[News] from [guardian.co.uk]
[News > Science]
Futurists predict fewer butchers, more space pilots – and spare legs for top football stars
Scientific advances and onset of climate change will radically change careers, says report commissioned by government
Adam Gabbatt
The Guardian, Thursday 14 January 2010 Article history
Forget the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker: in 20 years some of the most popular jobs could include vertical farmer, space pilot and body part maker, according to a government commissioned report.
Shape of Jobs to Come predicts advances in science and technology, coupled with the expected onset of climate change, could make for career paths that are virtually unrecognisable today.
The research company Fast Future was asked by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills to compile a list of jobs as part of the government's Science: [So what? So everything] campaign, launched last year to encourage a better understanding of science.
The company asked a network of "futurists and future thinkers" to consider likely science and technology developments before suggesting specific jobs. The result was a list of 110 roles, whittled down to 20 for the study.
Traditional roles within medicine and farming are expected to rely much more heavily on the use of computers and robots, while careers in social work are predicted to expand, to deal with the continuing increase in popularity of social networking sites.
Some of the most exciting developments are expected to come in medicine, where the study predicts the creation of new limbs and organs will become a reality, meaning body part makers will be in demand. Nano-medics will also be an aspirational career, with possible advances leading to the development of a nano boat, which would navigate through the body destroying cancerous cells.
Rohit Talwar, chief executive of Fast Future, predicted the generation of extra limbs would be invaluable to the military, but could see more use in sport. "If you're spending £80m on a footballer and for £2m you can have a couple of spare legs, then you're going to do it," he said. "The level of medicine will probably tell you very accurately when their legs will fail, or what kind of strains they're likely to suffer from. So you might say as a preventative measure, rather than three months' recovery let's have an artificial limb ready so we can replace their leg and have them back playing again within a few days or weeks."
The team considered factors as diverse as the rise of space tourism, the risk of a deadly virus and the onset of climate change in compiling the list – three events which could lead to people working as space pilots or tour guides, quarantine enforcers and climate change reversal specialists. Palwar said improvements in science could see new jobs created within existing fields, with insurance policies developed to cover the cost of a new leg, while cosmetic surgery could go beyond merely improving parts of a person's body to replacing sections of it.
However, the career for life , would truly become a thing of the past, said the study. "Students coming out of university now could easily have eight to 10 jobs in their lifetime, across five different careers," he said. "Technology is advancing so fast and industries are changing so fast that what looks like a solid job today disappears tomorrow."
Gordon Brown said he hoped it would inspire young people to gain skills and training for these new careers. "A priority for this government is to prepare Britain for the economy of the future and to make sure our young people can seize the opportunities that innovations in science and technology will bring."
Palwar said schools should concentrate on scientific subjects and improving all-round skills to equip children. "If I was a parent today the key thing I would want to make sure is that my kids were well versed in science and technology and were learning things like problem solving and how to make complex decisions."
> This article was amended on 14 January 2010. The chief executive of Fast Future is Rohit Talwar, not Rohit Palwar. This has been corrected.
[Environment > Greenwash]
Qatar to use biofuels? What about the country's energy consumption?
Qatar announce the future use of biofuels on its airline, but its domestic carbon emissions are shockingly free and easy
Fred Pearce
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 07.00 GMT Article history
Qatar made the news twice this week. First, the Manchester United squad flew out to the Gulf state for a few days to get in some training without the hassle of snow – hoping to revive their fortunes after a draw with Birmingham City . Second, it announced a "major environmental initiative" aimed at curbing the carbon emissions of its national airline through the use of biofuel.
They won't actually be cutting emissions any time soon, of course. Those are soaring, because, bucking the global recession, the airline expects to carry 11% more passengers in the current year.
But the airline is doing an analysis to see if it might one day start burning biofuels. Perhaps the biofuels will be grown on the huge chunk of farmland the state controversially wants to buy in Kenya.
Qataris have the highest carbon footprint on the planet. The country's per-capita emissions from burning fossil fuels are way ahead of any other nation, and almost three times those of everybody's poster bad boy, the US. This is all the more extraordinary since Qatar's electricity is mostly generated from burning natural gas, which has half the emissions of coal.
Those emissions have also risen almost fourfold since 1990. But, thanks to the vagaries of the Kyoto Protocol, the country is not penalised for this. Qatar is by some measures the second richest country in the world, but for the purposes of climate law, it is classified as a developing nation. And so it has no emissions targets.
How come Qatar's emissions are so high? The main reason is its soaring use of energy. By the end of next year Qatar will have six times the electricity-generating capacity it had as recently as 1995. One outlet for all this power is industry, based round its huge natural gas reserves. Just this week, the national gas company announced a deal with ExxonMobil for a new $6bn (£3.69bn) petrochemicals plant.
A lot of Qatar's gas is exported as liquefied natural gas – the country is the world's largest producer of the stuff. It's a fairly clean fuel at our end, but takes a lot of energy to liquefy in Qatar. So to that extent Qatar is taking a hit to allow Europe and North America to cut their emissions – handy for helping us meet the Kyoto Protocol, but not much good for the planet.
The Qatari government recently used this argument to downplay its emissions. In its recent Human Development Report, it called them "relatively modest".
But that is not the real story. Those Qatari emissions are so extraordinarily high for another reason. Qataris just don't seem to care.
Sure, there is the biofuels initiative from the state airline. Sure, a year ago Qatar held a conference to discuss how to cut its emissions without damaging the economy.
But if its rulers were serious about cutting emissions they might charge for their energy supplies. Yes, you read that right. Qatari households get their electricity free. So why would they cut down on how much they burn?
Oh, and they get their water free as well. And in Qatar, even more than most places in the Middle East, water is liquid electricity. Almost every drop coming out of the taps is produced from desalinating seawater. This is extremely expensive in energy – and therefore expensive in carbon emissions.
But because the water is free, Qataris waste it like, well, water. Despite being a desert state with virtually no rainfall, the country has among the highest per-capita water uses in the world. Use averages around 400 litres per head per day. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, a geographer at the University of Qatar, people in "big, often palatial houses" consume up to 35,000 litres per day.
Even here, they have a way of blaming foreigners. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, one reason water use is so high is that "the large number of foreign domestic servants, who come from water-rich countries, are not educated in water conservation".
Water consumption continues to rise, so Qatar is building more desalination plants. If Qatar was serious about cutting its carbon footprint it would do something about water demand. At the least, it might charge for the stuff.
Will Qatar's emissions carry on up? Looks Likely. Electricity demand is currently rising by about 7% a year. That is not as fast as the national economy, which is growing by 11% annually – the fastest boom on the planet.
But stopping this out-of-control carbon-emitting juggernaut will take more than an Airbus full of biofuels.
[News > Science]
Futurists predict fewer butchers, more space pilots – and spare legs for top football stars
Scientific advances and onset of climate change will radically change careers, says report commissioned by government
Adam Gabbatt
The Guardian, Thursday 14 January 2010 Article history
Forget the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker: in 20 years some of the most popular jobs could include vertical farmer, space pilot and body part maker, according to a government commissioned report.
Shape of Jobs to Come predicts advances in science and technology, coupled with the expected onset of climate change, could make for career paths that are virtually unrecognisable today.
The research company Fast Future was asked by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills to compile a list of jobs as part of the government's Science: [So what? So everything] campaign, launched last year to encourage a better understanding of science.
The company asked a network of "futurists and future thinkers" to consider likely science and technology developments before suggesting specific jobs. The result was a list of 110 roles, whittled down to 20 for the study.
Traditional roles within medicine and farming are expected to rely much more heavily on the use of computers and robots, while careers in social work are predicted to expand, to deal with the continuing increase in popularity of social networking sites.
Some of the most exciting developments are expected to come in medicine, where the study predicts the creation of new limbs and organs will become a reality, meaning body part makers will be in demand. Nano-medics will also be an aspirational career, with possible advances leading to the development of a nano boat, which would navigate through the body destroying cancerous cells.
Rohit Talwar, chief executive of Fast Future, predicted the generation of extra limbs would be invaluable to the military, but could see more use in sport. "If you're spending £80m on a footballer and for £2m you can have a couple of spare legs, then you're going to do it," he said. "The level of medicine will probably tell you very accurately when their legs will fail, or what kind of strains they're likely to suffer from. So you might say as a preventative measure, rather than three months' recovery let's have an artificial limb ready so we can replace their leg and have them back playing again within a few days or weeks."
The team considered factors as diverse as the rise of space tourism, the risk of a deadly virus and the onset of climate change in compiling the list – three events which could lead to people working as space pilots or tour guides, quarantine enforcers and climate change reversal specialists. Palwar said improvements in science could see new jobs created within existing fields, with insurance policies developed to cover the cost of a new leg, while cosmetic surgery could go beyond merely improving parts of a person's body to replacing sections of it.
However, the career for life , would truly become a thing of the past, said the study. "Students coming out of university now could easily have eight to 10 jobs in their lifetime, across five different careers," he said. "Technology is advancing so fast and industries are changing so fast that what looks like a solid job today disappears tomorrow."
Gordon Brown said he hoped it would inspire young people to gain skills and training for these new careers. "A priority for this government is to prepare Britain for the economy of the future and to make sure our young people can seize the opportunities that innovations in science and technology will bring."
Palwar said schools should concentrate on scientific subjects and improving all-round skills to equip children. "If I was a parent today the key thing I would want to make sure is that my kids were well versed in science and technology and were learning things like problem solving and how to make complex decisions."
> This article was amended on 14 January 2010. The chief executive of Fast Future is Rohit Talwar, not Rohit Palwar. This has been corrected.
[Environment > Greenwash]
Qatar to use biofuels? What about the country's energy consumption?
Qatar announce the future use of biofuels on its airline, but its domestic carbon emissions are shockingly free and easy
Fred Pearce
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 14 January 2010 07.00 GMT Article history
Qatar made the news twice this week. First, the Manchester United squad flew out to the Gulf state for a few days to get in some training without the hassle of snow – hoping to revive their fortunes after a draw with Birmingham City . Second, it announced a "major environmental initiative" aimed at curbing the carbon emissions of its national airline through the use of biofuel.
They won't actually be cutting emissions any time soon, of course. Those are soaring, because, bucking the global recession, the airline expects to carry 11% more passengers in the current year.
But the airline is doing an analysis to see if it might one day start burning biofuels. Perhaps the biofuels will be grown on the huge chunk of farmland the state controversially wants to buy in Kenya.
Qataris have the highest carbon footprint on the planet. The country's per-capita emissions from burning fossil fuels are way ahead of any other nation, and almost three times those of everybody's poster bad boy, the US. This is all the more extraordinary since Qatar's electricity is mostly generated from burning natural gas, which has half the emissions of coal.
Those emissions have also risen almost fourfold since 1990. But, thanks to the vagaries of the Kyoto Protocol, the country is not penalised for this. Qatar is by some measures the second richest country in the world, but for the purposes of climate law, it is classified as a developing nation. And so it has no emissions targets.
How come Qatar's emissions are so high? The main reason is its soaring use of energy. By the end of next year Qatar will have six times the electricity-generating capacity it had as recently as 1995. One outlet for all this power is industry, based round its huge natural gas reserves. Just this week, the national gas company announced a deal with ExxonMobil for a new $6bn (£3.69bn) petrochemicals plant.
A lot of Qatar's gas is exported as liquefied natural gas – the country is the world's largest producer of the stuff. It's a fairly clean fuel at our end, but takes a lot of energy to liquefy in Qatar. So to that extent Qatar is taking a hit to allow Europe and North America to cut their emissions – handy for helping us meet the Kyoto Protocol, but not much good for the planet.
The Qatari government recently used this argument to downplay its emissions. In its recent Human Development Report, it called them "relatively modest".
But that is not the real story. Those Qatari emissions are so extraordinarily high for another reason. Qataris just don't seem to care.
Sure, there is the biofuels initiative from the state airline. Sure, a year ago Qatar held a conference to discuss how to cut its emissions without damaging the economy.
But if its rulers were serious about cutting emissions they might charge for their energy supplies. Yes, you read that right. Qatari households get their electricity free. So why would they cut down on how much they burn?
Oh, and they get their water free as well. And in Qatar, even more than most places in the Middle East, water is liquid electricity. Almost every drop coming out of the taps is produced from desalinating seawater. This is extremely expensive in energy – and therefore expensive in carbon emissions.
But because the water is free, Qataris waste it like, well, water. Despite being a desert state with virtually no rainfall, the country has among the highest per-capita water uses in the world. Use averages around 400 litres per head per day. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, a geographer at the University of Qatar, people in "big, often palatial houses" consume up to 35,000 litres per day.
Even here, they have a way of blaming foreigners. According to Hassan Al-Mohannadi, one reason water use is so high is that "the large number of foreign domestic servants, who come from water-rich countries, are not educated in water conservation".
Water consumption continues to rise, so Qatar is building more desalination plants. If Qatar was serious about cutting its carbon footprint it would do something about water demand. At the least, it might charge for the stuff.
Will Qatar's emissions carry on up? Looks Likely. Electricity demand is currently rising by about 7% a year. That is not as fast as the national economy, which is growing by 11% annually – the fastest boom on the planet.
But stopping this out-of-control carbon-emitting juggernaut will take more than an Airbus full of biofuels.
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