Aging acceleration, Japanese medical market stall

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Over the past few years, almost all pharmaceutical companies, the domestic pharmaceutical market depicting the milk and honey:

Even if the medical market has reached tens of trillions, it will continue to grow high, and the speed will be faster and faster.

The core logic is roughly the same, that is, the domestic aging trend is irreversible and is accelerating. Since the elderly population is the main force of medical spending, the number of old people will increase, naturally, will bring an increase in medical consumption demand.

Listen, such logic is impeccable. But the fact, perhaps not this.

At the end of the 1990s, Japan aging accelerated, but the scale growth rate of medical market continued to decline, even negative growth.

According to the theory of economics, the market size = amount * price. The growth rate of the Japanese medical market has declined in the pressure of supervision, and the price of medical market fell, thus offset the increased "quantity".

Obviously, if only the "increment" brought about aging, the price change factor is ignored, then the "growing medical market", the big probability is only a desirable and unreasonable Utopia.

/ 01 / Japanese pharmaceutical industry, with aging trends

As the first country in Asia, the development of the Japanese pharmaceutical industry, can bring us many enlightenment.

From 1990 to 2010, Japanese aging began to accelerate. In just 20 years, the number of seniors over 65 years old in Japan accounted for about 10%, rising to about 25%, and the elderly population increased by 13 million.



However, the development of the Japanese medicine market has launched with the trend of population aging. According to Japanese Ministry of Labor, since 1991, the scale growth rate of Japanese medical market continues to decline:

In 1991, the growth rate of the Japanese medical market was approaching 15%. In 1992, it fell below 5% ... After 1997, the Japanese Medicine Market entered a negative growth era and lasted until 1999.

After 2000, the Japanese medical market returned to the growth trajectory, but the growth rate was still limited. During 2008, the growth rate of most years was between 0% and 5%.



Japan's entire medical market develops almost stagnation, and the days of head pharmaceutical companies are not good. It can be seen that Japan's largest pharmaceutical companies in Wudian Pharmaceuticals, 1991 to 2000 decade of battalion rate of only 3.25%.

This is not an example. Including Anstea, Sweet, Cooperative Qilin, etc., the complex growth rate of ten years is in the number of digits. And the revenue, such as a Japanese doctor, a well-known pharmaceutical, and a negative growth.



For Japan, although the number of seniors expands sharply, the pharmaceutical industry is lost ...

/ 02 / lost twenty years, the drug price reduction is too large

Why is the development of the Japanese pharmaceutical industry, will it face the market?

The reason is that the market has more powerful "negative power" to offset the increment of aging.

So, what is the mysterious power? What is it from? The answers are: "Price Reduction", "Ministry of Health".

Any country's medical career is a people's livelihood project. Japan of "National Medical Insurance" is typical. In 1960, medical insurance has achieved a 98% of people.

With the sharp expansion of the aging population, superimposed Japan's "medicinal health" mechanism, the phenomenon of drug rebate, etc., leading to rapid growth of medical expenses. In the 1970s, Japanese drug expenditures accounted for about 40% of the national medical expenses.

During the economic boom, Japan may not be too worrying about this. But the economic development of any country is impossible to continue.

In the 1980s, Japan began to enter the "lost twenty years", medical insurance and government are facing the pressure of financial resources, so Japan began to "hurt the killer" in drug prices.

On the one hand, the "foam" of the strong squeezed circulation is strong. In 1986, the average importance difference rate of Japan's medical treatment was 23%, and the decline in decline in 2004 has dropped to 6.3%.

On the other hand, Japan began to control drug pricing. In 1988, the government conducted a price adjustment of the medical insurance catalog, involving more than 13,000 drugs every two years, involving more than 6% of the average decline.



Thanks to a strong control measures, Japanese drug expenditures accounted for a rapid decline in the total proportion of medical expenditures. In 1992, this number was approximately 23%, and the beginning of 2000 fell below 20%.



In 2007, Japanese health expenditure accounted for 8.02% GDP, below the global average level of 9.65%. As an old population, Japan can drop to this extent, which is obviously very rare.

However, it is obvious that the Japanese Ministry of Health controls the cost of control, and it is never a good news to the pharmaceutical industry.

/ 03 / Innovation + Key to Growth Growth

In the case of the health control fee, the overall performance of Japanese pharmaceutical sections is not good.

Under the large price reduction, a large number of companies in the Japanese pharmaceutical industry closed. In 1995, the number of Japanese pharmaceutical companies was 1512, and this number fell to 1062 in 2003.



This is also reflected in the capital market. Between 1988 - Between 1996, the Japanese pharmaceutical sector index mid time to run the market. During this period, only two years in 1991 and 1993 exceeded the market.



Only a few drug companies have good performance during the control. For example, Wudian Pharmaceuticals staged a big "counter attack" that was close to 7 times during the period 1995-2000.

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So, behind these pharmaceutical companies, what is it benefited? Can be incatenated as "innovation + internationalization".

In terms of innovation, Wudian pharmaceutical is typical. In 1992, 1997, 1999, Wudang Pharmaceutical Heavy Bomb Drug Lamorazole, chopped, pioglitazone, so that the company's 1995-2000 revenue growth rate is not fast, but operating profit composite growth rate is close to 20 %, The final stock price rose sharply.

In the Japanese pharmaceutical industry, we can also find that during the control fee, the profit margin of innovative drugs is not affected, but there is an improvement.



However, for Japanese drug companies, it is not allowed to maintain performance on continuous growth only by innovation. After all, in the control fee environment, the growth of the medical market is relatively limited.

From 2005 to 2018, Anste from Japan's domestic income composite growth rate is only 2.3%, and the Wudian pharmaceutical is negatively increased (-1.25%).

In this context, Japanese head pharmaceutical companies have come out of the country. Overseas business has become the main growth point of Japan's innovative drug enterprises.

Also in 2005 to 2018, Anstea, Da Japanese Sumitomi Pharmaceutical, Yanfei, Tianbi Mitsubishi and other pharmached enterprises have 15.03%, 27.49%, 19.51%, 18.62%, and a long high In Japan's business growth.

Currently, including Austntai, Wudian Pharmaceuticals and other head pharmacies, overseas income accounts have exceeded 50%, making it a well-deserved global pharmaceutical enterprise.



It can be said that under the main trend of charge, the Japanese head pharmaceutical enterprises achieved the stable growth under internal and external attacks through research and development innovation and export, and finally responded in the stock price level, avoiding "lost" with the pharmaceutical industry. .



From the perspective of the development environment, the development of the medical industry in my country is quite similar to the early days of Japan. So, which innovation drug companies can go out of innovation and internationalization, go out of different growth curves?

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