It is no exaggeration to say that Arashiyama is my home garden.
After all, several years ago, I spent 100 days a year photographing spring, summer, fall, and winter in Arashiyama.
I often go there on New Year's Day.
It was the same this year.
I was lucky enough to be seated in a four-seater from Kyoto Station.
I was reading the February issue of the monthly magazine Sound Arguments, which went on sale yesterday.
It featured an interview between Ms. Sakurai and Mr. Oda at the beginning of the issue.
As I was reading, I almost cried.
Ms. Sakurai said, "I almost cried listening to it."
It is a must-read not only for the people of Japan but for people all over the world.
Recently, I have often left out reading the monthly magazine "Sound Arguments."
Japanese citizens who can read the printed word must buy this month's issue at their nearest bookstore and read it carefully during the New Year vacations.
The emphasis in the text other than the headline is mine.
Japan, Wake Up! Restore the Spirit of Public Service!
Kunio Oda, Special Professor at Reitaku University and former Air Force General, and journalist Yoshiko Sakurai
-Congratulations to Mr. Oda on winning the 38th "Sound Arguments Award."
The decision to award the prize was unanimous among the judges.
50 trillion yen is a cheap way to invest in national defense
--It is disrespectful to the Self-Defense Forces to ask them to risk their respective lives for the "minimum necessary."
Oda.
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, "Be firm and defend the Senkakus with all your might.
It contradicts the basic policy of Japan's defense, but this is the basic policy that should change.
Everyone is aware of this contradiction, yet they remain silent.
Do I have a responsibility to point out these contradictions?
Sakurai
Only a few countries in the world are in as dangerous a situation as Japan is today.
In such a situation, I think that the time has come for the people to have a sense of the danger that the Self-Defense Forces are feeling, military knowledge to support it logically, and historical knowledge that countries around the world have defended themselves with military power, as the foundation of the people's education.
Since such education is lacking, discussions on the Diet.
Oda
It's a slip of the tongue, isn't it?
Sakurai
I think this is where the proposals of the military officers represented by Mr. Oda must be delivered to various parts of the government in a visible form.
The Minister of Defense is always present at the NSC (National Security Council), but why is the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the top uniformed officer, not always present?
I hope that your proposal will be the catalyst to change such a system.
Oda.
The reality is that the international community is driven by force.
Japanese people want to look away, but followers of power, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, believe only in power.
Japan is now in a challenging environment.
After all, Japan is the only country surrounded by three nuclear powers.
Sakurai
And all three are dictatorships.
Oda
Furthermore, Japan has three territorial disputes.
It would be crazy for Japan to remain complacent under these circumstances.
We have no choice but to repeatedly emphasize that the international situation surrounding Japan is in a crisis unprecedented in the postwar period.
It is too late for war to break out.
Sakurai
The late former Prime Minister Abe's vision of the world further ahead was outstanding.
Whether it was the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Concept," the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), or the Quad (Japan-U.S.-Australia-India framework), he was strategically throwing the ball.
Why did the DPP, led by President Tsai Ing-wen, lose the recent local elections in Taiwan?
Why did the Taiwanese people vote for the pro-China KMT, which has its sights set on Taiwan?
Taiwan is now under an intensive cyber-attack from China.
Oda.
It is reported that Taiwan is attacked 1.4 billion times a year.
Sakurai
Yet, the people of Taiwan are not well informed about how scary China is.
All they hear is criticism of President Tsai Ing-wen.
The DPP's defeat in the recent local elections resulted from losing the information war.
Why has Japan not thrown a strategic ball toward Taiwan up to this point?
In the U.S., Speaker Pelosi and other politicians have visited Taiwan one after another, and the Taiwan Policy Act is being discussed in the Senate and other branches of government. A relationship similar to the U.S.-Taiwan alliance is about to be born.
What is our country doing in comparison?
President Tsai has also lifted the ban on imports of agricultural products from Fukushima and other areas over the public's objections.
The Taiwanese side hoped this would be enough to join the TPP.
In response, Japan could have proposed establishing a working group to study the pros and cons of Taiwan's membership, but it has yet to do so.
That's why President Tsai was seen domestically as "to be left high and dry by Japan."
It does not take a budget to send a political message.
Former Prime Minister Abe's statement that "a Taiwan incident is a Japan incident" did not cost a penny.
Politicians and we in the press must look ahead and send out more and more strategic messages.
Oda.
You are right. According to the "China Security Report 2023," recently published by the National Institute for Defense Studies, a think tank of the Ministry of Defense, China has been increasing its influence operations in recent years.
The goal is cognitive warfare, and if Taiwan raises the white flag and says, "No more," that is the end of the game.
That is what General Secretary Xi Jinping is aiming for.
What Japan should do to prevent this from happening is to show Taiwan that it will fight with Japan and the U.S. if something happens.
We need to show it and make it "visible" by making operational plans, conducting training, and exchanging personnel.
Since it is in Japan's national interest that Taiwan not be taken by China, the answer to how to achieve this should be self-evident.
We need to read a little further.
Sakurai
That's right.
I want politicians to routinely pay attention to the future of Japan in the context of the flow of neighboring countries rather than just looking a little further into the future.
Oda.
Some people are indebted to China or try not to look a single inch ahead.
If Taiwan were to be taken by China in a cognitive war, the People's Liberation Army would advance into Taiwan.
In the summer of 2022, China rushed to issue the "Taiwan White Paper" for the first time in 22 years to coincide with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Still, the previous Taiwan White Paper stated, "Taiwan may have its military even after reunification. The last Taiwan White Paper clearly said, "Taiwan may have its military force even after reunification, and the People's Liberation Army will not occupy Taiwan.
However, in the current white paper, that statement has disappeared.
If the Chinese Air Force were to station itself in Taiwan, China would gain control of the airspace within 300 miles.
It would curb Japan's sea lanes and stop most of its food and oil imports.
Despite being able to read that far, many politicians are unaware of the danger.
What can we do to ensure that Taiwan will never be taken?
Since China plays a mental warfare game, we must counter it with an anti-cognitive warfare game.
Sakurai
Japan needs to show that it will act in the event of an emergency in Taiwan and that Japan, the U.S., and Taiwan will work together to deal with the situation.
It is not only for the sake of Taiwan.
Oda
It is also for the sake of Japan.
Sakurai
That is what the Japanese must realize.
We are not doing it for Taiwan but for Japan.
What is it that the Self-Defense Forces are lacking now?
Oda.
Since the Self-Defense Forces have been cutting themselves without a sufficient budget so far, they are like "Benkei" standing on their feet with only spirit and overwhelmingly lacking in Combat service support and Military Logistics.
The current Self-Defense Forces are in a so-called "paper tiger" state.
The SDF will have a "counterattack capability" in the future, but this does not mean having missiles is sufficient.
Together with the U.S. military, we will also need personnel to plan and coordinate operations, such as where to attack and how to divide the roles of missiles and aircraft.
Once it is decided to possess "counterattack capability," these concrete measures will be required.
The ability to counterattack is absolutely indispensable in order not to be attacked and to prevent the country from becoming a battlefield. For that purpose, money and personnel must be invested without stinginess.
Specific measures will require more human resources and budget, but the Ministry of Finance may tell us to reduce the number of people in other units to make up for it.
It would be like asking an already thin person to lose weight.
We need to build up our Combat service support and Military Logistics rapidly, and at the same time, we need to build up our counterattack capability.
Sakurai
Former Prime Minister Abe once said, "Japan does not have the capability to take over the war.
The entire government must accept the seriousness of such a statement from a man who has been prime minister for seven years and eight months.
There are many things that the Self-Defense Forces are lacking, but when it comes down to it, politics is to blame.
It is necessary to establish a system in which there is a constant exchange of opinions between politics and the military so that the prime minister always has a military officer close by.
Politicians cannot make valid security policies without knowing about the military, so we must improve the relationship between politics and the military.
Oda.
President Zelensky of Ukraine is now a "fighting president." Still, ten days before the war started on February 24, he had announced that everything would be resolved through negotiations and had skipped strengthening defense capabilities.
In that sense, he is by no means a hero.
Japan should learn the lesson from Ukraine and spend money on deterring war.
It is said that total defense spending over the next five years is 43 trillion yen as a compromise, but spending 50 trillion yen over five years for deterrence is cheap.
It is said that the reconstruction of Ukraine will cost more than 1,000 trillion yen.
We could put money into everything that could be effective in deterring and possibly preventing a Taiwan contingency.
The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations has said that a Taiwan contingency may occur in 2023, and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has also noted that a Taiwan contingency may happen sooner than expected.
Once war breaks out, it will be severe.
It is said that those who prevent crises from happening cannot be heroes, but a nation does not need heroes.
It would be much cheaper and safer to secure an adequate defense budget and prevent war from occurring, regardless of the criticism that may be leveled at us at the moment.
Sakurai
The war in Ukraine has changed Japan's defense debate in a big way.
Japan's awakening has been slower than Germany's, but Japan will surely awaken and achieve constitutional reform, and politicians who fail to do so will be voted out of office.
(Interviewer: Makiko Takita / Composition: Kenryo Mizokami)
2023/1/3, at Kiyomizu-dera
