EMUドミノ倒し懸念 2

2010-04-28 16:48:09 | Telegraph (UK)
"There are some senior figures who would like so see the gangrenous leg of Greece chopped off, to set an example. But they want to avoid leaving any German fingerprints on the blood-stained knife," he said.


It is far from clear whether Athens will agree to further austerity as strikes hit the country day after day. Andreas Loverdos, Greece's labour minister, said the EU-IMF team wants further wages cuts. "We cannot accept that."

ギリシャのAndreas Loverdos労働相によれば、EU・IMF陣営は追加賃金削減を求めている。

Greece knows it can opt for default at any time, setting off an EMU-wide crisis and bringing down Europe's banks. It also knows that key figures in the Bundestag favour debt restructuring.


"Those who chased high yield by purchasing Greek debt must share the costs," said Volker Wissing, chair of Bundestag's finance committee. Leo Dautzenberg from the Christian Democrats said banks should prepare for a `haircut' of up to 50pc.

「ギリシャ債を買い付けて高利回りを狙った連中は負担を分かち合わなければならない」とドイツ議会金融委員会のVolker Wissing議長は言った。
キリスト教民主同盟のLeo Dautzenberg議員は、銀行は最高50%の「ヘアカット」に備えなければならないと述べた。

The ECB, Brussels, and the IMF have been fighting feverishly to head off such a move, fearing a financial chain-reaction.


Julian Jessop from Capital Economics said investors have been too complacent about the EMU crisis. "This could pose as big a risk to the global economy and financial markets as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. In some respects the wider fall-out might even be worse," he said.


The world has already used up its fiscal and monetary ammunition. What happens if there is a fresh shock?




EMUドミノ倒し懸念 1

2010-04-28 16:47:39 | Telegraph (UK)
EMU domino fears as Spain downgraded, Germany drags feet on rescue
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Berlin
Telegraph:28 Apr 2010
German leaders have agreed in principle to a rescue package of up to €135bn for Greece in emergency talks with EU and IMF officials, but failed to offer any clarity on the conditions for such aid.


Hopes for a respite for Southern Europe's battered bond markets were quickly dashed as Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain.


Rainer Brüderle, Germany's economy minister, said the Greek bail-out would be much larger than first thought, acknowledging that Greece cannot hope to tap the private debt markets for three years.


The heads of the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund made a joint pilgrimage to Berlin, pleading with lawmakers in the Bundestag to throw their full weight behind rescue efforts before the chain-reaction spreads to Portugal and the rest of the EMU periphery. Their presence as supplicants in Berlin marks the symbolic moment when Germany appears the undisputed master of Europe.


Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's chief, said the stability of the eurozone itself is in danger. "We need to act swiftly and strongly," he said.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel once again refused to give concrete assurances, leaving the markets as wary as ever over the real intentions of Berlin. "This is about the stability of the euro overall, and we won't avoid this responsibility. But the challenge is for Greece to accept an ambitious program," she said.


"Europe risks the biggest coordination failure in modern history," said David Simmonds, research chief at RBS. The Berlin talks are as vague as ever. "We believe that markets will remain very sceptical."


UBS said it was disturbed by signs of counterparty fears among European banks that replicate events in credit derivatives before the financial crisis in late 2008. "Investors will need to be on their guard," it said.


The Greek debt market came close to disintegration yesterday. Yields on two-year bonds rose briefly to 38pc. "This no longer has anything to do with interest rates: it is a forward contract on the return of the Greek Drachma," said Charles Dumas, head of Lombard Street Research.


Markets are already looking beyond Greece to Portugal where spreads on 10-year bonds rose to 330 points -- higher than the level that first prompted Athens to invoke aid -- before falling back on pledges of further austerity.


Premier Jose Socrates is to bring welfare cuts planned for 2011 and 2012, accepting that the markets will not give Portugal another year to tackle its deficit of 9.4pc of GDP.


S&P cut Spanish debt one notch to AA with a negative outlook, warning that the fall-out from the housing bust will keep the country trapped in near slump until 2016. It said private sector debt of 178pc of GDP was a major concern.


Daniel Cohn-Bendit, leader of the European Greens, said Europe's handling of the crisis had been "catastrophic" and rebuked Germany for resorting the "discipline of the whip".


But Mrs Merkel is treading on eggshells. She faces a crucial election in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 9 that will decide control of the Bundesrat, and risks a court challenge if any rescue breaches the EU's no `bail-out clause'. David Marsh, author of `The Euro: The Politics of the New Global Currency` said the moment of truth has come when Germany must decide whether to accept the burden of propping up Europe's southern ring or let Greece fail and endanger its strategic investment in Europe's post-War order.

『The Euro: The Politics of the New Global Currency』の著者デイヴィッド・マーシュ氏は、真実の瞬間は、ドイツが南部ヨーロッパを支える負担を受け入れるか、ギリシャを破綻させてヨーロッパの戦後秩序への戦略的投資を危機にさらすかを決断しなければならない時に訪れるだろう、と語った。



ノンチェ・プロブレーマの精神最強 2

2010-04-27 16:46:46 | Telegraph (UK)
"It is quite likely that a haircut of, say, 20pc to 25pc will be imposed on creditors as parts of the deal," he said.


The bond markets are already "pricing in" a default of some kind in Greece, where rates on 2-year debt spiked close to 15pc in panic trading yesterday. The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund both insist that restructuring is out of the question but investors have become cynical after months of EU rhetoric and foot-dragging by Berlin.


The ECB cannot lightly risk a second sovereign crisis erupting, with dangers of a spillover into Spain.


The exposure of Spanish-based banks to Portuguese debt exceeds $80bn, according to the Bank for International Settlements. There were early signs of strain in the Spanish banking system yesterday.


Banks were forced to pay a premium in the domestic "repo" market on fears of counterparty risk, although the Bank of Spain has so far won plaudits for ensuring that banks have large safety buffers.


It is unclear why the markets are becoming skittish over Italian bonds. Public debt is 115pc of GDP but this is offset by very low household debt.


Italian citizens are among the most frugal savers in the OECD club of rich states. Moreover, the government has weathered the financial crisis with a budget deficit in remarkable good health.





ノンチェ・プロブレーマの精神最強 1

2010-04-27 16:46:23 | Telegraph (UK)
ECB may have to turn to 'nuclear option' to prevent Southern European debt collapse
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Telegraph:27 Apr 2010
The European Central Bank may soon have to invoke emergency powers to prevent the disintegration of southern European bond markets, with ominous signs of investor flight from Spain and Italy.


Greece's fortunes were dealt yet another blow as Standard & Poor's slashed its credit rating to junk status - BB+ - the first time that has happened to a euro member since the single currency was created, pushing yields on 10-year Greek bonds up to a record 9.73pc.


The credit-rating agency also cut Portugal's sovereign debt ratings by two notches to A-, as the swirling storm hit the country with full-force.


"We have gone past the point of no return," said Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland."There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day.


"The ECB has been side-lined in the Greek crisis so far but do you allow a bond crash in your region if you are the lender-of-last resort? They may have to act as contagion spreads to larger countries such as Italy. We started to see the first glimpse of that today."


Mr Cailloux said the ECB should resort to its "nuclear option" of intervening directly in the markets to purchase government bonds.


This is prohibited in normal times under the EU Treaties but the bank can buy a wide range of assets under its "structural operations" mandate in times of systemic crisis, theoretically in unlimited quantities.


Mr Cailloux added: "This feels like the banking crisis in late 2008 post-Lehman, though it has not yet spread to other asset classes. The ECB will have to act it if does."


Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds spiked 48 basis points to 5.67pc, replicating the pattern seen as the Greek crisis started.


Portugal's public debt will be just 84pc of GDP by the end of this year, far lower than that of Greece, at 124pc. However, its private debt is much higher and data from the IMF shows that its external debt position is worse.


Interest payments on foreign debt will be 8pc of GDP this year. Portugal's net international investment position is minus 100pc of GDP, the worst in the eurozone.


The interest rate on a €9.5bn (£8.2bn) issue of Italian notes jumped to 0.814pc, up from 0.568pc in March. The bid-to-cover ratio was wafer-thin, falling to 1.02. Italy has the world's third biggest debt in absolute terms.


The issue of the ECB buying bonds is a political minefield. Any such action would inevitably be viewed in Germany as a form of printing money to bail out Club Med debtors, and the start of a slippery slope towards in an "inflation union".


But the ECB may no longer have any choice. There is a growing view that nothing short of a monetary blitz — or "shock and awe" on the bonds markets — can halt the spiral under way.


The markets are already looking beyond the €40bn to €45bn joint rescue for Greece by the IMF and the EU, questioning whether some form of debt restructuring or managed default can be avoided over the next year or two, or even whether the rescue plan can work at all in a country trapped in debt deflation with no way out through devaluation.


Professor Willem Buiter, a former member of Britain's Monetary Policy Committee and now global economist for Citigroup, said there may need to be a "voluntary restructuring" of debt.





2010-04-27 16:44:24 | Telegraph (UK)
Germany refuses to help Greece unless it agrees to tougher terms
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Edmund Conway
Telegraph:25 Apr 2010
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schauble has raised fresh obstacles to the €40bn (£35bn) aid package for Greece, warning that Berlin will not transfer funds until Athens agrees to tougher terms.


Mr Schauble said no decision had yet been taken by Berlin or the European Union and that the outcome may yet be "negative". "It depends entirely on whether Greece goes through with the strict austerity in coming years," he told Bild Zeitung.

「全ては、ギリシャが今後数年間に厳格な緊縮政策をまっとう出来るかどうかにかかっている」と財務相はBild Zeitung紙に語った。

George Papaconstantinou, Greece's finance minister, insisted in Washington that the Germans were "completely on board" and that other EU states and the International Monetary Fund would provide a bridging loan if necessary. He said funds "will lose their shirts" if they have taken short bets on Greek debt. "I want to categorically state that any restructuring is off the table."


Mr Papaconstantinou also warned that other EMU states with big debts could fall foul of the markets. "What we are talking about is not merely a Greek problem. There are broader issues around the eurozone."


Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the IMF, said everybody involved "recognises the need for speed. We are all aware of the seriousness of the situation and the courageous efforts being made by the Greek people."


Mr Schauble will meet Bundestag leaders today (Monday) amid rising doubts among Free Democrats (FDP) and Bavaria's Social Christians (CSU) over the wisdom of open-ended help.


Hermann Otto Solm, finance expert for the FDP, said Berlin must clarify the limits to any aid. "Our party is very concerned that it is not going to be a one-off rescue, but will turn into continuous, automatic help for any country that ends up like Greece. That we cannot accept," he said.

FDPの財政専門家、Hermann Otto Solmによれば、ドイツ政府は全ての支援の限度を明確にしなければならない。

Hans-Peter Freidrich, head of the CSU group, said Greece should "seriously consider leaving the eurozone".

CSUのHans-Peter Freidrich代表は、ギリシャは「ユーロ圏離脱を真剣に検討」すべきだと言う。

Italy's finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, said Germany must stop dragging its feet. "If your neighbour's house catches fire, it's not to your ­advantage to sit back and do nothing. You cannot fool ­yourself into thinking that just ­because your house is bigger and more beautiful, that it won't be at risk. In case you are wondering, I am speaking about Germany," he said.


Berlin's hard line is in part theatre to soothe voters before the regional vote in North-Rhine Westphalia on May 9. The EU/IMF bail-out is deeply unpopular in the industrial belt of the Ruhr. But Mr Schauble is also worried about a court challenge over breach of the EU's no bail-out clause.


He stressed that any rescue would be to defend "the stability of the euro", and would not be triggered until EMU was under systemic threat. Such circumstances would permit emergency aid.