news20091029gdn1

[News] from [guardian.co.uk]

[Environment >Climate change]
Climate change threatens Australia's coastal lifestyle, report warns
Australian government environmental committee report warns that thousands of miles of coastline are under threat from rising sea levels and suggests banning people from living in vulnerable areas
Toni O'Loughlin in Sydney
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 27 October 2009 16.50 GMT Article history

Beach culture is as much part of the Australian identity as the bush and barbecues, but that could have to change according to a government report that raises the unsettling prospect of banning its citizens from coastal regions at risk of rising seas.

The report, from a parliamentary climate change committee, said that AUS$150bn (£84bn) worth of property was at risk from rising sea levels and more frequent storms. With 80% of Australians living along the coastline, the report warns that "the time to act is now''.

Australia has no national coastal plan despite the prospect of losing large swaths of coastal land as each centimetre rise in sea levels is expected to carve a metre or more off the shoreline. If sea levels rise 80cm by 2100, some 711,000 homes, businesses and properties, which sit less than 6m above sea level and lie within 3km of the coast, will be vulnerable to flooding, erosion, high tides and surging storms.

It argues that Australia needs a national policy to respond to sea level rise brought on by global warming, which could see people forced to abandon homes and banned from building at the beachside, according to the committee on climate change, water, environment and the arts.

The prime minister, Kevin Rudd, said the report was a reminder that "Australia has more to lose through continued inaction on climate change" than most other countries. "The real cost for Australia of continued inaction on climate change is deep and enduring and damaging to our economy and damaging to the nation's environment," Rudd said.

Skirmishes between residents and local councils are already erupting up and down the coast over erosion by the sea. On the far north coast of New South Wales, the state government has intervened to allow residents in the Byron shire council to build seal walls to protect their homes from rising sea levels. A similar battle is being waged further south at Taree. Meanwhile insurance companies are refusing to insure properties in seaside towns.

Among the report's 47 recommendations are that the government could consider "forced retreats", and prohibiting the "continued occupation of the land or future building development on the property due to sea hazard".

Some members of the conservative Liberal-National party coalition, which voted down the Rudd government's carbon emissions trading scheme earlier this year, remain sceptical that a problem exists. Liberal MP Tony Abbott, a senior member of the coalition and leadership contender, said there was no reason for alarm. "When it comes to rising sea levels I'm alert but I can't say that I'm particularly alarmed. The fact is that sea levels have risen along the NSW coast by more than 20cm over the last century. Has anyone noticed it? No they haven't. Obviously an 80cm rise in sea levels would be more serious but I'm confident that we have the resources to cope," Abbott told ABC news.

How much sea level could rise this century with increasing temperatures is an open question. The much-quoted 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said it could be up to 59cm, though warned that higher increases could not be ruled out. The IPCC said not enough was known about the way ice sheets break up to put a reliable figure on their contribution. Some estimates predict a 1-2m rise by 2100.

The Australian government report, Managing Our Coastal Zone in a Changing Climate, followed an 18-month enquiry. It said the country's current coastal management policy is fragmented, and authorities need to adopt a national policy to coordinate new coastal building codes and relocation and evacuation plans. Australia must examine the legal liability and insurance cover associated with property loss and damage due to climate change, improved early warning systems for extreme seas, and work to prevent the spread of tropical diseases such as dengue fever, it added.

"The key message that emerged from the inquiry is the need for national leadership in managing Australia's coastal zone in the context of climate change," Jennie George, a government MP and committee chair, said in launching the report on Tuesday. "This is an issue of national significance."

The sub-tropical state of Queensland was the most at risk, with almost 250,000 buildings vulnerable. Next was the most populous state, New South Wales (NSW), with more than 200,000. Coastal flooding and erosion already costs NSW around AUS$200m (£112m) a year.

The report called for a national policy which could see government authorities prohibit occupation of land or future building development on property due to sea hazards. It called for building codes, including cyclone building codes, to be revised to increase resilience to climate change.

Alan Stokes, the executive director of the Sydney-based National Seachange taskforce, which represents coastal community councils across Australia, says banning development in certain areas is necessary. "There's no doubt Australia will remain and continue to be a coastal community," he said. "But we may have to be a bit more considerate about which parts of the coast we develop further and which ones we don't."

news20091029gdn2

[News] from [guardian.co.uk]

[Environment >Climate change]
Climate change will devastate Africa, top UK scientist warns
Professor Sir Gordon Conway warns continent will face intense droughts, famine, disease and floods
John Vidal, environment editor
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 28 October 2009 17.41 GMT Article history

One of the world's most influential scientists has warned that climate change could devastate Africa, predicting an increase in catastrophic food shortages.

Professor Sir Gordon Conway, the outgoing chief scientist at the UK's Department for International Development, and former head of the philanthropic Rockefeller Foundation, argued in a new scientific paper (pdf) that the continent is already warming faster than the global average and that people living there can expect more intense droughts, floods and storm surges.

There will be less drinking water, diseases such as malaria will spread and the poorest will be hit the hardest as farmland is damaged in the coming century, Conway wrote.

"There is already evidence that Africa is warming faster than the global average, with more warm spells and fewer extremely cold days. Northern and southern Africa are likely to become as much as 4C hotter over the next 100 years, and [will become ] much drier," he said.

Conway predicts hunger on the continent could increase dramatically in the short term as droughts and desertification increase, and climate change affects water supplies. "Projected reductions in crop yields could be as much as 50% by 2020 and 90% by 2100," the paper says.

Conway held out some hope that east Africa and the Horn of Africa, presently experiencing its worst drought and food shortages in 20 years, will become wetter. But he said that the widely hoped-for 8-15% increase in African crop yields as a direct result of more CO2 in the atmosphere may fail to materialise.

"The latest analyses of more realistic field trials suggest the benefits of carbon dioxide may be significantly less than initially thought," he said.

Instead, population growth combined with climate change would mean countries face extreme problems growing more food: "We are going to need an awful lot more crop production, 70-100% more food will be needed than we have at present. Part of [what is needed] is getting more organic matter into Africa's soils, which are very depleted, but we also have to improve water availability and produce crops that yield more, and use nitrogen and water more efficiently."

Sir Gordon, now professor of international development at Imperial College London, oversaw a major expansion in the UK government's support for GM research in developing countries, and said that new technologies must be part of the African response to tackling hunger and droughts. "In certain circumstances we will need GM crops because we wont be able to find the gene naturally. GM may be the speediest and most efficient way to increase yields. Drought tolerance is governed by a range of genes. It is a big problem for breeders of [both] GM and ordinary plants", he said.

He called for more research into climate change. "There is much that we do not know. The Sahel may get wetter or remain dry. The flow of the Nile may be greater or less. We do not know if the fall in agricultural production will be very large or relatively small. The best assumption is that many regions of Africa will suffer more droughts and floods with greater intensity and frequency. We have to plan for the certainty that more extreme events will occur in the future but with uncertain regularity".


[Environment >Energy efficiency]
Powermeter: Google's household energy monitor arrives in UK
Online tool allows householders to monitor energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, thereby reducing consumption and saving money
Adam Vaughan
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 28 October 2009 05.00 GMT Article history

Google may be best known for helping you find things on the web, but the online search company's latest move is a bid to make futuristic low-energy eco-homes a reality.

Launching for the first time in the UK today, Google Powermeter is an online tool that allows householders to monitor their home's energy use and greenhouse gas emissions via the web, and so reduce their consumption and save money.

Already being trialled in the US, the free energy-monitoring service uses new smart meters, or an add-on clip for conventional meters, to send electricity consumption to a personalised iGoogle web page. Users will be able to check their energy use anywhere in the world via a computer or mobile phone.

The idea is that householders will be persuaded to stop overfilling kettles, switch appliances off standby and turn off unused lights after being confronted with their daily energy use. Studies by organisations including the government's Energy Saving Trust have suggested such energy monitoring leads people to cut their bills by 3-15%, potentially saving the average UK household £75 a year.

Google Powermeter is itself free, but will initially be available to British homeowners either by buying a gadget called AlertMe Energy or switching to first:utility, a small energy supplier. AlertMe's device works using a broadband hub and a clip for your electricity meter. It can be bought from today for £69 with a £3 monthly subscription fee. First:utility customers will have to wait until next month to try the service.

Powermeter works by showing graphs of a user's energy consumption over time – by day, week or month – and comparing it to their previous usage and regional averages. Ben Coppin, an employee at AlertMe who has trialled it for the last six months, said using the software had led him to switch off an unnecessary immersion heater that was costing £300-400 annually, and to halve his tumble dryer's energy use by switching from its highest setting to its lowest.

Jens Redmer, director for business development at Google, said Powermeter's value came from "immediate feedback". He told of testers in California discovering pool pumps they hadn't used for years but that were draining energy, and one woman who saved her apartment from burning down by detecting a burning toaster while at work and alerting a neighbour.

Redmer added that a social element could be a next step for the service, which keeps users' energy usage private. "In the future, one new feature could be friendly competition – why can't I challenge my friends to say I'll save 10% over a year, and then trigger alerts when they're falling behind, so I could ping them to encourage them?"

Pilgrim Beart, the founder and CEO of AlertMe, said: "Many consumers feel they can't protect themselves from rising energy costs or do anything to stop climate change. However, more than a quarter of all energy use happens in our homes and this gives consumers the power to monitor, control, and reduce the energy they use." Heating and power for UK homes account for 27% of the UK's carbon footprint.

Powermeter's move into the UK puts it a step ahead of Microsoft's rival project, Hohm, which is in a US-only beta trial and works by creating an online dashboard of energy data from partnered utility companies. Unlike Google's software, it covers both electricity and gas use, and you can enter your usage manually.

Enthusiasts have previously developed kits using open-source code that allow homes to post their energy usage to Twitter, and several companies sell energy monitors – such as the OWL and Wattson – which show real-time electricity consumption on wireless handheld displays. One such gadget available in the US, the TED 5000, already works with Powermeter.

The UK government is consulting on the specification for smart meters – whether they should feature wireless displays, for example – which will be fitted in every home by 2020.

news20091029gdn3

[News] from [guardian.co.uk]

[Environment >Climate change]
Thirst for oil poses threat to US national security, says military adviser
Democratic senators today pivoted from the economy to national security in push for climate change bill
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 28 October 2009 18.49 GMT Article history

America's thirst for oil is a gathering threat to its national security – and the risk will grow further as the world's population touches 7 billion, a military adviser to the Pentagon told the Senate today.

In a second day of debate on energy, Democratic senators today pivoted from the economy to national security to try to make the case for a climate change bill.

The threat to Americans' security ranged from the here and now – with troops in Afghanistan and Iraq tied down by their reliance on gas-guzzling equipment – to years into the future when extreme temperatures and rising sea levels could lead to a widespread social breakdown.

"We have never before on this planet had close to 7 billion people which we will have in 2011. We have never had the unprecedented level of per capita energy use multiplied by that 7 billion people," Dennis McGinn, a member of the Military Advisory Board, composed of senior retired admirals and generals, told the Senate. "We have a whole host of indicators, warnings and trends that tells us climate change is bad for national security."

He said the country would face risks on multiple fronts. "America's current energy posture constitutes a serious and urgent threat to national security – militarily, diplomatically and economically."

The Pentagon is already beginning to focus more acutely on the threat posed by climate change.

Military research labs are exploring new energy-saving devices, and other ways of conserving fuel in the battlefield. The conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have made planners acutely conscious that fuel dependence is putting US forces at risk. The US marines corps recently ordered an energy audit of its operations in Afghanistan, in a bid to reduce enormous fuel costs.

"We are tied down by fuel. Fuel is a real day-today concern for our forces in the field who are tethered to that fossil fuel tail," said Kathleen Hicks, the deputy undersecretary of defence for strategy.

The US military is beginning to focus more intensely on the threat posed by climate change.

Hicks also told the Senate that global warming was emerging as a dangerous "accelerant" – fuelling conflicts and speeding the breakdown of fragile states.

It also created opportunities for extremist groups such as al-Qaida.

Progress on the climate change bill is seen as essential a to a successful outcome at the international meeting on carbon reduction in Copenhagen in December.

The White House has also stepped up its efforts to shepherd the bill through the Senate. This week's hearings, the formal start of the legislative process, were carefully coordinated with the White House.

Obama yesterday toured a solar facility in Florida and announced the award of some $3.5bn (£2.1bn) in grants to modernise America's electrical grid. Today, the White House sponsored a public forum on energy.

The White House and Democratic leaders are also trying to rally support around the climate change bill in the Senate – in part by bowing to Republican demands for a larger place for nuclear power.

Barbara Boxer, the co-author of the proposed legislation, said today she would press ahead to get her environment and public works committee for early approval of the draft – despite opposition from Republicans and even a powerful Democrat.

"I think there will be good news out of the committee this week, so stay tuned," she said.

news20091029nn1

[naturenews] from [nature.com]

[naturenews]
Published online 26 October 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/4611185a
News
University tightens oversight of sensitive research
Conviction prompts rethink of data rules.
By Elie Dolgin

University administrators are looking to sharpen their monitoring of export violations, officials said last week at a meeting of the National Council of University Research Administrators in Washington DC.

The move comes in the wake of the first US conviction, last year, of a university professor for trafficking military-sensitive information. In July, John Reece Roth, formerly an engineer at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, was sentenced to four years in prison for breaching the Arms Export Control Act; he remains free pending an appeal. Roth had shared sensitive information relating to a plasma-guidance system for unmanned aircraft with a graduate student from Iran and another from China. The case has triggered anxiety among many academics, who fear that they could be punished for unintentional slips (see Nature 461, 156; 2009).

"Now that the faculty members know the facts of the Roth case, they don't want to be individually challenged; they want the support of the university," says David Brady, director of export and secure research compliance at Virginia Polytechnic Institute in Blacksburg.

Roth's project "slipped through the cracks" of the university's monitoring system, says Robin Witherspoon, export-control officer for the University of Tennessee's office of compliance. Witherspoon says that the university now has electronic flagging systems in place to alert her office to suspicious financial- or travel-related dealings with other countries, as well as any potentially problematic grant proposals or contracts. Witherspoon has also instigated training programmes to educate researchers about export control of sensitive data or technology.

{“It helps us develop policies and procedures so that professors know they can be targeted.”}

Christopher Golomb, a special agent with the FBI counterintelligence division in Washington DC, says that in light of the Roth conviction, the bureau is also adjusting the ways that it interacts with academic institutions. Last year, the agency conducted a survey with the Federation of American Scientists to assess negative views of law enforcement held by some in the scientific community. The FBI is also engaged in two academic alliances with university and college presidents. "It's a great lesson learned," says Golomb. "It helps us develop policies and procedures so that professors know that they can be targeted."

The White House has ordered a review of current US export control regulations.


[naturenews]
Published online 26 October 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/4611180a
News
African science feels the pinch
Recession dampens donors' enthusiasm.
By Linda Nordling

DURBAN

Broken hopes: research projects between African universities and other countries are being cut back.R. Fremson/New York Times/Redux/eyevineThe global financial crisis is hampering plans to revive African science, researchers and policy-makers said last week in Durban, South Africa. Slashed donor funding, slowing foreign investment and competing budget priorities are the main culprits; hardest hit are the poorest countries and continent-wide projects.

"Our countries are in crisis, philanthropists are in crisis and the aid agencies are in crisis," Jean-Pierre Ezin, commissioner for science, technology and human resources for the African Union, said at a conference organized by TWAS, the academy of sciences for the developing world, based in Trieste, Italy.

In 2007, an African presidential summit on science saw funders falling over each other to offer assistance on science and technology programmes. Today the funding situation has changed dramatically.

The Swedish international development agency SIDA said last month that it would cut funding for its research cooperation programmes with developing countries by 20%, from an estimated 1.05 billion kronor (US$150 million) to 800 million kronor. Britain's Wellcome Trust, which funds several medical research projects in Africa, cut overall grants for 2008–09 by £30 million (US$50 million), to £590 million. Many people expect aid levels to fall this year as a result of the financial crunch, although the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says effects are more likely to be felt in future years, as 2009 aid budgets were mostly finalized before the recession hit.

Not all the news is bad. Several American philanthropists, including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, said earlier this year that they would not cut research funding. The Gates Foundation even said that it would increase grants, despite a 20% drop in assets last year.

Still, Ezin says that the African Union won't be able to fulfil all its planned science activities for 2009 and 2010. Instead, his department will prioritize the Pan-African University, a network of existing African institutions that will train PhDs and carry out research, and a grant programme for African researchers. But a programme to train science teachers, he says, may have to be scaled back.

University researchers are also feeling the pinch. In Senegal, a plan to expand the country's university system has come to a standstill. "The crisis came and everything stopped," says Lamine Ndiaye, a former vice-chancellor of the University of Gaston Berger in Saint-Louis, Senegal. Funding has dried up from the government and from France, the country's main development partner, he says.

Countries that don't depend on aid are also struggling. In Nigeria, the drop in demand for oil and gas, exacerbated by a stricken banking sector, means that private donations — a major source of funding for Nigerian universities — are slowing. "In the past, a conference like this would have a lot of Nigerians coming, supported by industry grants. We don't find many today," says Oye Ibidapo-Obe, president of the Nigerian Academy of Science in Lagos.

Nigeria's government won't pick up the slack left by the drop in private investments, Ibidapo-Obe adds. "Research is not seen as the major driver of the economy."

Even South Africa, the continent's economic powerhouse, is facing a lean year. The country's coffers have been depleted by its worst financial performance since the end of apartheid 15 years ago, says Naledi Pandor, the science minister.

Pandor says she has been assured by the country's treasury that her department won't face cuts in the mid-term budget, due for release as Nature went to press. But the dip in the country's growth rate means that the department, which was given 4.2 billion rand (US$560 million) for 2009–10, may have to put some planned projects on the back burner. Probable cuts include a 700-million-rand semi-commercial titanium test facility, which could be either delayed or dropped completely.

Recent progress in building up African science could be lost, warns Mohammed Hassan, executive director of TWAS. In the 1980s, African governments responded to a steep economic decline by cutting their higher-education budgets, he notes, and Africa went from having some of the best universities in the developing world to some of the worst.

Although the world economy is starting to recover, the worst may be yet to come for Africa, says John Muyonga, a food scientist at the University of Makerere in Uganda. His institution depends "close to 100%" on donor funding, he says. Most of his colleagues have grants that cover several years, and may struggle to find new funding when these grants run out. "We may have more impact in 2010 than in 2009," he adds.

news20091029nn2

[naturenews] from [nature.com]

[naturenews]
Published online 26 October 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/4611181a
News
Woo Suk Hwang convicted, but not of fraud
Cloning pioneer gets two years for embezzlement and bioethics breach.
By David Cyranoski

Cloning pioneer Woo Suk Hwang was sentenced to two years in prison at the Seoul Central District Court on 26 October, after being found guilty of embezzlement and bioethical violations but cleared of fraud.

Supporters of Hwang, a former professor at Seoul National University in South Korea, were pleased with the sentence, which is suspended for three years and half the length sought by prosecutors. The prosecution plans to appeal.

Hwang was once fêted for creating human stem-cell lines using cloned embryos derived from patients suffering from spinal-cord injury and other disorders (W. S. Hwang et al. Science 303, 1669–1674; 2004 and W. S. Hwang et al. Science 308, 1777–1783; 2005). The accomplishment, which promised an endless supply of stem cells genetically matched to patients, turned out to be bogus.

Hwang admitted in January 2006 to falsifying data, while maintaining that he had the ability to do what he had claimed. In South Korea, scientific fraud would be illegal only if Hwang had used fraudulent data to gain grants. Prosecutors argued that he duped two companies, SK Group and NongHyup, into supplying research funds. But according to media reports, the court rejected the allegations on the grounds that the firms provided money without expecting to benefit.

The court did, however, find Hwang guilty of buying human eggs in violation of the country's bioethics law and of embezzling 830 million won (US$700,000) of government money.

The Korea Times reported that the light sentence was motivated by judge Ki-ryul Bae's sympathy for Hwang's apparent dedication to Korean biotechnology and his stated remorse. Hwang will now be able to focus on his research career, which he has been rebuilding since he was indicted in May 2006 (see Nature 461, 1035; 2009).

Many researchers are not ready to welcome Hwang back. "It was not just one moment of weakness — the degree of manipulation of the goodwill of people, particularly fellow scientists, made it more," says Alan Colman, a stem-cell scientist at the Institute of Medical Biology in Singapore. "The sad thing is that it's clear he is a talented experimentalist." Colman argues that Hwang should not be eligible for research funding from public sources for a prolonged period.

Researcher Ryuzo Torii of the Shiga University of Medical Science in Japan used large amounts of grant money, time and monkey eggs trying to reproduce Hwang's technique in non-human primates in 2004 and 2005. He says that forgiving Hwang and recognizing him as a researcher would be "a mistake".

news20091029bbc1

[One-Minute World News] from [BBC NEWS]

[Business]
Page last updated at 13:21 GMT, Thursday, 29 October 2009
US economy is growing once again
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.5% between July and September, its first expansion in more than a year, official data has shown.

Analysts say the growth was helped by the cash for clunkers car scrappage scheme, and the fear is growth will now fall after this ended in August.

The US economy was also lifted by President Obama's $787bn (£480bn) economic stimulus plan.

But with unemployment still high, the ongoing recovery is set to be slow.
Global good news

The economic growth between July and September indicates that the US has likely exited a recession that first started in December 2007.

{{This recovery is being led by federal spending and gradual recovery in consumer spending and business investment}
John Silvia, Wells Fargo}

However, the official confirmation still has to come from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the agency which considers a number of factors in coming to its decision.

The US economy last expanded in the second quarter of 2008, when it grew 2.4%.

BBC chief economics correspondent Hugh Pym said the 3.5% growth was more than the 3.3% expected by most commentators.

"The sheer scale of the stimulus in the US has made a big difference, it was much bigger in percentage terms than that in the UK," he said.

"That the US, the powerhouse of the world economy is growing once again, is good news for the global economy has a whole."

Numerous boosts

The figures from the Commerce Department showed that a number of factors helped to lift the economy during the third quarter.

{{I've been out of work a few months here or there but never like this}
Unemployed American Jon Polis}

Spending on durable manufactured products soared at an annualised rate of 22.3%, the highest quarterly amount since 2001, led primarily by the impact of the cash for clunkers scheme lifting car sales.

The housing market also improved, with spending on housing products up 23.4%, its largest quarterly jump in 23 years.

Analysts said this big leap was sparked by the government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time house buyers.

Meanwhile, total government spending was up 7.9%, as the wider stimulus spending continued to take effect.

In addition, exports were also up strongly, increasing 21.4%, the biggest rise since 1996.

'Distorted by stimulus'

"It's good to have the economy growing again," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.

"But we don't think that rate of growth is sustainable because it is distorted by all the government stimulus.

"The challenge here is to get organic growth - growth that isn't helped by fiscal steroids."

Analysts cautious about the slow nature of the US economic recovery point to the fact that the unemployment rate currently stands at 9.8%, and that the labour market traditionally lags behind any wider economic recovery.

They also highlight the fact that the big car firms have already reported a sharp fall in September sales following the conclusion of the popular $3bn cash for clunkers scheme at the end of August.

"You can say that the recession is over, but it sure won't feel like that," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

"There is a lot of downward momentum that isn't going to go."


[Europe]
Page last updated at 13:00 GMT, Thursday, 29 October 2009
Denmark in climate deal warning
{Sweden's PM (r) wants compromise to find a deal on climate aid figures}
Denmark's prime minister says he does not think a comprehensive deal on climate change will be finalised at a December summit in Copenhagen.

Lars Loekke Rasmussen spoke ahead of an EU summit at which climate change will be one of the main topics.

EU leaders must also decide how to secure the Czech Republic's ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

The treaty would create a full-time EU president, and leaders are expected to discuss who could fill the role.

December's eagerly anticipated United Nations' Copenhagen Climate Summit will attempt to hammer out a new global climate treaty to replace the UN Kyoto Protocol.

But Mr Rasmussen said he did not believe a final deal on reducing greenhouse emissions could be reached at the meeting.

{{The main story will revolve around what can be gleaned about Tony Blair's chances to become the first President of the European Council}
Gavin Hewitt}

"We do not think it will be possible to decide all the finer details for a legally binding regime," he said.

However, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said that even if no treaty is signed in Copenhagen, he was confident a political agreement could be reached there.

"We are not lowering expectations," he said. "If we can agree on four political elements, then that could be a hallmark of success on climate change."

At the Brussels summit, European leaders will try to iron out their differences over how much each EU member should pay to help developing nations deal with the effects of global warming.

{{EU SUMMIT AGENDA}
> Thursday pm: Climate change
> Thursday dinner: Lisbon Treaty
> Friday: Conclusions, including economy and illegal immigration}

The European Commission has recommended EU nations pay up to 15bn euros ($22bn; £13bn) a year from 2013 to developing nations to help them cope with climate change.

But aid and environmental groups have said Europe should be prepared to pay more than twice as much.

A firm EU commitment on funding for developing states is widely seen as essential to agreeing even the framework of a new treaty.

Talks last week on how to fund such aid collapsed as EU finance ministers disagreed over how to share the costs.

'Risk of deadlock'

On the eve of the summit, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency, urged his counterparts to compromise on agreeing climate aid figures to developing nations.

"We have a risk for a clear deadlock in the negotiations," he said.

"The emerging economies are looking for financing and without it they will not make the required reduction targets."

The BBC's Oana Lungescu in Brussels says it is unclear how much money the EU is willing to put on the table and who should pay what.

{{EU 20-20-20 TARGETS}
> 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020
> 20% of energy to come from renewable sources by 2020
> 20% increase in energy efficiency by 2020}

Poland and other Eastern and Central European countries say they are too poor to contribute much, our correspondent says.

The EU is committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 and by up to 30% if other countries join in.

Developing nations have been arguing that industrialised countries should carry most of the burden, because they are responsible for the majority of CO2 emissions.

The two-day Brussels meeting must also try to seal an agreement for the ratification of the Lisbon reform treaty with the Czech Republic.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus is the only EU leader who has yet to sign the treaty, demanding an opt-out from the treaty's Charter of Fundamental Rights.

The Eurosceptic Mr Klaus fears that charter could be used by ethnic Germans to reclaim land they lost in the Czech Republic after World War II.

The Czech Constitutional Court is expected to rule next week on whether the treaty complies with the country's constitution, clearing the way for Mr Klaus' decision.

EU leaders are also expected to discuss who will fill the post of full-time president that the Lisbon Treaty would create.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Luxembourg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker have been touted as the leading candidates for the job.

news20091029bbc2

[One-Minute World News] from [BBC NEWS]

[Middle East]
Page last updated at 13:10 GMT, Thursday, 29 October 2009
Iran 'reply' on nuclear fuel deal
{The IAEA has proposed exporting most of Iran's low-enriched uranium}
Iran has delivered a response on a UN-backed proposal seen as crucial to easing diplomatic tensions over its nuclear programme, Iranian media say.

Under the plan, most of Iran's enriched uranium would be sent abroad to be turned into fuel rods for research use.

Iran's president said earlier his country was ready to co-operate with the proposal.

Iran says it is enriching uranium for fuel, but the US and its allies have accused it of seeking nuclear weapons.

A report on Al-Alam TV on Thursday said Iran had given its response on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plan, but gave no details.

Iran's Isna news agency quoted Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, as saying only that Iranian "economic and technical concerns regarding the supply of fuel for the research reactor [in Tehran] should be addressed."

{{NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE}
> Mined uranium ore is purified and reconstituted into solid form known as yellowcake
> Yellowcake is converted into a gas by heating it to about 64C (147F)
> Gas is fed through centrifuges, where its isotopes separate and the process is repeated until uranium is enriched
> Low-level enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel
> Highly enriched uranium can be used in nuclear weapons}

Observers in Tehran say the government is expected to demand significant changes to the IAEA proposal while accepting the overall framework.

According to a report by the pro-government newspaper Java, those changes could include shipping low-enriched uranium abroad in stages rather than all at once.

Also on Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad described the IAEA proposal as a move from "confrontation to co-operation" by western powers.

"We welcome fuel exchange, nuclear co-operation, building of power plants and reactors and we are ready to co-operate," Mr Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech in the city of Mashhad.

However, he also said Iran would "not retreat even an iota" over its right to develop a nuclear programme.

The IAEA has proposed exporting most of Iran's enriched uranium to Russia and France, where it would be converted into fuel before being returned to Iran.

The plan was agreed by the US, Russia and France after talks in Vienna last week, but Iran missed a deadline to respond on Friday.

For Western powers, the proposal would buy time while they press for a definitive solution to the stand-off over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Meanwhile, a delegation of IAEA inspectors returned after visiting Iran's recently-revealed second uranium enrichment plant at Fordo, near Qom.

"We had a good trip," said delegation head Herman Nackaerts.

He did not answer specific questions about any of the data that was gathered, saying it had yet to be analysed.


[Science & Environment]
Page last updated at 00:36 GMT, Thursday, 29 October 2009
Tuna ban 'justified' by science
The bluefin is highly prized for many dishes, notably sushi
Banning trade in Atlantic bluefin tuna is justified by the extent of their decline, an analysis by scientists advising fisheries regulators suggests.
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas' (ICCAT) advisers said stocks are probably less than 15% of their original size.

The analysis has delighted conservation groups, which have warned that over-fishing risks the species' survival.

ICCAT meets to consider the report in 10 days' time.

The analysis was triggered by Monaco's recent proposal to ban international trade in the Atlantic bluefin under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) - a proposal that has gathered support from several other European countries.

{{ICCAT's track record isn't too good, but they could surprise us}
Dr Sue Lieberman
Pew Environment Group}

"What's needed to save the stocks is a suspension of fishing activity and a suspension of international commercial trade," said Sergi Tudela, head of fisheries with the environmental group WWF for the Mediterranean region.

"We must stop mercilessly exploiting this fragile natural resource until stocks show clear signs of rebound and until sustainable management and control measures are firmly put in place."

The body charged with regulating catches of the southern bluefin, a closely related species, has just approved 20% quota cuts across the board.

Quota excesses

For a number of years, ICCAT has set quotas higher than scientists' recommendations.

The pressure this puts on stocks has been compounded by illegal fishing for this valuable species, which according to some estimates adds 30% to the official quota.

Last year, an independent report concluded that ICCAT's management of tuna was a "disgrace", blaming member countries for not accepting scientific advice and for turning a blind eye to their fleets' illegal activities.

The report recommended interim closure of the Mediterranean fishery, where most bluefin are caught - a measure that won backing from the US.

Frustrated by what it saw as ICCAT's inability to control the problem, Monaco's government - supported by conservation groups - submitted its CITES proposal.

The proposal will be heard at the CITES meeting in March. If enacted and enforced, it would severely hamper the trade.

Atlantic bluefin tuna are mainly caught from countries around the Mediterranean Sea, but most of the meat is consumed in Asia, particularly Japan.

Japan has previously argued that commercial fish species should be controlled by bodies like ICCAT rather than CITES.

"The right thing would be to impose a zero quota," said Sue Lieberman, director of international policy for the Pew Environment Group.

"It wouldn't be forever - stocks will recover, but not at current rates of catch."

ICCAT's scientific committee considered different ways of analysing the decline - whether to start from estimates of how many bluefin there were before industrial fishing began, or from the largest stocks reliably recorded, and according to different rates of reproduction.

They concluded that whichever way the data is cut, it is 96% likely that numbers in the east Atlantic and Mediterranean are now less than 15% of their pre-industrial-fishing size.

CITES guidance suggests this would trigger a trade ban for a slow-reproducing fish species.

For the western Atlantic stock, subject to much smaller catches, the figure is 93%.

At its forthcoming meeting in Brazil, ICCAT delegates will decide whether to place new restrictions on catches.

"ICCAT's track record isn't too good," commented Dr Lieberman, "but they could surprise us."

Usually, ICCAT makes reports such as this one publically available.

But because of its "controversial and politically-charged nature", the commission asked members to "consider refraining from distributing this report" before the Brazil meeting, and it is not clear if and when it will be posted on the organisation's website.

news20091029cnn1

[Top stories] from [CNN.com]

[U.S.]
Economy finally back in gear
Government says GDP grew 3.5% in third quarter, ending a year-long string of declines and coming in better than forecasts.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 29, 2009: 9:31 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter, ending a string of declines over four quarters that resulted in the most severe slide since the Great Depression.

The growth, reported by the government Thursday morning, was slightly stronger than expectations. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 3.2% growth in gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity. The economy shrank at a 0.7% rate in the second quarter.

The positive GDP report is one more sign that the economy has likely pulled out of the deep recession that started in December 2007.

The reading by itself doesn't mark an end to the recession; the economy actually grew in the second quarter of 2008. (The National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially dates the beginning and end of recessions, is not expected to declare that the current recession has ended until sometime in 2010.)

But the stronger-than-expected growth is likely to lead more economists to declare that the economy hit bottom earlier this year and turned higher at some point in the summer.

A rebuilding of inventories by businesses that had slashed production and jobs over the past year was a major contributor to the growth in the third quarter. So was a rebound in auto sales, which were helped by the government's Cash for Clunkers program. The economic stimulus package, with public works projects and aid to state and federal governments, also boosted growth.

But the fact that much of the gain was from these short-term programs raises some concerns about whether the economy can keep growing over the next few quarters.

There were other signs of growth that were more encouraging, however. Consumer spending rose at a 3.4% rate, the biggest increase in nearly three years. Spending by consumers accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

Housing, which has been a drag on the economy since the popping of the real estate bubble in early 2006, contributed to the economy's growth as well. Investments in residential real estate surged 23% in the quarter.
Other reports in recent weeks have shown that housing sales, home prices and new home construction rose during the quarter. But the housing market also got a lift from the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers that is due to expire next month.


[World]
U.N cutting staff in Afghanistan
October 29, 2009 -- Updated 1140 GMT (1940 HKT)

{Afghan police rush to the site of a Taliban attack on a hotel in Kabul on Wednesday.}
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
> U.N. official cites security concerns after Taliban attack that killed five
> Non-essential staff ordered to be ready to leave Afghanistan
> Taliban has threatened to disrupt November 7 presidential runoff
> U.N. reduced staff before August 20 election

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Non-essential U.N. staff across Afghanistan have been ordered to pack their bags and be ready for evacuation after a deadly attack on a U.N. guesthouse, a senior U.N. official said Thursday.

The staff members will leave the country because of security concerns, according to the official, who said a smaller staff will reduce exposure during the upcoming presidential runoff, but will not affect U.N. capabilities to support the election.

The United Nations also reduced non-essential staff ahead of the August 20 election, the official said.

The order comes a day after Taliban militants stormed the guesthouse in an early morning raid on Wednesday, killing five U.N. staff members and wounding nine more. At least 25 U.N. employees were staying at the guesthouse, including 17 members of the U.N. election team.

Afghanistan's presidential runoff election is scheduled for November 7. Taliban militants have threatened to disrupt the polling.

The United Nations said it was reviewing its security procedures in the aftermath of Wednesday's attack.

"This is a sad day and very difficult day for the United Nations," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Wednesday, condemning the "shocking and shameless act and the terrorists who committed this crime" and noting that the incident is a reminder of how tough the U.N. job is in Afghanistan.

Ban said he was assured by Kai Eide, the top U.N. official in Afghanistan, that Afghan President Hamid Karzai had instructed his Interior Ministry to strengthen security, and he said the United Nations would do likewise -- in Kabul as well as elsewhere in the country.

"We will, of course, review our security procedures, as we do regularly for the Afghanistan mission as a whole. We will take all necessary measures to protect our staff," Ban said.

In the strike, weapons fire and explosions pounded the heart of the capital starting about 6 a.m. local time. The fighting began as sporadic gunfire, but intensified over time, lasting more than an hour.

The attack took place in a relatively secure section of the capital, in the vicinity of a number of government buildings. The firefight, which included machine-gun fire and rocket-propelled grenades, appeared to be concentrated near the guesthouse.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, saying on an insurgent Web site that three militants had killed 50 foreigners, who were election organizers. The claim could not be independently confirmed.

Officials said three militants were killed.

International troop levels increased this year, to provide security for the Afghan election in August, and the United States is considering deploying more troops.

news20091029cnn2

[Top stories] from [CNN.com]

[World]
Ahmadinejad: Iran ready for nuclear cooperation
October 29, 2009 -- Updated 1135 GMT (1935 HKT)

{Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a U.N. meeting in New York on September 25, 2009}

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
> Ahmadinejad said Iran was ready to talk with the U.S. and its allies, according to state-run Press TV
> IAEA inspectors arrived in Iran on Sunday to inspect a previously unknown nuclear plant near Qom
> Iran says its nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful purposes
> Many in the West believe Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities

Tehran, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad struck a rare conciliatory note Thursday, saying that the Islamic republic was ready for nuclear cooperation with Western powers.

Ahmadinejad, speaking to crowds in the northeastern city of Mashhad, said the West has gone from "confrontation to cooperation," according to state-run Press TV, and praised the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "playing a genuine role."

"One, they told us to stop (nuclear work,)" he said. "Now they express readiness to cooperate with us in exchange of fuel, expansion of the technology and construction of power plants and atomic reactors."

He said his nation is ready to talk with the United States and its allies in developing Iran's nuclear program, and he described a current draft proposal as a "victory" for Iran.

A formal response to the proposal is expected from Tehran on Friday. If accepted, it could help quell the international showdown over Iran's nuclear activities.

That deal, brokered earlier this month at IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria, would send low-enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment and then return it to Iran for use in medical research and treatment at a reactor in Tehran. And, Ahmadinejad said, getting fuel for the Tehran reactor would provide an opportunity to determine the "honesty" of the IAEA and the countries involved in the negotiations.

It could potentially reduce the amount of raw material Iran has on hand to build nuclear weapons. Building weapons is what the United States and its allies suspect is Tehran's goal. Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

"We welcome the exchange of fuel, technical cooperation and construction of power plants and reactors and we are prepared to cooperate (in those areas)," he said.

Iran shocked the world in September by revealing the existence of a previously unknown nuclear plant near the city of Qom.

The IAEA, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, sent a team of inspectors for a four-day visit to that facility, Press TV said. It said the inspectors "have expressed satisfaction with their mission."

Iranian officials are expected to meet with the five permanent members of theU.N. Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- plus Germany, to further discuss the nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad also said that Iran expected countries who are parties to the talks to "fulfill their previous obligations."

"We have nuclear contracts. It has been 30 years. We have paid for them .. such agreements must be fulfilled ... for technical activities, for reactors and power plants. If we intend to cooperate, such contracts must be addressed and the previous commitments must be fulfilled."

Iranian lawmaker Hossein Ebrahimi told the semi-official Mehr News Agency on Wednesday that nuclear talks between Iran and Western powers have greatly improved.

"Current international circumstances suggest that the atmosphere of distrust in the ongoing nuclear talks is diminishing," said Ebrahimi, a member of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.

He said the IAEA-brokered proposal would be beneficial "because Iran's right to produce enriched uranium would be recognized."

"If we choose this option, we can continue enrichment and gradually increase our ability to produce uranium that is more enriched to supply our power plants and reactors in the future," Ebrahimi added.

news20091029reut1

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
EU starts clampdown on gas-guzzling vans
Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:51am EDT

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The auto industry should stop selling its most gas-guzzling vans and minibuses in the European Union by 2016 or face fines, the EU's executive arm said on Wednesday.

The deadline would be four years later than first envisaged after powerful auto makers pushed hard for a delay until the EU's 27 member states have recovered from the economic crisis.

Average carbon emissions for each van would have to be cut by 14 percent between 2014 and 2016 to 175 grams for every kilometer driven, compared to an EU average of 203 grams today, the European Commission said.

By 2020, van makers would have to hit a target of 135 grams.

The launch of the proposal was delayed several times in recent weeks as officials in the Commission's industry and environment units wrangled over the details.

Europe's big auto-making nations -- France, Italy and Germany -- had pushed the Commission for a delay to 2017.

Van makers that overshoot the targets face fines.

In an initial period until 2018, the penalty will be 5 euros ($7.40) per van for each gram in excess, 15 euros for the second gram, 25 for the third and 120 for every further gram exceeding the limit.

From 2019, the first gram will cost 120 euros per vehicle.

(Reporting by Pete Harrison, editing by Timothy Heritage and Dale Hudson)


[Green Business]
Big polluters to reap benefit of climate deal
Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:36am EDT
By Gerard Wynn - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - Big energy and engineering companies will reap most profit from a climate deal due in December, as they use their financial and intellectual clout to grab low carbon subsidies.

Utilities and oil companies, among the biggest polluters, are using their market awareness to stay ahead of a climate race, maneuvering to own the most viable low-carbon technologies.

In addition, they are a natural magnet for government incentives as big emitters which have to drive cuts.

"They are sufficiently commercially and technically mature and their concentration makes action possible," said Chris Mottershead, head of research and innovation at King's College London and former climate change adviser to oil firm BP.

"There's an obvious conclusion: the big utilities, the international companies are the ones that are going to benefit in the first phase," said Copenhagen Climate Council director Per Meilstrup. "And that's quite a problem as I see it."

The council works with scientists and sympathetic industry to develop a green business voice and says governments must penalize carbon emissions more, to drive more investment in cash-starved, clean energy entrepreneurs.

The world is meant to agree a global climate deal at a U.N.-led December 7-18 meeting in Copenhagen. Negotiators may miss that deadline, say analysts who expect an agreement in 2010 which governments will craft into national policies to drive carbon cuts.

Big business is competing in a technology race by snapping up or partnering with smaller companies as these develop products, said Mark Kenber, policy analyst at The Climate Group.

That has been seen in wind power and in a technology to bury carbon emissions from coal plants -- called carbon capture and storage (CCS). In biofuels U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp announced in July $600 million plans to develop clean fuels from algae.

The dominance of high-carbon companies in cleantech is underscored by patent ownership. Exxon is the world's top holder of CCS patents, research by the UK thinktank Chatham House showed last month.

UNFAIR

CCS is receiving billions of dollars but may take a decade to develop. It is popular with big corporates as a bolt-on to coal plants which may use depleted oil wells to store carbon dioxide. The European Union's executive Commission two weeks ago awarded 1 billion euros to 6 CCS projects.

Analysts at the investment bank Citigroup have identified a "watch list" of 181 publicly traded companies which could benefit in the long-term from strong targets to cut carbon.

Benefiting sectors included utilities and engineering companies in nuclear, hydro and wind power, and the natural gas industry following new reserve finds and favorable economics for the low-carbon fossil fuel.

Likely winners were mostly large and well established -- such as electronics firm Philips, engineering company Alstom, oil and gas company Gazprom and waste firm Suez Environment.

Not everyone is happy that oil firms, utilities and big engineering companies may hold the keys to a low-carbon future, and there is a worry that insufficient public funds are reaching start-up companies and entrepreneurs.

"If you are not in a lab in a big international company that can afford to develop ideas, demonstrate projects and market mature products, then it's really hard," said Meilstrup.

He added that "amazing" technologies were being missed -- for example to generate cheap household energy from waste in developing countries.

High-carbon utilities may also have an unfair headstart after winning windfall profits under Europe's emissions trading scheme, meant to penalize polluters. And oil companies continue to get subsidies, such as U.S. oil exploration tax breaks.

U.S. venture capital investors in cleantech start-ups needed the same tax breaks, argued Mungo Park, chairman of Innovator Capital, a specialist investment bank.

But a booming wind industry is proof that a low-carbon revolution will likely create new winners outside traditional sectors -- perhaps battery makers, expected to roll out mass production units in pure electric cars from next year.

(Reporting by Gerard Wynn; Editing by William Hardy)


[Green Business]
TCW buys stake in Centrica wind farms
Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:47am EDT
By Sharon Lindores

LONDON (Reuters) - Centrica Plc, owner of the British Gas brand, will sell a 50 percent stake in three wind farms to U.S. based TCW, signaling renewed investment interest in an industry where recession has crimped financing.

Energy firms have been cutting costs with wind power projects suffering because of the high capital costs of new developments and a fall in the oil price from last year's record highs that was seen to make them less economically viable.

"Today's announcement that TCW are coming to the UK offshore industry is good news for the offshore wind industry, signaling that there are equity financial investors aside from utilities and IOCs (international oil companies) still looking at assets," analysts at Credit Suisse wrote.

Centrica said it had sold the stakes in its Lynn and Inner Dowsing offshore wind farms in Lincolnshire, off the east coast of England, and its onshore wind farm Glens of Foudland in Scotland for 84 million pounds ($137.5 million).

The company will make a 50 million pound profit from the sale to TCW, which is a subsidiary of Societe Generale Asset Management and has about $100 billion in assets under management.

Credit Suisse also said it was encouraging that Centrica had managed to raise 340 million pounds in project finance from a consortium of 14 banks to fund the three wind farms.

"We expect to see more re-financing deals of the kind Centrica announced today from other utilities," Credit Suisse said.

Centrica will enter a 15-year agreement to sell all of its electricity production from the three windfarms to British Gas.

Interest in the green energy sector has also been renewed thanks to the UK government's decision in April to enhance support for new offshore wind projects.

"Under this scheme, renewable projects in the UK receive a substantial premium over the baseload electricity price in order to incentivize their construction and support project economics," a bank analyst who chose not to be named said.

"Whilst these subsidies vary by technology and even commissioning date, offshore wind projects are toward the more lucrative end of the scale," he said.

"For instance, whilst the current UK power price for this winter is 40 pounds per megawatt hour, offshore wind may be able to achieve in excess of 110 pounds per megawatt hour once these subsidies are accounted for," he said.

The three windfarm deal will "contribute toward meeting the UK's targets for renewable energy," said Blair Thomas, chief executive of TCW's Energy and Infrastructure business.

Centrica also said it would build a new 725 million pound Lincs offshore wind farm, near Skegness on the Lincolnshire coast. It will have an installed capacity of 270 megawatts (MW) of power from 75 Siemens turbines.

Sam Laidlaw, chief executive of Centrica, said the company, which will receive government subsidies for both projects, is committed to developing green energy.

Interest in green technology companies could grow further with hopes of more government support following the Copenhagen climate change talks in December.

Construction on the Lincs project should begin in 2010 and the wind farm should be generating power toward the end of 2012. Once complete, Centrica will have equity interests in operating renewable energy projects with a capacity of 650 MW.

Credit Suisse rate Centrica as 'Outperform' with a target price of 300 pence.

Shares in Centrica were up 0.6 percent to 245.7 pence at 1330 GMT.

($1=.6091 Pound)

(Editing by Paul Hoskins and Simon Jessop)

news20091029reut2

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
Carbon values drive forest investment, greens wary
Wed Oct 28, 2009 12:44pm EDT
By Gerard Wynn - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - New rewards to store carbon in trees are driving forestry investments, but green groups fear they pose a threat to ancient woodlands and rainforests.

A new environmental focus is driving momentum in the forestry sector, with new demand for wood to replace coal and natural gas in Europe, and emerging markets for carbon offsets.

But a focus on the carbon benefits of trees has exposed differences between some green groups and investors on what counts as "sustainable" forestry.

Growing awareness of the environmental value of plantation forests is overdue, say managers.

"When you see 'think carefully before you print this email' that's just silly," said Liane Luke, chief timber officer at the $550 million, London-listed Phaunos Timber Fund.

"The more plantations there are the more carbon you're sucking out of the air. People need to get less sentimental about forests, it's like growing corn," she said.

Double-click here for a factbox on recent forestry investments.

Burning wood to produce energy emits less carbon than burning fossil fuels, especially if the trees are replanted, because plants trap CO2 from the air as they grow.

And because trees trap carbon dioxide, plantation owners may also be able to sell carbon offsets to polluters who have to meet tough emissions caps under prospective climate laws.

Green groups are concerned on how the rules are written for rainforests -- for example whether owners could earn offsets and still extract trees -- and are worried new interest in wood fuel could add pressure on ancient natural forests in Europe.

A new, global U.N.-led climate deal should add clarity to rules in talks which resume next week in Barcelona, in an ongoing effort to agree a deal in Copenhagen in December.

SUSTAINABLE

Indonesia and other south-east Asian countries have a long track record of destroying virgin rainforest to plant palm for the production of oil for the food and biofuel industries.

Reputable timber firms, their investors and green groups agree that landowners shouldn't be able to destroy rainforests and then earn carbon offsets for re-planting them.

But more nuanced rules for "sustainable" forest management are far from written, said Barry Gardiner, chair of a commission on forestry, under a group of lawmakers worldwide called GLOBE.

Liane Luke's Phaunos defines sustainable management of plantations as cutting no more trees than you plant. Natural forests including rainforests can also be selectively logged with little damage, under the right rules, said Gardiner.

But the Rainforest Foundation's Simon Counsell rejected selective logging of rainforests, which he said resulted in far bigger carbon losses than simply from the felled trees, for example from the damage caused by heavy machinery.

"It's a nonsense that these should be eligible for carbon credits, it should be carbon debiting," he said.

Draft climate laws in the United States and Australia are raising expectations of carbon offset markets there.

"As uncertainty recedes we think it will see substantial growth," said Caelim Parkes from Westbury, a manager of alternative investments launching a forestry product. A draft U.S. climate bill being considered in the Senate would allow polluters to buy 1.5 billion tons of carbon offsets annually.

The wood chip market, based on fast-growing eucalyptus and other plantations, has lesser environmental concerns -- especially where they are planted on grasslands in tropical countries, adding soil, landscape and carbon benefits.

The European Union has set goals for the 27-nation bloc to get 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, fuelling a wood chip boom.

International biomass firm Clenergen, for example, is developing plantations of fast-growing trees for export from Guyana to Europe and the United States, and for domestic energy markets in Ghana and India.

(Editing by James Jukwey)


[Green Business]
EU can cut CO2 by 30 percent by 2020 at no cost: report
Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:44pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - The European Union can cut carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 at almost no cost, according to a report by climate consultancy firm Ecofys released on Wednesday.

EU leaders have a target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels. They have pledged to increase the target to 30 percent if other world leaders at a U.N. climate summit this December agree to join in.

By replacing all energy equipment at the end of its life with low-carbon technologies, the 27-nation bloc could halve its greenhouse gas emissions within two decades, the report found.

It comes the day before an EU summit starts in Brussels where EU leaders will discuss climate change.

The study, called Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials and Economic Costs for Climate Change, examined 650 technologies over two years and compared their costs across 10 major sectors and EU countries.

"These results show how the 30 percent emissions target is within reach," said Bart Wesselink, project manager at Ecofys.

The study used a cost curve calculating the rate at which technologies became cheaper over time, using discount rates of 4 percent and energy prices before taxation.

The report found that the overall costs to society of reaching the total reductions potential in 2030 are negligible or even negative.

It also found that sectors not currently included in the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme including road transport, built environment, agriculture and waste could potentially reduce emissions in 2020 by 20 percent compared with 2005 levels and by 27 percent by 2030.

Out of the 27 member states, Britain, Germany and Ireland have the potential to achieve a 50 to 60 percent cut in emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.

Romania, Latvia, Slovakia, Malta and Slovenia's potential was between a 10 percent rise and a 10 percent cut in emissions.

news20091029reut3

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
Coal producer Massey: mine permitting hurts growth
Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:34pm EDT
By Steve James

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The demand for coal to generate power and make steel is growing, but environmental bureaucracy is making it more difficult to mine the fuel, the head of Massey Energy said on Wednesday.

"Our government is at least temporarily impeding the attainment of coal's full value ... and frustrating domestic opportunities for production growth," Chief Executive Officer Don Blankenship told Wall Street analysts.

"More production reductions will likely occur in central Appalachia as a result of the generally weak economic conditions and increasing regulatory and permitting constraints."

"But coal will continue to be in demand throughout the world and ultimately people will demand the benefits to be derived from coal," he said.

There was no immediate comment from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Last month, the EPA ruled that all 79 pending mine permits in Appalachia must undergo additional evaluation, because they pose a potential hazard to water in parts of Kentucky, West Virginia and Ohio.

Blankenship's broadside at tighter permitting procedures came a day after Massey reported a drop in third-quarter profit and trimmed its shipment outlook as demand, particularly for steam, or thermal coal for power generation, remained weak.

Stock in the company -- one of the Big Four U.S. coal producers -- was down 8.3 percent at $28.70 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday afternoon.

During a conference call with analysts to discuss the results, Blankenship was asked how a more active EPA mine permitting process was affecting miners' operations.

"When we look at acquisitions or properties we might acquire, we pay quite a bit of attention to which of them are permitted and what stage of the process their permitting efforts are in," he said.

Blankenship said worldwide production and use of coal will likely increase by more than 120 million tons per year during each of the next five years.

But "the macroeconomic factors facing all businesses and particularly the coal industry have never been more challenging," he said.

Blankenship said Massey looked to take advantage of increased demand for metallurgical, or coking coal, which is used to fire steelmaking blast furnaces. "As this growth occurs, we expect to have many opportunities to expand the export of our coal."

But he said he expected domestic thermal coal demand to remain weak for the next several quarters and perhaps through 2010. Utility stockpiles remain very high and the amount of coal being burned was low.

"Absent a resurgence in international demand for U.S. thermal coal, we would need to see significant reductions in domestic stockpiles before we would anticipate pricing to measurably improve."

But he said the weaker U.S. dollar and continued Asian economic growth could spur international demand for U.S. coal.

"We continue to be encouraged by the positive news we are hearing from the seaborne metallurgical coal export markets," he said, noting steel production in China was up 22 percent in August and 5 percent for the first eight months of the year.

Steel producers have restarted or announced plans to restart more than 40 blast furnaces that have previously been idled, Blankenship said, adding that Massey has the capacity to produce more than 12 million tons of metallurgical coal per year.

(Reporting by Steve James, editing by Matthew Lewis)


[Green Business]
Ackermans, Electrabel to create green energy firm
Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:53pm EDT

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Belgian holding company Ackermans & van Haaren and energy company Electrabel will join forces to create a new renewable energy company, the two companies said on Wednesday.

Electrabel, the Belgian arm of French utility GDF Suez, will have a 73 percent stake in the joint venture, called Max Green NV, and Ackermans the remaining 27 percent.

The venture's first project will be the conversion of the Rodenhuize 4 unit near the northern city of Ghent, from a coal-fired to a biomass power station with a capacity of 180 megawatts.

The project, requiring an investment of 125 million euros ($185.5 million), will start in 2010, with coal being replaced by wood pellets as an energy source. It will produce enough power for 320,000 households, the companies said.

Max Green will examine other renewable energy projects in the future.

The Belgian government has asked GDF Suez, which owns Electrabel, to invest 500 million euros in renewable energy in Belgium from 2010 in return for an extended life for three Belgian nuclear reactors.

For Ackermans, the venture will form a part of its newly created energy segment, one of five key sectors on which the holding focuses.

(Reporting by Antonia van de Velde and Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by David Holmes and Rupert Winchester)

($1=.6740 Euro)


[Green Business]
Global pollution-fighters find scant success
Wed Oct 28, 2009 3:53pm EDT
By Burton Frierson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Twelve of the worst pollution problems in the developing world are being cleaned up, demonstrating that tens of thousands of others also could be improved, according to a report released on Wednesday.

The clean-up sites, ranging from Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear disaster area to the polluted streets of Delhi, were in the fourth annual World's Worst Polluted Places Report issued by the New York-based Blacksmith Institute and Green Cross Switzerland.

In contrast to previous years' reports, which highlighted contaminated sites or specific pollution problems, the 2009 edition focused on clean-ups and solutions.

"Tens of thousands of polluted sites contaminate local populations -- as many as 500 million people are poisoned each day in the developing world," the report said.

"Only a few of these problems have been fixed. But it's a start and worth recognizing."

The group's initial search for potential success stories yielded just 45 candidates. Making the final list were the only 12 cases that appeared to provide verifiable and credible evidence of success.

"Here we are talking about successes but there's only 12 of them," Richard Fuller, president of Blacksmith Institute, told a teleconference of journalists.

"We've spent hundreds of billions of dollars in the West cleaning up our pollution problems here and at the same time we've shifted all our industry overseas and what we've done is ended up poisoning all these people in all these places overseas."

Blacksmith, an international not-for-profit organization, noted global progress in areas that were not geographically specific: removing lead from gasoline, which causes neurological damage, and efforts to eliminate through international treaty obsolete chemical weapons that maim and kill.

The report also listed 10 sites and what has been done to clean them up:

* Accra, Ghana: the broad commercialization of cooking stoves that reduce indoor air pollution, which causes respiratory illnesses in women and children;

* Candelaria, Chile: disposal of copper tailings and water treatment;

* Chernobyl-affected areas, Eastern Europe: medical, psychological and educational interventions to improve the lives of people in the zone of radiation contamination;

* Delhi: reduction of vehicle emissions that cause urban air pollution;

* Haina, Dominican Republic: removal of soil contaminated by the improper recycling of used car batteries, reducing lead levels in children's blood;

* Kalimantan, Indonesia: reduction of mercury poisoning from gold mining;

* Old Korogwe, Tanzania: removal of a stockpile of pesticides responsible for contaminating soil and a river;

* Rudnaya Pristan Region, Russia: removal of lead-contaminated soil in children's playgrounds;

* Shanghai: 12-year program to clean up sewage in an urban waterway that supplies drinking water to millions;

* West Bengal, India: reduction in arsenic poisoning through removal of naturally occurring arsenic in well water.

news20091029reut4

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
FACTBOX: Obama signs energy, water spending bill into law
Wed Oct 28, 2009 4:17pm EDT

(Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday signed into law a $33.5 billion spending bill to fund government energy and water programs for the 2010 budget year that began October 1.

Following are key provisions in the bill:

* Solar Energy: $225 million for research, development, and demonstration projects to make solar energy more affordable.

* Biofuels: $220 million for grants to improve production of alternative fuels such as cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel.

* Vehicle Technology: $311 million to improve fuel efficiency with better engines, better batteries and engines that burn clean, domestic fuel.

* Hydrogen Technology: $174 million to help develop hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies.

* Energy Efficient Buildings: $200 million to research conservation technologies for buildings and industry to reduce energy demand.

* Industrial Technologies: $96 million to help businesses improve energy efficiency.

* Weatherization Grants: $210 million for insulation and energy conservation measures to reduce utility bills for low-income families.

* Electricity: $172 million to research smart-grid technologies and energy storage and defend the power system against Internet attacks.

* Fossil Fuels: $672 million for research to reduce harmful emissions from fossil fuels, including $404 million for carbon capture and sequestration for coal-based activities.

* Nuclear: $787 million for research and development, including $169 million for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant.

* Nuclear Cleanup: $6.4 billion to clean up military and civilian nuclear facilities.

* Nuclear Weapons: $2.1 billion for nonproliferation activities and $6.4 billion to maintain the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile.

* Significant cuts include nuclear waste disposal. The White House scrapped the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. The bill gives $197 million, $92 million below 2009, to continue the licensing process and evaluate alternatives.

* $5.4 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers to build and maintain navigation canals and flood-control projects.

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan and Ayesha Rascoe; editing by Jim Marshall)


[Green Business]
U.S. climate bill spurs low-carbon jobs debate
Wed Oct 28, 2009 5:31pm EDT
By Timothy Gardner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Leaders at companies that develop low-carbon energy told a Senate panel that climate legislation would create millions of new jobs, but lawmakers from fossil-fuel dependent states said the bill would hit employment in the traditional energy economy.

Climate change presents a global crisis, but "can also provide an economic opportunity of vast proportions," Dan Reicher, director of climate change initiatives at Google told the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.

Besides creating new jobs in solar, wind and geothermal power, he said national regulation of greenhouse gases could help push investments to develop an efficient and robust power grid that would combine with information from the Internet.

That would create new jobs in new technologies across a range of companies, he said. The Web could send information from the "smart grid" to help consumers save money on power bills during peak demand periods and help them determine the cheapest time to charge electric cars that would cut emissions and oil imports.

Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer introduced new details on the climate bill last week on how permits would be distributed across industries. The bill aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by 2020 under 2005 levels, a slightly tougher goal than outlined by the bill narrowly passed by the House of Representatives.

It is uncertain, however, whether Boxer and fellow bill writer Senator John Kerry have the 60 votes needed to pass the bill. Several of their fellow Democrats have reservations about the bill, despite new enticements for coal-state senators, including more to stimulate technology for the fossil fuel and provide other industry breaks.

An aide to West Virginia Democratic Senator John Rockefeller said the tougher emissions goal is unrealistic and harmful as there is not enough time to deploy the carbon capture and storage and energy efficiency technologies.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, who represents Montana, another coal state, also voiced opposition on Tuesday to the 20 percent target.

A third Democratic senator, Robert Byrd, also of West Virginia, has not yet staked out a position on the revised Senate bill. Byrd praised Boxer's additions in the bill that put more focus on clean coal technology. But he warned, "I will actively oppose any bill that would harm the workers, families, industries, or our resource-based economy in West Virginia.

Those opinions come on top of opposition from Republican senators from manufacturing states.

Still, Peter Bremm, a vice president for Infinia Corp, told the panel climate legislation could create solar industry manufacturing jobs to replace jobs lost in the auto industry. The solar power company's supply chain consists of Midwestern auto supply companies retooled to work on renewable energy.

And Ralph Izzo, chief executive of power utility Public Service Enterprise Group Inc, which has nuclear, coal and natural gas-burning plants, told reporters after testifying that the bill would create jobs.

"A price on carbon forces you to do things differently ... and that creates opportunity," he said.

But Bill Klesse, the chief executive of oil refiner Valero Energy Corp, told the panel the bill would cut jobs in his industry because it would force companies to buy billions of dollars worth of carbon credits. He said the costs would hurt refiners who have already lost jobs as the recession cuts fuel demand.

Boxer disputed the claim about permits, as the plants would be given about two percent of the overall carbon pollution allocations in the early years of a cap and trade plan outlined in the bill.

Google's Reicher said revolutionizing the energy economy would take more than simply capping greenhouse gases. Measures to increase research and development funding for low carbon technologies and to set energy efficiency standards would also be needed to generate new jobs.

(Additional reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

news20091029reut5

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
First Solar sales lag Wall Street
Wed Oct 28, 2009 6:50pm EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - First Solar Inc posted quarterly sales on Wednesday far below Wall Street's view and gave an outlook showing competition was hurting prices, dashing hopes for a sector rebound and knocking 14 percent off its shares.

The solar panel maker's results, which follow disappointing outlooks from smaller U.S. solar companies SunPower Corp and Akeena Solar Inc last week, tempered investor optimism of a rebound in renewable energy this year.

Analysts saw pressure on thin-film photovoltaic makers from sliding silicon prices. First Solar also had to exclude $58 million in revenue from a major Canadian plant due to timing.

First Solar said its updated full-year guidance implied fourth-quarter gross margins of 41 percent to 44 percent, down from nearly 51 percent in the third quarter.

Chief Financial Officer Jens Meyerhoff told analysts on a conference call the company, despite being the "industry leader," made decisions on pricing that were guided by its goal of protecting market share.

The company's updated 2009 revenue guidance of $1.975 billion to $2.025 billion compares with the average analyst forecast of $2.003 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The shares of First Solar -- the first pure-play solar company to join the benchmark S&P 500 index -- plunged 14 percent to $130 in after-hours trading from a close of $151.58 on Nasdaq. The shares of rivals SunPower and LDK Solar Co Ltd slipped 2 percent.

First Solar posted third-quarter net income of $153.3 million, or $1.79 per share, up from $99.3 million, or $1.20 per share, a year ago. That beat analysts' average view of $1.74 per share.

SARNIA SOLD

Revenue was $480.9 million, up from $348.7 million last year, but sharply below an analyst forecast of $528.8 million. The company excluded $58 million from the Sarnia project in Canada, which was 65 percent complete at the end of the quarter and has been sold to Enbridge Inc.

First Solar's results come as the solar power industry is struggling to bounce back after struggling with a lack of financing for new projects and a global glut of panels.

Demand for systems that turn sunlight into electricity has taken a hit because of the global financial crisis and an oversupply of cells and modules, triggered by a cutback in Spanish subsidies.

Another worry for solar companies, including First Solar, is when and by how much Germany's government will cut aid to its solar industry, the world's top market.

First Solar Chairman Michael Ahearn saw potential for an earlier reduction of the aid due to recent elections there.

"It is an uncertainty that we have to plan around," he said.

Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar has weathered the global recession better than many peers because its cadmium telluride panels are cheaper to produce than the silicon-based panels that dominate the market. The cost in the third quarter fell to 85 cents per watt from 87 cents the quarter before.

But Ishita Manjrekar, senior analyst at Primary Global Research, said First Solar's results reflected the pressure thin film is facing because crystalline silicon prices have been coming down a lot faster than anticipated.

"We have seen prices (of crystalline silicon) go down so much that First Solar is no longer the cheaper module."

(Reporting by Braden Reddall and Poornima Gupta; editing by Leslie Gevirtz, Gary Hill and Andre Grenon)


[Green Business]
U.N. needs more muscle in environment fight: study
Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:37am EDT
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

OSLO (Reuters) - The United Nations needs to beef up and better coordinate efforts to help fight threats such as climate change, deforestation or over-fishing, two experts said on Thursday.

The world's system of green agencies and treaties is "bewildering" and while the international body's efforts are considerable they are diffused by having many organizations overseeing one aspect or another, the experts said.

"There is an urgent need for an environmental organization within the U.N. system with the influence to realize change and to stand side by side with strong organizations such as the World Trade Organization and World Health Organization," Italy's Stefania Prestigiacomo and Kenya's John Michuki said.

They are the environment ministers of Italy and Kenya, respectively, and co-chairs of a group considering U.N. environmental reform.

"Global environmental crises, from vanishing biodiversity and degrading forests to collapsing fish stocks and climate change, will not be solved without some tough thinking about international governance," they wrote in an opinion article.

They did not propose any specific agency for the role, but in the U.N. system, the Nairobi-based U.N. Environment Program is now the main authority, although its budget is low by U.N. standards at about $200 million a year.

Efforts to combat global warming, meanwhile, are overseen by the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn. Among others, the secretariat for safeguarding biological diversity is based in Montreal and another for wildlife trade is in Geneva.

CUT COSTS

"A recent independent study has estimated the costs of separate secretariats are four times more compared to organizations that have all their related treaties under one roof," the ministers wrote. UNEP gave the article to Reuters.

Prestigiacomo and Michuki's group is meeting in Rome this week to review options. They are due to report back to UNEP in early 2010.

In September, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy also wrote a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urging an overhaul in the wake of a U.N. climate conference in Denmark in December.

"We must make use of the momentum provided by Copenhagen to make further progress toward the creation of a World Environmental Organization," they wrote. The December 7-18 meeting is meant to agree a new U.N. pact to fight global warming.

Some past reform efforts have floundered, partly because some fear that overhauling the system could distract from action to address environmental problems.

In 2007, former French President Jacques Chirac won support from 49 nations for a new U.N. environment organization. But the United States, China and Russia did not sign up.

news20091029reut6

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
Europe's ECX skeptical on Australia carbon market
Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:51am EDT
By Bruce Hextall

GOLD COAST, Australia (Reuters) - The operator of world's largest carbon market, European Climate Exchange (ECX), has shelved plans to expand into Australia, concerned that the nation's planned cap-and-trade scheme had stalled.

London-based ECX's chief executive, Patrick Birley, played down recent signs of progress on the hotly contested Australian scheme, saying local lawmakers still appeared divided on it.

"There's no point in even thinking about it until the politicians make a decision," Birley told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday when asked about ECX's plans for Australia.

The Australian government is negotiating with the opposition with the aim of resolving a dispute over the planned scheme, which would require the country's major carbon polluters to purchase emission permits from mid-2011.

Parliament has already rejected the government's carbon-trading bill once. If it is rejected a second time in a vote due next month, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd could call a snap election on the issue, causing further delay and uncertainty.

Birley said ECX would only move into Australia when there was real demand for market pricing. He declined to give a time frame for that, saying the local situation was still too uncertain.

"If there's enough demand side from the users for a pricing mechanism we might look at it," Birley said.

"Across our group, we have different exchanges and different sets of customers so ultimately it's up to each of them to decide where to develop business."

ECX dominates Europe's carbon market with 98 percent market share, though four other exchanges also offer environmental derivatives. In 2008, overall market turnover was $118 billion and could exceed $200 billion this year, according to Birley.

FRUSTRATED BY SLOW PROGRESS

ECX's parent company, Climate Exchange Plc, has so far made only a very small bet on Australia, taking a 25 percent in carbon-exchange start-up EnVex, whose major backer is Australian investment bank Macquarie Group.

Australia's ASX Ltd, which runs the country's share and futures markets, is shaping up as the major player in what could quickly develop into a $10 billion-plus carbon market.

ASX also plans to offer futures trade in renewable energy by the year-end as Australia seeks to quadruple green power by 2020.

ECX's Birley voiced frustration at Australia's slow progress in developing a carbon market after almost a decade of debate.

"People have been tinkering away at the edges...there's definitely some good work being done but the big decisions are still to be made," he said.

"Europe's scheme isn't perfect but at least it is up and running, but here there seems to be too much emphasis on getting the design right," Birley added. "Showing leadership was what we were hoping, but we'll probably see leadership coming from Japan before Australia, which is an opportunity missed."

Japan's new government wants to introduce a compulsory cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas emissions as early as the year to March 2012, the Nikkei business daily said last month.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has outlined a goal to cut such emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.

"Someone needs to make decisions here (in Australia) because if we can do it in Europe where there's 27 member states, why can't you do it in Australia?" Birley said.

(Editing by Mark Bendeich)


[Green Business]
China steps up climate diplomacy
Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:51am EDT
By Chris Buckley - Analysis

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's busy climate change diplomacy has become increasingly feverish weeks before crucial talks that could forge a new pact to fight global warming, or end in rancor that could rebound onto the world's biggest emitter.

President Hu Jintao told President Barack Obama last week that China wants a successful outcome in Copenhagen when the world gathers from December 7 to wrangle over the proposed new climate pact, and the topic is sure to feature when Obama visits Beijing in mid-November.

Recent weeks have brought a flurry of meetings between China and other big hitters in the negotiations, including India. Global warming will feature too at a China-European Union summit late in November.

But Chinese diplomats and advisers doing footwork for the negotiations have echoed growing international gloom, warning the Copenhagen talks could end with a feeble agreement that evades key issues or even fails to reach a deal.

"The real negotiations will be after Copenhagen," Yi Xianliang, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official involved in the climate talks told a meeting in Beijing last week. "Copenhagen will be a starting point, not an ending point."

Hopes negotiators will agree on a firm goal to halve worldwide greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to recent levels appear dim, said Pan Jiahua, an expert on climate change policy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

As a coal-dependent behemoth with output of greenhouse gases likely to rise for many years yet, China could bear much of the brunt of any backlash if the talks fail to produce a solid deal. That could spill over into greater tensions over trade.

"With China such a big emitter, it wants to avoid becoming the scapegoat if negotiations are unsuccessful or even fall apart," said Wang Ke, who teaches environmental policy at Renmin University in Beijing.

"We feel it's already game-over. Copenhagen will be a rough compromise," he said. "China wants to take the initiative so it avoids being blamed if that's called a failure."

China's emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas generated by human activity, reached 6.8 billion tonnes in 2008, a rise of 178 percent over levels in 1990, according to the IWR, a German energy institute. U.S. emissions rose 17 percent over this period to 6.4 billion tonnes.

A MATTER OF TRUST

China is often denounced by Western critics as a stumbling block to agreement, because it argues developing countries should not submit to binding international caps on emissions while they grow out of poverty.

In turn, China and other developing countries have said the rich countries have done far too little in vowing to cut their own greenhouse gas output, and in offering technology and money to the Third World to help cope with global warming.

The weeks before Copenhagen appear unlikely to bring decisive progress in settling those and related disputes over commitments and verification.

"The likely outcome, we believe, may be to issue a framework political agreement," said Pan, the climate change researcher, who also advises the government.

"The long-term mitigation targets and medium-term goals will require subsequent tough negotiations."

Adding to the sober tone, the U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, Todd Stern, Wednesday scuttled expectations Obama's visit to China next month could produce a climate change deal.

But the summit between Hu and Obama may nonetheless help nurture greater trust so governments can reach a workable agreement in Copenhagen, said Deborah Seligsohn, China program director at the World Resources Institute in Beijing.

China's top leaders, including Hu and vice-Premier Li Keqiang, have been determinedly upbeat about success at Copenhagen.

Rifts have narrowed on issues such as establishing a central body to manage the spread of climate-friendly technology and financing poor countries' climate needs, said Seligsohn.

"If they're feeling they can trust each other, then these issues are not that difficult," said Seligsohn, a former U.S. State Department official who worked on environmental issues.

"I think it's a question of whether everybody is feeling optimistic and confident when they walk into the (Copenhagen) meeting."

But Lu Xuedu, a deputy director of China's National Climate Center who is involved in the negotiations, had little doubt hard bargaining lies ahead, before and after Copenhagen.

"In fact, sometimes in the climate negotiations, we don't dare even dash to the toilet, because when you come back in the room things have changed," Lu told reporters last week.

(Additional reporting by Emma Graham-Harrison; Editing by Jerry Norton)