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news/notes20090429b

2009-04-29 10:41:30 | Weblog
[Today's News] from [The Guardian]

Swine flu pandemic plans stepped up as US investigates deaths
• Poorest nations would be hardest hit by a swine flu pandemic, says WHO
• California declares a state of emergency as 13 cases are confirmed

Chris McGreal in Washington and Rory Carroll in Mexico City
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 29 April 2009 03.52 BST
Article history

The World Health Organisation yesterday called on all governments to prepare for a swine flu pandemic and warned that if the ­disease took hold across the globe it could prove a disaster for ­poorer countries.

The call came as the number of confirmed infections rose above 100 on four continents and the head of the US Centres for Disease Control, Richard Besser, said the virus is almost certain to claim lives in America.

"I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection," he said.

In New York officials said 18 children from two schools were being tested for swine flu after showing symptoms, and the city's health commissioner said "many hundreds" more children who have fallen sick may be infected with the virus, although all appear to be recovering.

The possible infection of large numbers of children in the city could be evidence of human-to-human transmission of the disease outside the source of the ­epidemic, Mexico. A group of children from a New York school who visited the country recently may have spread the illness to other children since their return.

Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, appeared at a press conference to calm fears in the city. He said that so far the virus had behaved according to the pattern of normal seasonal flu.

"Additional cases do not come as much of a surprise – flu spreads, that's what a virus does. But the good news is that all our cases are mild, and are recovering."

Lastnight Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of California, declared a state of emergency following the confirmation of 13 cases of the illness.

The Mexican authorities said yesterday that three more people died of swine flu on Monday, bringing the toll to 152.

Mexico City's mayor, Marcelo Ebrard, ordered the closure of gyms, sports clubs and swimming pools. Schools, theatres and many other public places are shut and the city authorities are considering closing the extensive underground system.

Mexicans stripped supermarket shelves bare yesterday, prompted by growing concerns that the outbreak could result in a nationwide curfew.

Dr Keiji Fukuda, the WHO assistant director general for health security, said that while the organisation continued to say that a pandemic was not inevitable, the rising number of infections meant that governments should plan for the worst.

"Countries should take this opportunity to really prepare themselves for the possibility of a pandemic," he said.

The number of confirmed infections in the US, the largest outside Mexico, rose to 65 with new cases in Indiana and New Jersey. The US homeland security secretary, Janet Napolitano, said: "We anticipate that there will be confirmed cases in more states in the coming days."

Napolitano said the US will begin isolating people arriving at airports and borders who exhibit flu-like symptoms. President Obama has asked Congress for $1.5bn to build antivirus drug stockpiles and to monitor the spread of the disease.

But American officials were keen to keep the threat in perspective, noting that 36,000 people a year die of flu.

The number of confirmed swine flu cases continued to rise across the world to more than 100 outside Mexico. Yesterday there were 11 new cases of the disease in New Zealand and two in Israel, all among people who recently travelled to Mexico. Canada said it had seven more cases, bringing its total to 13. A second case was confirmed in Spain.

But while the latest confirmations were in developed nations, Fukuda warned that the greatest threat is to the poorest countries: "We know from history … that the poorer countries are the ones who really get hit the hardest, they are really hit disproportionately hard, and they also have the least resources to deal with these kind of situations," he said.

Suspected infections are being investigated in Brazil, Guatemala and Peru, all countries that would struggle to cope with a large-scale swine flu outbreak.

Although the flu season is passing in the northern hemisphere, the onset of winter in southern Africa and parts of South America means that the impact of any pandemic could be particularly severe on countries with fragile health services.

Fukuda said the WHO is still investigating why all the deaths have so far been confined to one country and is looking to see if infections are becoming established in communities or countries outside Mexico. But he warned that even if the disease does not take hold immediately, that does not mean the threat has passed.

"Even if activity goes down and quiet over the next few weeks, I think it would be very hard to know if it has disappeared," he said, noting that the 1918 flu pandemic was not initially taken seriously, fell into a lull for a few months, and then returned to claim millions of lives.

The authorities ordered all restaurants in Mexico City – there are more than 30,000 – to serve only takeaway food to reduce the risk from people congregating to eat. For the third consecutive day, pharmacies were sold out of face masks, prompting media advice on how to make home-made versions with cloth and tape.

US health officials said it would take several months to ready a vaccine.

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