Trump must demand that North Korea come clean about all its nuclear programs.

2018年06月10日 22時26分12秒 | Weblog
Trump must get North Korea to come completely clean
By Editorial Board
June 9 at 2:19 PM


The Cold War cleanup shows that full disclosure is critical. Mr. Trump must demand that North Korea come clean about all its nuclear programs, as well as chemical and biological weapons research and development. For a secretive police state, this is sure to be painful. Mr. Trump must also pay attention to the people. It is not possible to wipe out the knowledge and experience gained by engineers and scientists; extra attention should be given to making sure they do not spread the know-how, or resume the work in secret. And absolutely essential are ironclad verification methods, so there is no forgotten plutonium discovered in a mountain later on.

冷戦時代の経験からすると、十全な開示が決め手で、トランプ氏は、北朝鮮が、核開発 および、生物化学兵器の研究開発について、すべて申告するように要求することが必須だ。また、研究者に注意を払うことも須要。技術者や科学者の知識を一掃することは不可能ーしたがって、その専門技能が拡散しないよう、また、秘密裏に研究を続けることがないように注意を払わなければならない。とりわけ、厳密な検証を課することも、絶対不可欠で、あとで、山の中で、プルトニウムがみつかりました、などということがないようにしなければならない



What does your government want you to see?

2018年06月10日 21時06分55秒 | Weblog

The Whitehouse

Sarah Sanders

the German government

Canada / Photographer to Prime Minister Trudeau. Ginger.

Japanese prime minister

トランプ氏に詰めよったのは…? G7写真、各国の事情


2018年06月10日 20時54分06秒 | Weblog
2018.6.10 13:17
北、貿易 安倍首相が議論主導 欧米間の「裁定役」 トランプ大統領も「シンゾー、どう思う? 」




” Japanese people are polite and reasonable but We will not be pushed around”

2018年06月10日 20時34分43秒 | Weblog
push around
・You enjoy pushing me around [about] because I'm a kid. : ぼくが子どもだからいじめて楽しんでるんでしょ。
・Quit pushing me around [about]. : こき使うのはやめてくれ

Macron gets the upper hand! French president grips Trump's digits so hard they turn PALE and are left with a thumb print - before giving a cheeky wink after waiting 11 months to exact revenge for that VERY cringeworthy shake in Paris



Trump instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique

Later Saturday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would with "absolute certainty" impose retaliatory measures on July 1 to answer Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. He said the argument that Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum are a matter of national security are "kind of insulting." Trudeau said Canadians are nice but added, "We will not be pushed around."
"I will always protect Canadian workers and Canadian interests," Trudeau said.

The remarks prompted Trump to accuse Trudeau of making "false statements" and to say the United States would not endorse the G7 communique.
"Based on Justin's false statements at his news conference, and the fact that Canada is charging massive Tariffs to our U.S. farmers, workers and companies, I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!," the President tweeted on Saturday.





Nicholas Kristof would rather wait until all the prisoners in North Korean gulags have died

2018年06月10日 17時50分44秒 | Weblog
North Korea, Trump and Human Rights
Nicholas Kristof
By Nicholas Kristof
Opinion Columnist

June 9, 2018

As President Trump prepares to meet Kim Jong-un in Singapore, the focus is rightly on nuclear weapons. But let’s not forget something else: North Korea is by far the most totalitarian country in the world.

Trump should make clear to Kim that what makes a nation “modern” is not just McDonald’s franchises, but also an end to torture and a measure of freedom.

A United Nations report on North Korea in 2014 described “systematic, widespread and gross human rights violations” and added that in this respect North Korea “does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.”

North Koreans have told me how the police periodically turn off all the power in an apartment building, thus locking any video or DVD inside the machine playing it. Then the police search unit by unit to see what is in the machines — and if it is, say, a South Korean soap opera, then the entire family may be shuttled off to a labor camp.

“In my opinion, conditions in North Korean labor camps are as severe and brutal as the Nazi camps were,” said Thomas Buergenthal, who served on an International Bar Association panel investigating North Korean prisons and is himself a survivor of Auschwitz.

My own view is that the priority for now should be the nuclear weapons issue and that we shouldn’t make improvements in human rights a condition of those talks for fear of causing them to collapse. But I also believe that Trump can and should explain to Kim that his regime will never be fully respected unless it improves on human rights and accounts for Japanese citizens kidnapped over the years.





Reinforce a Norm in Syria
Nicholas Kristof
Nicholas Kristof AUG. 28, 201

But when I was last in Syria, in November, I met a grandma who had already lost her husband, her son and her daughter-in-law to the Assad regime. She was living in her fifth home that year, a leaky tent, wondering who would die next, and like everyone was desperate for international support. “We ask for God’s help in ending this, and Obama’s,” she said.

What do we tell her? That we don’t have the stomach to help her? That we’d rather wait until all her grandkids have died and the death toll has reached hundreds of thousands and embarrassed us to take firmer action?

North Korea's Nightmare Prison Camps Revealed in Terrifying New Report
Ryan Pickrell
October 26, 2017

Those who die are the lucky ones,” Lim Hye-jin, the first former female guard to speak openly about her experiences, introduced earlier this year. She described rape, torture, abuse, and public executions. In one instance, a guard set a woman on fire because she annoyed him. Lim revealed that once, when two brothers broke out of prison, the prison guards murdered seven of their family members on the spot, and numerous other prisoners were beaten severely. After they were recaptured, the two brothers were beheaded.
“The two brothers were beheaded in front of everyone,” she explained. “They called everyone to watch as a warning not to flee. The other prisoners then had to throw stones at them.”

Critique From an Obama Fan
Nicholas Kristof
By Nicholas Kristof
Sept. 10, 2014

His “red line” about chemical weapons turned out to be more like a penciled suggestion

A 17-year-old Yazidi girl told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica in a phone call that she was being kept by ISIS as a sex slave along with many others. The newspaper got her cellphone number from her parents, who are in a refugee camp.

“They treat us as if we are their slaves,” the newspaper quoted the girl as saying. “The men hit us and threaten us when we try to resist. Often I wish that they would beat me so severely that I would die.

So let’s move ahead with eyes wide open. We’ve seen the perils of Obama’s inaction, and let’s now avoid the perils of excessive action



They’ll get a fine-sounding rhetorical but it will be a nothingburger on what really matters

2018年06月10日 16時56分28秒 | Weblog
Robert E Kelly

Sitting around on my BKK lay-over to SIN, so here are some predictions for Trump-Kim. We should all go on the record now, before saying I told you so next week. So here goes:

1. Face-saving movement only on denuclearization.

Team Trump has talked up CVID so much, as have US /1

, that I have the feeling that they’ll get a fine-sounding rhetorical commitment, and maybe a few missile surrendered or some sites closures. It’ll be awfully embarrassing after so much CVID hype if Trump gets nothing, so I figure there’s some /2

5th time around on whether a sub-CVID outcome on N Korea is tolerable. @FitzpatrickIISS tries one last time to ask this important question in the last #SLD18 plenary. Hooray for trying. cc: @nktpnd https://twitter.com/robert_e_kelly/status/1003112557425582081 …

backchannel for something. But it will be more face-saving for Trump than a genuinely irreversible step. And certainly not CVID.

2. Trump will hype this relentlessly, no matter what comes of it.

This is so easy to see coming that it probably shouldn’t even count as a /3

prediction. But increasingly, I think the real point of this for Trump, given how unlikely CVID is, is for him to market this thing as something extraordinary for his voters back home – a yuge win for the midterms. They’ll believe anything he tells them, so he just needs /4

something, anything, and this becomes the greatest deal in intergalactic history. The fear is that Trump might give up too much just to get that win: https://twitter.com/ajmount/status/1004704418158309378 ….

3. Trump will not walk out.

This would be hugely insulting before the global media and fire hawks /5

The North Koreans won't improvise constraints on themselves. The question now is: how much will the president impulsively give up to make Singapore look like a big win? https://twitter.com/AmbassadorRice/status/1004698639724371968 …

in Pyongyang to give up absolutely nothing for a decade. Even Trump must get that. This is bluster.

4. The talks will be short and have little to do with the real issues, because Trump gets bored easily and didn’t prepare, so he’ll have no idea what is going on in the room. /6

5. It will be a media circus.

Again, so easy to foresee, it probably shouldn’t count as a prediction: https://twitter.com/Robert_E_Kelly/status/1001243446928031744 …. The spectacle will be overwhelming, crowd out the substance, and will be supplemented by Rodman, Gorka, Hannity, KJU impersonators, Trump-Kim burgers /7

No way! I’m shocked! I figured a couple of Trump threats and some zany shenanigans, and that’d be a wrap. Was getting pretty excited for the de-nuke White House coin! Who knew diplomacy-ing was so hard? https://twitter.com/grecianformula/status/1001125981028061185 …

6. There will be no peace treaty.

The clown show has started, and they aren't even there yet. I'm pretty sure Hannity, Gorka, and Rodman will bring some dignity to the proceedings though... https://twitter.com/Steven_Okun/status/1004639357242765313 …

with everything about this summit, this was too rushed, and Trump is too lazy and checked out from his own presidency's policy detail, for something this momentous to be wrapped up in a just a few months. /9

7. In brief, it will be a nothingburger on what really matters: nukes, missiles, human rights, normalization, etc.: https://twitter.com/Robert_E_Kelly/status/1005231733846003713 …. The real work afterward will get kicked back to Moon Jae-In, Mike Pompeo, and staff. Kinda makes you wonder why we doing this at all... END



Talks between America and North Korea might succeed—at a terrible price

2018年06月10日 16時48分55秒 | Weblog

[uh b-strep-er-uh s]
SynonymsExamplesWord Origin
See more synonyms on Thesaurus.com
resisting control or restraint in a difficult manner; unruly.
noisy, clamorous, or boisterous:

The economist
Talks between America and North Korea might succeed—at a terrible price
Would Donald Trump sell America’s allies down the river?
Jun 7th 2018 | BEIJING and SEOUL

Instead, one theory holds, Mr Kim will offer Mr Trump a choice: either an immediate scrapping of missiles capable of hitting America, or a slower, step-by-step programme of the sort previously attempted, leading to the eventual dismantling of the North’s nuclear programme. That would be a trap, albeit an open one. In all likelihood, the step-by-step process would go the way its predecessors have, with North Korea benefiting from the easing of sanctions before pulling out in time to preserve its nuclear capacity. One possible fudge (and source of future disputes) would be for the North to give up nuclear weapons but to retain nuclear facilities that could be depicted as civilian. Mr Trump might find a limited deal on missiles appealing, by contrast: it would allow him to say he had kept his promise to protect America.

But a deal of that sort is a nightmare for America’s closest allies in the region, South Korea and Japan, who would be left at the mercy of North Korea’s short- and medium-range missiles, possibly tipped with nuclear bombs. Such bald proof of America’s willingness to sell out its allies, in turn, would alter the strategic balance in Asia in the long run. Friends would begin to question whether America would stand up for them in disputes with China, for example. The natural response would be to hedge bets and to reach an accommodation with China, dramatically diminishing America’s clout in the region.

Even if Mr Trump balks and walks away from negotiations, as he has repeatedly threatened to, America’s interests are likely to suffer. The summit seems bound to dissipate the pressure on the North, especially if it is seen to have failed because of Mr Trump’s obstreperousness. Mr Zhao says that as soon as Mr Trump agreed to meet Mr Kim, America lost the bargaining power painstakingly built up over recent years as international sanctions have tightened. According to Mr Zhao, Chinese officials believe that even if the Kim-Trump talks fall apart, “there is very little chance that the US could now launch a disarming military strike.” South Korea would be the first to protest against any such “bloody nose” attack, and China and Russia would also be loudly opposed, he predicts.

Nor do experts in the region see much chance that North Korea will face additional international sanctions, even if the summit ends in rancour. “North Korea can live with the consequences of a failed summit with all the sanctions staying in place. That’s fine. Sanctions are not going to get tougher,” says Mr Zhao. China, notably, never really believed that sanctions alone could bring about the American goal of forcing North Korea to disarm, and only strengthened them reluctantly.

The South Koreans,” says Mark Fitzpatrick of IISS, an international think-tank, “may well find ways to work around sanctions or interpret them in a way that allows them to re-up economic engagement.”

In other words, Mr Kim has very little to lose from the summit. Mr Trump may feel that he, too, is likely to get good press from the event. But America could come out worse off, even if its president does not.

米朝会談のシナリオー金正恩は、ICBMの破壊か、段階的非核化の提案。段階的非核化だと以前と同じなので、前者。前者だとしかし、核爆弾つきの短距離、中距離ミサイルはそのままなので、北朝鮮のやりたい放題になり、日本韓国には悪夢。 アメリカの信頼は失墜し、中国との紛争でもアメリカは信頼できなくなり、アメリカの地域の地位は失墜。




2018年06月10日 16時10分13秒 | Weblog
Bullies Don’t Win at Diplomacy
President Donald Trump is learning that, just because the United States is powerful, that doesn’t mean it can push other countries around.

via mozu

The first theme is a tendency to view relations with other countries on a purely bilateral and transactional basis, and to judge success or failure solely by whether the United States is getting the better end of the deal in each case. In Trump’s mind, you’re either the con man or you’re the mark, and a successful foreign policy is one where every bilateral relationship works out better for the United States than it does for the other side. If both sides gain equally, or if both sides gain a lot but the other side gets a bit more than the United States does, then it is by definition a bad deal, even if it America better off in absolute terms. Like any good huckster, Trump always wants to get something for nothing, and to be able to tell the American people that he’s somehow persuaded foreigners to make tons of concessions without giving them anything in return. You know: like promising that Mexico will somehow pay for a wall that it doesn’t even want.

The second and closely related theme is a propensity for bullying. Whether he is threatening to tear up existing deals, rain “fire and fury” down on an enemy, or impose tariffs on friend and foe alike, Trump’s diplomatic modus operandi rests on the belief that the United States has a nearly infinite capacity to impose its will on other states by issuing threats. If Trump refuses to reaffirm Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, other states will pay the United States to defend them. If he denounces NAFTA and threatens to leave it, Canada and Mexico will quickly give in to whatever U.S. negotiators demand. If he threatens China with a trade war, President Xi Jinping will leap to do whatever it takes to make Trump happy. And if he tears up the Iran nuclear deal, the ayatollahs won’t dare to resume enrichment and move closer to Russia and China. If he treats longstanding U.S. allies with contempt, ignores their earnest pleas on the Iran deal, and then slaps tariffs on them too, they’ll just meekly accept the humiliation and quietly back down.

The bottom line, therefore, is that few, if any, states are eager to invite the ire of the United States, or even to get into a long, bitter, and protracted arm-wrestling match with it. Like the majority of Americans, current U.S. partners are mostly hoping that Trump will prove to be an unhappy but short-lived moment in U.S. history, rather than a fundamental historical turning point. This would seem to lend credence to Trump’s foreign-policy-by-browbeating approach.




トランプの法則  Trump admires dictators more than he does democratic leaders


2018年06月10日 07時24分59秒 | Weblog
G7ではなく「G6+1」 際立つトランプ氏の孤立ぶり

via mozu


A photo tweeted by the German government spokesman,@RegSprecher, captured the mood, showing a seated Trump, arms crossed, surrounded by other leaders standing over him.

Despite smiles and jokes for the cameras, the tension among the leaders was clear. At one point, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was seen having a brief, intense one-sided conversation with a stony-faced Trump on Friday.

WTO members most involved in disputes 1995-2017

2018年06月10日 05時50分39秒 | Weblog

WTO members most involved in disputes 1995-2017

2018.6.9 10:00
中国の横暴に甘い対応しかとらなかった日米欧 G7は保護主義中国に対して結束せよ


In favor of the Libya model of denuclearization

2018年06月10日 05時38分09秒 | Weblog
PacNet #39 - Rapid Denuclearization Made Economic Sense for Libya – and Could for North Korea, Too
June 8, 2018

Libya experienced two watershed events, separated by seven years, with very different outcomes. The first was Libya’s December 2003 decision to abandon its nuclear and chemical weapons programs. That event led to an economic boom. The second was the Arab Spring in February 2011 and onwards. That event swept up the country and its leader into a destructive maelstrom from which it has yet to recover. The two are not connected in any fundamental way. And both have very different policy implications.

In short, rapid denuclearization supercharged economic activity. No longer was Libya’s economy hamstrung by international sanctions, including US secondary sanctions on foreign firms investing in Libya’s oil sector – until the global recession hit in 2009 and the Arab Spring in early 2011.

The Arab Spring was defined by popular revolts that abruptly rose up against long-entrenched, corrupt and oppressive governments having little or no accountability to their common citizens. This black swan event first toppled the Ben Ali government of Libya’s neighbor on its northwest border, Tunisia, in January 2011. It next dethroned the Hosni Mubarak government of Egypt, Libya’s eastern neighbor. It spread to Libya in February, and by October 2011 Muhamar Qaddafi was killed while on the run from domestic insurgents.

Nuclear weapons are of no use against domestic uprisings. After all, Boris Yeltsin prevailed against forces attempting to prevent the breakup of the USSR in 1991, and the Tiananmen uprising in 1989 took place within the Chinese nuclear state. It was Qadaffi’s lethal suppression of civilian political protestors that prompted the UN Security Council to first sanction regime officials in February 2011 and then to authorize an international response to the Libyan civil war in March 2011. Would a Libya armed with nuclear weapons have intimidated the UN from implementing such sanctions? Unlikely




N.Korea is a paranoid regime where the Kims truly fear their own people

2018年06月10日 05時32分44秒 | Weblog
From ‘Punk Kid’ to 21st Century Tyrant: Kim Jong Un Seizes His Moment
North Korean dictator goes on a diplomatic blitz after saber-rattling won him a coveted nuclear summit with President Donald Trump
By John Lyons
June 8, 2018 10:14 a.m. ET

At home, he is digging in for a long rule by replacing older apparatchiks with younger ones loyal to him. He has killed rival family members, staged public executions and is keeping some 100,000 people in gulags, say United Nations investigators who accused him of crimes against humanity in 2014. He’s had more defense ministers so far than served in all North Korea’s previous 50 years.

South Korean conservatives and U.S. hawks say Mr. Kim has no intention of giving up his weapons, a move he likely equates with suicide. Instead, his charm offensive is meant to reduce the chances the U.S. will attack, persuade China to loosen sanctions enforcement and get South Korea’s progressive government to provide him with food and other aid.

Long-term, he wants to drive a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea, and perhaps one day unify the Korean Peninsula on his terms, these skeptics say.

U.S. officials say they are wary. “No one in the Trump administration is starry-eyed about what’s happening here,” national security adviser John Bolton, a longtime North Korea hard-liner, has said.

North Korea has broken four nuclear deals since 1992, while receiving $1.3 billion in food and oil from the U.S.

“People are going to see him and say, ‘Wow, he is acting like a normal person.’ But he is not a normal person. This is the guy who kills his own family,” said Go Myong-hyun, a North Korea researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

To instill fear, Mr. Kim uses brutal practices such as public executions with antiaircraft guns and imprisoning three generations of a dissenter’s family, according to Greg Scarlatoiu, who runs the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, a Washington, D.C.-based advocacy group.

“This is a highly paranoid regime built on an us-versus-them mentality, where the Kims truly fear their own people,” said Mr. Scarlatoiu, who grew up under Romania’s brutal dictator Nicolae Ceausescu.

Mr. Kim threatened terrorist attacks to prevent Sony Pictures from releasing the 2014 film “The Interview,” in which he is killed by buffoonish reporters. Soon after, hackers broke into Sony’s servers and put embarrassing internal email and unreleased films online. U.S. officials say North Korea is responsible.

But more than his father, Mr. Kim has shown a willingness to kill family.

In 2013, he ordered the execution of his uncle, leaving little question who was in charge.

In 2017, Mr. Kim ordered his half brother and critic, Kim Jong Nam, killed with VX nerve agent in a Malaysian airport, U.S. officials say. The victim carried atropine, a possible VX antidote, suggesting he lived in fear of a foretold fate.

In five years Mr. Kim executed or purged some 340 officials, according to South Korea’s intelligence service.

“At first we were all perplexed why he was chosen,” says Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul. “But then we realized that he is an efficient, rational, Machiavellian dictator, and only an efficient, rational, Machiavellian dictator can rule North Korea, otherwise it will collapse.”

One month later, Mr. Kim added the term “Nuclear State” to the definition of North Korea in its constitution. By the end of that year, the North Korean missile engineers were ready to attempt to launch the rocket again—and it worked.

In Sept., he detonated North Korea’s most powerful nuclear device. In Nov. 2017, North Korea launched the Hwasong-15, an intercontinental missile that flew for 53 minutes with a range of 8,000 miles—enough to hit anywhere in the U.S. Though doubts remain, Mr. Kim declared he had a achieved a “state nuclear force.”

“Our Republic has at last come to possess a powerful and reliable war deterrent, which no force and nothing can reverse,” Mr. Kim said his annual January speech, wearing a business suit instead of a Mao outfit. “The nuclear button is on my office desk all the time.”

Then he offered to deal.


その実、おじさん、義理の兄さんの殺害、公開処刑、粛清、テロによる威嚇、サイバーテロの実践、強制収容、そして、着実に核兵器を開発し、その完成を豪語し、恐怖政治を実行してきた男ー金正恩は、効率的、合理的 マキュベリー的独裁者であり、北朝鮮は、その独裁者が人民を恐れ、エリートと庶民、朝鮮民族とそれ以外などの分断に基づく、偏執狂的国家である、と。