggling to contain the disease, but no one is ready yet to call the outbreak a full fledged pandemic.

"It's a very serious possibility, but it is still too early to say that this is inevitable," the World Health organization flu chief, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, told reporters today.

Swine Flu Death Reinforces CDC's Prior Warnings

The death comes as public fears over swine flu continue to grow. Before this fatality, health officials confirmed Tuesday that five patients in the United States have been hospitalized with swine flu; all have recovered.

And last night, a flight from Baltimore to Mexico was, for a time, suspected of carrying a passenger with swine flu. The airport had prepared to quarantine the plane before authorities said the concern was unwarranted.

Both the Obama administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have been warning for days that American deaths should be expected from swine flu.

"I think what the American people need to be confident of is that President Obama, the Department of Homeland Security and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta are being very aggressive in tackling the problem," Valerie Jarrett, senior White House adviser, told "Good Morning America" today.

"We were unfortunately expecting that there would be deaths, but we're working really hard to educate the American people so that we take reasonable precautions."

The White House has already requested a billion and a half dollars to fight the growing outbreak.

Meanwhile, Mexico's Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said on Tuesday night that more than 1,300 people were in hospitals, some of them "seriously" ill, out of a total of around 2,500 suspected cases of the virus.

"In the last few days there has been a decline (in cases)," Cordova told a news conference. "The death figures have remained more or less stable."

Cordova said the victims ranged from children through young adults and middle-aged people to the elderly, a different pattern to the common seasonal flu that mainly kills the elderly and already unwell people.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said today three more cases of the flu have been confirmed, for a total of five known cases.

After Mexico, U.S. Is Hardest Hit

In the U.S., the outbreak has escalated, with the total number of cases confirmed in the United States jumping to 71 and spreading to two more states, health officials said. Experts expect that figure to keep rising.

"I do expect more cases and expect more states to be affected," Rear Admiral Dr. Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's science and public health program, told a Senate hearing today. "I think we need to be prepared that even if it starts to look a little better, it may get a little worse."

The CDC has been working to distribute test kits for the virus, identified only last week in the country. Without the kits, confirming infection can take days. To fight the epidemic, the Obama administration is asking Congress for $1.5 billion. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said the president was requesting the funds "out of an abundance of caution" to "enhance our nation's capability to respond to the potential spread of this outbreak."

The government's request underscores how seriously U.S. officials are treating the threat. Alarmed by the growing number of swine flu cases and the possibility that a California man may have died from the disease, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency today to help deal with the outbreak.

California has confirmed 15 cases of swine flu, and Tuesday it was investigating whether one man may have died as a result of the virus. According to Los Angeles County public health official Jonathan Fielding, the case is still being investigated. If it is confirmed, it would be the second death in the U.S. attributed to the illness.

Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC, declined to comment on the California investigation, but said, "I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection."

Florida has reported an incidence of swine flu today, and Indiana health officials confirmed this afternoon that a student at Notre Dame has swine flu. These developments bring to seven the number of states where the infections are being investigated.

In Orlando, Fla., the chief medical officer at Florida Hospital Loran Hauck indicated the flu has spread to a tourist who visiting the crowded Disney World.

"A case was diagnosed here in Orlando today on a tourist from Mexico who came to Disney attractions two days ago to visit," Hauck wrote in the email. Florida health officials have not confirmed that the tourist was stricken with swine flu.

Indiana joins Ohio, New York, Texas, Kansas and California as states with confirmed cases.

The outbreak is expected to keep growing because the CDC said today the new count includes "a number of hospitalizations."

The CDC in Atlanta has become the center for the swine flu investigation. It is one of only four laboratories in the world that have the expertise to unravel a novel flu strain.

"What we're trying to do is to identify how bad, how good, the swine flu is currently operating -- is it expanding, is it contracting, is it maintaining a steady state," said Phillip Navin, director of the Division of Emergency Operations at the CDC.

With the uptick in cases, the CDC shipped out more anti-virals and sent additional teams into the field.

"I think at the moment we need to be looking forward and making sure that we're doing everything that we can to keep people from getting sick," said Dr. Steve Reed, director of the CDC's Influeza Coordination Unit.

New York City Sees Big Jump in Swine Flu Cases

The biggest increase occurred in New York City where the number of cases leaped from 28 to 45, the CDC said.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Monday the cases were confined to a "single cluster," students of St. Francis Preparatory School and their relatives. Several of the students had spent spring break in Cancun, Mexico, which health officials suspect is the origin of the outbreak.

But Bloomberg said Tuesday that it appears to have spread to at least one other school, Public School 177, a school for autistic children. Of PS 177's 380 students, 82 called in sick today and at least a dozen have fevers. One of those students has two siblings at St. Francis Prep, Bloomberg said. Both of the those schools are located in the borough of Queens.

The mayor also said there are six possible cases of the flu in a Manattan school, Ascension parochial school.

And New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden said today that "many hundreds" of students and teachers at St. Francis are sick -- though most of those cases appear mild so far.

"It is here and it is spreading," Frieden said. "We do not know whether it will continue to spread."

At one point the Ernst and Young corporation said it had confirmed a case at its Manhattan headquarters, but later retracted the statement.

In addition, there were four more cases in Texas and three additional cases in California.

Leaders in Congress raced each other to hold hearings on the outbreak. Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa, chairman of the Senate appropriations subcommittee that deals with pandemic preparedness, called an emergency hearing to address funding for states and federal government

CONTINUED ON news/notes20090429g

news/notes20090429g

[Health] from [ABC NEWS]

First U.S. Death From Swine Flu in Texas the CDC Confirms
A 23-Month-Old Child Is the First American to Die From Swine Flu, the CDC Reports

By AMMU KANNAMPILLY
April 29, 2009

CONTINUED FROM news/notes20090429f

Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., called another hearing for Wednesday and Rep. Henry Waxman, D- Calif., the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee called for a hearing on Thursday.

Concern among travelers was so great that Carnival Cruises Tuesday suspended its stops at Mexican ports because of its concerns about swine flu.

Around the world, New Zealand confirmed 11 cases, and Israel confirmed one Tuesday. South Korea, Australia and the Czech Republic announced several suspected cases.

A South Korean Catholic nun traveling in Mexico has tested positive for swine flu, according to reporting by ABC's Joohee Cho. South Korean authorities believe the 51-year-old woman caught the disease from a taxi driver and have requesting the Mexican government look into the matter.

Ten countries have restricted their imports of U.S. pork or swine, including Russia, China, Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates and Ecuador.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said pork, soybean and corn prices had fallen in the last two days and criticized what he said were illogical restrictions on pork.

Officials Fighting Swine Flu Learned Lessons From SARS

Korean health authorities are examining 315 other passengers that were on the same flight with the nun and have already injected Tamiflu into eight passengers who sat near her. Spain had one previously confirmed case, the United Kingdom, two and Canada, six. France is still testing some people and some test results in Germany came back negative.

Most of the individuals involved had recently returned from Mexico.

To slow the global spread of the virus, the U.S. State Department and the European Union's health commissioner recommended avoiding nonessential travel to Mexico.

Russia, Hong Kong and Taiwan said they would quarantine visitors showing symptoms of the virus amid global concern about a possible pandemic, which means a prevalent and rapidly spreading disease over a large region.

Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew told the Straits Times that Singaporeans returning from Mexico would be quarantined.

Argentina also installed airport heat sensors and suspended flights from Mexico, as did Cuba.

But Gregory Hartl, a World Health Organization spokesman, told reporters that it did not recommend border closure or travel restrictions as a countermeasure.

He noted that infected people may not show symptoms at the airport or when they reach a border crossing. "Certainly, if you feel that you are ill, you should not travel, in any case, to anywhere," Hartl said.

Lessons learned from the SARS (a viral respiratory disease) outbreak in Asia in 2003 showed that border closure was economically disruptive and not particularly effective. "In public health terms, it didn't work, so we don't want to repeat something that didn't work" Hartl said.

But governments in Asia were not taking any chances. Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines dusted off thermal scanners used in the SARS crisis as they checked for signs of fever among passengers from North America.

South Korea and Indonesia introduced similar screening. In Malaysia, health workers in face masks took the temperatures of passengers as they arrived on a flight from Los Angeles.

China said anyone experiencing flulike symptoms within two weeks of arrival had to report to authorities.

India will start screening people arriving from Mexico, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Spain, Britain and France for flulike symptoms, said Vineet Chawdhry, a top health ministry official. It also will contact people who have arrived from Mexico and other affected countries in the past 10 days to check for the symptoms, he said.

These measures came after the World Health Organization announced that it had raised its pandemic alert level to Phase 4 from Phase 3, the first time the alert level has been raised above 3 since the system was adopted in 2005.

The Phase 4 designation signifies that the new swine flu virus can cause sustained outbreaks and is adapting itself to spread among humans, significant steps toward a pandemic. But the ranking does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a foregone conclusion.

"If the virus is an efficient virus, if it spreads easily from human to human, it will probably continue to spread," Hartl said.

All transmission of the disease so far appears to have been human to human and not from animal or other contact, according to the WHO. "There is no danger from eating pork," Hartl said. "If you cook pork well, if you cook all meat well, it kills all virus."

Swine Flu Ground Zero

Outside Mexico, where 159 people have died, the United States has been the country worse hit by the swine flu outbreak. Many of the cases appear to be students who recently visited Mexico.

Addressing the National Academy of Sciences Monday, President Obama acknowledged the efforts to keep pace with the spread of the disease within the United States.

"We are closely monitoring the emerging cases of swine flu in the United States," he said. "And this is obviously a cause for concern and requires a heightened state of alert. But it is not a cause for alarm."

There is no vaccination for the swine flu strain, which has elements of pig, bird and human strains. But officials said they have ramped up medical surveillance around the country and, as part of the emergency declaration, freed up state and federal resources for prevention. Officials also emphasized the importance of individual care and good hygienic practices.

"Even if this outbreak is a small one, we can't anticipate we won't have follow-up outbreaks," U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said.

A different scenario is unfolding across the border in Mexico. While authorities hunt for the source of the swine flu outbreak, the country is under lock down. Schools, museums, parks and even churches in Mexico City have been shut down by the government. A leading business group estimates that canceled events and closure of establishments to prevent the spread of swine flu is costing Mexico City at least $57 million a day.

All of Mexico's Mayan ruins and Aztec pyramids have also been shut down until further notice.

"I haven't been out for days," said one woman, who only left to bring her baby to the doctor for a routine vaccination.

The government has advised people to stay home and indicated that those infected by the virus could be isolated. In the country's deserted capital, public events were cancelled for the next week or so. Sales of masks have soared as people try to prevent themselves from the potentially deadly disease.

Mexican officials are hoping the 10-day shut-down will be enough to cover the two-day incubation period and the seven-day recovery of anyone who has the virus.

Mexico's first suspected case of the swine flu was detected in the remote farming village of La Gloria, where 5-year-old Edgar Hernandez contracted the disease nearly one month ago, authorities say.

"The most likely way that this young boy got the infection was from another person who had been in contact with the pigs," said Dr. Kathryn Edwards of Vanderbilt Medical Center.

More than 800 people in the town of 2,000 were infected, authorities say, but no deaths were reported. It took seven days for Mexico to confirm its first cases of swine flu, according to World Health Organization estimates.

Officials say it's still too early to determine how the disease spread from La Gloria into a global health emergency.

"It's a new virus, new virus combination, it does transmit from person to person and we already know it causes fatalities so we already have all the makings of a possible pandemic," Irwin Redlener of Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health said.

But Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC has said she believes the earliest onset of swine flu in the United States in this current outbreak happened March 28.

A quarter of the 50 million doses of Tamiflu stockpiled by the U.S. government has been released and the Obama administration has declared a public health emergency to free up the medicine and federal help to the states who need it.

But pharmacies in several states have been flooded with phone calls from concerned customers.

"Our first phone calls were doctors asking if we had Tamiflu," New York City pharmacist Yvonne Zampitella said. "They were prescribing it for their patients and family members."

Symptoms of the swine flu are similar to the regular flu, health officials say, including aching muscles, fever and fatigue. The virus appears to be responsive to medication.

"These drugs do not kill the virus, they help prevent its replication and therefore help reduce the symptoms, but they have to be taken within 48 hours so people have to recognize they have a serious illness, get to a doctor and start treatment," ABC News' Dr. Tim Johnson said on "World News" Monday.

"But we should not be telling people to go out and buy these drugs for use as preventive measure. We need to reserve drug for actual cases and outbreak."