Dollar Heads for a Quarterly Loss as Fed Approaches End of Rate Increases
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell, heading for its biggest quarterly loss since 2004, as government reports showed slowing growth, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to take a break from raising interest rates.
A pause by the Fed would raise the chance of the European Central Bank outpacing its American counterpart, after ECB policy makers this week said they may quicken their pace of rate boosts. The dollar slid yesterday after the Fed lifted its target and said an additional move ``may be needed'' only if statistics warrant.
``The Fed's message is they don't want to pre-commit themselves to rate hikes, and that's less hawkish than the market expected,'' said Marios Maratheftis, a currency strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. ``We are once again entering a dollar downward trend.''
The dollar weakened to $1.2747 per euro at 8:34 a.m. in New York, from $1.2664 late yesterday, reaching the lowest since June 8. It fell to 114.55 yen, from 115.18 yen. The U.S. currency is down 4.9 percent against the euro and 2.6 percent versus the yen since March 31.
Interest-rate futures show traders see 59 percent odds of a quarter-percentage point increase in the overnight lending rate between banks, to 5.5 percent rate in August. Two days ago the figure was 85 percent.
``The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth,'' the Fed said in its accompanying statement yesterday after lifting its benchmark rates a 17th straight time since June 2004 to 5 percent.
`Close to Pausing'
``We're seeing a clear sign the Fed is very close to pausing on its tightening cycle,'' said Stephen Koukoulas, chief Asia- Pacific strategist at TD Securities Ltd. in Sydney. ``We're very generically U.S.-dollar bears and expect it is in the early stages of a more meaningful depreciation.''
The Commerce Department said personal spending rose 0.4 percent in May, compared with 0.7 percent in April. The inflation gauge the Fed uses in its forecasts held at 2.1 percent, above the ``comfort'' zone identified by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
A separate report may show an index of Chicago-area business fell to 59 in June from 61.5 in May, according to the median forecast. The National Association of Supply Management-Chicago releases the data at 10:00 a.m.
`Inch Higher'
The euro also rose as the European Commission said confidence among the region's executives and consumers jumped to a five-year high in June. An index published by the commission rose to 107.2, against the median forecast of a drop.
``The ECB might have more to tighten for the rest of this year relative to the Federal Reserve,'' said Sue Trinh, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. ``We expect the euro to inch higher'' toward $1.2730 today, she said.
At least six ECB policy makers this month signaled a faster pace of rate boosts in the euro region. The bank is forecast to keep its benchmark at 2.75 percent on July 6 after three increases since the start of December.
ECB council members Yves Mersch and Nicholas Garganas said in interviews this week a rate boost of more than a quarter-point or a faster pace of increases are options for the bank.
JPMorgan's Call
JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists raised their prediction this week for the ECB's rate by a quarter-point to 3.75 percent by year-end. The bank also expects a boost July 6.
The euro pared gains after a report showed German retail sales fell the most in two years in May, crimping optimism about accelerating growth in the euro-region. Sales slid 2.2 percent from April, against the median forecast of a 0.3 percent decline.
Gains in the yen may be limited by concern Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui will be forced to step down over his investment in a fund founded by Yoshiaki Murakami, who has been indicted for insider trading.
The governor has $120,000 worth of dollar-denominated deposits, according to documents he submitted to parliament on June 27, the Asahi newspaper reported today.
Shinichiro Furumoto, a member of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, yesterday told a news conference Fukui's dollar- denominated assets could raise legal concerns, the newspaper reported.
``Fukui is under fire from many quarters,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $1 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``This will not only harm the credibility of the Japanese financial system, but also Japan's political and economic systems. That'll continue to weigh on the yen.''
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell, heading for its biggest quarterly loss since 2004, as government reports showed slowing growth, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to take a break from raising interest rates.
A pause by the Fed would raise the chance of the European Central Bank outpacing its American counterpart, after ECB policy makers this week said they may quicken their pace of rate boosts. The dollar slid yesterday after the Fed lifted its target and said an additional move ``may be needed'' only if statistics warrant.
``The Fed's message is they don't want to pre-commit themselves to rate hikes, and that's less hawkish than the market expected,'' said Marios Maratheftis, a currency strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. ``We are once again entering a dollar downward trend.''
The dollar weakened to $1.2747 per euro at 8:34 a.m. in New York, from $1.2664 late yesterday, reaching the lowest since June 8. It fell to 114.55 yen, from 115.18 yen. The U.S. currency is down 4.9 percent against the euro and 2.6 percent versus the yen since March 31.
Interest-rate futures show traders see 59 percent odds of a quarter-percentage point increase in the overnight lending rate between banks, to 5.5 percent rate in August. Two days ago the figure was 85 percent.
``The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth,'' the Fed said in its accompanying statement yesterday after lifting its benchmark rates a 17th straight time since June 2004 to 5 percent.
`Close to Pausing'
``We're seeing a clear sign the Fed is very close to pausing on its tightening cycle,'' said Stephen Koukoulas, chief Asia- Pacific strategist at TD Securities Ltd. in Sydney. ``We're very generically U.S.-dollar bears and expect it is in the early stages of a more meaningful depreciation.''
The Commerce Department said personal spending rose 0.4 percent in May, compared with 0.7 percent in April. The inflation gauge the Fed uses in its forecasts held at 2.1 percent, above the ``comfort'' zone identified by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
A separate report may show an index of Chicago-area business fell to 59 in June from 61.5 in May, according to the median forecast. The National Association of Supply Management-Chicago releases the data at 10:00 a.m.
`Inch Higher'
The euro also rose as the European Commission said confidence among the region's executives and consumers jumped to a five-year high in June. An index published by the commission rose to 107.2, against the median forecast of a drop.
``The ECB might have more to tighten for the rest of this year relative to the Federal Reserve,'' said Sue Trinh, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. ``We expect the euro to inch higher'' toward $1.2730 today, she said.
At least six ECB policy makers this month signaled a faster pace of rate boosts in the euro region. The bank is forecast to keep its benchmark at 2.75 percent on July 6 after three increases since the start of December.
ECB council members Yves Mersch and Nicholas Garganas said in interviews this week a rate boost of more than a quarter-point or a faster pace of increases are options for the bank.
JPMorgan's Call
JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists raised their prediction this week for the ECB's rate by a quarter-point to 3.75 percent by year-end. The bank also expects a boost July 6.
The euro pared gains after a report showed German retail sales fell the most in two years in May, crimping optimism about accelerating growth in the euro-region. Sales slid 2.2 percent from April, against the median forecast of a 0.3 percent decline.
Gains in the yen may be limited by concern Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui will be forced to step down over his investment in a fund founded by Yoshiaki Murakami, who has been indicted for insider trading.
The governor has $120,000 worth of dollar-denominated deposits, according to documents he submitted to parliament on June 27, the Asahi newspaper reported today.
Shinichiro Furumoto, a member of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, yesterday told a news conference Fukui's dollar- denominated assets could raise legal concerns, the newspaper reported.
``Fukui is under fire from many quarters,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $1 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``This will not only harm the credibility of the Japanese financial system, but also Japan's political and economic systems. That'll continue to weigh on the yen.''