カブスの優勝確率、単純計算では12.5％

50％×50％×50％＝12.5％

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/indians-cubs-2016-world-series-what-mlb-history-says-about-teams-down-3-games-to-1/

Assume these two teams are evenly matched and thus each has a 50 percent chance of winning a given game. That means the Cubs' "side of the coin" is going to have to come up three straight times. Simple probability tells you there's a 12.5 percent chance of that happening.

 

過去のワールドシリーズ８１年の結果。

　１２チームが1勝3敗から優勝　＝　１２/８１　＝　１４．８％