「Toronto」のブログ記事一覧-gooブログはじめました！

【黄岚地产榜】一张图秒懂大多地区土地转让税

2022-12-25 03:09:25 | Toronto

本文由加拿大多伦多顶尖1%优秀口碑房地产经纪人Daisy黄岚原创于2016-07-06

电话(亦可用于添加微信) +1 647 899 0888

一直有客户咨询Daisy买卖房产的土地转让税到底需要多少。说起来这个计算公式还比较复杂。Daisy为此做了下面这张图，怎么算土地转让税一看就明白啦。

更多加拿大多伦多房产信息，请联系Daisy黄岚

Daisy 黄岚 – 加拿大多伦多资深专业房地产经纪大咖；著名金牌Broker；多伦多知名房地产顾问、投资专家、营销大拿；最高钻石奖、名人堂成就奖；律师出身、商业视角、权威分析、强大资源、钻石业绩，黄岚金牌多伦多房地产专家团队助您买房卖房更安心

手机/微信/電報/WhatsApp/LINE +1 647 899 0888

订阅【多伦多黄岚地产榜】公众号，查看高品质原创洞见

图文均为黄岚原创，欢迎转发、转载

【黄岚地产榜】以高品质原创、大数据分析、结构化制作、和专业化视角，为您呈现多村最优秀的地产原创宝典和知识信息平台

What will happen to Toronto home prices if interest rates rise to 20%?

2022-09-07 11:32:49 | Toronto

©Copyright by top real estate agent in Toronto/GTA, senior broker, Daisy Huang, July 2022.

What will happen to Toronto home prices if interest rates rise to 20%? This is the topic of today's episode.

As of June 2022, affected by the substantial interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Canada, although the average property price in the Greater Toronto Area is still up 5% year-on-year, the average price has fallen back to the 20- year baseline compared with the previous month.

What everyone is most concerned about at the moment is: How will interest rate hikes and the hike expectations affect the trend of property prices in Greater Toronto? Each period has its own era context and uncertainties. I do not intend to predict the future, but we can learn from experience and get some references from history. The time that is most similar to the current inflation environment can be traced back to more than 40 years ago, that is, the late 1970s and 1980s... Take the United States in the picture below as an example. At that time, double-digit inflation forced the Federal Reserve to push up the base interest rate to an incredible 20%. When we look back at the property price trend at that time, we are surprised to find that throughout the whole era of high interest rates, home prices kept a slow and steady rise.

The judgement of anything must be based on the understanding of its essence; Daisy Huang believes that the reason for this wave of inflation is not excessive demand, but a shortage of supply. The supply shortage is fundamentally a combination of several long-term factors and short-term triggers in recent years. The main triggers are:

Russian-Ukrainian war leads to global food and crude oil shortages
Growing pain caused by the re-distribution and re-shaping of the global supply chain under the momentum of de-globalization
As the world's factory for decades, China's recent waves of epidemics have led to disconnection, instability, increased costs, and reduced efficiency of global supply chains nodes in China

Of course, there are also long-term factors that have accumulated over a longer period of time: including the impact of “sustainable” strategies on the costs of energy and agriculture; many middle- and high-income countries, including China, have low birth rates, draining labor supply, and driving up labor costs.

It can be said that central banks have to raise interest rates to deal with the current inflation, and it can even be said that the central bank is trying to show that it is "doing something". But we must understand that raising interest rates is always a double-edged sword. While suppressing inflation, if you maintain high interest rates long, it is very likely to lead to economic recession. That is the reason we have historically seen central banks rush to cut rates once inflation has been effectively controlled.

Under the pressure of interest rate hikes and inflation, the consumer confidence index in US and Canada is declining. In other words, the negative effects of interest rate hikes have begun to appear. Once inflation is under control, the central bank is bound to cut interest rates. It’s worthwhile mentioning that inflation is calculated on a year-on-year basis, which is compared with the figures 12 months ago. It is conceivable that the price of prices under the suppression of interest rate hikes next year will basically rise to its full this year. Next year inflation rate will definitely decline, therefore it is self evident what the Central Bank of Canada will do for the sake if the economy when time comes.

At the same time, Canada's 8% inflation rate in June this year has pressured people to consider how to preserve their wealth. Holding high-quality assets, including real estate, is a good way to defend against currency depreciation. In fact, inflation and rising mortgage rate costs have been transmitted to rents in real-time, causing rents in the Greater Toronto Area to climb rapidly in recent months, rising 20% year-on-year in June. From the perspective of more than half a century of history, the increase in rent and changes in interest rates are highly correlated. In the early 1980s, when the US interest rate was 20%, the rent increase immediately exceeded 20%. Therefore, when property prices enter a period of saddle state, Toronto's home price/rent ratio will fall as rents rise, and become more healthy.

Next, let’s talk about asset allocation under current circumstances in the foreseeable future. The impact of the global COVID-19 outbreak on the stock market began in March 2020. If we regard that time as an equilibrium point of asset allocation, we can see from the following figure that whether the stock market or the housing market, after experiencing different increases in the epidemic, whether the Dow Jones index representing traditional industries, the high-tech Nasdaq index, or the housing price index in the Greater Toronto Area, their increase% have been adjusted and tend to be similar. It can be said that asset allocation around the world has stepped out of the noise caused by COVID and is back on track. One difference is that under the current conditions of high inflation and rising interest rates, the market has begun to avoid "storytelling" assets and prefer real and tangible assets, and this is why we call real estate as "real estate". GTA real estate rose 42% from pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, lower than Nasdaq's 45% and higher than the traditional industry Dow Jones Index's 35%.

In conclusion, inflation, rent, and interest rates all exert forces on property value from different directions, just like the forces and reaction forces in different directions in physics, and everyone will have his/her own theory of where the home price will go. However, the fundamentals of the real estate market will always be the attractiveness of the city to the general population. Toronto has been rated as the top ten most livable cities in the world by the Economist magazine for more than ten consecutive years. Who wouldn't want to buy a home in one of the world's most liveable cities, if they had the money? Combined with Canada's friendly immigration policies, these are the real market fundamentals.

A healthy and balanced market is the foundation of Toronto's long-term health in real estate. Whether buying or selling, smart participants need to have a good sense of reality, strategic awareness, and professional decision-making and execution capabilities...

In a high inflation environment, there is basically no room for a sharp drop in house prices, whether from the perspective of new house construction costs or pure wealth preservation
Higher interest rates do lead to lower purchasing power, but at the same time property is also an effective asset against currency depreciation
The cooling-off period of a property market is the best time to “hunt” for a good home at the best price, but it requires insight, professionalism, and decisiveness
Despite rising interest rates, current borrowing rates remain below 8% inflation
During the historically high interest rate years, house prices have not fallen sharply, but have continued to rise steadily
Positive mindset is the fundamental driving force for the survival and development of human beings from primitive society to the present. From the journey of history, all shorts are finally swallowed by longs

The cooling-off period of a real estate market is the most suitable for buy low. The next episode of “Daisy Realty List®” will share a batch of snapshots of the current Greater Toronto market, hoping to provide you with an edge. See you next time.

Top Producer in GTA Canada

Diamond and Platinum Award Winner

Hall of Fame for Real Estate Professionals

Daisy Huang's Cell Phone/WeChat/WhatsApp/LINE/Telegram
+1 647 899 0888

www.daisyrealty.ca

www.daisyrealty.ca/blog/

www.daisyrealty.ca/portfolio/

www.daisyrealty.ca/faq/

www.daisyrealty.ca/about-us/

www.daisyrealty.ca/contact-us/

Home Buying Strategy for 2022 – Toronto Housing Market Report & Outlook

2022-02-12 13:06:08 | Toronto

With the past year spent amid numerous uncertainties and changes, every year at this time of the year, "Daisy Realty List" publishes a previous-year-end analysis and outlook report of the Toronto real estate market based on big data analysis. I hope to help you grasp the pulse of the market, eliminate noise, focus on certain factors, take history as a mirror, and look forward into the new year.

Whether you live in North America, China, or other countries in the world, the experience of the past few years has been a lot of surprises and many unknowns to everyone, and the uncertainty of the world has intensified. To sum up last year, Daisy thinks that these are two key phrases: “The coexistence with Covid” and the “normalization of inflation”. In this macro-environment, the real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area in 2021 is revolving around one word: “rising”. Everyone has heard or experienced the rise in housing prices last year, and it is no longer news. Daisy Huang will tear down the factors with you today to take a detailed look at CT images of detached houses, townhouses, condos in GTA. This report will be of great help to master the market, and worth collection every year.

Let's take a look at the 3D breakdown of detached homes in the Greater Toronto Area in 2021:

There are 33 cities / towns in the Greater Toronto Area. The darker the color of the block in the figure below, the higher the average price; and the higher the column, the greater the price year-over-year increase%. As of the end of 2021, the average price of a detached home in the GTA has surpassed CAD $ 1.4 million, representing an annual increase of 25%; like last year, the outer suburbs of the Greater Toronto Area have experienced the largest increase due to low base prices.

Specifically, the top three detached house prices in the Greater Toronto Area are occupied by Central Toronto, King City, and Oakville. In terms of increase%, Uxbridge, Innisfil, and Oshawa in the east of the Greater Toronto Area ranked the top three, indicating that there is a strong demand from entry-level buyers and investment in detached houses around GTA.

In terms of townhouses, by the end of 2021, the average price of townhouses in the Greater Toronto Area has reached CAD $ 980,000, with a year-on-year increase of 22%. Area.

Townhouses also basically abide by the principle that the lower the total price, the greater the increase. The average prices of Toronto Central District, King City, and Markham are among the highest, the easternmost Clarington, and the northernmost East Gwillimbury and Essa recorded the top three increases.

Let's talk about Condo. The Condo market in GTA is mainly concentrated in Toronto and adjacent Markham, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, and Mississauga. In 2021, the average price of condos increased by 7%, and the average price was close to CAD $ 700,000. The average price of the traditional C12 luxury condominium area in Toronto almost reached CAD $ 1.4 million. In terms of increase, the E10 district, which is located in the easternmost part of Toronto, came out on top, reaching 22%.

Last year, three districts in Toronto's eastern suburbs ranked among the top three in terms of average price increase in Condo, while traditionally the three midtown luxury condominium blocks with the highest average price were C12 (including Horse Track), C09 (including Rose Valley) It is worth noting that the C12 and C09 districts had the highest increase in the previous year. It seems that last. In 2021, the price growth rate of condos in the outer peripheral of Toronto was higher than that in downtown Toronto.Daisy Huang expects that the price of condominiums in Toronto city center is going to pick up growth momentum in the short future.

Looking forward into 2022, Daisy Huang summarizes into four “unchanged” and one “uncertainty”. The four “unchanged” are:

Inflation expectations remain unchanged . Due to the high integration of global economies and the extremely fragile global supply chain as a result of decades of globalization, inflation is going to be around for quite a long time, and the recent rise in commodities has only added fuel In short, there is no doubt that future home prices will be fundamentally supported. In short, there is no doubt that future home prices will be fundamentally supported. by development costs.
Canada's immigration policy remains unchanged . Talent and human resources are the driving force of a country's economy. China's demographic dividend over the past 40 years has created a great economic miracle. Canada, as an immigrant country, is well aware of this. The immigrant population has been growing constantly. The number of immigrants reached a new high last year, all these immigrants form the strong demand fundamentals that support the real estate market.
The situation of “demand exceeds supply” remains unchanged . It is an industry-wide acknowledgement that supply shortage is the biggest bottleneck. The so-called policy measures such as restrictions on overseas buyers or vacancy tax etc have always been proven to be just a storm-in-a-teacup that government stirs just to show its presence, which cannot change the overall situation of “demand exceeds supply”.
The trend of coexistence with Covid remains unchanged . Most Western countries, including Canada, including many Asian countries (such as Singapore), have basically relaxed their mentality and accepted the reality of coexistence with Covid. Based on this, Daisy Huang predicts that in 2022 , Canadian economic activities will be significantly more active than that in 2021, which will also have a positive impact on Toronto and Canada's real estate.

The “uncertainty” mentioned by Daisy Huang above mainly refers to the uncertainty of interest rate hike expectations and the effect of interest rate hikes. The largest inflation in 40 years has forced the central bank to issue frequent interest rate hike warnings. Daisy Huang also believes However, raising interest rates is a double-edged sword. The current global market is lack of supply and manpower, not demand expansion. Therefore, the rate and pace. of interest rate hikes must be handled cautiously, otherwise, there is a great possibility of triggering more supply shortages which will lead to “stagflation” – that is: economic stagnation and inflation at the same time.The central banks of the world are all led by smart people who in fact are not willing to raise interest rates, but the current inflation figures are too ugly, and they just have to do something. Of course, raising interest rates is not necessarily a If house prices always go up rapidly in double digits, it will be unhealthy. A cool-off period for consolidation and price re-confirmation is essential to the market's long-term health. Based on the historical trajectory of the past two decades, a healthy average annual housing price in Canada, excluding inflation, is around 6%.A cool-off period for consolidation and price re-confirmation is essential to the market's long-term health. Based on the historical trajectory of the past two decades, a healthy average annual housing price in Canada, excluding inflation, is around 6%.A cool-off period for consolidation and price re-confirmation is essential to the market's long-term health. Based on the historical trajectory of the past two decades, a healthy average annual housing price in Canada, excluding inflation, is around 6%.

In conclusion, four “unchanged” factors are positive for housing prices, while one “uncertain” factor is neutral for the housing market and good for its long-term sustainable growth. Daisy Huang forecasts that the Toronto property market in the new year will be dominated by price consolidation and re-confirmation, meaning both buyers and sellers can trade more calmly, the market will still come out healthy and go upward, and there are also quite a lot of opportunities along the way.

That's it for now, thank you for your time, see you at "Daisy Realty List" next issue.

Originally written by Daisy Huang, top real estate agent in Toronto and GTA, senior broker. High Value. Delivered.