2,024年12月20日日銀会合に向けて結論から言うと155
- 1.今年の夏に0.25ポイント上げたため11月の雇用統計も悪
そうなので円高に触れる場面はあったとしても結局利上げはしない とおもいます。 - 2. また、
トランプの1月の就任に向けて米株市場の高まりと共に債権金利が 上がるため結局円安になりドルも強くなるだろうと思います。
背景:ピンクモスク
In conclusion, I expect the rate to rise to 155 yen ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on December 20, 2024.
- [ ] 1. Since the rate was raised by 0.25 points this summer, the employment statistics for November look bad, so even if there are times when the yen may appreciate, I don't think there will be an interest rate hike after all.
- [ ] 2. Also, with the US stock market rising ahead of Trump's inauguration in January, bond interest rates will rise, so I think the yen will weaken and the dollar will strengthen.
Background: Pink Mosque
Oct2024 YouTube https://youtu.be/tY8tLIdWif0
日銀ウォッチャー系youtuberです。
こんな時はジムじいの言葉を思い出したいと思います。
そういえば、リンギットが東南アジアの中で一番強いと思います。
I'm a YouTuber who watches the Bank of Japan.I was pretty beaten up last week.With Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister and the dollar rising in the US employment statistics,In addition, the worsening situation in the Middle East following Israel's attack on Lebanon led to higher oil prices, which in turn contributed to a stronger dollar.I wanna say , I can't predict so many things.As a result, I took a large loss.
I like to remember the words of Jim Rogers:what is happening now has happened before and will happen again.when something is presebted as novel or different,look to the past and you will always find a precedent there.
By the way, I think the ringgit is the strongest in Southeast Asia.Including Japanese yen.One of the economic indicators I often look at is debt to GDP.Japan's is 260%, while Malaysia's is 60%.Currently, 1 ringgit is about 35 yen.But I think it will be around 50 yen.