ABC on Latin America



2017-06-30 19:11:23 | 日記

「"万年"中所得地域と揶揄されるラ米が、高所得地域になるための処方箋」(Forever Middle-Income Region Latin America's Agenda for Escaping the Middle-Income Trap)のトピックの続きです。














また、社会支出を維持するためには税収の強化が重要である。ラ米の税基盤は一般的に非常に脆弱で、税システムの大半(とくに付加価値税VAT)は、OECD諸国と比べて逆累進である。高い脱税率も問題であろう。累進的な税制導入により、脱税を減らすことができるだけでなく、貧困層を救うことができ、格差の是正を図ることができよう。また、税基盤の拡大には、労働力をフォーマル・セクターに取り込むことが必須である (この点については次のブログでより詳しく)。



All these cases show that, regardless of the varying levels of fiscal management discipline, the provisions made during the bonanza decade have resulted to be insufficient to face the current global economic downturn. Obviously, countries like Venezuela and Argentina need to learn that social expenditure cannot entirely depend on commodity windfalls; hence the need of provisions. The first step for them would be to introduce stabilization fund and fiscal rules to put an end to their classic macroeconomic problems mentioned earlier. Moreover, statist economic models of Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia are showing its limitation at this difficult juncture. Probably, it is imperative to improve their investment climate and open their economies to more private investment.

Finally, these countries need to implement more flexible monetary policies to equip themselves with more competitive exchange rates.

More important, current difficulties faced even by the better performing economies suggest the limitation of the commodity-dependent economic model which is pervasive especially in South America. Dependency on commodity causes several issues including Dutch Disease and large drops in export
earnings and terms of trade during the low commodity prices periods. It also tends to induce volatile exchange rates, which hinders investment and growth. Thus, LAC, in general, must diversify its economy away from commodity to lessen dependence on external business cycle to smooth boom and bust cycles.

This would also induce job creation which has resulted to be the strongest tool for reducing inequality across the region during the last decade. I recommend a value addition of the natural resources sectors. Especially, high-value and differentiated food products such as wines, organic, and functional foods could
attract high demands from the emerging middle-income class, both inside and outside the region.

Furthermore, social spending should also come from strengthening tax revenue. LAC, in general, has a very weak tax base, and most tax systems, particularly value-added tax, are regressive compared with those in the OECD nations. And high tax evasion has been an issue. Implementation of progressive tax policies would both lessen tax evasion and help the poor, and thus, reducing inequality. Moreover, incorporating the labor force into the formal sector is essential to broaden the tax base (discussed later).  

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