Welcome to Issues in Japan.
I would like to tentatively share the analysis, insights and thoughts of Mr. Grant Newsham, who is a retired US Marine and a former diplomat and business executive who spent many years in Asia. He is a senior fellow with the Center for Security Policy.
The theme is: “Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?”
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has the hardware, weaponry, manpower, and capability to launch an assault across the Taiwan Strait. They’ve been planning for decades and just might think they can succeed.
The PLA might not do it the way American forces would, but China does a lot of things differently than the Americans. And they often do them very well......
If all Beijing achieves in the short term is publicly neutering the US in the Pacific, it goes a long way towards moving it towards its next step of bringing Taiwan to heel and regional domination.
This is what Vladimir Putin is doing to President Biden and the Europeans. Embarrassing the Americans, exposing weaknesses and sowing doubt. And he is exploiting fissures in the NATO alliance that over time can be widened by using military threats, economic pressure, and subversion – possibly leading to the fragmentation or diminution of NATO itself.
Beijing is no doubt taking notes......
Maybe a move against one of Taiwan’s offshore islands? Or interfering with shipping and aircraft to/from Kinmen or Matsu or Pratas islands?
Or perhaps force Taiwan and/or other countries’ shipping in the South China Sea to submit to Chinese monitoring, inspection, and approval before entering the South China Sea?
Xi Jinping no doubt has his people giving him even more options......
All this to say, Beijing might be inclined to wait a while and let its political warfare efforts simmer ー and thaw potential resistance. Political warfare means using China’s prodigious economic, diplomatic, political, psychological, and implicit military pressure to establish influence in a nation.
There’s Still Political Warfare.....
The cumulative effect isn’t just a political warfare win against Taiwan, but against China’s biggest target, the United States. Beijing is lighting so many small fires that can distract and overwhelm the US response, and ultimately could erode US resistance. .....
Thus, the plan might be to don’t do anything “too much” that would force the Americans to fight. But do just enough to humiliate and discredit them. .....
The same American contingent will also argue that China’s help ー on climate change/North Korea/fill-in-the-blank ー demands that the US overlook Chinese moves against Taiwan ー as long as they are “modest” and thus no “threat to American national interests.”.....
If in 2022 the US has serious domestic problems, such as widespread rioting, and appears chaotic, distracted and unable to put up a fight, Xi Jinping just might be tempted to take his chances against Taiwan......
Indeed, read the news each day and it seems the Biden Administration and America’s ruling elite are trying to give Xi Jinping a reason to go for broke.
From 2023 onwards, however, I think China will assault Taiwan ー either because the United States is still chaotic and appears unable to defend Taiwan, or even its position in Asia. And if somehow the Americans get their wits about them and are strengthening their capabilities and alliances, Beijing just might see its window of opportunity closing. ............
For detailed information please visit the following:
https://youtu.be/bxq5BHo9bus
That’s all for now.
