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○ Oxford Univ' predicts:47%Nothing./オックスフォード大学が大胆予測. 10-20年後、約47%の仕事がなくなる.

2016-10-13 08:07:11 | ♪PFK ASAP NEWS

2016-10-13 08:07:11 directsales.jp.  Oxford univ.


Oxford University announces a bold prediction....20 years later, will about 47 % of person's work disappear from 10?

Does this become a reality really? When I become a reality, when is it?
Statistical data of a government showed Oxford University. 3 of big cause... which takes work away from a person
The one a chance will be or... by which 3 of cause from which why is person's work taken away will increase the income big triple double several years later


", 10-after 20, about 47 % of person's work disappears."

A little, the front. Osborne practical professor of Oxford University announces such bold prediction. I became the big topic of conversation.


The machine technological progress is advancing by remarkable momentum by this investigation. Of automation by the machine, how human work depends, and being taken away or, if, it was analyzed to say. As a result, the risk by which about 47 % of work will be automated in 10 years-about 20 years from now on is high. Such conclusion has gone out.


To be honest, when hearing this talk for the first time, it wasn't believed at all. And even if I became a reality, I thought it was still the previous talk. But when statistical data of a government was checked, I found out that the one taking work away from a person has 3 of big cause. And even if a thing as "... into which work disappears" won't occur immediately by a cause of 3 of this cause, 、、、.


... with the work which falls in value big already

I found out that I say so. Moreover to fall in value big now and moreover.


It's future talk of course, so it can't be guaranteed whether you get this prediction. But this talk was originated with statistical data of Oxford University and a government. So, you, by now, 、、、.


"This work is continued all the while just as it is, and would you like?"


If it has been felt anxiously so, I think it's helpful surely, so please check continuation. (I twisted 3 of cause which takes work away from a person around, and how could I increase the income big in several years? And, you also talk about saying.)


Job listing... which goes out by more than 90 % of probability
Person in charge of loans of the bank
The telephone operator
Lawyer assistant (para-legality)
Reception desk in a hotel
Representative of a tax matter declaration
Clerk of bookkeeping and a bill
Real estate broker
Bleeder of an animal
Clock repair shop
Help one in a library
Painting and wallpaper tension
Worker of garden designing and site management
And all that...
※ Than a thesis of Oxford University Osborne practical professor.



①. The cause which devaluates work big: Excess supply


The one as excess supply is the state that the side to which goods are offered is too increased. A business stands up by sale and supply. When 100 sellers need a market with 10 people when it's calculated simply, there will be 10 consumers per 1 seller. But if 20 people and consumers are 100, a consumer per 1 seller will be 5 people, and a seller does a stripe.


In other words, it's said that the sales are half. If the sales are half, even if most business is lost, it isn't strange.


A seller increases suddenly in such wind. When the way of speaking is changed, when I fall into excess supply, the work to have that is to take out the profit on the business difficultly and is the one with the recessive income.


And there is work for the so-called therapeutist of a judo reduction teacher and a manual therapeutics teacher as a concrete instance of the work this excess supply is advancing one after another.


The numbers of bonesetting in were 25,975 stores in 2002, I increase rapidly in 42,431 stores in 2012. It's 1.6 times for 10 years (the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare: Heisei Than the general condition of 24 year sanitary administrative example of reports (starting work medical expert)). This is the number more numerous than total of 41,085 stores of 7-Eleven, LAWSON and Familymart Co., Ltd. of 3 convenience store largest companies. Moreover I'm increasing rapidly so that you also say that this may exceed 100,000 stores in the number only of bonesetting in when manual therapeutics in includes it. It's surprise, isn't it?


A beauty salon and a dentist's office fall an oversupply more than a convenience store, and are also in the situation almost similar to a therapeutist.

Work is being also seized with a wave of excess supply in other ones and for the teachers called a so-called man trade. For example 、、、.


CPAs were 16656 in 2000, but it's increasing more than 2 times with 33977 people in 2014 and....
An administrative scrivener increases for 44,057 people from 37,607 people during 2005-2014.
26,460 per 10 years public consultants on social and labor insurance are empty (in 2005), in 38,878 people (2014) and 1.46 times....
69,243 per 10 years licensed tax accountants are empty (in 2005), too, 74,501 people (2014)
A judicial scrivener is increasing from 18,509 people to 21,658 people during 2015 from 2006....

It increases in the number of the qualification person big all in such wind. Moreover this momentum doesn't still seem stop. When it's being, excess supply is so increasingly developed, and work would fall in value big.




②. The cause which devaluates work big: Technical innovation





The 2nd is technical innovation.


Google and Yahoo which appeared by technology's of the internet developing into technical innovation, optimistic, the good face where many star enterprises were established Amazon is often emphasized. But the, there is also a front page where work is taken away from many people on the other hand.


I had to take a film to a photographer before to develop a picture when I said by a plain example. So there was work to develop a picture. But most of demand has died of that a digital camera appeared.


This new technology is that it's good to take work away from a person.


Technical innovation occurs, and there is an industry in the one by which the danger in which work diminishes big is rising. Because not a person, but a robot will work when robot-ization of a manufacturing process is being developed.


Even if a web designer doesn't understand Html and a programming, either, web service like Wix and Jimdo where a home page can be made appears in the back. It itself is of low value and being to say "A home page can be made.", and when more technology will develop now, when not adding extra value with the high design, a possibility which is becoming severe is probably becoming high.


Cheap service of Gengo appears and is causing price slashing in the world of translating business, but a possibility which is being seized with a wave of technical innovation would be high so that a further attack may be applied when I think technology of the automatic translation system represented by Google translation is developed.




③. Change in behavior of the cause: consumer who devaluates work big


The 3rd is a change in consumer's behavior.


It's a retail store to undergo influence by a change in this consumer's behavior. When I say whether you had that, a change in what kind of behavior will be that you could look now for the least expensive store immediately nationwide immediately using a net?


Specifically, price dot com. "It's an inexpensive net to see goods by a storefront and buy it actually" by appearance of such site, as if, consumer's behavior was big and we changed. As a result, I have fallen into the situation that even YAMADA DENKI which is the largest company in a mass sales store of home electronics sinks in the deficit of 1:00 of 4,100,000,000 yen.





Besides the bookstore where 21,495 bookstores which keep a store were here by 2013 from 2000 has also even decreased in 14,241 cases by influence of Amazon (1/about 3 has disappeared. It's wonderful..), isn't it?. It's apart from the newspaper which are young people because news can be checked easily with a net, the newspaper industry said that who doesn't stop. The decrease by which the newspaper industry's total sales are 519,800,000,000 yen during 2013 from 2005. The sales of the 21.5% will be missing during a little less than 10 years....


A change in consumer's behavior also has a big influence on a business in such wind.


When work has fallen in value....

A possibility that 、、、 will be the very severe distance to raise the income to work which applies to 3 of cause which devaluates the work I just introduced is high. It's 、、、 to try to raise the income to the work which falls in value even if the person how much to do excellent does the effort which is exceedingly.


The escalator which is descent if it's compared, running desperately.


Even if I'm running hard, how much will you just rest for a short while and go down immediately? When not keeping running desperately, it's also difficult to maintain the current state. Such situation. But 、、、.


... which changes the cause which devaluates work to the chance to raise the income


The cause which devaluates this work actually isn't only a bad thing. It's said that the environment of the business is changing into this. And this change has invented a big business chance by now.


For example the bookstore which has a store by appearance of a net, 1/about 3 has disappeared, the, on the other hand, a star enterprise as Amazon was produced. The fashion of SUMAHOGEMU which even drove Nintendo into the deficit at 1:00. The SUMAHOGEMU was that it came into fashion, and MOBAGE grew into large enterprise with a professional baseball baseball team. By the internet's also appearing on other ones by technical innovation, Yahoo and, optimistic such as many star enterprises appeared. An IT bubble economy is called and a lot of billionaires are going to produce, too.







2016-10-13 08:07:11 directsales.jp.  Oxford univ.



  • これは本当に現実になるのか?現実になるとすれば、いつなのか?
  • オックスフォード大学と政府の統計データなどからわかった。人から仕事を奪う3つの大きな原因…
  • なぜ、人の仕事を奪う3つの原因が、数年後に収入を2倍、3倍に大きく増やすチャンスなるのか… 































接骨院の数は2002年には25,975店舗だったのですが、2012年には42,431店舗に急増。10年で1.6倍になってます(厚生労働省:平成 24 年衛生行政報告例(就業医療関係者)の概況より)。これは、コンビニ最大手3社のセブン・イレブン、ローソン、ファミリーマートの店舗数の合計41,085店舗よりも多い数です。しかも、これは接骨院だけの数で、整体院なども含めると10万店舗を超えるのではないか、ともいわれるほど急増しているのです。びっくりですよね。





  • 公認会計士は、2000年には、16656人でしたが、2014年には、33977人と2倍以上に増えていますし…
  • 行政書士は、2005年~2014年の間に37,607人から44,057人に増加
  • 社会保険労務士は、10年で26,460人(2005年)から38,878人(2014年)と1.46倍に…
  • 税理士も、10年で69,243人(2005年)から74,501人(2014年)
  • 司法書士は、2006年から2015年の間に、18,509人から21,658人まで増えています…













































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