ぼやかせていただいております。

China is now a more confident, more repressive authoritarian state than it was before Xi.

2018年03月18日 02時56分22秒 | Weblog





What’s not in question is that Xi wants to increase his country’s clout, to show the world that his model of government is a worthy alternative to those of the West. Despite American resistance, Xi shows no sign of backing away from his efforts to dominate in the South and East China Seas. He has also extended his country’s influence to the south and west, all the way to Pakistan, with his efforts to build infrastructure in developing nations.Xi believes the world should accommodate China, not the other way around. He shows no interest in deposing North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, despite Pyongyang’s nuclear antics, and will likely respond in kind to any American trade protections, like the ones the U.S. announced for steel and aluminum in early March.

After a decade of dithering, China is also finally trying to carry out some painful and necessary economic reforms. Some of Xi’s supporters believe he needs more time and more authority to implement them. The Chinese president may realize it’s going to take a while to reduce his country’s debt, which will lead to a slowdown in growth. Maybe he wants to manage that process.

This is the most optimistic view of the party’s announcement: that eventually, if the economy is humming and has a lower debt burden, perhaps Xi can hand over power to a designated successor and be remembered as a hero. Such a scenario is possible. But it assumes the Chinese leader is willing to oversee such a sustained and painful economic transition. It also assumes he’d ever give up power.In the West, many analysts seemed jaded after Beijing’s announcement—especially those who had hoped China would reform politically as its economy prospered (just as South Korea and Taiwan had in the 1980s). These observers finally seem to be accepting reality. China is now a more confident, more repressive authoritarian state than it was before Xi. His increased crackdown on anyone critical of the government, as well as his use of internet censorship and technology to monitor citizens the regime deems troublesome, are here to stay. And may even increase.Despite China’s economic successes, there are still millions in the country who want more political freedom. But under this regime, they have no voice—and won’t, it appears, for a long time. At 64 years old, the apparently healthy Xi isn’t going anywhere.He’s now, most likely, China’s emperor for life.

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