Welcome to Issues in Japan.
This time I would like to share the article contents released by the Japan Research Institute, Limited (Research Department Macroeconomic Research Center), with the title: “Japan's Economic Outlook, February 2022.”
Summary: The economy is picking up.
1. Production and exports are picking up, but consumer spending is down.
2. Exports of goods are picking up, but inbound demand is almost zero.
3. Both corporate profits and capital investment are expected to pick up.
4. The downturn in consumption due to the renewed spread of the new coronavirus is expected to be short-term.
5. GDP will not recover to its pre-pandemic peak until the July-September 2022 period.
◆The growth forecast for the January-March period has been revised downward.
In the October-December period of 2021, a high annual growth rate of 7% is expected to be achieved due to a recovery in service consumption and a pickup in automobile production.
On the other hand, the growth rate forecast for the January-March period of 2022 has been revised downward due to the higher-than-expected resurgence of the new coronavirus infection and the consequent application of priority measures to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus infection.
However, in the main scenario, it is assumed that the number of infected people will peak out at an early stage and the priority measures to prevent the spread of the infection will be lifted as scheduled by the government.
Although the pace of recovery in consumer spending will be slower than in the previous fiscal year, the economy is expected to maintain positive growth as exports and capital investment increase in line with the recovery in manufacturing production, supporting the economy.
In the April-June period and beyond, the rapid recovery in manufacturing production will have run its course, and the momentum of exports and capital investment will slow down. But, consumption activity is expected to normalize, and the economic recovery trend is expected to continue.
However, we cannot rule out the risk of a delay in the recovery period due to the prolonged outbreak of the Omicron strain.
◆The growth rate for FY2021 is expected to be +2.7%.
Growth rates for FY2021 and FY2022 will be +2.7% and +3.4%, respectively, with higher positive growth for the second consecutive year backed by the recovery of economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic.
In fiscal 2023, the pace of growth will slow significantly to +1.1%, reflecting the normalization of economic activity.
Real GDP is not expected to recover to its pre-coronavirus-pandemic-peak level until the July-September 2022 period.
That’s all for now.
I have shared the article contents released by the Japan Research Institute, Limited (Research Department Macroeconomic Research Center), with the title: “Japan's Economic Outlook, February 2022.”
For detailed information and for your assurance, please refer to the following:
The Japan Research Institute, Limited (Research Department Macroeconomic Research Center)
https://www.jri.co.jp/report/medium/japan/
Thank you for your visit and your interest.
