news/notes20090430a

[Gauging the spread: WHO viral infection phases]
（新型インフルエンザに対するＷＨＯ警戒レベル、フェーズ1から６）

Phase 1: No animal viruses circulating are causing infections in humans.

Phase 2: An animal flu virus is known to have caused human infection and is considered a potential pandemic threat.

Phase 3: Limited human-to-human transmission may occur. This does not indicate the virus has gained transmissibility that would cause a pandemic.

Phase 4: Human-to-human transmission able to cause "community-level outbreaks". Significant increase in pandemic risk but it is not a foregone conclusion.

Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. A strong signal that pandemic is imminent.

Phase 6: Pandemic phase, characterised by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region along with phase 5.


7 Ways to Protect Yourself
（自衛防護策の７カ条）

"[Prevention is] no different than any other pandemic flu, and those are kind of simple things -- wash your hands a lot, don't shake hands or hug or kiss people if you're sick, don't go to work, self-qurantine yourself," said Peter Katona, an associate professor at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Medical Center.

1. Wash hands frequently: This will lessen the chance of carrying or transmitting any viruses that normally get stuck on the hands in day-to-day activities. Try to avoid rubbing eyes or touching nose with dirty hands. Wash hands often with soap and water, especially after coughing or sneezing. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective.

2. Try to avoid people who are coughing and sneezing: The CDC advises people to cover their nose and mouth with a tissue when they cough or sneeze and throw the tissue in the trash after using it. Try to teach your kids to do the same. Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.

3. If experiencing flu-like symptoms, don't go out -- stay at home. Call a healthcare provider, particularly if a person has been to Mexico, southern California and southern Texas. The CDC recommends that people who get sick stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

4. Taking a trip to Mexico? Rethink your plans. Schaffner said that unless you have a compelling reason to go, you might want to reconsider. Many airlines, including Continental, US Airways and American Airlines, are waiving cancellation fees on tickets to Mexico.

5. Stay informed and plan ahead: Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said it's important to stay informed about what's going on in one's community, and whether the authorities -- such as the state or county health departments -- have issued any recommendations. It's a good idea to plan for what to do if children's school is closed.

6. Keep sick kids out of school, and stay home from work if you are sick. Aside from providing needed rest, such absences protect others from catching whatever you or your kid has. Keep at least a few feet's distance if you have the flu or are interacting with someone who has the flu. The communicable distance for most flu viruses is about three feet, so keep clear of this radius in order to avoid spread. If dealing with a flu case at home, make sure the flu sufferer (and even those who interact with this person) wear facial masks to lower the chances of spread.

7. Avoid surfaces and objects that may be handled by many people. For kids, this may include doctor's office toys, surfaces that a lot of other kids are touching. Keep all surfaces and objects around the house clean. This becomes especially relevant if there is someone in that house who is sick or has the flu already. Try to teach kids not to touch their faces. This is like mass transit for germs: straight from the hands to the eyes, nose and mouth.


[Biography of the Day] from [Britannica]


Édouard Manet
（フランスの画家 エドゥアール マネ）

French painter Édouard Manet, who died this day in 1883, broke with the historical tradition of illusionism and paved the way for Impressionism with such works as Déjeuner sur l'herbe (1863; “Luncheon on the Grass”).


[On This Day] from [Britannica]

1789: George Washington inaugurated
（1789: ジョージ ワシントン初代大統領に就任）

George Washington, the first president of the United States, was inaugurated this day in 1789 in Federal Hall in New York City, addressing his constituency on “the proceedings of a new and free government.”

news/notes20090430b

[TODAY'S TOP STORIES] from [The Japan Times]

[NATIONAL NEWS]

Thursday, April 30, 2009
Cabinet approval rating up 6 points as Ozawa slides
（内閣支持率６％上昇、小沢批判による）

(Kyodo News) The approval rating for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso rose 5.9 percentage points from late March to 29.6 percent, a Kyodo News survey showed Wednesday.

The disapproval rating came to 56.2 percent, down 7.3 points from the March survey, according to the nationwide telephone survey conducted Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest poll also showed that 65.5 percent of the 1,014 randomly selected respondents want Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa to step down over the indictment of his top secretary in connection with alleged illegal funds from general contractor Nishimatsu Construction Co., compared with 66.6 percent in the previous survey.

The results suggest approval of the Aso Cabinet rose thanks to persistent criticism of Ozawa, even as the disapproval rate for the administration remains high.

Asked who they would rather have as prime minister, 39.8 percent said Aso, up 6.7 points from the March poll and 13.7 points higher than the percentage preferring Ozawa.

Asked about the proportional representation system in the next election for the House of Representatives, 30.8 percent of the respondents said they will vote for Aso's Liberal Democratic Party, while 37.9 percent said they favor the DPJ, which maintained its lead over the LDP in the category.

A Lower House poll must be held by the fall.

The LDP and DPJ, however, are still neck and neck in the latest survey, with 29.4 percent of the respondents supporting the LDP and 29.7 percent backing the DPJ.

The LDP grabbed the top position in the previous poll in late March after being overtaken by the DPJ in a survey in early March, but the positions were reversed again in the latest poll.

The nationwide poll also suggests that a majority do not have faith in a 14.7 trillion extra budget for fiscal 2009 to finance fresh government stimulus measures, with 55.0 percent saying little will come of it, against 38.6 percent who gave high marks to the budget.


[NATIONAL NEWS]

Thursday, April 30, 2009
Aso-Wen talks flu-, Yasukuni-focused
（日中首脳、新型インフルエンザ対策で協力、靖国にも言及）

BEIJING (Kyodo) Tokyo hopes to cooperate with Beijing to prevent the swine flu epidemic from spreading further and also wants to help the world overcome the economic crisis, Prime Minister Taro Aso told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Wednesday, according to China's state-run media.

"Japan wants to work together with China to prevent the swine flu epidemic from spreading further," China Central Television reported.

The recent deadly swine-avian-human flu virus has emerged as a topic for the countries' leaders, after more than 150 people have died in Mexico from the malady, which has spread to other areas, reportedly killing an infant in Texas as well.

The World Health Organization raised its alert level Monday to Phase 4, which means human-to-human transmission of the virus can cause community-level outbreaks.

Aso also said Japan and China should "strengthen coordination" to contribute to a global economic recovery, according to the CCTV report.

Wen, for his part, reminded Japan about the sensitivity of issues related to history at their talks in Beijing. Last week Aso drew China's ire by sending an offering to Tokyo's war-related Yasukuni Shrine.

Thorny bilateral issues, including Aso's offering to Yasukuni Shrine, raised tensions between the two countries somewhat before his arrival in Beijing.

The shrine, which honors Japan's war dead, as well as Class-A war criminals, is seen by Tokyo's neighbors as a symbol of Japan's militarist past. It has been a source of discord in relations between Tokyo and Beijing.

Wen told Aso that the history issue is "very sensitive" and expressed hope that Japan will "adhere to agreements and appropriately deal" with the matter, according to CCTV.

Aso replied that Japan's position has not changed from the view expressed in a landmark 1995 statement by then Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, who apologized and expressed remorse for Japan's wartime conquest, atrocities and colonial occupation.

"Bilateral relations have improved and developed through both sides' joint efforts," Wen said.


[NATIONAL NEWS]

Thursday, April 30, 2009
Inspectors board, clear Mexico jet
（機内検疫、メキシコ機に実施）
Japanese residents coming home; all on direct flight avoid quarantine, despite slight hiccup

(Kyodo News) Japanese quarantine inspectors Wednesday boarded the first direct flight from Mexico since the alert for a global influenza pandemic was raised to an unprecedented level.

Narita airport quarantine officials said no passengers or crew members apparently contracted swine flu.

Seven inspectors wearing protective clothing and masks walked through the arrival gate and onto an Aeromexico flight that arrived at 6:30 a.m. with 185 passengers and 13 crew members aboard.

A Japanese man who complained of throat pain was briefly isolated until a simple test administered on the scene returned a negative result.

Passengers said about 20 people seated near the man protested when an inspector informed them they would likely have to remain on board for six hours if the result was positive. Eventually, all the passengers and crew deplaned the Boeing 777 about an hour after arrival.

Among the passengers were Japanese families living in Mexico, as well as a Japanese professional boxer who regularly fights in the country. A 38-year-old housewife whose husband is still in Mexico said she flew back to Japan with her two daughters.

"Our children's Japanese school was closed. As the alert level was raised, we decided to return to Japan," she said.

Another passenger, Keiko Yanagisawa, 35, a diving instructor in Mexico, said she was surprised at the strict inspection upon arrival.

"I heard that we would be checked after arrival, but I didn't think the inspection could be this strict," she said.

The boxer, Tomoki Kameda, estimated that about one in 10 people were wearing masks in Mexico City shortly before he cut short his training and fight schedule to leave the country.

"I was wearing a mask myself because I was worried (about the flu). My family got worried, too, so I returned to Japan ahead of schedule," said the 17-year-old Kameda, the youngest of the popular Kameda boxing brothers.

Officers from the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry began in-flight quarantine inspections Tuesday at Narita and Kansai airports after the World Health Organization raised the alert level to Phase 4 Monday, amid reports that the swine-avian-human flu epidemic was spreading on a global scale.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmissions of the virus and can cause community-level outbreaks. It is two levels shy of the highest, Phase 6, which is issued for a full-blown global pandemic.

Cuba and Argentina have reportedly suspended direct flights from Mexico because of the flu outbreak.

Meanwhile, health minister Yoichi Masuzoe renewed the call for calm in response to threat of the disease.

"I advise you to wash your hands and gargle when you get home, and you should go to hospitals or clinics or consult with public health centers if you have the smallest of worries about the flu," Masuzoe said in a speech at a trade union rally in Tokyo. "You're required to behave calmly."

Away from the airports, many enjoyed the first day of the Golden Week holiday.

At Tokyo Disneyland, a 60-year-old man accompanied by his grandchildren said he is not worried as nobody in Japan has been confirmed or suspected of having the flu.

Movie theaters in Tokyo were also packed.

"I feel like the pandemic is happening somewhere far away from Tokyo," said a 37-year-old female office worker who came to a movie theater in Hibiya.

In Mexico, where the influenza originated, 2,498 people have been confirmed infected or are suspected of being so. At least 159 of them have died. Outbreaks of the new flu in humans have also been confirmed in the United States, New Zealand, Canada, Britain, Spain and Israel, while suspected cases have been reported in more than 10 countries, including in Europe, Asia and Latin America.

N.Z. fears tourist fall

WELLINGTON (Kyodo) New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, during talks Wednesday with visiting Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone, voiced concern over a possible drop in Japanese tourists to the country due to the outbreak of swine flu, Japanese officials said.

Key, who also doubles as tourism minister, said the New Zealand government has taken steps to prevent swine flu from spreading at an early stage and called for efforts by Tokyo to avoid a decline in Japanese travelers to the country, the officials said.

More than 10 people in New Zealand have been confirmed as being infected with the new flu that broke out in Mexico.

Nakasone also met with New Zealand counterpart Murray McCully and agreed to cooperate on information exchanges regarding antiflu measures, the officials said.

news/notes20090430c

[Today's News] from [The Guardian]

Many more UK swine flu cases likely, warns chief medical officer
Sir Liam Donaldson says he is 'concerned but not alarmed' after WHO raises swine flu threat level

Severin Carrell, Haroon Siddique and agencies
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 30 April 2009 10.51 BST
Article history

The chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said today he was "concerned but not alarmed" after the World Health Organisation raised its swine flu global epidemic threat level to phase five, the second highest.

He said the UK would see "many more cases" of swine flu but most people would make a good recovery.

"To put things in proportion, in any flu – even the seasonal flu – there are some deaths, often of elderly people and the very frail," he told BBC Breakfast. "What we will see is many more cases, but on the whole most people make a good recovery from flu."

He said it was impossible to say what the death rate would be until more was known about the virus. "I'm concerned, but I'm not alarmed. We have a very strong plan in place," he said.

The WHO alert upgrade came after three new British cases of swine flu were confirmed yesterday and the Department of Health stepped up its emergency response with plans to purchase additional stocks of antiviral drugs and face masks.

All three Britons – a 12-year-old girl from Paignton, Devon; a 41-year-old woman from Redditch, Worcestershire; and a 22-year-old man from north-west London – had recently returned from Mexico. The child was on the same flight into Birmingham as the Scottish honeymoon couple who tested positive earlier this week. Her school, Paignton community college, has been closed for a week. All 267 pupils in her school year and all teachers who might have come into contact with her have been given the antiviral drug Tamiflu, the college principal, Jane English, told a press conference today. English said the girl attended school on Wednesday to Friday last week after returning from holiday but had not been in since.

Dr Sarah Harrison, a public health consultant for Torbay Care Trust, said of the afflicted pupil: "She is suffering from flu, so she's not feeling very well, but she's improving." She said 340 courses of Tamiflu had been given out in Devon and dozens of people were being monitored for the virus in the area.

It emerged today that a second couple from Scotland who feared they had contracted swine flu on their honeymoon in Mexico have been given the all clear.

Pete and Jenny Marshall had been on holiday in the same resort, Cancún, as the first Britons to contract the virus, Iain and Dawn Askham from Polmont near Edinburgh, and also reported flu-like symptoms and other illnesses.

They were among 14 new suspected cases revealed on Monday, and ordered to stay indoors at their home in the Gorgie area of Edinburgh, with their close friend Gemma O'Brien, who had been staying with them.

The couple were among 15 Scots yesterday given the all-clear, after their tests came back negative or their cases were "declassified". In response to questions in the Scottish parliament, the Scottish first minister, Alex Salmond, said there were 27 suspected cases in Scotland. A further 41 people – including 10 with close contacts to the Askhams – have so far been cleared of infection after showing symptoms.

news/notes20090430d

[Today's Paper] from [Los Angeles Times]

South Korea's wartime sex slaves: Hoping for closure at the end of their lives
The 'comfort women' forced into slavery by Japanese soldiers have struggled for years to persuade the world to acknowledge their ordeal. They're growing tired now, but not giving up.

By John M. Glionna
April 30, 2009

Reporting from Toechon, South Korea -- Kang Il-chul rides in the back of a van packed with gossiping old women. The 82-year-old girlishly covers her mouth to whisper a secret.

"We argue a lot about the food," she says, wrinkling her nose. "To tell you the truth, some of these old ladies are grouchy."

There are eight of them, sharing a hillside home on the outskirts of Seoul, sparring over everything from territory to room temperature.

Some wear makeup and stylish hats; others are happy in robes and slippers. A few are bitter, their golden years tarnished by painful memories; others have sweet dispositions and enjoy visiting beauty salons or performing an occasional dance in the living room.

But they all share one thing: Decades ago, they were forced to serve as sex slaves for Japanese soldiers occupying the country before and during World War II. They were repeatedly raped and beaten over months and years.

Now time is running out for the halmoni, or Korean grandmothers. About 150,000 to 200,000 Korean women served as Japanese sex slaves, most living out their lives in humiliated silence.

When activists brought the issue to light in the early 1990s, officials sought out survivors. While many were too ashamed to come forward, officials registered 234 women.

Ninety-three are still alive, according to a nonprofit group that looks after them.

In 1992, some of the so-called comfort women volunteered to live at a new House of Sharing established by Buddhist organizations and philanthropists. There is a full-time chef and nurse and volunteer caregivers. There are regular art classes, exercise sessions and trips to the doctor. Kang is the youngest of the eight remaining residents. The oldest is 92.

They are part Golden Girls, part adamant activists.

Holding out hope for closure before they die, they are waging a battle to persuade the world to acknowledge their ordeal. They are seeking reparations and a formal apology from the Japanese government. They have also pressured the South Korean government to speak out.

Japan's response has been mixed. After the war, the government maintained that military brothels had been run by private contractors. But in 1993, it officially acknowledged the Imperial Army's role in establishing so-called comfort stations.

Conservatives in the political establishment still insist there is no documentary evidence that the army conducted an organized campaign of sexual slavery -- a contention challenged by many researchers.

The testimony of the women of the House of Sharing is the riposte to those who say there is no evidence that Korean women were forced to sexually service Japanese troops. They gather every Wednesday outside the Japanese Embassy in Seoul or at various South Korean government offices. They unfurl their banners and mostly stand in silence, unflinching as guards snap their pictures. Over 17 years, they have picketed 861 times. Some have traveled to Washington to testify before Congress.

They are host to 30,000 visitors a year at the House of Sharing, part of a complex that includes the Historical Museum of Japanese Military Sexual Slavery.

They have been poked and prodded like laboratory specimens, their daily lives chronicled by sociologists, their rudimentary artwork studied to gauge the long-term emotional effects of trauma.

Now, many are tired, their years as rabble-rousers behind them. There's a changing of the guard. With a gruff, drill sergeant's demeanor, Kim Kun-ja calls herself a "troublemaker." For years, she was among the loudest activists. The others call her No. 1.

Today the 84-year-old uses a walker. She fell twice recently and rarely gets out of bed.

"We are all mentally ill and physically damaged," she says, eating a bowl of soup. "But I don't want to talk about it anymore. It brings up bad memories from the bottom of my insides."

In her place has emerged the indefatigable Kang. As a teenager, she recalls, she was lured from her home by Japanese soldiers who offered her caramel candy.

On this day, Kang receives a group of 20 mothers who sit in a semicircle on the dormitory floor. Perched on the edge of a couch, dressed in a silk shirt with a scarf wrapped stylishly around her neck, she waves her hands like a veteran politician trying to stir up a crowd.

With age, she has become more defiant, she says, and she is looking for justice.

"We have to resolve this problem before we die," she says. "We have to go away if God calls us, but until this is solved, I can't close my eyes happily."

Kang calls over to Kim, asking her to address the group.

Kim waves her off. "I am deaf," she says.


Nearby, resident Kim Soon-ok, 88, maternally strokes the hair of a visitor half her age who sits before her on the floor.

Some residents, never married, have no grandchildren to visit them. They welcome contact with strangers. They hold hands with visitors and seek long hugs as a grandfather clock in the corner ticks away their remaining days.

One carries a small stuffed rabbit. She says she likes animals more than humans.

Sometimes there is tension at the House of Sharing. Caretakers have placed each resident's photo on her bedroom door and place setting to avoid confusion and tiffs among the women, who can be territorial and cross.

"Open the window, I'm hot," one demands.

"Well, I'm cold," says the one next to her.

Often, the women have complaints. Meals served by the full-time chef are "tasteless," say several as they sit at the dining room table, talking like prisoners plotting a breakout.

Moved to temporary quarters during a renovation of the main dormitory, many complain that they no longer have keys to their rooms.

Kang, the group leader, suddenly pauses. "Shhhhh, someone is coming," she says as a nurse enters the room.

She sighs, saying that although life at the House of Sharing may not be perfect, "we have nowhere else to go."

During a tour of her room, Kang says she cannot tell the others about gifts she has been given by visitors. She holds up an exercise gripper. "If they knew this was given to me, there would be trouble," she says. She shows another gift, a silk scarf. "Isn't this pretty?"

Although many women no longer discuss their past, others seem to derive some relief from retelling their tortures.

Without prompting, Park Ok-ryun, 86, launches into an account of how, as an 18-year-old, she was abducted by two Japanese soldiers. She and a friend had gone to a stream to get water.

"Don't cry," she remembers the soldiers saying. "If you go with us, you can get some nice food and nice clothes."

Park grabs a listener's arm. "I was thrown into the truck and covered with a red-and-blue fabric," she says. She begged to be released, explaining that she had to return home to make dinner.

"But they said, 'Jackass, stop nagging,' and kicked me," she says, showing a jagged scar on her leg.

The women know that some people are listening. The U.S. Congress has called on Japan to apologize and "accept historical responsibility" for the sex slavery.

The Japanese government offered to start a fund, but the women refused the money, demanding that the government also accept responsibility for their suffering.

In a moment of quiet, Kang says that while they can never forget what happened, they must forgive the Japanese, if only for the emotional health of the next generation.

Then Kim, old No. 1, flashes a rare display of humor.

"Not all men are bad," she says, smiling. "There are good ones and there are bad ones."

news/notes20090430e

[Today's Paper] from [The New York Times]

World Health Organization Raises Swine Flu Alert Level

By DENISE GRADY
Published: April 29, 2009

The global spread of swine flu, a pandemic, is highly likely, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday and raised its alert level to Phase 5, the next-to-highest level in the worldwide warning system.

Phase 5 had never been declared since the warning system was introduced in 2005 in response to the avian influenza crisis. Phase 6 means a pandemic is under way.

The health organization said its decision was based on the continuing spread of swine flu in the United States and Mexico, particularly the increasing numbers of unexplained cases among people not exposed to travelers or to institutions like schools or hospitals where many people have close contact with one another and high rates of transmission might be expected.

“All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans,” Dr. Margaret Chan, director general of the organization, said at a news conference in Geneva. “Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.”

The first death from swine flu in this country — of a 23-month-old child from Mexico who was being treated in Houston — was reported on Wednesday, along with more infections and hospitalizations.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 91 confirmed cases from 10 states, up from 64 cases in 5 states on Tuesday.

Dr. Chan emphasized the need for calm, but at times spoke as if a pandemic had already begun, saying, for instance, “W.H.O. will be tracking the pandemic.” She also emphasized that developing countries tended to have more severe flu epidemics than rich ones, and said her organization and others would need to make special efforts to help poorer nations.

She called for global solidarity, saying, “After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic.”

President Obama, terming the outbreak “cause for deep concern but not panic,” took the unusual step of using a prime-time televised news conference, convened to mark his 100th day in office, to deliver a public health message to the American people.

“Wash your hands when you shake hands, cover your mouth when you cough,” he said from the East Room of the White House. “It sounds trivial, but it makes a huge difference. If you are sick, stay home. If your child is sick, take them out of school. If you are feeling certain flu symptoms, don’t get on an airplane.”

With public health officials recommending that schools close if there are more confirmed or suspected cases, Mr. Obama urged parents and businesses to “think about contingency plans” in case of such closings.

He said he was calling on Congress to authorize an immediate $1.5 billion to “support our ability to monitor and track this virus” and to build the supply of antiviral drugs.

“The more recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S.,” the C.D.C. said on its Web site. More hospitalizations and deaths are expected, the site said, because the virus is new and most people have no immunity to it.

Dr. Chan said that government preparedness plans could include steps like ensuring that laboratories can test for the disease and that health systems can identify and treat cases, track an outbreak and prevent the virus from spreading in hospitals and clinics. She said governments should also decide on measures like closing schools and discouraging or banning public gatherings.

Mexico, for instance, has prohibited people from eating in restaurants and ordered most stores and other businesses to close for several days starting Friday, a move apparently intended to keep people at home during what is traditionally a long holiday weekend.

At a news conference in Mexico City on Wednesday night, Mexico’s secretary of health, José Ángel Córdova, also announced that the national government would close all but essential offices during the same time period. The government did not suspend mass transportation or close airports and asked that supermarkets and pharmacies remain open.

In the United States, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the outbreak had caused such concern because officials had never seen this particular strain of the flu passing among humans.

“There is no background immunity in the population, and it is spreading from human to human — all of which has the potential for a pandemic,” Dr. Fauci said.

Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that officials had no way of predicting whether the outbreak would become more serious.

“You don’t know if this is a virus that will fizzle in a couple of weeks or one that will become more or less virulent or severe in the diseases it causes,” Dr. Besser said.

He said officials must follow government plans for a pandemic because of that unpredictability.

“If we could see into the future, it would be wonderful so that we could tailor all our responses specifically to what is occurring,” Dr. Besser said.

The disease centers’ count of 91 confirmed cases in the United States did not include some later reports by states that confirmed cases after the C.D.C. tally was posted. In addition, there were suspected cases in Louisiana and Delaware. Kits being provided to the states and other countries will allow them to test for the virus on their own and obtain results within a few hours.

New York City added 5 new confirmed cases, bringing its total to 49. All have links to Mexico or St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, where the virus first surfaced in New York, health officials said. The city identified five more probable cases.

The total in Canada rose to 19, from 16. In Mexico, the number of confirmed cases of the flu rose to 99 from 49, and the number of deaths from confirmed cases of the flu was increased to 8. The number of suspected cases is much higher.

Kathleen Sebelius focused on the outbreak on Wednesday during her first news conference as the Obama administration’s secretary of health and human services. “We’re determined to fight this outbreak and do everything we can to protect the health of every American,” Ms. Sebelius said.

She noted that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had recommended that schools close only if a student is found to be infected. More aggressive steps are under discussion, Ms. Sebelius said, but officials realize that closings can cause problems for families.

“What happens to parents? Where do children go?” she asked.

Dr. Besser, who joined the news conference via a video feed, said the most recent cases included patients of a broad range of ages, with two-thirds of all cases occurring in people under 18.

“There have been five hospitalizations so far, including the child who died. But we have a number of suspect cases that have been hospitalized and we expect that number to go up,” he said. Dr. Besser said that a quarter of the nation’s stockpile of 50 million treatments of antiviral medicines would be distributed to states by Sunday.

The United States has no plans to close international borders because, Dr. Besser said, such closings are not effective in slowing pandemics. When Hong Kong was hit with severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, “increased border screening on entry and exit was not an effective way of identifying cases or preventing transmission,” he said.

Nonetheless, Customs and Border Protection agents have stepped up efforts to spot sick travelers.

Some elected officials have begun to question the decision to leave the borders open. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano was grilled by senators on Wednesday who asked whether her agency was doing enough to stop the virus from spreading from Mexico. The senators, including John McCain of Arizona and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, asked several times why the administration had decided against closing the border and banning travel to Mexico.

news/notes20090430f

[Today's Newspaper] fom [The Washington Post]

Fort Worth Shutters All Schools; WHO Warns of Likely Pandemic
6 Possible Cases Investigated in Md. as Global Alert Is Raised

By Rob Stein and Debbi Wilgoren
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, April 30, 2009; 8:29 AM

The city of Fort Worth is shutting down its school system for 10 days in an effort to stop the spread of swine flu, officials said last night, even as top U.S. leaders warned parents not to take children from closed schools to daycare, and global health authorities raised the alert level for the outbreak to one notch below a full-scale pandemic.

Appearing on television news shows this morning, Vice President Biden said he hoped employers "will be generous" in allowing parents to take time off to keep their children home if there has been a confirmed case of flu in their school, since sending them to a daycare center with lots of other children, or bringing them to the workplace, would offer the same potential for the virus to spread.

Biden also seemed to recommend against using mass transit, answering a question about whether he would advise his own family against flying to Mexico, the disease's epicenter, by saying: "I would tell members of my family -- and I have -- that I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. It's not just going into Mexico. If you're any place in a confined aircraft and one person sneezes, it goes all the way through the aircraft."

President Obama, in a nationally televised news conference last night, took a more cautious approach, saying people should avoid mass transit, schools, workplaces and other confined spaces if they are experiencing flu-like symptoms.

Both Obama and Biden continued to rule out closing the U.S.-Mexico border, saying it was an overly drastic step that would not be effective in stopping the spread of a virus that clearly has already crossed the border. They emphasized that hand-washing and other basic precautions remain the best ways to fight the disease.

The 27-nation European Union today will consider a request from the government of France, where 30 possible cases of the virus are under investigation, to suspend all flights from member countries to Mexico. New cases of the virus were reported in Switzerland and Peru overnight, bringing the number of countries with known cases of the flu to nine.

The Geneva-based World Health Organization agency raised the alert level for the second time in three days, elevating it to one notch below a full-scale pandemic, after concluding that the virus was causing sustained outbreaks in the United States and Mexico.

The heightened alert -- issued to convey the message that the world is probably on the verge of a pandemic -- is intended to prompt every nation to activate an emergency response plan, to spur pharmaceutical companies to increase production of antiviral drugs and help speed development of a vaccine, and to prod bankers to help poor countries afford measures to fight the virus, officials said.

In the Washington area, officials in Maryland announced yesterday that they were investigating six probable cases of the disease -- three each in Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties -- and as at least 10 more were under investigation at the University of Delaware.

The first death from the disease in the United States came when a 22-month-old boy from Mexico City succumbed Monday at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston. The child, who had unspecified "underlying health problems," according to U.S. health officials, had taken a flight with his parents from Mexico City to Matamoros, Mexico, on April 4 to visit family in Brownsville, Tex.

After developing a fever April 8, the child was hospitalized in Brownsville and then, with his condition worsening, was transferred the next day to Houston.

State health officials were trying to determine when and where the boy became infected and how many people came into contact with him and his family, but they said no other relatives or anyone else had fallen ill.

"Texans need to know there is no cause for panic, and Texans can be assured that the state will take every necessary precaution to protect the lives of our citizens," said Gov. Rick Perry (R), as he issued a "disaster declaration" in response to the outbreak.

Officials suspended high school sports events statewide until May 11 and shut hundred of schools, sending tens of thousands of students home for at least two weeks. In Fort Worth, officials said they would close the entire 80,000-student district after confirmation of one case of swine flu at one campus the announcement that there are probable cases at three other schools.

Fort Worth officials urged parents not to send their children to day care or "any venue where groups of children may gather" and pleaded with the employers and the general population to make it possible for parents to accommodate this request.

"This is indeed an example of how the community can rally to support the health and well-being of students, their families and the District," schools superintendent Melody Johnson told reporters.

U.S. public health authorities have been worried that the virus would start producing the severe pneumonia and deaths that so far have been limited to Mexico, where the epidemic began. "The clinical picture in the United States is looking a bit more like the Mexican situation," said Nancy Cox, a flu expert at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The number of known cases in the United States hit at least 91, with infections confirmed in at least six new states -- Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Arizona, Indiana and Nevada -- more than doubling the number of states with confirmed cases. A Marine stationed in California also has a suspected case of swine flu.

The WHO's action came after the agency convened an unusual "global virtual science meeting" involving several hundred experts and officials to help assess the situation. The agency raised the alert from "phase 4" to "phase 5" two days after elevating it for the first time because the never-before-seen virus was spreading in Mexico.

Saying influenza viruses are "notorious for their rapid mutation and their unpredictable behavior," WHO Director General Margaret Chan told reporters: "This is an opportunity for global solidarity as we look for responses and solutions that benefit all countries, all of humanity. After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic."

The new alert level could prompt a variety of measures, including more intensive efforts to identify cases and stricter measures to prevent the illness's spread, such as discouraging or banning public gatherings.

With the virus now clearly being transmitted person-to-person in the United States, WHO officials said the outbreak appeared to be on a trajectory toward the highest alert level -- "phase 6" -- which is marked by sustained transmission in at least two regions of the world. That would mark the beginning of a pandemic -- a global spread of the virus.

"It's clear the virus is spreading, and we don't see any evidence of this slowing down at this point," said Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's interim assistant director general for health security and environment.

While there is a chance that the epidemic could stop on its own, officials said that such an outcome is impossible to predict and that governments around the world should plan for the worst.

"There may be a possibility that the virus will die out and stop, and that would be the best for us. But it can turn the other way. So the important point for us is to continue to maintain our vigilance and track its movement," Chan said. "Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world."

Asked whether the higher alert level will change the U.S. government's posture, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said: "We have been preparing all along as if this is going to be a stage six. Our efforts have been to stay ahead of whatever number the WHO assigns."

So far, U.S. officials have referred 49 travelers with suspicious symptoms entering through border checkpoints to federal, state or local health officials. Eight cases remain under investigation, and the other 41 were negative, Napolitano said.

news/notes20090430g

[Today's Papers] from [Slate Magazine]

One Step Away From Full-On Pandemic

By Daniel Politi
Posted Thursday, April 30, 2009, at 6:41 AM ET

It was supposed to be President Obama's big 100th-day party, but swine flu has taken over. Everyone leads with the World Health Organization warning that a global pandemic of the A/H1N1 virus appears imminent. The Geneva-based U.N. agency raised its global pandemic alert level to Phase 5 "because the virus appears to be spreading easily person-to-person and cases are appearing that have no link to Mexico," explains USA Today. The next level, Phase 6, means a pandemic is ongoing, and WHO officials made it clear that's where they think we're headed. "All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparation plans," said WHO Director-General Margaret Chan. The first death outside of Mexico was reported yesterday in Texas, where a 23-month-old boy from Mexico City died this week at a Houston-area hospital. The Washington Post points out that increasing the alert level "could prompt a variety of measures, including more intensive efforts to identify cases and stricter measures to prevent the illness's spread, such as discouraging or banning public gatherings."

The number of known cases in the United States is now at least 91 from 10 states, while Mexican officials say as many as 159 people may have died from the virus. The New York Times points out that while the WHO urged calm, Chan "at times spoke as if a pandemic had already begun." Speaking to reporters, Chan said: "The biggest question right now is this: How severe will the pandemic be?" The Los Angeles Times is by far the most optimistic and points out experts seem to be coming to the conclusion that, in its current form, the H1N1 virus "isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics." Although the virus does appear to spread easily, it doesn't seem like its mortality rate will get anywhere close to the typical flu season that kills 36,000 people in the United States. The Wall Street Journal points out that some Mexican doctors believe many more people had the virus than the official numbers indicate, "suggesting it could turn out to be a relatively mild pandemic." But, of course, the flu virus is very unpredictable, and we're still at the early stage, so it could just as easily mutate and become much deadlier.

As it stands now, swine flu "may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare," notes the LAT. At first many were worried about what appeared to be striking similarities between the current virus and the 1918 flu that killed approximately 50 million people. But upon closer analysis, experts are feeling optimistic about what they are seeing. "There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks," an influenza expert tells the LAT. There are suggestions that those who were exposed to the 1957 flu pandemic may have some automatic immunity from the current virus, which might explain why swine flu appears to be particularly deadly for young people. And, as has been emphasized before, experts cautioned against inferring that the increasing number of cases means the virus is spreading particularly quickly. "You don't ever find anything that you don't look for," a molecular virologist said.

Despite these encouraging signs, the WHO made it clear it's not taking any chances, particularly since influenza viruses are "notorious for their rapid mutation and their unpredictable behavior," Chan said, calling for global solidarity. "After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic." President Obama said the virus is "cause for deep concern but not panic," and he used a news conference to mark his 100 days in office to advocate for some common-sense health safeguards that everyone can take. The president urged people to wash their hands frequently, cover their mouths when coughing, and stay home if they are sick. "It sounds trivial, but it makes a huge difference," he said.

In a separate front-page piece, the NYT notes that while the WHO said that "containment is no longer a feasible option" and countries should be focusing their efforts on "mitigation," many are ignoring that advice. "The globe is a confusing welter of bans, advisories and alerts on some pork and some people," notes the paper. For the most part, experts agree that closing borders isn't going to help stop the spread of the virus. Questioned by lawmakers, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano defended the decision to not close the border with Mexico, saying it "would be a very, very heavy cost for what epidemiologists tell us would be marginal benefit." But others insist that containment is the only thing that has been proven to work, and it's what has prevented the H5N1 avian flu from spreading as well as stopped the 1976 swine flu from reaching the wider population.

The WP goes inside with a dispatch from a border town in California that notes people are acting as though the American side is simply safer, "complicating efforts to contain the outbreak." On the Mexican side, face masks and rubber gloves are ubiquitous, but 50 feet to the north they are a rare sight. People wearing face masks in Mexico, often take them off as soon as they cross the border. "They all do," a border agent said. "Defeats the whole purpose."

The WSJ goes high with, and the WP off-leads, news that talks between government officials and Chrysler's creditors broke down, making it virtually certain that the automaker will be filing for bankruptcy today. The WSJ hears word that administration officials are optimistic all their preparation for this eventuality will pay off and Chrylser will be able to get through bankruptcy court "perhaps in a matter of weeks." The Obama administration tried to convince Chrysler's lenders to accept $2.25 billion in cash in exchange for forgiving $6.9 billion in debt, but they refused. The WP details that under the administration's strategy, Fiat would take over management of the company, and the U.S. and Canadian government would pump $10 billion into the company. The NYT points out that Chrysler's bankruptcy filing "could serve as a preview of what a filing by General Motors might look like."

The WP and NYT front new numbers that show the U.S. economy contracted at "its steepest pace in 50 years" (NYT) in the six months ending in March, but analysts are forecasting better times ahead. In the first quarter of the year, output declined by a 6.1 percent annual rate, but household consumption increased. At the same time, businesses decreased their inventories, suggesting production will eventually have to increase. "The situation is not nearly as dark as the first-quarter number suggests," one analyst said. That's not to say things will be turning around quickly, but many think the declines won't be nearly as severe in the coming months, although unemployment is likely to continue increasing, until the economy begins to come back early next year. "A month ago, people were still worried about the next Great Depression," an investment strategist tells the Post. "Now there's a much more positive tone in society at large and in investors' minds."

In the LAT's op-ed page, Joseph Margulies, co-counsel for Abu Zubaydah, writes that his client "paid with his mind" for the abuses he suffered during interrogations conducted by the CIA. Partly as a a result of injuries he suffered fighting Communists in Afghanistan, which were exacerbated by the American interrogation techniques and extended isolation, "Abu Zubaydah's mental grasp is slipping away." He now "suffers blinding headaches and has permanent brain damage." He is extremely sensitive to sounds—the "slightest noise drives him nearly insane"—and has suffered around 200 seizures over the last two years. He also can't remember key details about his life. "Gradually," writes Margulies, "his past, like his future, eludes him."

The WSJ takes a look at how Jacob Zuma's overwhelming victory in last week's elections has left one vexing question: Who will be South Africa's first lady? Zuma, an avowed polygamist, has been married four times and now has two wives as well as one fiancee. "It's Big Love, South African style," declares the paper. Zuma's first wife, whom he married in 1975, defended the practice, saying that "if there's respect between the husband and the wives and among the wives themselves, and if he's able to treat us equally, then it's not hard." But now that Zuma is president it seems he'll have to choose since there's supposed to be only one first lady to carry out official duties. The first wife jokingly said she has first dibs on the position but insisted that nothing has been decided yet.

news/notes20090430h

[Top News] from [REUTRS]

Mexico shuts down economy as flu pandemic imminent
Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:47am EDT
By Catherine Bremer

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Felipe Calderon told his people to stay home from Friday for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy, after the World Health Organization said a swine flu pandemic was imminent.

Calderon ordered government offices and private businesses not crucial to the economy to stop work to avoid further infections from the new virus, which has killed up to 176 people in Mexico and is now spreading around the world.

"There is no safer place than your own home to avoid being infected with the flu virus," he said in his first televised address since the crisis erupted last week. [ID:nN29466276]

Twelve countries have reported cases of the H1N1 strain, with the Netherlands the latest to join the list. It said a three year-old who had recently returned from Mexico had contracted the virus.

Switzerland also confirmed its first case on Thursday in a man returning from Mexico. Peru reported what appeared to be the first case in Latin America outside Mexico, also in someone who had been to the country.

On Wednesday, Texan officials reported the first swine flu death outside Mexico, a 22-month-old visiting Mexican boy.

The World Health Organization (WHO) raised its alert level to phase 5, the last step before a pandemic.

"Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world," WHO Director General Margaret Chan told a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday.

"The biggest question is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start."

WHO later issued guidance recommending all countries track any suspect cases and ensure medical workers dealing with them wear protective masks and gloves.

The organization has stopped short of recommending travel restrictions, border closures or any limitation on the movement of people, goods or services.

WORLD STOCK MARKETS RALLY

Mexico's peso currency weakened sharply after the government called for chunks of the economy to close. The peso fell 1.6 percent to 13.83 per dollar.

But world stocks hit a four-month peak on economic optimism, showing little sign of fears over the flu.

Earlier in the week they fell on worries that a major outbreak could hit the struggling global economy.

Almost all those infected outside Mexico have had mild symptoms, and only a handful of people have been admitted to hospital.

In Mexico City, a metropolis of 20 million, all schools, restaurants, nightclubs and public events have been shut down to try to stop the disease from spreading, bringing normal life to a virtual standstill.

Several countries have banned pork imports, though the World Health Organization says swine flu is not spread by eating pork. Egypt started confiscating and slaughtering pig herds despite criticism from the United Nations.

"There is no reason to do that. It's not a swine influenza, it's a human influenza," said Joseph Domenech, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation's chief veterinary officer. The FAO is lobbying for a name change for the virus.

President Barack Obama said on Wednesday there was no need for panic and rejected the possibility of closing the border with Mexico.

"At this point, (health officials) have not recommended a border closing," he said. "From their perspective, it would be akin to closing the barn door after the horses are out, because we already have cases here in the United States."

Obama also praised his predecessor for stockpiling anti-viral medication in anticipation of such an outbreak.

EXPERT SAYS VIRUS RELATIVELY WEAK

Masato Tashiro, head of the influenza virus research center at Japan's National Institute of Infectious Disease and a member of the WHO emergency committee, told Japan's Nikkei newspaper it appeared the H1N1 strain was far less dangerous than avian flu.

"I am very worried that we will use up the stockpile of anti-flu medicine and be unarmed before we need to fight against the avian influenza. The greatest threat to mankind remains the H5N1 avian influenza."

The WHO's Chan urged companies who make the drugs to ramp up production. Two antiviral drugs -- Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline and Tamiflu, made by Roche AG and Gilead Sciences Inc -- have been shown to work against the H1N1 strain.

Guan Yi, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said the swine flu virus could mix with avian flu, or H5N1, to become a very powerful and transmissible virus. "Then we will be in trouble, it will be a tragedy."

Mexico's central bank warned the outbreak could deepen the nation's recession, hurting an economy that has already shrunk by as much as 8 percent from the previous year in the first quarter.

The United States, Canada and many other countries have advised against non-essential travel to Mexico. Many tourists were hurrying to leave, crowding airports.

European Union health ministers were due on Thursday to discuss coordinating possible restrictions on travel to and from Mexico and Southeast Asian health ministers will hold emergency talks to coordinate their fight against swine flu next week.

Japan's Masato Tashiro said the possibility of an overreaction to the outbreak was a concern. "Excessive curbing of corporate activity will be a problem. The best course of action is to adopt rational measures."