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その６ 未だベトナム南北のしこりありなん？？
崩せなかった「北の壁」 経済改革派、ズン首相が失脚
ベトナム
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2016/2/8 6:30
ベトナム共産党は１月28日に閉幕した党大会で、2016～20年の新指導部を決定した。グエン・フー・チョン党書記長（71）が留任し、本命とされていたグエン・タン・ズン首相（66）は「失脚」した。41年前まで「北」と「南」に分かれて泥沼の戦争を繰り広げたベトナムは、いまだに分裂の後遺症が残っている。ズン氏は環太平洋経済連携協定（ＴＰＰ）参加や外資規制の緩和など経済改革を推進し、経済を重視する南部出身者の象徴的な存在だったが、共産党支配を重んじる北部を代表するチョン氏が留任。南部初の国家トップは実現せず、「北の壁」を崩すことはできなかった。
■「次期指導部には経済をわかるやつがいない」
チョン書記長(左)ら北部の壁を突き崩せなかった南部出身のズン首相（右、１月21日、ハノイ）＝ロイター
党大会直前の１月下旬、元指導部を務めた大物政治家がチョン書記長に宛ててメールを送ったという情報が流れた。「次期指導部の候補に経済をわかるやつがいない。南シナ海問題でも弱腰ばかりじゃないか。ズン氏は絶対に必要な人物だ」
その前の週、ズン首相は指導部入りの必要条件である200人の「中央委員」の候補者リストから漏れ、失脚はほぼ決まっていた。それでも「最後まで南部側の勢力はズン首相を担ぎ上げようと、いろいろな手を使って努力していた」（党に近い情報筋）と明かす。
ズン首相は国内外から認められた実力者だ。南部カマウ省の出身で、10代で南ベトナム解放戦線の兵士として活動した。公安など内政にも顔が利き、国家銀行総裁を務めるなど経済にも強い。
15年４月30日にホーチミン市で開いたベトナム戦争終結40周年記念式典で、序列１位の書記長と２位の国家主席を差し置いて約40分間演説した。序列３位の首相がこれだけ長い演説をするのは珍しく、書記長就任の布石ではないかとの観測が流れた。
しかし、ズン氏を煙たがる人たちは北部を中心に多かった。ズン首相はＴＰＰだけでなく、韓国や欧州連合（ＥＵ）、ユーラシア経済連合（ＥＥＵ）などと矢継ぎ早に自由貿易を推進。1986年のドイモイ（刷新）以降市場開放を進めたものの、国営企業が多く、各種規制など不透明な経済システムも各所に残る。既得権益とも絡んで、速すぎる「ズン流改革」への反発は多い。
南シナ海問題で強硬姿勢、中国の反発招いた？
さらに、南部出身者が最高指導者に就くことへの抵抗感もある。建国の父、ホー・チ・ミン氏以降、序列トップの書記長８人はすべて北部と中部の出身。南部は国家主席か首相止まり、というのが暗黙のルールだ。
（注）ホー・チ・ミン氏の時代はベトナム労働党
北ベトナムが南ベトナムを解放してあげたという意識が定着しており、「今のベトナムの繁栄があるのは北ベトナムのおかげ」（ハノイ在住の会社員）との考えも根強い。北ベトナム軍に従軍した人の子息が就職、進学で優遇されることも当然という雰囲気がある。
もう一つ、ズン首相の書記長就任を阻んだ要素として中国が影響したとの見方もある。15年12月23日、序列第４位でチョン書記長に近いグエン・シン・フン国会議長が中国を訪問し習近平国家主席と会談した。
国営ベトナム通信によると、南シナ海問題などを話し合ったとされるが、次期書記長選びがヤマ場を迎えた時期だけに、チョン書記長留任を調整したのではとの臆測も飛んだ。
中国がベトナムの人事に直接介入することはないにせよ、おなじ共産党国家として一定の影響力はあるとの見方が強い。中国が14年５月に西沙諸島（英語名パラセル）で石油掘削の準備を始めた直後、ズン氏は「ベトナムは主権と合法的な利権を中国との虚偽で従属的な友情と交換しない」と警告するなど、中国への強硬姿勢を隠さなかった。ベトナム政治に詳しい早稲田大学の坪井善明教授は「ベトナム最強の政治家であり、ＴＰＰで米国にすり寄ったズン首相を中国は警戒したのではないか」と指摘する。
今回の党大会は、今後５年間の党運営の中枢を担う政治局員19人も決定した。このなかにはディン・ラ・タン運輸相、グエン・ティエン・ニャン祖国戦線議長らズン氏に近いといわれる人物も多数入った。共産党幹部と親交があるベトナム人の会社社長は「ズン氏の権力は温存されており、完全に失脚してはいない」との見方を示す。
とはいえ、今回も「北の壁」は崩せなかった。次に「南」が巻き返せる党大会まで５年間。この壁は経済改革に前向きな南部出身者の登用を阻み、経済発展の遅れも招きかねない。
（ハノイ＝富山篤）
ebruary 7, 2016 1:00 pm JST
Vietnam power struggle
How southern roots, and perhaps China, dashed Dung's hopes
ATSUSHI TOMIYAMA, Nikkei staff writer
Nguyen Phu Trong, left, general secretary of Vietnam's Communist Party, and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung arrive at the party congress in Hanoi on Jan. 21. © Reuters
HANOI -- The Vietnam War ended 41 years ago, but the latest Communist Party leadership contest showed the north-south division is still a factor in the country's politics. And behind the scenes lurked China, which may not have wielded direct influence but clearly had skin in the game.
At its 12th Congress on Jan. 28, the party decided to retain Nguyen Phu Trong as its general secretary -- the nation's top leader -- for another five years. Trong, a doyen of the party's old guard, hails from Hanoi. He successfully blocked the ascent of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, once seen as a powerful contender for general secretary.
Dung would have been the first general secretary from the south of the country. As prime minister, he has been promoting a slew of ambitious economic reforms, steering Vietnam into the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact and easing restrictions on foreign investment.
If Dung is a symbol of the economy-oriented south, Trong epitomizes the north's communist ethos. The congress underscored that the north still has a firm grip on political power.
Wary bigwigs
On Jan. 21, just as the convention was getting underway, a former party heavyweight reportedly sent Trong an email.
Dung, the message said, is the sort of politician Vietnam needs. The party elder lamented that none of the candidates for the leadership team understood economic matters, and that they were all weak-kneed in responding to China's territorial claims in the South China Sea.
The previous week, Dung had dropped out of the party leadership race, having failed to win sufficient support from delegates to become a member of the next central committee. The committee selects politburo members from among its ranks; the general secretary and other leaders are plucked from the politburo.
Nevertheless, politicians from the south kept trying to get Dung nominated, according to a source close to the party.
At home and abroad, Dung has a reputation as a competent, reform-minded leader. A native of the southern province of Ca Mau, he became a soldier in the South Vietnam Liberation Army as a teenager. He has clout with the security forces and broad knowledge of the economy; he previously served as governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, the central bank.
How southern roots, and perhaps China, dashed Dung's hopes
ATSUSHI TOMIYAMA, Nikkei staff writer
Last year, it appeared that Dung might be on his way to the top. In a ceremony commemorating the 40th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War, held in Ho Chi Minh City on April 30, he spoke for 40 minutes -- longer than the general secretary and the state president, the No. 1 and 2 officials. It is unusual for the prime minister, the third-ranked leader, to give such a long address at an official ceremony.
This fueled speculation that Dung was angling for the general secretary job. But many party bigwigs are wary of him.
Despite the Doi Moi economic "renovation" program launched in 1986, Vietnam remains awash in state-run enterprises and opaque regulations. Yet the prime minister has not only brought the country into the TPP but also pushed through free trade deals with South Korea, the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. This has not gone down well with politicians linked to vested interests.
Many party members are also reluctant to accept a top leader from the south. All eight general secretaries, going back to founding father Ho Chi Minh, came from the northern or central regions.
There is a widespread notion that North Vietnam liberated South Vietnam. Many Vietnamese think the country owes its current prosperity to northern forces. And it is widely accepted that the offspring of those who served in the North Vietnamese Army should get preferential treatment when it comes to educational and employment opportunities.
The unwritten rule is that someone from the south cannot reach the pinnacle of the party hierarchy. And this was not the only obstacle in Dung's way.
Looming neighbor
Nguyen Sinh Hung, chairman of the National Assembly and the nation's No. 4 official, visited China on Dec. 23 and met with President Xi Jinping. The state-run Vietnam News Agency reported that they discussed a range of matters, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Experts suspect they also talked about the reappointment of Trong as general secretary.
There is no evidence that Beijing interfered with the leadership contest in Hanoi. But it does have significant influence over Vietnamese politics. And it is obvious that Dung was not Beijing's preferred candidate.
The prime minister has taken a tough stance on territorial rights in the South China Sea. When China started drilling for oil around the Paracel Islands, claimed by Vietnam, Dung declared that his country would not trade its sovereignty and legitimate interests for a "false and dependent friendship."
Yoshiharu Tsuboi, an expert on Vietnamese politics at Waseda University, said China may have been leery of Dung, who has also been pursuing closer ties with the U.S.
Hanging in there
Dung may be down, but he is not out. Nineteen Politburo members, who will control party affairs for the next five years, were also elected at the congress. The list includes many politicians believed to be close to the prime minister, such as Dinh La Thang, the transport minister, and Nguyen Thien Nhan, chairman of the Vietnamese Fatherland Front.
"Dung has retained much of his political power," said one Vietnamese corporate president who is close to a senior party member. "He has not fallen from power completely."
Still, the congress was a reminder of the regional divide. The outcome could hamper reformist, southern-born politicians and slow down the country's economic development.
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