news20091006gdn1

[News] from [guardian.co.uk]

[Emvironment > Carbon emissions]
Carbon emissions will fall 3% due to recession, say world energy analysts
Cut in greenhouse gas emissions provides countries with a unique chance to switch to less carbon-intensive energy sources, says International Energy Agency
John Vidal in Bangkok
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 6 October 2009 13.52 BST Article history

Man-made greenhouse gas emissions will drop 3% in 2009 largely because of the worldwide financial crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

Three-quarters of the reduction has been the result of less industrial activity, with the rest coming from countries turning to renewable energy and nuclear power.

But the world's premier energy analysts calculated that to avoid dangerous climate change, countries around the world will have to spend $400bn a year building more than 350 new nuclear plants and 350,000 wind turbines in the next 20 years. They also estimate that by 2020, three-fifths of cars will need to use alternatives to the traditional internal combustion engine. The findings came in a special extract of the IEA's forthcoming annual world energy outlook report, published at the UN climate talks in Bangkok.

The emissions cuts, only the fourth in the last 50 years, provide countries with a unique chance to switch to less carbon-intensive energy sources, said the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol.

"Average growth in emissions has been 3% a year but we estimate this year that emissions will fall 3%. Because of the financial crisis, many industries have the chance to move away from unsustainable power. If we get a good result at the Copenhagen climate talks, then they could be turned to sustainable energy," he said.

The independent agency, which is funded by the world's richest 28 countries, said it would be a catastrophe if countries continued with business as usual. "We need an energy and environment revolution. Business as usual would increase temperatures by 6C. To hold emissions to 450ppm [parts per million], we need in the region of 18 nuclear power stations, 17,000 turbines, 100 concentrated solar power stations and 16 carbon capture and storage plants to be built every year until 2030," said Birol.

"We think the share of renewables and nuclear which is now 18% worldwide needs to go up to 33% by 2030," he said. "But energy efficiency will be the key."

The energy revolution envisaged by the IEA would cost about $400bn a year to fund between now and 2020, but it would cost far more to catch up with emission cuts later on, said Nobuo Tanaka, the director of the agency.

"The benefits will be that we avoid the worst implications of climate change which are unquantifiable. Everyone will also save money," he said.

Under the IEA's scenario of how the world could hold emissions to 450ppm, countries would have rapidly away from the internal combustion engine. "Ninety-five per cent of new cars today have internal combustion engines. To hold emissions to 450 [ppm] you need more and more hybrids and electric cars. By 2020, only 40% of cars should have internal combustion engines," it suggested.

For the first time, the agency estimated the costs to Opec oil-producing countries of a worldwide shift away from petrol and oil. With no deal at Copenhagen, it says, the industry could expect to earn about $28tr between 2012 and 2030. But holding emissions to 450ppm would reduce the industry's revenue by 16% to $24tr, said Birol.

"They would earn less, but it would still be four times more than they have earned in the last 22 years, he said. "Oil, coal and gas needs to peak at 2020 and then decline. Renewables, nuclear and CCS [carbon capture and storage] need to go up dramatically," said the report.

He said that the climate talks due to conclude in Copenhagen in December were fundamental to whether the world moved away from fossil fuels. "That requires signals. People do not invest in dirty power because they are bad but because of the money. Without an incentive signal from Copenhagen it will not change," he said.

"The IEA's report confirms what we already know – that every year's delay in climate action will significantly increase the costs," said Kaisa Kosonen, Greenpeace International policy analyst.

The assessment confirms that current industrialised country targets are not enough to drive energy efficiency and renewables on the scale needed.

It also confirms what Greenpeace's own scenario shows, that energy efficiency will play by far the biggest role in solving climate change - over and above any other technologies.

The rise and fall of carbon emissions
Carbon emissions are strongly linked to economic growth and have increased globally roughly 3% a year since the 1950s. But they have also fallen three times in the last 60 years.

The first drop occurred during the oil crises of the early 1970s when the price of oil more than doubled, forcing many industries to contract or close.

Emissions fell again in the early 1990s with the economic collapse of the Soviet Union which depended heavily on coal. Industrial output plummeted, coal mines closed and people could not afford to heat their homes.

More surprisingly, carbon emissions also fell 0.3% in 1998-99, thanks partly to improved energy efficiency but mainly because Britain and Germany closed many coal mines and switched to gas, and China reduced its energy subsidies. The world economy continued to grow, mainly though information technologies and service sectors that were not then major energy users.

The 2009 fall in emissions due to the credit crunch and the recession that has followed it is the deepest since the 1970s.


[Emvironment > Climate change]
Apple joins Chamber of Commerce exodus over climate change scepticism
Technology firm becomes latest in line of high-profile departures after federation opposes efforts to reduce emissions
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 6 October 2009 11.44 BST Article history

Apple has become the latest in a growing list of companies to quit the US Chamber of Commerce over its policies on climate change. In a letter to the chamber president, Thomas Donohue, Apple's Catherine Novelli said she was frustrated by the hard-line stance the organisation had taken against the Environmental Protection Agency and draft climate legislation now before the Senate.

Novelli did not sugarcoat the exit. "We strongly object to the chamber's recent comments opposing the EPA's effort to limit greenhouse gases," she wrote in the letter, released yesterday, adding: "Apple supports regulating greenhouse gas emissions, and it is frustrating to find the chamber at odds with us in this effort." The company's departure is effective immediately.

The chamber is against the idea that the EPA should use its authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. This is almost universally seen as a fallback position in case the Democrats fail to push a climate change bill through Congress. The chamber also opposes the climate bill passed by the house last June, claiming it will drive up business costs.

Some chamber officials have stirred things up further by calling for a commission to put the science of climate change "on trial" – even though the most authoritative report to date on the impact of climate change on different regions in the US was released just weeks ago.

Those comments may turn out to be the ones that started the (as yet) mini-exodus. Within the last two weeks, the chamber has lost California's biggest utility corporations, Pacific Gas and Electric and Exelon, along with PNM resources, a New Mexico firm. Nike resigned from the commerce executive but remains a member. Two other firms - General Electric and Johnson & Johnson - have issued statements saying that they disagree with the chamber's climate policy.

The defection of these household names has inevitably attracted attention. So, too, has the spread of business exiting the chamber, from conventional utility companies to ultra-innovative firms such as Apple.

Some see the moves as the beginnings of a new climate change consensus in the business world, but it will take many more defections before a critical mass is reached. The chamber estimates its membership at 3m "businesses and organizations of every size" and, on its official website at least, shows no sign of feeling even the faintest pinch of loss. Instead, it claims to be protecting its members by using funds to attack the climate change bill and its supporters.

Environmental organisations say the defections are the beginning of the end for the chamber. "It just underscores how out of touch the chamber position on this issue is with mainstream America." said Josh Dorner, a spokesman for Clean Energy Works. "The chamber has effectively written itself out of mainstream debate."

news20091006gdn2

[News] from [guardian.co.uk]

Environment > Forests]
UN's forest protection scheme at risk from organised crime, experts warn
International police, politicians and conservationists warn that the UN's programme to cut carbon emissions by paying poor countries to preserve their forests is 'open to wide abuse'
John Vidal, environment editor
guardian.co.uk, Monday 5 October 2009 17.00 BST Article history

A revolutionary UN scheme to cut carbon emissions by paying poorer countries to preserve their forests is a recipe for corruption and will be hijacked by organised crime without safeguards, a Guardian investigation has found.

The UN, the World Bank, the UK and individuals including Prince Charles have strongly backed UN plans to expand the global carbon market to allow countries to trade the carbon stored in forests.

If, as expected, this is agreed at crucial UN climate change talks taking place in Bangkok this week and concluding in Copenhagen in December, up to $30bn a year could be transferred from rich countries to the owners of endangered forests.

But experts on all sides of the debate, from international police to politicians to conservationists, have warned this week that the scheme, called Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (Redd), may be impossible to monitor and may already be leading to fraud. The UN itself accepts there are "high risks".

Interpol, the world's leading policing agency, said this week that the chances were very high that criminal gangs would seek to take advantage of Redd schemes, which will be largely be based in corruption-prone African and Asian countries.

"Alarm bells are ringing. It is simply too big to monitor. The potential for criminality is vast and has not been taken into account by the people who set it up," said Peter Younger, Interpol environment crimes specialist and author of a new report for the World Bank on illegal forestry.

"Organised crime syndicates are eyeing the nascent forest carbon market. I will report to the bank that Redd schemes are open to wide abuse," he said.

The significance of the felling of forests across great swaths of the world cannot be overstated - it is are responsible for about 20% of the globe's entire carbon emissions. With governments anxious to find new ways to meet increasingly stringent national emission targets, a scheme which promises to benefit poor countries, cut emissions cheaply and not require any new technology is highly attractive.

But most of the countries rich in forests are also home to some of the world's most corrupt politicians and uncontrolled logging companies, who stand to make billions of dollars if they can get Redd projects approved.

"Fraud could include claiming credits for forests that do not exist or were not protected or by land grabs. It starts with bribery or intimidation of officials, then there's threats and violence against those people. There's forged documents too," said Younger. "Carbon trading transcends borders. I do not see any input from any law enforcement agency in planning Redd."

Hans Brattskar, director of Norway's forest and climate programme, whose country is financially backing the UN Redd programme, said last night: "It will be extremely difficult to make it work. Law enforcement is vital because the corruption issued are very real. But we have to put in safeguards and we have to try. Redd can save up to 20% of all the world's emissions. Without it, I believe it will be impossible to reach the target of stemming climate change and holding global temperatures to 2C," the level judged acceptable by the European Union.

Last month, Papua New Guinea, one of the countries pushing hardest for Redd to be accepted in the UN climate talks, suspended their climate change minister after allegations that $100m of fake carbon credits had been handed to communities to persuade them to sign up to forest protection schemes.

Last night the UN admitted that Redd schemes were dangerously open to abuse. "Where countries are corrupt the potential for Redd corruption is dangerous. [In Papua New Guinea], people have tried to take advantage of the market in an unacceptable way and carbon cowboys are trying to get the benefits. We can expect more of this as Redd develops," said Tiina Vahanen, a senior officer at UN-Redd.

People setting up Redd schemes also fear that they may be discredited by fraudsters aiming to profit from public money. "The potential for Redd rape and pillage is staggering. Logging companies may turn into carbon companies. All they have to do is count, not cut. It's like giving a mass murderer money," said Rob Dodwell, a British conservationist setting up schemes in Kenya and Cameroon.

The UN estimates that 25% of the world's forestry emissions, or nearly 5% of total global carbon emissions, could be saved by 2015 if rich countries invest $15bn to set up Redd schemes.

So far rich countries have put up $52m to establish nine official pilot Redd schemes in Asia, Latin America and Africa. In addition several hundred private schemes are being set up by bankers, conservation groups, and businesses who plan to offer carbon credits on the voluntary market.

But academics and environment groups with long experience working with the logging industry and indigenous communities said that both government and private schemes are being set up with no guarantees to protect communities who depend on the forests. "Decisions are being rushed, communities are not consulted or compensated and the lure of money from cutting emissions is overiding everything," says Rosalind Reeve of forestry watchdog group Global Witness.


[Environment > Deforestation]
Global brands refuse to endorse 'slaughter of the Amazon'
Meat companies sign a moratorium on cattle products linked to rainforest destruction
David Adam
guardian.co.uk, Monday 5 October 2009 16.48 BST

Four of the biggest companies involved in Brazilian cattle farming have joined forces to stop the purchase of cattle from newly deforested areas of the Amazon.

Meat companies Marfrig, Bertin, JBS-Friboi and Minerva yesterday signed a formal moratorium in which they pledge better protection for the rainforest.

The move follows a three-year Greenpeace investigation, reported extensively in the Guardian in June, which exposed the link between forest destruction and the expansion of cattle ranching in the Amazon. The investigation prompted calls for action from key international companies, including food group Princes and footwear manufacturers Clarkes, Adidas, Nike, and Timberland, which threatened to cancel contracts unless their beef and leather products were guaranteed free from raw materials linked to Amazon destruction.

John Sauven, head of Greenpeace, said: "Today's announcement is a significant victory in the fight to protect the Amazon. Cattle ranching is the single biggest cause of deforestation globally, and the fact that these multibillion dollar companies have committed to cleaning up their supply chains will lead to real change in the Amazon."

He added: "British companies have helped make this happen by getting tough with their suppliers, but this is not the end of the story. We now need to make sure that this agreement is properly enforced and extended to the entire cattle industry in Brazil."

Blairo Maggi, governor of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, which has the highest rate of deforestation in the Amazon and the largest cattle herd in Brazil, attended the signing in São Paulo. Maggi has announced the state will support efforts to protect the Amazon and will provide high-resolution satellite images to monitor the area.

Clearing tropical forests for agriculture is estimated to produce 17% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions – more than the global transport system.

The Greenpeace investigation compiled government records, company documents and trade data from Brazil, China, Europe, Vietnam and the US to piece together the global movement of meat, leather and cosmetics ingredients made from Brazilian cattle.

news20091006nn1

[naturenews] from [nature.com]

[naturenews]
Published online 5 October 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/461706a
News
Chromosome protection scoops Nobel
Prize for physiology or medicine awarded for uncovering role of telomeres.
By Alison Abbott

Three US scientists have won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discovering the structure of molecular caps called telomeres and working out how they protect chromosomes from degradation. Their discoveries in cell biology during the 1980s and 1990s opened new avenues of work, in ageing and in cancer research, which are still highly active today.

The prize, announced on 5 October, is shared equally between Elizabeth Blackburn at the University of California, San Francisco, Carol Greider of the Johns Hopkins Medical School in Baltimore, Maryland, and Jack Szostak at Harvard Medical School in Boston, Massachusetts. The three have already won numerous prizes for their work, including sharing one of the 2006 Lasker awards, often considered to be a forerunner of the Nobel prize.

Their research revealed a fundamental aspect of how DNA, packed into chromosomes, is copied in its entirety by the DNA polymerase enzyme during cell division. The ends of the chromosomes are capped by telomeres, long thought to have a protective function (see 'Chromosome caps'). Without them, the chromosomes would be shortened during each cell division, because DNA polymerase is unable to copy to the very end of one of the two DNA strands it is replicating.

In the early 1980s, after their fortuitous meeting at a Gordon Research Conference in 1980, Blackburn and Szostak discovered that telo­meres include a specific DNA sequence. Fired up by the novelty of each other's work, they devised experiments that seemed crazy at the time, even to themselves. Szostak took the telomere sequences that Blackburn had identified in the protozoan Tetrahymena thermophila and coupled it with mini-chromosomes that he inserted into his own preferred model organism, yeast.

Cross-species effect

The sequence was able to protect the chromosomes in this different species¹. It was soon found that the protection conferred by telomeres is a fundamental biological mechanism present in nearly all animals and plants. Szostak and Blackburn suspected that an unknown enzyme must be involved. On Christmas Day in 1984, Greider — then Blackburn's graduate student — saw the first evidence that this enzyme, which Greider and Blackburn named telomerase, was responsible for constructing telomere DNA².

They worked out that telomerase provides a platform enabling DNA polymerases to copy the entire length of the chromosome without missing the ends. Greider and Blackburn also showed that telomerase contains a key RNA sequence that acts as a template for the telomere DNA3, which attracts proteins to form a protective cap around the ends of the DNA strands.

Telomeres themselves shorten with repeated cell division, making up a key part of the cell's ageing mechanism. Low telomerase activity and telomere shortening speed up ageing, whereas incessantly dividing cancer cells often have high telomerase activity and maintain their telo­mere length. Cancer therapies directed against telomerase are now being tested in clinical trials.

But there is still a lot of basic biology to discover — such as how telomerase activity is regulated at individual telomeres, and how telomeres manage to avoid the attentions of DNA repair enzymes which seek out breaks in DNA and restitch the torn ends.

Blackburn and Greider become only the ninth and tenth female scientists to win the physiology or medicine prize since it was first awarded in 1901, and it is the first time that two women have been recognized in a single prize. Indeed, telomere research is unusually dominated by women. "It is hard to find a male among us," says David Shore, a cell biologist at the University of Geneva, Switzerland. "And two main reasons are Liz and Carol — they created the field and have been role models."

Blackburn has also been involved in the politics of science, serving on the US President's Council on Bioethics from 2002 until she was dropped in 2004 after criticizing the restrictions on human embryonic stem-cell research imposed by then President George W. Bush.

Lea Harrington, Greider's first graduate student, who is now at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Cell Biology at the University of Edinburgh, UK, says that her four years in Greider's laboratory at Cold Spring Harbor, New York, were "electric. We all realized what an exciting time it was — so many questions being answered about the composition of telomerase, how it worked and its relevance to human biology."

References
1. Szostak, J. W. & Blackburn, E. H. Cell 29, 245-255 (1982). | Article | PubMed | ISI | ChemPort |
2. Greider, C. W. & Blackburn, E. H. Cell 43, 405-413 (1985). | Article | PubMed | ISI | ChemPort |
3. Greider, C. W. & Blackburn, E. H. Nature 337, 331-337 (1989). | Article | PubMed | ISI | ChemPort |

news20091006nn2

[naturenews] from [nature.com]

[naturenews]
Published online 5 October 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.972
News
Flu virus behind infant pneumonia in poor countries
Viral infection precedes an unexpectedly large proportion of childhood pneumonia cases.
By Alison Abbott

Influenza may be a surprisingly important player in childhood pneumonia deaths in developing countries, a study has found1. Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in under-fives worldwide — in poor countries more than one-fifth of childhood mortality is attributed to the disease.

The study, led by Abdullah Brooks of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, was based in a poor district of Dhaka in Bangladesh. When field workers observed symptoms typical of flu or pneumonia, such as fever or coughing, they referred children to clinics, where project doctors took nasal washes to test for influenza.

More than 12,000 cases were referred during the study, with more than 7,500 of them developing into full-blown pneumonia. Brooks and his colleagues were able to follow the fate of 5,000 children under the age of five over a three-year period. The influenza virus was present in about 13% of children tested.

"Tellingly, we found that two-thirds of these influenza-associated pneumonias occurred in very young children — those under two years old," says Brooks. "That didn't surprise us because complications of influenza are known to occur more frequently in this age group."

The work is to be published in The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal¹.

Secret agent

Hospital-based studies carried out during the past few years in India, Thailand and Hong Kong have indicated that influenza has a significant association with pneumonia. But this is the first prospective, population-based study in a tropical or subtropical area to analyse the problem more rigorously. Similar studies are now ongoing in other countries, including Kenya.

Until recently, influenza has not been considered very seriously in developing countries, which have many pressing health problems. Surveillance of the virus, so well-established in the West, is poor in these regions.

{{“Not only is influenza underestimated, but so are its consequences.”}
David Salisbury
World Health Organization}}

Around half of all severe or fatal pneumonia cases are associated with one of two bacterial infections, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) or Streptococcus pneumoniae, or 'pneumococcus'. The Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunisation has introduced new vaccines against Hib in many countries during the past four years, and in 2007 launched a programme to introduce pneumococcal vaccines. During the past few years, field researchers have begun to seek agents responsible for the other 50% of these cases.

"There is a ragbag of possible agents, from other bacteria to viruses or mycobacteria," says Anthony Scott of the Wellcome Trust's KEMRI Research Programme in Kilifi, Kenya. "But influenza certainly seems to be important among these — we are also seeing significant involvement of influenza at this sort of rate in our preliminary studies here."

The impact of the influenza virus in pneumonia and pneumonia deaths may be even greater than the Bangladesh study suggests, says Brooks, because some viral infections may escape detection. Before they disappear, viral infections can strip the trachea of its cilia — the mobile extensions of the cells lining the trachea that normally stop bacteria entering the lungs. So it is likely that many bacterial infections occur because influenza paves their way, he says.

Prevention effort

In the west, vulnerable people are vaccinated annually and vaccination strains are continually updated because the influenza virus mutates rapidly.

Brooks is now organizing funding for a US$5-million, three-year flu-vaccine trial involving 3,000 children that he hopes to launch early next year to find out how many pneumonia deaths could be avoided in future.

"The goal of our vaccination programme is to reduce pneumonia deaths as much as possible, and most of these occur in the under-twos," says Brooks. So he plans to vaccinate children once, at the age of 9–12 months.

A separate study is being planned by Mark Steinhoff of the Cincinnati Children's Hospital in Ohio to vaccinate pregnant women in their third trimester so as to protect newborns. Steinhoff's pilot study showed that vaccinating women against influenza in late-stage pregnancy reduces flu infection in infants under six months of age by more than 60%².

"Doing a vaccine study like this is very interesting because you can look at the whole causal chain," says Scott. "Influenza-virus vaccine may well prevent a proportion of bacterial pneumonia cases in addition to reducing influenza."

"Not only is influenza underestimated, but so are its consequences," says David Salisbury, chairman of the World Health Organization's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals. "We know that pneumonia in developing countries has a high burden of morbidity and mortality, and Abdullah's suggested strategy of vaccinating against flu could diminish both its direct and indirect effects."

References
1. Brooks, W. A. et al. Ped. Infect. Dis. J. doi: 10.1097/INF.0b013e3181bc23fd (2009).
2. Zaman, K. et al. N. Engl. J. Med. 359, 1555-1564 (2008). | Article | PubMed | ChemPort |

news20091006bbc1

[One-Minute World News] from [BBC NEWS]

[Asia-Pacific]
Page last updated at 08:21 GMT, Tuesday, 6 October 2009 09:21 UK
North Korea 'may return to talks'
{Wen Jiabao spent three days in North Korea}
North Korea says it may be willing to return to six-party international talks on its nuclear weapons programme, state media have reported.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is said to have made the announcement to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao before he left Pyongyang after a three-day visit.

But Mr Kim said the return would be dependent on the progress of its planned bilateral talks with the US.

The US says it remains ready to engage with North Korea.

{North Korea and China's neighbours hoped the visit would restart talks}

Highlighting the urgency of restarting talks, a South Korean source said the North appeared to be in the final stages of restoring the nuclear programme at Yongbyon that it had shut down before abandoning the six-party process.

"We have obtained indications that point to restoration work being in the final stages," Reuters news agency quoted the source as saying.

"The work to restore nuclear facilities at Yongbyon has been ongoing since early this year."

'Vital consensus'

The six-party talks, which began in 2003, constitute delegates from the two Koreas, China, the US, Russia and Japan.

The forum reached deals in 2005 and 2007, under which the North shut down its plants at Yongbyon and began disabling them in return for aid and security guarantees.

{{NUCLEAR CRISIS}
> Oct 2006 - North Korea conducts an underground nuclear test
> Feb 2007 - North Korea agrees to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel aid
> June 2007 - North Korea shuts its main Yongbyon reactor
> June 2008 - North Korea makes its long-awaited declaration of nuclear assets
> Oct 2008 - The US removes North Korea from its list of countries which sponsor terrorism
> Dec 2008 - Pyongyang slows work to dismantle its nuclear programme, after a US decision to suspend energy aid
> April 2009 - Pyongyang launches a rocket carrying what it says is a communications satellite
> 25 May 2009 - North Korea conducts a second nuclear test
> 5 August 2009 - Former US President Bill Clinton visits to help secure the release of two detained US journalists
> 6 October 2009 - North Korea tells China it may be willing to return to six-party talks}}

But the last talks were in December 2008, and in April this year North Korea said the negotiations were over for good, following widespread condemnation of its long-range missile launch.

A month later, tensions rose still further when the North conducted an underground nuclear test.

In recent weeks, though, the North has shown signs of a more conciliatory approach, and on Monday Mr Kim told Mr Wen that Pyongyang was "willing to attend multilateral talks, including the six-party talks, depending on the progress in its talks with the United States," China's Xinhua news agency reported.

"The hostile relations between the DPRK [North Korea] and the United States should be converted into peaceful ties through the bilateral talks without fail," North Korea's state news agency KCNA quoted Mr Kim as saying.

US state department spokesman Ian Kelly said the aim for Washington was to convince Pyongyang to take the path to complete denuclearisation.

He said this remained the core objective, and that the multi-party process was the best mechanism for achieving that.

"We and our six-party partners want North Korea to engage in a dialogue that leads to complete and verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula through irreversible steps," Mr Kelly said.

Mr Wen has just completed a three-day trip to North Korea, to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the countries.

China is North Korea's biggest trading partner and is the country which holds the greatest sway over the secretive Pyongyang regime.

The importance of Mr Wen's visit was underlined when he was met on arrival on Sunday by Mr Kim.

Mr Kim accompanied Mr Wen to a Korean opera, where the two held "friendly talks", Xinhua said.

He also escorted the Chinese party to a special performance of the Arirang mass gymnastics display marking the anniversary.

According to KCNA, performers and the audience "broke into cheers of 'Hurrah!', shaking the stadium, and fireworks were displayed to beautifully decorate the nocturnal sky".


[Asia-Pacific]
Page last updated at 03:41 GMT, Tuesday, 6 October 2009 04:41 UK
Sumatra relief effort increased
{Padang residents are trying to restore some normality to life}
Nearly a week after a deadly earthquake hit the Indonesian island of Sumatra, efforts are being stepped up to get relief supplies to remote communities.

Some have not yet received any help; others may be left as mass graves as efforts focus on helping the living.

The Red Cross told the BBC that food, shelter and clean water were urgently needed.

More than 1,000 people have died but thousands more are thought to be missing.

Officials in the earthquake-hit city of Padang have now called off the search for survivors - and efforts to find survivors in other areas are also being scaled down.

Global help

A group of British aid agencies - combined to form the Disasters Emergency Committee - are launching a national appeal to raise funds for those affected by the quake, and by Typhoon Ketsana, which caused widespread destruction in the Philippines and Vietnam last week.

A series of radio and television appeals are to be broadcast in the UK on Tuesday.

The United States is sending aircraft and navy ships to Indonesia, carrying about 45 metric tonnes of relief commodities.

"This includes plastic sheeting, hygiene kits, generators, and this will all be distributed via the Red Cross," the US State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said.

{{WEST SUMATRA QUAKES}
> First quake struck on Wednesday at 1716 local (1016 GMT) under sea north-west of Padang
> Second quake followed on Thursday at 0852 local}}

US Pacific Command has flown two C-17 military transport aircraft to Padang, with material for a field hospital that will treat as many as 400 people a day, he said.

The USS Denver, an amphibious response vessel with helicopters that will fly to the hardest-hit rural areas, is due to arrive in Padang on Thursday.

Reaching villages

The main task is to reach villages which have yet to receive any help.

"I think in the city there is no real concern over an outbreak of disease. I mean the priority in the city is to get the electricity back on line, to get the water working," said Patrick Fuller, the communications co-ordinator for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

"But our concern is still getting to people in villages, in the rural areas, who haven't been reached yet," he said.

Getting specialist care into Padang is also a focus of aid efforts.

"Basically, I think as more and more of the outlying villages are accessible, more and more of such patients are being sent to this hospital," said a commander at a Singaporean emergency tent hospital.

Indonesian military helicopters are carrying out food drops to remote areas, delivering instant noodles, blankets, milk and dry food, said officials.

Heavy rain since Sunday and thick wet mud is also making it difficult for aid workers to reach the stricken areas, said Gagah Prakoso, a spokesman for the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency.

Meanwhile, Hiroaki Sano, head of the Japan Disaster Rescue Team, said international search and rescue teams were winding up operations and preparing to go back home.

There have been no survivors rescued from the rubble since Friday, says the BBC's Karishma Vaswani in Padang.

news20091006bbc2

[One-Minute World News] from [BBC NEWS]

[Asia-Pacific]
Page last updated at 12:52 GMT, Tuesday, 6 October 2009 13:52 UK
France secures $6bn Kazakh deals
{Mr Sarkozy said he raised concerns over human rights with Mr Nazarbayev}
France and Kazakhstan have signed energy and business deals worth $6bn (£3.8bn) during a visit to Astana by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Kazakhstan also agreed to allow French military supplies to pass through on their way to Afghanistan.

Mr Sarkozy said he discussed concerns over Kazakhstan's rights record with President Nursultan Nazarbayev but had not come to "give lessons".

Kazakhstan has large oil and gas fields and is Central Asia's largest economy.

Mr Nazarbayev has ruled since the country gained its independence when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991.

Kazakhstan is being courted by a number of Western nations for its energy reserves and strategic position. It shares borders with China and Russia and is near Afghanistan.

'Choice for peace'

The biggest deal was signed between Total and GDF Suez and Kazakh state energy firm Kazmunaigaz to develop the Khvalynskoye Caspian Sea gas field.

The French firms are taking a 25% stake while Kazmunaigaz retains 25%. The other 50% is owned by Russian energy giant Lukoil.

Meanwhile, construction consortium Spie Capag signed memorandums to build a pipeline that will link the giant Kashagan oil field to the Caspian Sea, circumventing Russian supply routes to Europe.

Other agreements included a plan for train conglomerate Alstom to help build a tramway in the capital, Astana, and for Thales to supply the Kazakh army with radios.

The business deals come despite criticisms from rights groups that Kazakhstan flouts basic democratic rights.

Despite the criticism of its rights record, Kazakhstan is set to become the first former Soviet republic to chair the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe - an intergovernmental trans-Atlantic security and democracy body.

Mr Sarkozy gave his backing to Kazakhstan's chairmanship, saying "it is a choice for peace".

He said he had raised his concerns over human rights in Kazakhstan with Mr Nazarbayev.

"The best way to resolve problems, and there are problems and I have talked to the president, is not necessarily to come and give lessons," said Mr Sarkozy in a news conference with Mr Nazarbayev.

Kazakhstan's constitution was amended in 2007 to remove the limits on how many terms the president can remain in office.


[Asia-Pacific]
Page last updated at 18:10 GMT, Tuesday, 6 October 2009 19:10 UK
TV appeal for Asia quake victims
{BBC presenter Christine Bleakley presents an appeal on behalf of the Disasters Emergency Committee}
A major TV appeal has been launched by the Disasters Emergency Committee to help victims of the earthquake and typhoons in south-east Asia.

Four million people have been affected as their homes have been destroyed, crops ruined and services wiped out.

More than 1,000 people died in Indonesia after the quake struck on 30 September. Hundreds more died in two typhoons, mostly in the Philippines.

British rescue teams say work in the region is moving towards relief.

{{Millions have seen the world they know ripped apart around them}
Brendan Gormley}}

According to Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, 83,712 houses, 200 public buildings and 285 schools were destroyed.

Another 100,000 buildings and 20 miles of road were badly damaged and five bridges had collapsed.

DEC chief executive Brendan Gormley said: "The nature of these disasters vividly recalls the horrors of the 2004 tsunami. Millions have seen the world they know ripped apart around them."

He said although DEC member agencies were already responding, they urgently needed the public's help to fund their work.

"We recognise that these are difficult and uncertain times for many people in the UK too but we have no doubt that there will still be a strong desire to help."

The DEC is also asking for donations for victims of two typhoons that ripped through parts of the Philippines and Vietnam.

Donations can be made by ringing 0370 60 60 900 or visiting the DEC website.

news20091006reut1

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
UK researchers aim to prove farm climate cure
Tue Oct 6, 2009 1:41pm EDT
By Stuart McDill

EAST LINTON, Scotland (Reuters) - A modern take on the age-old farming technique of plowing charred plants into the soil could help tackle climate change and even food security, according to researchers in Scotland.

Their study is looking at biochar, a charcoal like substance produced from heating farm or food waste, which when plowed into the soil can store the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and may help retain nutrients and water.

The process of making biochar also produces low-carbon energy, including heat and an energy-rich gas which can be burned to produce electricity.

"The farmer can use his agricultural residues to produce clean energy. He is off-setting the fossil fuel usage that he would ordinarily have," said Jason Cook, a PhD student at Edinburgh University.

"By applying the char to the land he would (also) mitigate the need for oil-derived fertilizers," and lock away the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

"We don't understand everything -- but it does have huge potential," he said. Some scientists have questioned the benefit of biochar for soil fertility.

Cook is in the second year of biochar field trials at Stonelaws Farm in picturesque East Lothian. It is farmed by Colin Hunter, who remembers a similar technique being used when he was a child.

"The farm I was brought up on used to take the ash from the local village and put it on the soil and what we found was that we always got a higher yield on that area of the ground that had the ash put on it," he said.

Hunter has already adopted several environmentally friendly practices including minimum tillage which means he no longer ploughs his fields, reducing his carbon footprint and improving soil quality.

He has also diversified from simply growing oilseed rape, winter wheat and spring barley and now lets holiday cottages on the farm. He says he is particularly interested in harnessing the heat from the biochar production process for both the cottages and his grain drier.

SOIL

Biochar is made by heating plants or wood in airtight conditions to produce a carbon-rich residue. Plants absorb carbon from the atmosphere as they grow. Subsequently storing it in the soil removes the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.

One scientist estimated that turning 27 percent of global crop waste into biochar and plowing this into the soil could store 0.2 billion tonnes of carbon annually, compared with more than 8 billion tonnes annual global emissions from burning fossil fuels.

Dr Simon Shackley of the UK Biochar Research Center says farmers should be paid for trapping greenhouse gases in the soil. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that payments for low-carbon farm practices will be a vital component of a planned U.S. $80 billion cap and trade scheme.

But the idea of using charcoal to lock greenhouse gases in the soil has critics, ringing alarm bells among some environmentalists that it could spur deforestation. Its chief problem may be that it is barely proven on a commercial scale - something Cook wants to change.

"Climate change is real, it is happening and things need to be done here and now about it and this seems a remarkable way of actually doing something about it," he said.

(Reporting by Stuart McDill; editing by Gerard Wynn)


[Green Business]
Climate pundit seeks faster CO2 shipping cuts
Tue Oct 6, 2009 12:48pm EDT
By Jonathan Saul

LONDON (Reuters) - The United Nation's shipping agency must move faster to introduce mandatory efficiency measures for vessels, veteran environmental campaigner Jonathon Porritt said on Tuesday.

Failure do to so could result in a solution being imposed on the shipping industry by the European Union and others, he said.

Shipping and aviation are the only industry sectors not regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, which sets targets for greenhouse gas emissions by rich countries from 2008-12.

The seaborne sector accounts for nearly three percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and pressure has grown for cuts ahead of December's climate change summit in Copenhagen.

Delegates from member state countries of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in July approved non-compulsory technical and operational measures to reduce greenhouse emissions from ships.

"There is a sense amongst all of us that the IMO has ... been dragging its feet on all of this," Porritt said.

"Progress made has really been very slow indeed," he told Reuters in an interview.

The voluntary measures reached in July included an energy efficiency index to ensure the design of new vessels and existing ships were environmentally friendly.

The initiatives were circulated for trial use and will be discussed at the IMO's next committee session in March 2010.

CARBON WAR ROOM

The Forum for the Future charity, which Porritt co-founded, has joined British entrepreneur Richard Branson and others in a new group called the Carbon War Room seeking a more active stance from the IMO and the shipping industry to combating CO2.

The EU has signaled that in the absence of a proper agreement on CO2 cuts the EU could impose its own solution.

The bloc is likely to propose aviation and shipping should cut their respective carbon dioxide emissions to 10 and 20 percent below 2005 levels over the next decade.

"If the IMO is not able to raise its game, then the industry is going to find itself increasingly regulated to do what it is currently in a position to do voluntarily," Porritt said.

"The first thing would be to agree an absolute timetable for introducing these indexes," said Porritt, who stepped down as chairman of the UK government appointed Sustainable Development Commission this year.

An IMO spokeswoman said it had opted not to make binding decisions on climate change before December's summit.

"Rather, IMO looks to the Copenhagen Conference to provide, through a new framework treaty instrument, political insight and direction," she said.

"The organization stands ready to enact the necessary technical and operational measures needed to give effect to its members' relevant decisions."

Environmental groups argue the measures reached in July did not go far enough given opposition from China, India and Saudi Arabia.

Peter Hinchliffe, marine director with the International Chamber of Shipping, which represents 75 percent of the global industry, said it wanted to see a mandatory design index in the "fastest possible timescale," adding shippers were in a constant search for increased efficiency to cut CO2.

"We already called for mandatory application but it was thrown out by the member states," he told Reuters. "Many of them are preserving their position for Copenhagen."

(Editing by James Jukwey)


[Green Business]
European states split over EU-wide carbon tax plan
Tue Oct 6, 2009 11:12am EDT

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union countries are split over plans to introduce an EU-wide carbon tax on fuel, which could be proposed early next year.

The idea, which EU officials say has gained fresh momentum after losing impetus earlier this year, is supported by Sweden, which has its own carbon tax scheme, and France, which will implement a levy next February. But it is opposed by Britain.

The tax would add to the cost of fuel, encouraging fuel-efficient behavior and channeling funds to governments that might be used to ease the impact of climate change.

"We do not support the idea of a mandatory, pan-European carbon tax," a British diplomat said. "There needs to be clear justification for taking fiscal action at an EU, rather than national or local, level."

European tax commissioner Laszlo Kovacs raised the issue of a possible carbon tax to cover sectors such as road transport and agriculture at a meeting of the 27-country EU's finance ministers last week in Gothenburg, Sweden.

"The introduction of a new tax in the European Union has never been easy and particularly it's not easy in the time of a financial and economic crisis," Kovacs told reporters.

The levy would apply in areas not covered by the EU's main tool against climate change, the Emissions Trading Scheme, which forces industry to buy permits to emit carbon dioxide.

Like all EU tax measures, it would require the unanimous agreement of member states, and the assent of the European Parliament, to be adopted -- a lengthy process.

Clues to how it might appear come from a draft proposal that has been circulating in Brussels since early this year and has met with stiff criticism from many sides.

The early draft, obtained by Reuters, describes plans to align the taxation of diesel and petrol, but to leave out fuels made from plant biomass, such as bioethanol and biodiesel.

Petrol, jet fuel, diesel and gas oil would be taxed at anywhere between 0.01 and 0.03 euro (1.4 to 4.4 U.S. cents) per kg of carbon dioxide emitted.

The initial proposal from the European Union's executive the European Commission, is unlikely to come before next year after a new team of commissioners is picked.

"How it looks depends on how the new Commission sees things," a Commission spokeswoman said. "All we can say is that a revision of energy taxation will come and it will reflect the carbon content of fuels."

(Reporting by Pete Harrison, editing by Anthony Barker)

news20091006reut2

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
U.S. 2009 carbon emissions to fall 5.9 percent: EIA
Tue Oct 6, 2009 10:34am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, should fall 5.9 percent in 2009 as the recession cuts electricity and transportation fuel demand, the government said in a monthly forecast on Tuesday.

Demand for coal, which emits about twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas per unit of energy generated, should fall more than 9 percent in 2009 on the economic downturn, said the Energy Information Administration, the statistics arm of the Department of Energy, in its short-term forecast.

"Several factors contribute to a projected reduction of nearly 6 percent in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use in 2009, primarily associated with the economic downturn," EIA Administrator Richard Newell said.

Heavy industry demand for electricity should fall 11 percent in 2009 as manufacturing declines and raw steel production is expected to drop 40 percent.

The EIA slightly narrowed its 2009 emissions forecast. Last month, it predicted the year's emissions would fall 6 percent.

Many power generators are switching to burning natural gas as states crack down on carbon emissions and as Congress mulls climate legislation, which also pushed emissions down.

Weaker demand for transportation fuels, especially jet fuel and diesel for trucks, should account for 30 percent of the annual decline in carbon emissions, the EIA said.

Next year emissions should begin creeping up. The EIA said the projected recovery in the economy should help push emissions up 1.1 percent in 2010.

(Reporting by Timothy Gardner; editing by Jim Marshall)


[Green Business]
Major non-OECD must halt CO2 growth by 2020: IEA
Tue Oct 6, 2009 10:03am EDT
By David Fogarty and Gerard Wynn

BANGKOK/LONDON (Reuters) - Carbon emissions from a group of richer emerging economies including Russia, China and the Middle East must stop growing by 2020 to control global warming, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

Developing countries appeared far from committing to that, however, at Sept 28-Oct 9 talks in Thailand meant to drive agreement on a new climate pact in Copenhagen in December.

Rich countries must lead the way in a global effort to stop growth in carbon emissions from burning oil, coal and gas to produce energy, the IEA said on the sidelines of the U.N.-led talks in Bangkok.

Carbon emissions will fall by as much as 3 percent this year following the economic crisis, aiding the climate effort, added the energy adviser to 28 industrialized countries.

"We need an energy and environmental revolution," IEA chief Nobuo Tanaka told reporters in Bangkok. "We can deliver, it is achievable."

One consequence of firmer climate action would be less use for fossil fuels including oil, with demand peaking before 2020 as a result of efficiency measures and new access to wind and solar power, the IEA said.

That would ease global security of energy supply concerns, said Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist. "In the OCED countries oil imports in 2030 are 7 million barrels per day less," if the world agreed an ambitious climate deal, he said.

The IEA report, an early release from its annual World Energy Outlook, said $10.5 trillion extra energy investment would be needed from 2010-2030 to control carbon emissions, or between half and 1 percent of global economic output.

But those funds could be almost entirely offset by fuel savings following efficiency gains.

"The investments the world has to make to shift to a low-carbon economy will pay off and result in lower energy bills, less air pollution and help keep climate change under control," said John Nordbo, WWF technology and climate expert, responding to the report.

Danish minister of climate and energy, Connie Hedegaard, who will host the Dec 7-18 Copenhagen talks, said the IEA report showed the world needed a binding international climate agreement.

"The longer we postpone action, the more expensive it will be," she said in a statement.

SEA LEVELS

Limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius may avoid the worst extreme weather and sea level rise resulting from climate change, scientists say. That would require global carbon emissions to stop rising before 2020, according to the IEA.

A U.N. panel of climate scientists, the IPCC, said in 2007 carbon emissions must peak by 2015 at the latest, and then at least halve by 2050 from 2000 levels, to limit temperature rises to 2-2.4 degrees.

The IEA split climate action between the OECD, other major economies and the poorest nations. Emissions from the group of richer, OECD countries must fall steadily from 2007 levels. That would include South Korea and Mexico, not bound by the present Kyoto Protocol whose commitments expire in 2012.

Other major economies defined as Brazil, China, the Middle East, Russia and South Africa -- but not India -- would have to halt growth in their carbon emissions by 2020, the IEA said.

China -- the world's biggest carbon emitter -- on Monday accused rich nations of "killing" Kyoto by proposing for themselves more flexible arrangements to fight climate change.

(Additional reporting by Chisa Fujioka; editing by William Hardy and James Jukwey)


[Green Business]
Archipelago's Indonesia gold project approved
Tue Oct 6, 2009 6:45am EDT

MANADO, Indonesia (Reuters) - Indonesia's North Sulawesi has approved an environmental study for a gold project involving U.K.-based miner Archipelago Resources, the province's governor said on Tuesday.

The decision will allow Archipelago, which owns 85 percent of its Indonesian unit PT Meares Soputan Mining (MSM), to go ahead with its long-delayed development gold project.

(Reporting by Novie Waladow; Writing by Fitri Wulandari, Editing by Ed Davies)


[Green Business]
Burning coal deep down has huge potential, untested
Tue Oct 6, 2009 6:42am EDT
By Gerard Wynn

LONDON (Reuters) - Burning coal underground could be one of the next breakthroughs to increase the world's energy supply, similar to establishment of Canadian oil sands, executives and academics told a conference in London on Monday.

The world could exploit huge additional coal reserves that are too deep or remote to mine, using a technology that burns the fuel hundreds of meters underground.

But the approach is so far untested on a commercial scale, making the initial expense a concern for governments and investors. "The potential is huge," said Gordon Couch, from the International Energy Agency's Clean Coal Center.

"It needs a series of successful demonstrations. Despite 50 years of trials no commercial use has been demonstrated. Current pilots could result in commercial opportunities within five to seven years."

Higher energy prices and security fears and in particular advances in drilling -- the biggest single cost -- were focusing new attention on underground coal gasification (UCG).

The technology involves injecting air or oxygen into a coal seam, which is burned and heated to produce and then pipe to the surface an energy-rich gas that contains hydrogen, methane and carbon dioxide.

The gas could be burned to produce electricity or liquefied and turned into a liquid carbon fuel. Alternatively, the hydrogen could be separated for a transport fuel or used by the oil refining industry.

"We believe strongly that UCG is the next frontier for us," said Dzung Nguyen from Canada's Alberta Energy Research Institute.

"Thirty years ago no-one had heard of the oil sands industry, now it's the biggest oil reserve in North America," he said, adding that investment had cut by one third the cost of extracting heavy oil from sands in Alberta.

Successful UCG could access 628 billion tons of coal from Alberta's Mannville seam alone, 1,400 meters underground and too deep for mining, said Nguyen.

That compares with global coal production now of 6 billion tons a year, according to the IEA's Couch.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Half of Germany's coal reserves were below 1,500 meters and too deep for mining, said Thomas Kempka from the German Research Center for Geosciences. If developed on a commercial scale, UCG would produce the world's cheapest electricity, he added.

Researchers are working on particular problems, especially the danger of contaminating groundwater, as well as the extra greenhouse gas emissions from a new focus on burning high-carbon coal.

"When you burn coal it produces benzenes, weird aromatic compounds, tarry materials, ideally you want these generated in a totally sealed way," said Michael Stephenson, head of science energy at the British Geological Survey.

Research had to establish whether heating coal underground, cracking bedrock above and drawing in water, could contaminate surface supplies, he said.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the process could be cut by storing the carbon dioxide underground using an equally experimental technology called carbon capture and storage (CCS).

"We see UCG and CCS together as a bridging technology to the deployment of renewable energy" such as wind and solar power, said Germany's Kempka.

(Editing by Anthony Barker)

news20091006reut3

[Top News] from [REUTERS]

[Green Business]
Demand up for energy-efficient homes: survey
Tue Oct 6, 2009 2:14am EDT
By Nick Zieminski

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home theaters are passe. Home offices are in.

The long U.S. housing downturn has led homeowners to scale back both the size of houses and the amenities found within them, but consumers are still willing to invest in energy efficiency, according to a quarterly survey by an architects' trade group.

The survey by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) found budget-conscious Americans are less interested in having hobby or game rooms, media rooms, home workshops, or suites for au pairs or in-laws. Exercise rooms and additional laundry space are also less popular than a year ago, as are three-car garages, the AIA said on Tuesday.

The shift in tastes reflects worries about home values, tighter family budgets, and the threat of unemployment.

"Affordability is a big concern," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. "Homeowners are not looking to spend more on their home for frills, particularly if they don't think they can recapture that when they sell it."

Home offices are the most popular special-function room, the survey found. Almost 46 percent of architects said home offices are gaining in popularity, up about 5 percentage points from a year earlier.

The increase is due to the appeal of telecommuting and the growing number of Americans who are self-employed or who run small businesses that have had to give up office space.

Meanwhile, more consumers are asking architects to make sure their homes are energy-efficient. Two-thirds of architects said clients increasingly demand better insulation to lower heating and cooling costs. More are also requesting double- and triple-glazed windows, water-saving devices and solar panels.

The AIA's quarterly survey polled more than 500 architecture firms that focus on residential buildings. It reflects both work on new homes and improvements to existing spaces. A March AIA survey found a sharp decline in demand for high-end kitchen and bath amenities, amid concerns over cost and homes' eventual resale values.

SMALLER HOMES

The prolonged housing downturn has led Americans to downsize their homes. According to the U.S. Census, the median home size dipped for the first time in 13 years last year, to about 2,200 square feet, and has continued to fall in 2009.

Home sizes tend to shrink during recessions, AIA's Baker said, and were not likely to rebound in the recovery, since Americans no longer expect the steady price gains that helped justify costly expansions.

The AIA's survey results come against a backdrop of an improving U.S. housing market. While residential architecture billings continue to decline, they have rebounded from lows reached in the fourth quarter of 2008.

An $8,000 tax credit for home buyers, which is set to expire next month, has jump-started housing activity this year. New U.S. construction of homes and permits for future building reached a nine-month high in August, and home prices rose for the third consecutive month in July.

The AIA said its residential billings index -- a leading indicator of activity -- was at 38 in the second quarter, up 20 points from six months earlier. Separate measures of project inquiries and project backlogs have also rebounded.

The trade group predicts the lower-end affordable housing segment will be the first to recover, as lower prices and stable interest rates attract entry-level buyers. Luxury homes and vacation homes are among the weakest parts of the housing market, according to the AIA.

Entry-level buyers were priced out of the market at the start of the downturn four years ago, in defiance of historical norm, and the unusual pattern is now playing out in reverse.

"You can have a good, healthy market," Baker said. "Entry level buyers buy entry-level homes; those homeowners buy trade-up homes; those homeowners buy custom or luxury homes. You could have a good housing ladder with that scenario."

(Reporting by Nick Zieminski, editing by Matthew Lewis)