Well, this is part of that great conundrum that Norman Borlaug mentioned when this technology sort of started coming in in the 1970s. There was this great hope that the ability to transfer genes from all these different species would create this, you know - create another Green Revolution. It was going to save us from where we were heading in terms of population and demand. Unfortunately, even though there have been some environmental benefits to GMOs, and they haven't really caused the dramatic health or environmental damage that some of the critics have been worried about, they haven't produced that much yield growth either. So conventionally bred crops are producing just as high a yields as GMOs. We haven't seen any of this sort of dramatic rise that we saw during Borlaug's era, where we got a doubling - almost tripling - of global yield production. It just hasn't happened. So many people are thinking, you know, maybe the yield switch is not one we can genetically manipulate. There's only a certain amount of sunlight coming into plants that can be converted into seed. Maybe we're starting to see this sort of yield cap. And even Borlaug, himself, said that the Green Revolution would only give us sort of 30 years before it would begin to play out. And almost on cue in 2000 - 30 years after he won the Nobel Peace Prize - you started to see our yields start to flatten out.
So we are looking at, you know - as one planet reader at Purdue University said, we're looking at having to grow as much food in the next forty years as we have since agriculture began 10,000 years ago. It is the greatest challenge that humanity has ever faced, and we have to do it without destroying the water, the oceans, the soils, that we all depend on. It's just - it's a staggering challenge. DAVIES: Joel Bourne's book is "The End Of Plenty: The Race To Feed A Crowded World." We'll continue our conversation after a short break. This is FRESH AIR. (SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) DAVIES: This is FRESH AIR. And if you're just joining us, our guest is science writer Joel Bourne. His new book about the challenges of feeding a growing world population is called "The End Of Plenty: The Race To Feed A Crowded World." So let's talk about some ways that we might deal with this challenge and some promising trends that you've identified. You know, decades ago, we had at this Green Revolution, which dramatically increased the productivity of agriculture. And one thing, of course, would be terrific would be if that could happen again. And there's been this progress in genetically modifying seeds and plants. It's very controversial. They're banned in some countries. What's the prospect that that would give us an enormous increase in yield that will help us feed more people?
I want to talk about some other dimensions of the problem and one of them is the amount of arable land that is used to produce biofuels. These are, you know, alternatives to gas or gasoline as we look for more energy sources to run cars and other equipment. To what extent are biofuels, like corn ethanol, a part of the problem here? BOURNE: Sure. Well, this has been a hugely controversial issue because we had these huge subsidy programs from the government that came in to kickstart the biofuel industry. So as soon as energy prices start to go back up, you're going to see rises in grain prices because of this direct connection between fuel and biofuel. DAVIES: The other side of the equation in this problem is how many mouths there will be to feed in coming decades. What trends are we seeing in population growth? BOURNE: Well - and again, this is the scariest thing - the U.N. Population Unit, which provides the basic estimates for population growth that most of the experts look at, you know, has been ramping up its figures, its sort of median figure, for population - world population - by 2050 in the last three estimates. So, you know, 2000 - 2009 we were only supposed to get about Spotlight Company. 2011 - now 9.3 billion. 2012 - now it's up to 9.6 billion. So 9.6 billion people is their median level, which is typically their most accurate, by 2050, rising to almost 11 billion by the end of the century.
So we are looking at, you know - as one planet reader at Purdue University said, we're looking at having to grow as much food in the next forty years as we have since agriculture began 10,000 years ago. It is the greatest challenge that humanity has ever faced, and we have to do it without destroying the water, the oceans, the soils, that we all depend on. It's just - it's a staggering challenge. DAVIES: Joel Bourne's book is "The End Of Plenty: The Race To Feed A Crowded World." We'll continue our conversation after a short break. This is FRESH AIR. (SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) DAVIES: This is FRESH AIR. And if you're just joining us, our guest is science writer Joel Bourne. His new book about the challenges of feeding a growing world population is called "The End Of Plenty: The Race To Feed A Crowded World." So let's talk about some ways that we might deal with this challenge and some promising trends that you've identified. You know, decades ago, we had at this Green Revolution, which dramatically increased the productivity of agriculture. And one thing, of course, would be terrific would be if that could happen again. And there's been this progress in genetically modifying seeds and plants. It's very controversial. They're banned in some countries. What's the prospect that that would give us an enormous increase in yield that will help us feed more people?
I want to talk about some other dimensions of the problem and one of them is the amount of arable land that is used to produce biofuels. These are, you know, alternatives to gas or gasoline as we look for more energy sources to run cars and other equipment. To what extent are biofuels, like corn ethanol, a part of the problem here? BOURNE: Sure. Well, this has been a hugely controversial issue because we had these huge subsidy programs from the government that came in to kickstart the biofuel industry. So as soon as energy prices start to go back up, you're going to see rises in grain prices because of this direct connection between fuel and biofuel. DAVIES: The other side of the equation in this problem is how many mouths there will be to feed in coming decades. What trends are we seeing in population growth? BOURNE: Well - and again, this is the scariest thing - the U.N. Population Unit, which provides the basic estimates for population growth that most of the experts look at, you know, has been ramping up its figures, its sort of median figure, for population - world population - by 2050 in the last three estimates. So, you know, 2000 - 2009 we were only supposed to get about Spotlight Company. 2011 - now 9.3 billion. 2012 - now it's up to 9.6 billion. So 9.6 billion people is their median level, which is typically their most accurate, by 2050, rising to almost 11 billion by the end of the century.
※コメント投稿者のブログIDはブログ作成者のみに通知されます