Seven rules for forecasting

Future Tense: 『Paul Saffo on rules for forecasting』
Paul Saffo（Director and Roy Amara Fellow,Institute For The Future）による将来予測のコツに関するスピーチの紹介。とても示唆に富んだ内容。Paul Saffoについて、フォローしていく。

Rule 1. Know when not to make a forecast.
Rule 2. Overnight successes come out of twenty years of failure.
Rule 3. Look back twice as far as forward.
Rule 4. Hunt for prodromes.
Rule 5. Be indifferent.
Rule 6. Tell a story or, better, draw a map.
Rule 7. Prove yourself wrong.

Rule 2. Overnight successes come out of twenty years of failure.

The second, which I hadn't thought about as much, was the difference in planning errors depending on where you were in the curve. I'm used to thinking only in terms of the tendency to overestimate how fast things will happen in the early stages of development. I've been less tuned in to the equally likely tendency to underestimate speed and demand changes past the tipping point.

＃関連リンク
『Paul Saffo』
『Institute for the Future (IFTF)』
＃関連エントリー
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『Sensing & Acting on Weak Signals：shiba blog』
『Innovation, Discontinuity and Weak Signals：shiba blog』
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『本日買った本「「Sカーブ」が不確実性を克服する」：shiba blog』
『ビジネスにおける法則性の捉え方：shiba blog』
『気になる本「情報社会学序説」：shiba blog』
『New Twist in the S-Curve：shiba blog』