This time I would like tentatively to share the insights of Dr. Bonny Lin, a senior fellow for Asian security and director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Her theme is: Ukraine and China’s Calculus for Use of Force.
The growing China-Russia relationship and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raise fundamental concerns regarding China’s calculus for use of force.
A key question underpins this: Did Xi Jinping suspect or know Russia would invade Ukraine when China and Russia strengthened relations on February 4?
If he did not, that is a significant intelligence failure that should prompt rethinking of how Beijing (fails to) processes information.
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