The following is from the chapter I sent out on June 4.
What I have been referring to as "intuition" as defined by Hiroshi Furuta, one of the world's best scholars, has been published as one of the world's best papers by Taishi Sugiyama, a true researcher.
As I mentioned above, he has a brain worthy of having studied at the University of Tokyo.
There are many graduates of the University of Tokyo in politics, government, academia, the business world, and the world of speech.
But why is it that no one can say the same things about global warming as he can?
It may be that the people who enter and come out of the University of Tokyo are a mixed bag.
It proves that many people are nothing more than honors students.
This paper is a must-read for the Japanese people and people worldwide, and it is the most important paper of our time.
Taishi Sugiyama deserves the Nobel Prize for this paper alone.
But what this paper also reveals is how stupid the world is.
The short answer here is that Prime Minister Suga has been foolish enough to appoint a college student named Naomi Traude and a populist politician with a brain of deviation value 35 as his environment minister without listening to genuine researchers like Taishi Sugiyama.
As you know, I have hardly criticized Prime Minister Suga.
However, I agree 100% with Mr. Sugiyama's thesis that if Prime Minister Suga is not aware of what Mr. Sugiyama keeps pointing out, it will destroy his country.
What to do if Prime Minister Suga does not understand his authentic thesis = actual patriotism thesis?
I will discuss it later.
The following is from his article in today's Sankei Shimbun.
Mr. Taishi Sugiyama, Executive Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies
Review the national ruin energy masterplan
Under the administration of Yoshihide Suga, Japan's efforts to combat global warming are spiraling out of control. Even the Basic Energy Plan draft, which is supposed to set the foundation of Japan's energy policy, contains reckless C0₂ reduction targets.
It could have a severe negative impact on Japan's economy and national security.
It's all about matching numbers.
Following the "2050 C0₂ Zero" declaration last fall, in April this year, the C0₂ reduction target for FY2018 was dug 20 points at a stretch from the previous 26% to 46% compared to FY2013.
All of these actions were led by the Prime Minister's Office.
At best, it is a top-down approach with a high target, but at worst, it is an outburst that ignores the vital national interests of the economy and security.
Japan has periodically formulated a basic plan to set the direction of its energy policy.
The recent revision reflects the deepening of the C0₂ target.
The Ministry of the Environment's draft Global Warming Prevention Plan anticipates significant C0₂ reductions in all sectors.
The emission reductions for FY30 are 66% in the household sector, 50% in the business sector, and 38% in the industrial sector compared to FY13.
In the power generation sector, the draft of the Basic Energy Plan sets the share of renewable energies such as solar power generation as the power source composition for FY30 at "36-38%," a significant increase from the "22-24%" in the Fifth Plan formulated three years ago.
However, unlike in the past, it did not show detailed reduction guidelines for each industry and initiative, and countermeasures were only listed. The economic burden is also not indicated.
In other words, the 46% reduction target was allocated without any concrete measures to back it up, and it was all about making the numbers add up.
There is a lot of controversy about the feasibility of the plan.
Economic burden and dependence on China
The current range of C0₂ reduction is 13% compared to FY2013 and will reduce to 46% in just nine years.
In the past 13 years, it stopped all nuclear power generation.
It is expected that even if it restarted all the nuclear power plants, the reduction would be barely 26%.
The draft plan cites the massive introduction of renewable energy sources such as solar power and significant energy conservation as the means to achieve this goal.
The draft review reported that solar power is now cheaper than nuclear power, but this was highly misleading, as it did not include the cost of thermal energy for backup when the sun is not shining.
To date, solar power has cost the Japanese people 2.5 trillion yen in levies on their electricity bills every year to reduce the country's C0₂ emissions by 2.5%.
In other words, at this rate, it will take an additional 20 trillion yen every year to go 20 points deeper.
Twenty trillion yen is equal to the total amount of the current consumption tax.
The additional burden on the people to achieve the 46% target will be equivalent to raising the consumption tax rate to 20% by 2020.
It is a severe economic burden.
There are many claims that solar power will become cheaper in the future.
However, problems such as landscaping and landslides will become apparent, leading to increased costs.
Not only that, Chinese products, which account for 80% of the global market for solar panels, are suspected to be related to forced labor in Uyghur, and the US banned the import of Chinese solar panels in June.
Japan should have taken similar measures, but the draft plan ignores this severe problem and plans to introduce solar power massively.
As for energy conservation, there are concerns that the economic burden will grow under the excessive targets set. Energy conservation can be economically beneficial in some cases.
However, some bad investments in energy conservation will not pay off in utility cost savings even after decades.
Don't mislead the country.
In other countries, public revolts have begun as the economic burden becomes clearer.
In Switzerland, it considered a proposal to amend the C0₂ law to halve C0₂ by 2030.
But when it became clear that gasoline prices would rise, opposition arose, and it rejected the proposal in a referendum.
The British government considered measures such as banning gas for home heating and only using electric heaters.
However, when it came to light that the cost of such a measure would amount to several million yen per household, a group of Conservative Party members of the Johnson administration turned against it and forced the government to reconsider.
The draft of Japan's primary energy plan is likely to raise many objections as the economic burden becomes clearer.
The draft states that the figures are "an indication of what the prospects would be if various challenges were ambitiously assumed to be overcome.
Regardless of the possibility, the implementation will curb the economic burden and ensure a stable supply.
The proposal is set to be approved by the Cabinet after a public consultation.
As long as the proposal is a blueprint and will not serve as a guideline for Japan but will mislead the nation with its economic burden and dependence on China, it is best to forgo a Cabinet decision.
However, suppose a cabinet decision is to be made. In that case, it should once again make clear that the figures should not be enforced. The negative aspects of the plan, such as the economic burden, should be examined every step of the way, and that the program should be reviewed flexibly as necessary.
