I would like tentatively to share the insights of Mr. Grant Newsham, a retired US Marine and a former diplomat and business executive who spent many years in Asia; also a senior fellow with the Center for Security Policy.
His theme is “Ukraine Invasion: Time for Beijing to Rethink Taiwan. Beijing may reckon it has underestimated Western backbone, the difficulties of seizing Taiwan, cost as measured in lives, economic and reputational harm to China.”
Xi Jinping and his people are no doubt paying close attention to events in Ukraine.
They may not like what they are seeing – and this should cause them to rethink a Taiwan seizure scenario on several fronts.
These include the military and operational, of course.
But as important, if not more so, they may need to reconsider assumptions about Taiwan’s willingness to resist.
Also they may want to reassess the willingness of the United States, the European Union (EU) and other free nations (such as Japan) to provide military support (direct or indirect) to Taiwan and impose punishing financial and economic sanctions on the PRC.
Beijing may reckon it has underestimated Western backbone, the difficulties of seizing Taiwan at a reasonable cost as measured in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) lives, the economic and reputational harm to China, and the risk of the PRC turning into an international pariah.
