Ccxi credit rating co., LTD. Research institute, chief macroeconomic analyst hai-xia yuan believes that the core of the macro policy marginal adjustment, is the economy, "steady" risk "stability", that is to say, the adjustment of the macro policy belong to "change" in the stability, preset fine-tuning of macro policies to solve the risks and challenges faced by China's economic operation, not policy sharply or "flood irrigation.
Due to the central bank's open market operations, market liquidity is relatively loose. The ministry of finance promulgated the opinions on doing a good job in issuing local government special bonds, accelerating the issuance of special bonds and stimulating the "supporting role" of infrastructure investment.
Yuan haixia predicted that as fiscal policies become more active, infrastructure investment will pick up. Meanwhile, as the regulatory policy adjustment and monetary credit transmission mechanism are further improved, the tight credit situation will be eased.
"" with the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning of macro policies, the pressure on downward risks in the economic operation will be reduced, thus supporting the steady growth of the second half of the year." " Yuan haixia said.
However, yuan haixia pointed out that there is still a delay in the emergence of the policy effect, so neither infrastructure investment nor investment as a whole has recovered.
Investment rose 5.5 percent year-on-year in the january-july period, the slowest pace since data began in 1992. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) hit a new low, increasing only by 5.7% year-on-year, which was also the lowest since 2014. Real estate investment than expected recovery, up 10.2% from a year earlier, despite a lower base over the same period last year, but in July 1 - real estate investment funding sources, the new construction area, sales area, indexes, such as real estate investment support factors remained, although the real estate macro policy under strict regulation marginal adjustment to the influence of the real estate co., LTD., but also benefit the real estate sector, inevitably follow-up or is still expected to maintain rapid growth in real estate investment; The rebound in manufacturing investment shows that industrial production is still somewhat supported in the short term.
Recently, a series of incidents related to local government debt have been reported in yiyang, hunan and other places, which has aroused the attention of the market on local government debt risk.
Yuan haixia said that local government debt risk is not a new problem, but the accumulation of "grey rhinos" in a long-term debt-investment driven model. Although the supervision of local government debt has been tightened this year, coupled with the tightening of liquidity, some places with high debt risks in the future should be alert to the occurrence of debt risk events.
The original address: http://news.10jqka.com.cn/20180910/c607037392.shtml
Due to the central bank's open market operations, market liquidity is relatively loose. The ministry of finance promulgated the opinions on doing a good job in issuing local government special bonds, accelerating the issuance of special bonds and stimulating the "supporting role" of infrastructure investment.
Yuan haixia predicted that as fiscal policies become more active, infrastructure investment will pick up. Meanwhile, as the regulatory policy adjustment and monetary credit transmission mechanism are further improved, the tight credit situation will be eased.
"" with the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning of macro policies, the pressure on downward risks in the economic operation will be reduced, thus supporting the steady growth of the second half of the year." " Yuan haixia said.
However, yuan haixia pointed out that there is still a delay in the emergence of the policy effect, so neither infrastructure investment nor investment as a whole has recovered.
Investment rose 5.5 percent year-on-year in the january-july period, the slowest pace since data began in 1992. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) hit a new low, increasing only by 5.7% year-on-year, which was also the lowest since 2014. Real estate investment than expected recovery, up 10.2% from a year earlier, despite a lower base over the same period last year, but in July 1 - real estate investment funding sources, the new construction area, sales area, indexes, such as real estate investment support factors remained, although the real estate macro policy under strict regulation marginal adjustment to the influence of the real estate co., LTD., but also benefit the real estate sector, inevitably follow-up or is still expected to maintain rapid growth in real estate investment; The rebound in manufacturing investment shows that industrial production is still somewhat supported in the short term.
Recently, a series of incidents related to local government debt have been reported in yiyang, hunan and other places, which has aroused the attention of the market on local government debt risk.
Yuan haixia said that local government debt risk is not a new problem, but the accumulation of "grey rhinos" in a long-term debt-investment driven model. Although the supervision of local government debt has been tightened this year, coupled with the tightening of liquidity, some places with high debt risks in the future should be alert to the occurrence of debt risk events.
The original address: http://news.10jqka.com.cn/20180910/c607037392.shtml