ぼやかせていただいております。

危険が不安に負けるわけ 

2017年05月14日 09時06分43秒 | Weblog
福島や豊洲は、比較的安全でも不安で、交通事故は、危険でも比較的安心している。

そして、






Risk perception (pdf) used to be based on an analytical equation: you multiply the probability of an event by the potential damage of its outcome. But Paul Slovic, a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon, understood the powerful role of emotions in decision-making and altered that equation, noting that many things affect how we perceive risk:
do you trust the person you are dealing with
control vs. lack of control (lack of control inflates risk perceptions)
is it catastrophic or chronic (catastrophic inflates risk perceptions)
does it incite dread or anger (dread inflates risk perceptions)
uncertainty (lack of knowledge about something inflates risk perceptions)
“Most people do not distinguish well between a one-in-a-thousand risk and a one-in-a-million risk,” said Mark Egan, an associate advisor at the Behavioral Insights Group in London.


Rothschild blamed politicians for overstating the terrorist risk. Media saturation is also to blame. Having ready access to images of every atrocity known to mankind makes us prone to what behavioral scientists call “availability bias,” the tendency to give weight to what comes to mind most easily. The blanket coverage of the Sept. 11th attacks successfully seared the images of terrorism on our brains; shootings, which happen every day and—with the exception of a few mass shootings—are largely ignored, have less of an effect.
“We over-react to visible threats,” said Max Bazerman, co-director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School, and an expert on decision-making.


客観的な事象が起きる確率や被害の大きさよりも、主観的な感情が人間の行動の行方を左右してしまうわけだが、その事象が、コントロールしやすいか、否か、恒常的か、破局的か 引き起こされる感情が、恐怖か、怒りか、予測可能か不可か、世間でセンセーショナルに取り上げられているか否かによって、不安度が増大するのだ、と。
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