The following is from Bunshun Online, which I just discovered.
The emphasis in the text except for the headline is mine.
"Japan should have nuclear weapons," Emmanuel Todd points out "Danger of dependence on the U.S." (The world's first interview after the invasion of Russia)
"I want to begin by saying that this is the first time I have made my views public since the Russian invasion. In my own country, France, I have refused all interviews."
Todd, a world-renowned historical demographer, began his interview with this magazine by saying.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a situation that could develop into "World War III.
How will countries react in the future?
Todd says that there are "countries whose actions are predictable" and "countries whose actions are unpredictable in a global crisis.
People say, 'Putin is crazy,' but Russia has a specific strategy," he said. In that sense, it is predictable. Russian behavior can be called 'rational' and 'violent. In contrast, Ukraine is unpredictable. Ukraine, backed by the U.S. and the U.K., has been trying to take back Crimea and the Donbas region from Russia, which I must say is an irrational and reckless attempt, considering its military strength and population size.
But more than that, U.S. behavior can be an unpredictable and significant risk.
It is because there is no center, in contrast to Russia, which Putin leads.
The U.S. "brain" is like a "Pot-au-feu" with many things thrown in.
I am unsure what President Biden thinks when he repeatedly makes irresponsible and unpredictable gaffes such as 'regime change in Russia."
According to Todd, the "perilous" nature of the U.S. actions will pose the most significant risk to Japan.
"Even if the Japan-U.S. alliance is indispensable to Japan's security for the time being, can Japan rely on the U.S.? To what extent can U.S. actions be trusted? As long as these doubts cannot be dispelled, I believe Japan should have nuclear weapons."
The nuclear umbrella "is an illusion."
I am aware that nuclear weapons are a very sensitive issue in Japan.
However, we need to rethink calmly what nuclear weapons are in the first place.
Possession of nuclear weapons is neither an expression of aggressive nationalism nor a show of power in a power game, as is the case in my home country of France. Instead, it allows us to place ourselves on the margins of the power game. It is a means to get out of the "alliance" and gain genuine "autonomy.
In Japan, "nuclear sharing" is being discussed in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
How does Mr. Todd see it?
The concept of "nuclear sharing" is complete nonsense. "The nuclear umbrella" is also an illusion.
It is because nuclear weapons, which are at risk of being attacked by one's own country if used, cannot be used for other countries in principle.
Suppose China and North Korea have the ability to attack the continental United States with nuclear weapons. In that case, it is absolutely impossible for the United States to use its own nuclear weapons to protect Japan.
Do you have nuclear weapons in your own country or not? There is no other choice.
The world's first interview with Mr. Todd since the invasion of Russia, "Recommendations for a Nuclear Japan," appears in the May issue of Bungeishunju (Japanese magazine) in a total of 11 pages.
(Bungeishunju editorial department / Bungeishunju, May 2022 issue)
